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2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky
← 2016 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee Rand Paul Charles Booker
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 913,326 564,311
Percentage 61.80% 38.19%
Paul:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Booker:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Rand Paul
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.

Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]

This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.

Background

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Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Arnold Blankenship, retiree[5]
  • Valerie Frederick[5]
  • Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor[6]
  • John Schiess, perennial candidate[5]
  • Tami Stanfield, former sales executive[5]

Endorsements

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Rand Paul

Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

Organizations

Results

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Results by county:
  Paul
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 333,051 86.35%
Republican Valerie Frederick 14,018 3.63%
Republican Paul V. Hamilton 13,473 3.49%
Republican Arnold Blankenship 10,092 2.62%
Republican Tami Stanfield 9,526 2.47%
Republican John Schiess 5,538 1.44%
Total votes 385,698 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran[14]
  • Ruth Gao, educator and activist[15]
  • John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran[5]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Charles Booker

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Results

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Results by county:
  Booker
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Blanton
  •   40–50%
  Merrill
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Charles Booker 214,245 73.29%
Democratic Joshua Blanton Sr. 30,980 10.60%
Democratic John Merrill 28,931 9.90%
Democratic Ruth Gao 18,154 6.21%
Total votes 292,310 100.0%

General election

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Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[34] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[35][36]

Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[39]

An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[42]

Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Solid R November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[44] Solid R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Safe R November 3, 2021
Politico[46] Solid R October 18, 2022
RCP[47] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[48] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[49] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[50] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[51] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Rand Paul (R)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Charles Booker (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Rand
Paul (R) 		Charles
Booker (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[67] January 19–22, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 55% 39% 6%
Hypothetical polling

Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Rand
Paul (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[68] February 1–4, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 41% 12%

Results

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2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky[69]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 913,326 61.80% +4.53%
Democratic Charles Booker 564,311 38.19% −4.54%
Write-in 193 0.01% +0.01%
Total votes 1,477,830 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Paul won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[70]

District Paul Booker Representative
1st 71% 29% James Comer
2nd 68% 32% Brett Guthrie
3rd 40% 60% John Yarmuth (117th Congress)
Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress)
4th 66% 34% Thomas Massie
5th 75% 25% Hal Rogers
6th 54% 46% Andy Barr

