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2022 United States Senate election in Illinois

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2022 United States Senate election in Illinois

← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Tammy Duckworth Kathy Salvi
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,329,136 1,701,055
Percentage 56.82% 41.50%

Duckworth:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Salvi:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%

U.S. senator before election

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.

Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Duckworth was re-elected for a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee, winning by a margin of 15.3%, 0.2% more than her 2016 margin. Duckworth became the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state's history. This was the first Illinois U.S. Senate election where both major party candidates were female.

Salvi flipped seven counties—Calhoun, McDonough, Knox, Gallatin, Pulaski, Alexander, and Madison—that had voted for Duckworth in 2016. On the other hand, Duckworth won Kendall, McLean, Peoria, and Winnebago, which had all voted against her in 2016. With Duckworth's victory, this was the first time since 1986 that a Class 3 Illinois senator was re-elected to a successive six-year term, and the first time since 1992 that any party won the seat consecutively.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Endorsements

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Results

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Democratic primary results[16][17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) 856,720 100.0%
Total votes 856,720 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Disqualified

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  • Tim Arview, insurance agent[26][22]
  • Maryann Mahlen[24]
  • Allison Salinas, activist[27]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bobby Piton

Individuals

Kathy Salvi

State legislators

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Casey
Chlebek
Matthew
Dubiel
Peggy
Hubbard
Bobby
Piton
Kathy
Salvi
Jimmy Lee
Tillman
Anthony
Williams
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[43] June 6–13, 2022 June 15, 2022 3.5% 5.5% 14.0% 4.0% 12.5% 1.5% 2.0% 57.0% Hubbard +1.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Casey
Chlebek
Matthew
Dubiel
Peggy
Hubbard
Maryann
Mahlen
Bobby
Piton
Kathy
Salvi
Jimmy Lee
Tillman
Anthony
Williams
Undecided
Ogden & Fry (R)[44] June 24, 2022 518 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 6% 11% 2% 3% 20% 2% 0% 53%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[45] June 10–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 2.9% 6% 4% 18% 6% 15% 2% 1% 49%
Ogden & Fry (R)[46] June 11–12, 2022 662 (LV) ± 3.9% 1% 4% 9% 2% 4% 17% 1% 1% 62%
Public Policy Polling (D)[47] June 6–7, 2022 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 1% 7% 10% 2% 10% 1% 3% 66%
Emerson College[48] May 6–8, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 4% 4% 7% 6% 5% 1% 1% 72%

Results

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Results by county
  Salvi
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hubbard
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Dubiel
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kathy Salvi 216,007 30.23%
Republican Peggy Hubbard 177,180 24.79%
Republican Matthew "Matt" Dubiel 90,538 12.67%
Republican Casey Chlebek 76,213 10.66%
Republican Robert "Bobby" Piton 65,461 9.16%
Republican Anthony W. Williams 52,890 7.40%
Republican Jimmy Lee Tillman II 36,342 5.09%
Total votes 714,631 100.0%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[49] Solid D March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[50] Solid D April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51] Safe D March 1, 2022
Politico[52] Solid D April 1, 2022
RCP[53] Likely D October 26, 2022
Fox News[54] Solid D May 12, 2022
DDHQ[55] Solid D July 20, 2022
538[56] Solid D June 30, 2022
The Economist[57] Safe D September 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Kathy Salvi (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

State legislators

Local officials

Newspapers

  • The Arab Daily News[35]

Organizations

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Kathy
Salvi (R)
Undecided
[c]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[69] August 25 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 55.5% 40.2% 4.3% Duckworth +15.3
270towin[70] October 14 – November 7, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.6% 36.4% 12.0% Duckworth +15.2
Average 53.6% 38.3% 8.1% Duckworth +15.3

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Kathy
Salvi (R)
Other Undecided
Research Co.[71] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 55% 38% 2%[d] 5%
Civiqs[72] October 22–25, 2022 659 (LV) ± 4.3% 56% 40% 2%[e] 2%
Emerson College[73] October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% 3%[f] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[74] October 10–11, 2022 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 5%[g] 9%
Research America[75] October 5–11, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 29% 10%[h] 14%
Emerson College[76] September 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 31% 4%[i] 16%
Victory Geek (D)[77] August 25–28, 2022 512 (LV) ± 4.3% 58% 35% 7%
Victory Research (R)[78] July 17–19, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 43% 34% 2%[j] 20%
Hypothetical polling

Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Victory Research (R)[78] July 17–19, 2022 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 36% 20%

Results

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2022 United States Senate election in Illinois[79]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) 2,329,136 56.82% +1.96%
Republican Kathy Salvi 1,701,055 41.50% +1.72%
Libertarian Bill Redpath 68,671 1.68% −1.53%
Write-in 34 0.0% -0.01%
Total votes 4,098,896 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Duckworth won 14 of 17 congressional districts.[80]

District Duckworth Salvi Representative
1st 69.1% 29.6% Bobby Rush (117th Congress)
Jonathan Jackson (118th Congress)
2nd 68.9% 29.7% Robin Kelly
3rd 68.9% 29.5% Marie Newman (117th Congress)
Delia Ramirez (118th Congress)
4th 69.9% 28.3% Chuy García
5th 70.4% 28.2% Mike Quigley
6th 55.3% 43.1% Sean Casten
7th 86% 12.6% Danny Davis
8th 56.3% 42.1% Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 71.6% 27% Jan Schakowsky
10th 61.6% 36.9% Brad Schneider
11th 55.6% 42.6% Bill Foster
12th 29.4% 68.7% Mike Bost
13th 55.9% 41.9% Nikki Budzinski
14th 54.2% 44% Lauren Underwood
15th 32.2% 65.6% Mary Miller
16th 38.3% 59.8% Darin LaHood
17th 51.9% 46.1% Cheri Bustos (117th Congress)
Eric Sorensen (118th Congress)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Redpath (L) with 2%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ Redpath (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ Redpath with 5%
  8. ^ Redpath with 6%; "None" with 4%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  10. ^ Redpath with 2%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "US Sen. Tammy Duckworth announces re-election bid". Associated Press News. Chicago. March 10, 2021. Archived from the original on March 11, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
  2. ^ a b "U.S. Senate Candidates".
  3. ^ a b c d "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senators Duckworth and Murray for Re-Election". End Citizens United. September 9, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
  4. ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Tammy Duckworth for Reelection to the US Senate". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 18, 2022.
  6. ^ a b "Political". www.ialf-cio.org. Retrieved May 1, 2022.
  7. ^ "Political Action Committee". www.ilnow.org.
  8. ^ a b "International Union of Operating Engineers Endorsed Candidates". Politico. Retrieved May 21, 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  10. ^ a b Courtnee Connon (June 10, 2021). "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of U.S. Senate Endorsements in the 2022 Election Cycle". League of Conservation Voters.
  11. ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Slate of Reproductive Freedom Champions for the U.S. House and Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 13, 2021.
  12. ^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  14. ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements". Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
  15. ^ a b "Federal Endorsed Candidates". Women's Political Committee.
  16. ^ a b "Election Results 2022 GENERAL PRIMARY". Illinois State Board of Elections. Retrieved July 28, 2022.[permanent dead link]
  17. ^ a b "Candidates Filed". Illinois Secretary of State. Retrieved March 7, 2022.[permanent dead link]
  18. ^ a b "Editorial: Kathy Salvi for the Republican primary for Tammy Duckworth's U.S. Senate seat". Chicago Tribune. June 8, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
  19. ^ "Kathy Salvi Announces Run For U.S. Senate". WMAY-FM. March 14, 2022. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  20. ^ Pfingsten, Patrick (March 7, 2022). "Tracking Monday Candidate Filings". The Illinoize. Retrieved March 7, 2022.
  21. ^ Robb, Tom (March 11, 2022). "Republican Candidates Welcomed In Niles". Journal & Topics. Retrieved April 20, 2022.
  22. ^ a b Gough, Robert (June 9, 2021). "Peggy Hubbard tries to break through". Muddy River News.
  23. ^ Gilbert, David (June 15, 2021). "QAnon Follower Who Tried to Steal Arizona for Trump Is Running For Senate". VICE. Retrieved January 23, 2022.
  24. ^ a b c Rafael Guerrero (March 15, 2022). "Candidates file to run in Naperville Illinois House, Senate, Congressional primary races". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  25. ^ "1st Congressional District Republican nominee: Jimmy Lee Tillman II". Chicago Sun Times. October 13, 2018.
  26. ^ Trix, Herb (July 12, 2021). "Southern Illinois Republican Hopes to Challenge Senator Duckworth". WVIK. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  27. ^ Sheehan, Matt (March 24, 2021). "ON THE RECORD: Allison Salinas plans to challenge Sen. Duckworth's seat with focus on key issues". WMBD-TV. Archived from the original on March 25, 2021. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
  28. ^ Nowicki, Jerry (December 18, 2020). "Illinois House deputy minority leader Demmer considering statewide run in 2022". The State Journal-Register.
  29. ^ Seils, Lizzie (January 11, 2022). "Dixon Rep. Tom Demmer announces run for state treasurer". www.wifr.com. WIFR-LD. Retrieved February 10, 2022.
  30. ^
  31. ^ Sweet, Lynn (January 5, 2022). "Rep. Kinzinger to focus on fighting right-wing extremism, won't run for governor or Senate". Chicago Sun-Times. Archived from the original on January 5, 2022. Retrieved January 6, 2022.
  32. ^ Armentrout, Mitchell (June 12, 2022). "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Ken Griffin, Michael Flynn not prompting Illinois Republican primary voters to decide". chicago.suntimes.com. Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved June 19, 2022. Geneva financial planner Robert "Bobby" Piton... has raised more than $168,000 for his campaign, which is endorsed by Michael Flynn
  33. ^ a b Ives, Jeanne (May 21, 2022). "I support Kathy Salvi". Facebook. Retrieved June 8, 2022.[dead link]
  34. ^ "Endorsement: Salvi in Republican Senate primary". www.dailyherald.com. Daily Herald. June 2022. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
  35. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "Kathy Salvi for U.S. Senate Endorsements". www.kathysalvi.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  36. ^ Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  37. ^ a b Smith, David. "IFA's Pro-Life, Pro-Family Primary Picks for 2022". www.illinoisfamilyaction.org. Illinois Family Action. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  38. ^ a b Kapos, Shia. "Pritzker zeroes in on Roe". www.politico.com. Politico. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
  39. ^ a b Eaton, Fran (May 11, 2022). "NEW TRIER GOP ENDORSES SALVI, RABINE AND DEVORE". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  40. ^ a b "2022 Election Endorsements". www.rowtgop.org. Archived from the original on May 20, 2022. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  41. ^ a b "Sangamon County GOP Endorsements". www.sangamonrepublicans.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  42. ^ a b "Schaumburg Township Republican Organization". www.stgop.org. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  43. ^ Real Clear Politics
  44. ^ Ogden & Fry (R)
  45. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  46. ^ Ogden & Fry (R)
  47. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ^ Emerson College
  49. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  50. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  51. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  52. ^ "Illinois Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  53. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  54. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  55. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  56. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  57. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  58. ^ "Biden in Joliet ahead of Midterm elections". November 5, 2022.
  59. ^ "Biden and Harris to visit Illinois before midterms". November 4, 2022.
  60. ^ "Pritzker, Durbin speak on ISU's campus to endorse Chung, Koehler, encourage voting". November 2, 2022.
  61. ^ "Illinois - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
  62. ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  63. ^ "Endorsed Candidates - VoteVets". votevets.org.
  64. ^ "Editorial: Tammy Duckworth for US Senate". Chicago Tribune. October 12, 2022. Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  65. ^ "Endorsement: Duckworth for U.S. Senate". October 8, 2022.
  66. ^ Kapos, Shia (August 5, 2022). "Lisa Hernandez mendings fences". Politico. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  67. ^ Eaton, Fran (May 18, 2022). "South Suburban GOPers pick Salvi, Bailey, and Pekau in contested races". www.illinoisreview.com. Illinois Review. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  68. ^ "Illinois Endorsements". huckpac.com.
  69. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  70. ^ 270towin
  71. ^ Research Co.
  72. ^ Civiqs
  73. ^ Emerson College
  74. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  75. ^ Research America
  76. ^ Emerson College
  77. ^ Victory Geek (D)
  78. ^ a b Victory Research (R)
  79. ^ "2022 General Election Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  80. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
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Official campaign websites