2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 28.3%  8.9 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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  Beshear: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Williams: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Kentucky |
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 Government |
The 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the governor of Kentucky and the lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear won re-election, defeating Republican challenger David L. Williams, then the president of the state senate, and Gatewood Galbraith, an independent candidate. Statewide turnout in this election was 28%.[1]
Background
[edit]On July 19, 2009, Beshear announced his intention to run for re-election. However, in that announcement, he stated that then-Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson would be his running mate in 2011[2] instead of current Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, who chose to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[3] Kentucky state law requires that gubernatorial candidates file to run with running mates, otherwise they cannot legally raise money. Beshear wanted to fundraise and this would have required Mongiardo also saying that he was running in 2011, which he couldn't do.[4] Beshear and Abramson did not face any opposition for the Democratic nomination.
Among Republicans, Kentucky State Senate President David Williams from Burkesville announced his official candidacy along with running mate Richie Farmer, the term-limited State Agriculture Commissioner and former Kentucky Wildcats basketball player.[5] Louisville businessman Phil Moffett also announced his ticket with State Representative Mike Harmon from Danville as his running mate.[6] Moffett was seen as the Tea Party favorite.[7] However, Williams also advocated for similar positions as Moffett, such as the repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution[8] and promoting tax reforms similar to what Moffett proposed.
Attorney Gatewood Galbraith of Lexington filed to run his fourth gubernatorial campaign as an independent on July 4, 2009, choosing marketing consultant Dea Riley as his running mate.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Steve Beshear, incumbent governor of Kentucky, 2007–2015; former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1983–1987; former Attorney General of Kentucky, 1979–1983; and former State Representative, 1974–1979.
- Running mate: Jerry Abramson, Louisville Mayor, 1986-1999 and 2003–2011.
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear (incumbent) | 446,048 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 446,048 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Bobbie Holsclaw, Jefferson County Clerk, 1998–2010, 2014–present[9]
- Running mate: Bill Vermillion, retired U.S. Navy master chief
- Phil Moffett, Louisville businessman[10][11] and Tea Party activist[7]
- Running mate: Mike Harmon, state representative, 2003–2016
- David L. Williams, state senate president, 2000–2012; state senator 1987–2012; and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[12]
- Running mate: Richie Farmer, Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner, 2004–2012
Polling
[edit]| Poll Source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bobbie Holsclaw |
Phil Moffett |
David Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[13] | May 4–10, 2011 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 12% | 21% | 47% | 21% |
| Survey USA[14] | April 8–13, 2011 | 507 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 14% | 49% | 25% |
Results
[edit]
Williams
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Moffett
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Holsclaw
- 30–40%
Tie
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | David Williams | 68,528 | 48.0% | |
| Republican | Phil Moffett | 53,966 | 38.0% | |
| Republican | Bobbie Holsclaw | 19,614 | 14.0% | |
| Total votes | 142,108 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Gatewood Galbraith, attorney, industrial hemp advocate and perennial candidate[16]
- Running mate: Dea Riley, political consultant
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Rothenberg Political Report[17] | Lean D | November 4, 2011 |
| Governing[18] | Lean D | November 4, 2011 |
| Cook[19] | Lean D | November 4, 2011 |
| Sabato[20] | Likely D | November 4, 2011 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Beshear (D) |
David Williams (R) |
Gatewood Galbraith (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[21] | October 28 – November 1, 2011 | 576 | ± 4.2% | 54% | 29% | 9% | 8% |
| Braun Research[22] | October 17–19, 2011 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 26% | 8% | 12% |
| Survey USA[23] | September 22–27, 2011 | 569 | ± 4.2% | 57% | 26% | 8% | 9% |
| Braun Research[24] | August 29–31, 2011 | 803 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 25% | 7% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[25] | August 25–28, 2011 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 28% | 10% | 8% |
| Survey USA[26] | July 22–27, 2011 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 52% | 28% | 9% | 11% |
| Braun Research[27] | June 6–8, 2011 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 30% | 6% | 14% |
| Survey USA[14] | April 8–13, 2011 | 1,589 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
| Braun Research[28] | February 28 – March 1, 2011 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,021 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 35% | — | 21% |
| Mason-Dixon[30] | October 18–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 30% | 5% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[31] | September 11–12, 2010 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | — | 17% |
| Braun Research[32] | August 30 – September 1, 2010 | 802 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 38% | — | 18% |
| Braun Research[33] | July 19–21, 2010 | 803 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 30% | — | 20% |
