2022 United States Senate election in Illinois
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Duckworth: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Salvi: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Illinois |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.
Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee, winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was the first Illinois U.S. Senate election where both major party candidates were female.
Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all voted against her in 2016. With Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Tammy Duckworth, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- Illinois National Organization for Women[7]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 856,720 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 856,720 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kathy Salvi, attorney, former assistant public defender in Lake County,[18] and candidate for Illinois's 8th congressional district in 2006[19]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Casey Chlebek, real estate agent[20]
- Matthew Dubiel, owner of WCKG[17][21]
- Peggy Hubbard, former police officer, U.S. Navy veteran, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[22]
- Bobby Piton, investor and activist[23]
- Jimmy Lee Tillman, founder of New Martin Luther King Republicans, son of former Chicago alderman Dorothy Tillman, and nominee for Illinois's 1st congressional district in 2014 and 2018[24][25]
- Anthony Williams[24]
Disqualified
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Tom Demmer, state representative (ran for Illinois Treasurer)[28][29]
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. Representative for Illinois's 16th congressional district[30][31]
Endorsements
[edit]Individuals
- Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017) and former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) (Democratic)[32][better source needed]
State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[33]
Newspapers
- Chicago Tribune (Republican primary only)[18]
- Daily Herald[34]
Organizations
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[35]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[36]
- Evanston Township GOP[35]
- Homer Township Republicans[35]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[35]
- Illinois Family Action[37]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[35]
- Lake County Republican Party[38]
- McHenry County GOPAC[35]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[35]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Niles Township Republicans[35]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[42]
- Winfield Township Republicans[35]
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Casey Chlebek |
Matthew Dubiel |
Peggy Hubbard |
Bobby Piton |
Kathy Salvi |
Jimmy Lee Tillman |
Anthony Williams |
Other [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[43] | June 6–13, 2022 | June 15, 2022 | 3.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 12.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 57.0% | Hubbard +1.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Casey Chlebek |
Matthew Dubiel |
Peggy Hubbard |
Maryann Mahlen |
Bobby Piton |
Kathy Salvi |
Jimmy Lee Tillman |
Anthony Williams |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ogden & Fry (R)[44] | June 24, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 53% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[45] | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 6% | 4% | 18% | – | 6% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 49% |
Ogden & Fry (R)[46] | June 11–12, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 62% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[47] | June 6–7, 2022 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 1% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 66% |
Emerson College[48] | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 4% | 4% | 7% | – | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 72% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kathy Salvi | 216,007 | 30.23% | |
Republican | Peggy Hubbard | 177,180 | 24.79% | |
Republican | Matthew "Matt" Dubiel | 90,538 | 12.67% | |
Republican | Casey Chlebek | 76,213 | 10.66% | |
Republican | Robert "Bobby" Piton | 65,461 | 9.16% | |
Republican | Anthony W. Williams | 52,890 | 7.40% | |
Republican | Jimmy Lee Tillman II | 36,342 | 5.09% | |
Total votes | 714,631 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[49] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[50] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] | Safe D | March 1, 2022 |
Politico[52] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[53] | Likely D | October 26, 2022 |
Fox News[54] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[55] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
538[56] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist[57] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, President of the United States (2021–present)[58]
- Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[59]
U.S. Senators
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present) and Senate Majority Whip (2021–present)[60]
Labor Unions
Organizations
- EMILY's List[2]
- End Citizens United[3]
- Feminist Majority PAC[4]
- Giffords[5]
- Illinois AFL–CIO[6]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150[8]
- Jewish Dems[9]
- League of Conservation Voters[10]
- Let America Vote[3]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[11]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[13]
- Population Connection Action Fund[14]
- Sierra Club[62]
- VoteVets.org[63]
- Women's Political Committee[15]
Newspapers
U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021) and 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)[35]
State legislators
- Jeanne Ives, former state representative from the 42nd district (2013–2019)[33]
Local officials
- Richard Irvin, mayor of Aurora[66]
Newspapers
- The Arab Daily News[35]
Organizations
- Barrington Township Republican Organization[35]
- Bremen Township Republican Organization[67]
- Evanston Township GOP[35]
- Homer Township Republicans[35]
- Huck PAC[68]