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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  1. ^ a b c Dean, Kelly (February 25, 2021). "Sen. Rand Paul discusses upcoming plans for re-election 2022". WBKO. Archived from the original on February 27, 2021. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
  2. ^ "Rand Paul reelected for third term". WKYT. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ^ WLKY Digital Team (May 10, 2022). "Voter guide: Kentucky primary election 2022". Wlky.com. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  4. ^ "Sen. Rand Paul announces he has filed for re-election". WBKO. January 5, 2022.
  5. ^ a b c d e "Election Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  6. ^ "Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  7. ^ a b Kobin, Bill (April 9, 2021). "Donald Trump endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for 2022 reelection". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  8. ^ a b "I was proud to speak at Senator @RandPaul's campaign kickoff event in Oldham County tonight! Let's Stand with Rand & help send a Republican Senate Majority to D.C. this year". Twitter. April 30, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Club for Growth PAC Endorsed Candidates". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  10. ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rand Paul in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 25, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  11. ^ a b "Turning Point Action". Turning Point Action - Endorsements. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  12. ^ a b "May 17, 2022 Official 2022 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of Kentucky. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  13. ^ "It's official: Charles Booker will run for Senate again, this time against Rand Paul". WLKY. July 1, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  14. ^ Smith, Lawrence (June 30, 2021). "Democrats begin lining up for right to challenge Sen. Rand Paul". WDRB. Retrieved July 31, 2021.
  15. ^ "Ruth Gao announces U.S. Senate run in Kentucky, aims to become 'first millennial woman Senator'". WLEX-TV. June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  16. ^ "Political Notebook: Could Rocky Adkins be Kentucky's Joe Manchin in 2022 Senate race?". Lexington Herald-Leader. April 15, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
  17. ^ "Room for a Moderate Democrat in 2022 U.S. Senate Primary". Kentucky Fried Politics. July 9, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  18. ^ a b Breon Martin (May 2, 2021). "US Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally with Charles Booker in Louisville". WDRB.
  19. ^ a b Morgan Watkins (July 26, 2021). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Charles Booker in bid for Rand Paul's Senate seat". Courier Journal.
  20. ^ a b "Rep. John Yarmuth backs Charles Booker in his bid to unseat Sen. Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. November 11, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2021.
  21. ^ a b c d "Charles Booker picks up major union endorsement in run for U.S. Senate". WLKY. July 21, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  22. ^ a b Craig, Berry (March 4, 2022). "State AFL-CIO backs Booker, McGarvey". Forward Kentucky. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  23. ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
  24. ^ a b "BNC Endorses Charles Booker!". Brand New Congress. Archived from the original on August 4, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2021.
  25. ^ a b Simpson, Yvette (July 1, 2021). "Democracy for America : DFA backs Charles Booker for 2022 Senate rematch in Kentucky". democracyforamerica.com. Democracy for America.
  26. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". indivisible.org. Indivisible. September 21, 2018. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
  27. ^ a b "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  28. ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021. Archived from the original on October 31, 2022. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
  29. ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  30. ^ a b "Sunrise Movement endorses progressive Democrats Summer Lee, Nida Allam and Erica Smith for Congress". March 24, 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  31. ^ a b "Our Candidates". Working Families Party.
  32. ^ a b Scott Recker (October 15, 2021). "Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump Endorses Charles Booker For Senate". LEO Weekly.
  33. ^ Selleck, Stacey (September 28, 2015). "Rand Paul Signs U.S. Term Limits Pledge - U.S. Term Limits". Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  34. ^ "Sen. Rand Paul officially files for re-election". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  35. ^ Willis, Derek (August 12, 2015). "Votes Against Party by Rand Paul (R-Ky.)". ProPublica. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  36. ^ "Rand Paul on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  37. ^ Sonka, Joe. "Charles Booker makes it official, announces run for US Senate seat held by Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  38. ^ "Charles Booker on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  39. ^ "Stand up for Kentucky Coal Miners". Charles Booker For U.S. Senate. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  40. ^ Watkins, Morgan. "Mason-Dixon poll: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is in good shape for reelection next year". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  41. ^ "2022 Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Booker | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  42. ^ "Rand Paul declines to debate Charles Booker on KET". Louisville Public Media. September 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  43. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  44. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  45. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  46. ^ "Kentucky Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  47. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  48. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  49. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  50. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  51. ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
  52. ^ Kobin, Bill (July 15, 2022). "Biden Drops Plan to Name Anti-Abortion Lawyer Backed by McConnell as Judge". The New York Times. Retrieved July 16, 2022. Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
  53. ^ "Paul and Barr speak at Republican 'Boots and Bluegrass' event". www.richmondregister.com. October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  54. ^ "Senator Rand Paul, Ag. Commissioner Ryan Quarles visit Hopkinsville". whopam.com. October 1, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  55. ^ a b c d e f "DR. RAND PAUL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT FROM OWENSBORO AREA SHERIFFS, RELEASES AD ON DEFENDING LAW ENFORCEMENT". randpaul.com. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  56. ^ a b c d e f g h "Rand Paul's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
  57. ^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Four House Candidates". finance.yahoo.com. October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  58. ^ Storm, Nick (September 12, 2022). "Rand Paul Endorsed by KY Fraternal Order of Police". www.kentuckyfried.com. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
  59. ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Kentucky". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  60. ^ "Charles Booker's primary win was historic. But his Senate run against Rand Paul faces a tough road ahead". May 23, 2022.
  61. ^ a b c d e Storm, Nick (September 1, 2022). "Charles Booker Endorsed by Gov. Beshear & Former KY Governors". www.kentuckyfried.com.
  62. ^ "The Herald-Leader endorses Charles Booker for Senate". amp.kentucky.com. October 21, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  63. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Charles Booker's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  64. ^ "LegalizeKY".
  65. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 23, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  66. ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  67. ^ Mason-Dixon
  68. ^ Mason-Dixon
  69. ^ "November 8, 2022 - Official 2022 General Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 24, 2022. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  70. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
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Official campaign websites

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