Hypothetical polling
With Moffett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Beshear (D) |
Phil Moffett (R) |
Gatewood Galbraith (I) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[14] | April 8–13, 2011 | 1,589 | ± 2.5% | 54% | 34% | — | 13% |
| Braun Research[28] | February 28-March 1, 2011 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 28% | — | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,021 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 26% | — | 29% |
| Mason-Dixon[34] | October 18–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 24% | 6% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling[31] | September 11–12, 2010 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 28% | — | 26% |
| Braun Research[32] | September 1, 2010 | — | — | 49% | 29% | — | 22% |
With Holsclaw
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Beshear (D) |
Bobbie Holsclaw (R) |
Gatewood Galbraith (I) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[14] | April 8–13, 2011 | 1,589 | ± 2.5% | 53% | 34% | — | 13% |
| Braun Research[28] | February 28 – March 1, 2011 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 27% | — | 21% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear (incumbent) | 464,245 | 55.72% | −2.99% | |
| Republican | David L. Williams | 294,034 | 35.29% | −6.00% | |
| Independent | Gatewood Galbraith | 74,860 | 8.99% | +8.99% | |
| Total votes | 833,139 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Garrard (Largest city: Lancaster)
- Grayson (Largest city: Leitchfield)
- Green (Largest city: Greensburg)
- Jessamine (Largest city: Nicholasville)
- Knox (Largest city: Barbourville)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
- Oldham (Largest city: La Grange)
- Taylor (Largest city: Campbellsville)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
- Crittenden (Largest city: Marion)
- Edmonson (Largest city: Brownsville)
- Leslie (Largest city: Hyden)
- Martin (Largest city: Inez)
- Owsley (Largest city: Booneville)
- Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
- Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
By congressional district
[edit]Beshear won all 6 congressional districts, including four represented by Republicans.[36]
| District | Beshear | Williams | Galbraith | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54% | 41% | 5% | Ed Whitfield |
| 2nd | 57% | 38% | 6% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 67% | 27% | 6% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 53% | 40% | 6% | Geoff Davis |
| 5th | 47% | 44% | 8% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 56% | 23% | 21% | Ben Chandler |
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Election summary". Archived from the original on February 11, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2021.
- ^ Gerth, Joseph (July 19, 2009). "Abramson to be Beshear's running mate in 2011". The Courier-Journal. Archived from the original on January 2, 2013. Retrieved July 20, 2009.
- ^ Ronnie Ellis (March 27, 2009). "Beshear endorses Mongiardo for Senate". News-tribune.net. Archived from the original on February 22, 2013. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ "Mongiardo considers running for Senate".
- ^ Alford, Roger (October 28, 2009). "Farmer mulls run for governor". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved October 28, 2009.
- ^ Arnold, Joe (July 29, 2010). "Phil Moffett announces candidacy for governor | WHAS11.com Louisville". Whas11.com. Archived from the original on March 5, 2012. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ a b Brammer, Jack (November 15, 2010). "David Williams and Phil Moffett in a battle for the Republican Party's soul". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 5, 2020.
- ^ Jack Brammer, Lexington Herald Leader, November 19, 2010 "Williams pushes repeal of 17th amendment"
- ^ Newton, Dave (January 25, 2011). "Stage Set For the Primary Election". Kentuckians For The Commonwealth. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
- ^ "Louisville businessman Phil Moffett running for governor : Bluegrass Politics". Bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ "Republican Phil Moffett announces gubernatorial campaign, hopes for Tea Party support". Apex MediaWire. July 29, 2009. Archived from the original on March 26, 2012. Retrieved July 29, 2009.
- ^ Brammer, Jack (September 2, 2010). "David Williams and Richie Farmer form slate to seek state's top offices". Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on September 3, 2010. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ a b c d Survey USA
- ^ "KY – Election Results". Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ Blackford, Linda B. (October 13, 2011). "Dea Riley brings energy, and baggage, to Gatewood Galbraith's campaign". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
- ^ "An Update on the 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Contests". Governing. July 25, 2011. Archived from the original on August 1, 2011.
- ^ "2011/2012 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". The Cook Political Report. September 15, 2011. Archived from the original on October 7, 2011.
- ^ "2012 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ Public Policy Polling [dead link]
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ a b c Braun Research
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Braun Research [permanent dead link]
- ^ Braun Research
- ^ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "KY – Election Results". Retrieved August 18, 2012.
- ^ https://x.com/kentucky_kiwi/status/1690856927197024258
External links
[edit]Candidates
Information
- Kentucky State Board of Elections
- Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2011 at Ballotpedia
- Kentucky Governor Candidates Archived November 30, 2008, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2011 Kentucky Governor from Follow the Money
- Kentucky Governor 2011 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2011 Kentucky Governor – Williams vs. Beshear vs. Galbraith from Real Clear Politics