- Illinois Citizens for Life[35]
- Illinois Family Action[37]
- Illinois Federation for Right to Life[35]
- Illinois Fraternal Order of Police[35]
- Lake County Republican Party[38]
- McHenry County GOPAC[35]
- McHenry County ProLife Victory PAC[35]
- Moms for America Action[35]
- New Trier GOP[39]
- Niles Township Republicans[35]
- Northfield Township Republican Organization[35]
- Republicans of Wheeling Township[40]
- Sangamon County GOP[41]
- Schaumburg Township Republican Organization[42]
- United Hellenic Voters of America[35]
- Winfield Township Republicans[35]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Kathy Salvi (R) |
Undecided [c] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight[69] | August 25 – November 8, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 55.5% | 40.2% | 4.3% | Duckworth +15.3 |
270towin[70] | October 14 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 36.4% | 12.0% | Duckworth +15.2 |
Average | 53.6% | 38.3% | 8.1% | Duckworth +15.3 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Kathy Salvi (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co.[71] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 38% | 2%[d] | 5% |
Civiqs[72] | October 22–25, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 56% | 40% | 2%[e] | 2% |
Emerson College[73] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 3%[f] | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[74] | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 5%[g] | 9% |
Research America[75] | October 5–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 29% | 10%[h] | 14% |
Emerson College[76] | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 31% | 4%[i] | 16% |
Victory Geek (D)[77] | August 25–28, 2022 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 35% | – | 7% |
Victory Research (R)[78] | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 34% | 2%[j] | 20% |
Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tammy Duckworth (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Research (R)[78] | July 17–19, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 36% | 20% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) | 2,329,136 | 56.82% | +1.96% | |
Republican | Kathy Salvi | 1,701,055 | 41.50% | +1.72% | |
Libertarian | Bill Redpath | 68,671 | 1.68% | −1.53% | |
Write-in | 34 | 0.0% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 4,098,896 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Alexander (largest city: Cairo)
- Calhoun (largest city: Hardin)
- Gallatin (largest city: Shawneetown)
- Knox (largest city: Galesburg)
- Madison (largest city: Granite City)
- McDonough (largest city: Macomb)
- Pulaski (largest city: Mounds)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Kendall (largest city: Oswego)
- McLean (largest city: Bloomington)
- Peoria (largest city: Peoria)
- Winnebago (largest city: Rockford)
By congressional district
[edit]Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[80]
District | Duckworth | Salvi | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 69.1% | 29.6% | Bobby Rush (117th Congress) |
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress) | |||
2nd | 68.9% | 29.7% | Robin Kelly |
3rd | 68.9% | 29.5% | Marie Newman (117th Congress) |
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 69.9% | 28.3% | Chuy García |
5th | 70.4% | 28.2% | Mike Quigley |
6th | 55.3% | 43.1% | Sean Casten |
7th | 86% | 12.6% | Danny Davis |
8th | 56.3% | 42.1% | Raja Krishnamoorthi |
9th | 71.6% | 27% | Jan Schakowsky |
10th | 61.6% | 36.9% | Brad Schneider |
11th | 55.6% | 42.6% | Bill Foster |
12th | 29.4% | 68.7% | Mike Bost |
13th | 55.9% | 41.9% | Nikki Budzinski |
14th | 54.2% | 44% | Lauren Underwood |
15th | 32.2% | 65.6% | Mary Miller |
16th | 38.3% | 59.8% | Darin LaHood |
17th | 51.9% | 46.1% | Cheri Bustos (117th Congress) |
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress) |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Redpath (L) with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Redpath (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Redpath with 5%
- ^ Redpath with 6%; "None" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ Redpath with 2%
References
[edit]- ^ "US Sen. Tammy Duckworth announces re-election bid". Associated Press News. Chicago. March 10, 2021. Archived from the original on March 11, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ a b "U.S. Senate Candidates".
- ^ a b c d "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senators Duckworth and Murray for Re-Election". End Citizens United. September 9, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
- ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
- ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Tammy Duckworth for Reelection to the US Senate". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 18, 2022.
- ^ a b "Political". www.ialf-cio.org. Retrieved May 1, 2022.
- ^ "Political Action Committee". www.ilnow.org.
- ^ a b "International Union of Operating Engineers Endorsed Candidates". Politico. Retrieved May 21, 2022.
- ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- ^ a b Courtnee Connon (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle". League of Conservation Voters.
- ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Slate of Reproductive Freedom Champions for the U.S. House and Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 13, 2021.
- ^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
- ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
- ^ a b "Federal Endorsed Candidates". Women's Political Committee.
- ^ a b "Election Results 2022 GENERAL PRIMARY". Illinois State Board of Elections. Retrieved July 28, 2022.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b "Candidates Filed". Illinois Secretary of State. Retrieved March 7, 2022.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b "Editorial: Kathy Salvi for the Republican primary for Tammy Duckworth's U.S. Senate seat". Chicago Tribune. June 8, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
- ^ "Kathy Salvi Announces Run For U.S. Senate". WMAY-FM. March 14, 2022. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
- ^ Pfingsten, Patrick (March 7, 2022). "Tracking Monday Candidate Filings". The Illinoize. Retrieved March 7, 2022.
