2024 United States presidential election in New York
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Elections in New York State |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A heavily-populated Northeastern state, New York has voted Democratic in every election since 1988, and has done so by at least 10% since 1992. A strongly blue state at the federal level, Democratic strength in the Empire State is mainly focused on New York City (the most populous city in the country) and its metropolitan area, followed by Greater Buffalo and the Capital Region.
Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error.[2][3] Although won by Harris, it was the worst performance of any Democratic candidate since 1988. Harris won the state by an 11.6% margin, about half of Biden's margin of 23.13% four years prior.
In terms of raw number of votes cast, this was overall Trump's best performance in New York out of his three presidential races (improving on his vote tally with each election) and it was the highest number of votes cast for any Republican presidential candidate in the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984, the most recent time a Republican presidential candidate won New York. This is also the first time since George W. Bush in 2004 in which the Republican candidate received over 40% of the vote and carried Rockland County, as well as the first time the Republican candidate has carried Nassau and Clinton County since 1988 and 1992, respectively.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 288,138 | 80.7% | 268 | 268 | |
Marianne Williamson | 15,573 | 4.4% | |||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 11,309 | 3.2% | |||
Blank ballots | 41,113 | 11.5% | |||
Void ballots | 903 | 0.3% | |||
Total: | 357,036 | 100.0% | 268 | 38 | 306 |
Primary polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Different Candidate |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College[5] | Sep 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
Siena College[6] | Aug 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Siena College[7] | Jun 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
Siena College[8] | May 7–11, 2023 | 810 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
Siena College[9] | Mar 19–22, 2023 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | 7% |
Republican primary
[edit]The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 132,698 | 81.2% | 91 | 91 | |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 21,145 | 12.9% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 6,679 | 4.1% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,667 | 1.0% | |||
Blank or void ballots | 1,311 | 0.8% | |||
Total: | 163,500 | 100.0% | 91 | 91 |
General election
[edit]Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris will be under the Democratic and Working Families Party ticket while Trump will be running on the Republican and the New York Conservative Party ticket.[11] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will not be appearing on the ballot in New York[12] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[13] ruled that he had listed his place of residence as being in Katonah, New York to be false and that he actually lived in Los Angeles.[14]
The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates:[15]
- Shiva Ayyadurai
- Claudia de la Cruz, nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation
- Chris Garrity
- Garry Hubbard
- Andre Ramon McNeil Sr
- Chase Oliver, nominee of the Libertarian Party
- Future Madam Potus
- Raymond Anthony Scollin, former Franklin County Republican Committee chairman[16]
- Peter Sonski, nominee of the American Solidarity Party
- Jill Stein, nominee of the Green Party
- Cornel West
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[17] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[18] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[21] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[22] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[23] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
538[24] | Solid D | August 23, 2024 |
RCP[25] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
NBC News[26] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co.[27] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 57% | 41% | 2% |
ActiVote[28] | October 7–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
Siena College[29] | October 13–17, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 58% | 39% | 3% |
ActiVote[30] | September 4–30, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – |
Emerson College[31][A] | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 6%[b] |
Siena College[32] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 55% | 42% | 3% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
ActiVote[33] | August 1–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
Siena College[34] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
SoCal Strategies (R)[35][B] | July 18–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College[32] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 40% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College[29] | October 13–17, 2024 | 872 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 37% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6%[c] |
Siena College[34] | July 28 – August 1, 2024 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SoCal Strategies (R)[35][B] | July 18–19, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 41% | 7% |
Siena College[36] | June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
Emerson College[37][C] | May 28–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
55%[d] | 45% | – | ||||
Siena College[38] | May 13–15, 2024 | 1,191 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Slingshot Strategies (D)[39] | May 2–3, 2024 | 1,059 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 56% | 37% | 17% |
John Zogby Strategies[40][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Siena College[41] | April 15–17, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Siena College[42] | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Siena College[43] | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
Siena College[44] | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Siena College[45] | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
Siena College[46] | September 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 17% |
Siena College[6] | August 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
Siena College[7] | June 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 28% | 21% |
SurveyUSA[47][E] | November 3–6, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
Emerson College[48][C] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
SurveyUSA[49][F] | October 14–18, 2022 | 1,018 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
Emerson College[50] | September 4–6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
SurveyUSA[51][E] | August 17–21, 2022 | 715 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 29% | 22% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[52] | August 7–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College[42] | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
Siena College[43] | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 11% |
Siena College[44] | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 37% | 28% | 18% | 5% | 11% |
Siena College[45] | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[37][C] | May 28–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[40][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[40][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 749 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 16% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | |||||
Working Families | |||||
Total | 4,341,453 | 55.8% | 5.07% | ||
Republican | |||||
Conservative | |||||
Total | 3,436,961 | 44.2% | 6.47% | ||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Broome (largest municipality: Binghamton)
- Clinton (largest municipality: Plattsburgh)
- Essex (largest municipality: North Elba)
- Nassau (largest municipality: Town of Hempstead)
- Rockland (largest municipality: New City)
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in New York
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]Partisan clients
References
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- ^ "Siena College" (PDF).
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