- ^ Robb, Tom (March 11, 2022). "Republican Candidates Welcomed In Niles". Journal & Topics. Retrieved April 20, 2022.
- ^ a b Gough, Robert (June 9, 2021). "Peggy Hubbard tries to break through". Muddy River News.
- ^ Gilbert, David (June 15, 2021). "QAnon Follower Who Tried to Steal Arizona for Trump Is Running For Senate". VICE. Retrieved January 23, 2022.
- ^ a b c Rafael Guerrero (March 15, 2022). "Candidates file to run in Naperville Illinois House, Senate, Congressional primary races". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- ^ "1st Congressional District Republican nominee: Jimmy Lee Tillman II". Chicago Sun Times. October 13, 2018.
- ^ Trix, Herb (July 12, 2021). "Southern Illinois Republican Hopes to Challenge Senator Duckworth". WVIK. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- ^ Sheehan, Matt (March 24, 2021). "ON THE RECORD: Allison Salinas plans to challenge Sen. Duckworth's seat with focus on key issues". WMBD-TV. Archived from the original on March 25, 2021. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
- ^ Nowicki, Jerry (December 18, 2020). "Illinois House deputy minority leader Demmer considering statewide run in 2022". The State Journal-Register.
- ^ Seils, Lizzie (January 11, 2022). "Dixon Rep. Tom Demmer announces run for state treasurer". www.wifr.com. WIFR-LD. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
- ^
- Pearson, Rick (December 29, 2020). "Rep. Adam Kinzinger has battled Trump and his fellow Republicans. In deep blue Illinois, could that be a strategy for higher office?". chicagotribune.com.
- Axelrod, Tal (April 2021). "Kinzinger raises $2.2 million for reelection fund, anti-Trump PAC". The Hill.
- Sweet, Lynn (April 16, 2021). "Kinzinger: If Illinois Democrats carve up his district in remap, he may run for Senate or governor". Chicago Sun-Times. Archived from the original on April 17, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- Lissau, Russell (April 16, 2021). "Under attack from the right, U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger leading the fundraising pack in 16th District". Daily Herald. Retrieved June 21, 2021.
- ^ Sweet, Lynn (January 5, 2022). "Rep. Kinzinger to focus on fighting right-wing extremism, won't run for governor or Senate". Chicago Sun-Times. Archived from the original on January 5, 2022. Retrieved January 6, 2022.
- ^ Armentrout, Mitchell (June 12, 2022). "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Ken Griffin, Michael Flynn not prompting Illinois Republican primary voters to decide". chicago.suntimes.com. Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
Geneva financial planner Robert "Bobby" Piton... has raised more than $168,000 for his campaign, which is endorsed by Michael Flynn
- ^ a b Ives, Jeanne (May 21, 2022). "I support Kathy Salvi". Facebook. Retrieved June 8, 2022.[dead link]
- ^ "Endorsement: Salvi in Republican Senate primary". www.dailyherald.com. Daily Herald. June 2022. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "Kathy Salvi for U.S. Senate Endorsements". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ a b Smith, David. "IFA's Pro-Life, Pro-Family Primary Picks for 2022". www.illinoisfamilyaction.org. Illinois Family Action. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ a b Kapos, Shia. "Pritzker zeroes in on Roe". www.politico.com. Politico. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
- ^ a b Eaton, Fran (May 11, 2022). "NEW TRIER GOP ENDORSES SALVI, RABINE AND DEVORE". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ a b "2022 Election Endorsements". www.rowtgop.org. Archived from the original on May 20, 2022. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ a b "Sangamon County GOP Endorsements". www.sangamonrepublicans.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ a b "Schaumburg Township Republican Organization". www.stgop.org. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ Ogden & Fry (R)
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Ogden & Fry (R)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ^ "Illinois Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
- ^ "Biden in Joliet ahead of Midterm elections". November 5, 2022.
- ^ "Biden and Harris to visit Illinois before midterms". November 4, 2022.
- ^ "Pritzker, Durbin speak on ISU's campus to endorse Chung, Koehler, encourage voting". November 2, 2022.
- ^ "Illinois - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates - VoteVets". votevets.org.
- ^ "Editorial: Tammy Duckworth for US Senate". Chicago Tribune. October 12, 2022. Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsement: Duckworth for U.S. Senate". October 8, 2022.
- ^ Kapos, Shia (August 5, 2022). "Lisa Hernandez mendings fences". Politico. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
- ^ Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ "Illinois Endorsements". huckpac.com.
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ 270towin
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ Civiqs
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Research America
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Victory Geek (D)
- ^ a b Victory Research (R)
- ^ "2022 General Election Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
- ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites