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2020 United States presidential election in Indiana

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2020 United States presidential election in Indiana
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout61.37%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,729,857 1,242,498
Percentage 57.03% 40.96%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Indiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Indiana was the home state of Pence, who served as Governor of Indiana from 2013 to 2017. Pence retained a 59% approval among voters in his home state.[5] On the day of the election, most news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a likely red state. Trump won Indiana by 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory.

This election marked the first time since 1952 and only the third time since 1888 that Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a significant bellwether county, voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election. Biden subsequently became the first presidential nominee of either party since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, and the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1884 to win the presidency without carrying Vigo County.[6]

Biden also became the first Democrat since FDR in 1944 to win without carrying traditionally Democratic Perry County in Southern Indiana. Biden did flip Tippecanoe County, home to Lafayette and Purdue University, from Republican to Democratic, marking the first time since 1936 that the county voted against Indiana's statewide winner. Biden was also the first Democrat to win without LaPorte County since 1976. Trump also became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to carry exurban Madison County with more than 60% of the vote.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 58 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 Indiana Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 380,836 76.48 80
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 67,688 13.59 2
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 17,957 3.61
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,344 2.88
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 4,783 0.96
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,426 0.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 3,860 0.78
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 2,657 0.53
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 1,376 0.28
Total 497,927 100% 82

Libertarian nominee

[edit]

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

Green primary

[edit]

The Green primary was held on May 1–31, 2020, with mail-in ballots being post marked no later than June 1, 2020, and results being published by June 14, 2020.[10]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Likely R October 6, 2020
Inside Elections[12] Safe R October 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Likely R October 6, 2020
Politico[14] Safe R October 6, 2020
RCP[15] Lean R October 6, 2020
Niskanen[16] Safe R October 6, 2020
CNN[17] Safe R October 6, 2020
The Economist[18] Safe R October 6, 2020
CBS News[19] Likely R October 6, 2020
270towin[20] Safe R October 6, 2020
ABC News[21] Safe R October 6, 2020
NPR[22] Likely R October 6, 2020
NBC News[23] Likely R October 6, 2020
538[24] Safe R October 6, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[25] October 14 - November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 42.0% 51.0% 7.0% Trump +9.0
FiveThirtyEight[26] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 42.0% 52.9% 5.1% Trump +10.8

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,729 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[c] 44% – – –
Swayable[28] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 264 (LV) ± 7.8% 55% 43% 2% – –
Morning Consult[29] Oct 22–31, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 3% 53% 42% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Oct 1–28, 2020 4,734 (LV) – 55% 43% – – –
Swayable[30] Oct 23–26, 2020 301 (LV) ± 7.4% 53% 42% 5% – –
Ragnar Research (R)[31] Oct 18–21, 2020 529 (LV) ± 4% 48% 40% 5% – 7%
SurveyUSA/Election Twitter[32] Oct 10–13, 2020 527 (LV) ± 5.2% 49% 42% – 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,367 (LV) – 53% 45% – – –
Change Research/IndyPolitics[33] Sep 3–7, 2020 1,033 (LV) ± 3.1% 53% 39% 5% – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,672 (LV) – 55% 43% – – –
Morning Consult[34] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020[d] 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 55% 38% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Jul 1–31, 2020 2,175 (LV) – 56% 43% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] Jun 8–30, 2020 929 (LV) – 57% 40% – – –
Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General[35][1][A] May 21–23, 2020 894 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 39% – – –
Indy Politics/Change Research[36] Apr 10–13, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 52% 39% – 5% 3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Zogby Analytics[37] Aug 17–23, 2017 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 17%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Indiana[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		1,729,857 57.03% Increase 0.09%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,242,498 40.96% Increase 3.19%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		58,901 1.94% Decrease 2.96%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in) 		989 0.03% Decrease 0.26%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll (write-in)
Amar Patel (write-in) 		895 0.03% N/A
Write-in 70 0.00% Decrease 0.03%
Total votes 3,033,210 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 10,686 75.05% 3,236 22.73% 317 2.22% 7,450 52.32% 14,239
Allen 92,083 54.31% 73,189 43.16% 4,288 2.53% 18,894 11.15% 169,560
Bartholomew 22,410 61.74% 12,934 35.63% 956 2.63% 9,476 26.11% 36,300
Benton 3,007 73.07% 1,009 24.52% 99 2.41% 1,998 48.55% 4,115
Blackford 3,841 71.69% 1,376 25.68% 141 2.63% 2,465 46.01% 5,358
Boone 22,351 57.80% 15,244 39.42% 1,073 2.78% 7,107 18.38% 38,668
Brown 5,777 64.32% 3,036 33.80% 168 1.88% 2,741 30.52% 8,981
Carroll 7,086 74.48% 2,224 23.38% 204 2.14% 4,862 51.10% 9,514
Cass 10,552 69.43% 4,304 28.32% 342 2.25% 6,248 41.11% 15,198
Clark 33,668 57.99% 23,093 39.78% 1,296 2.23% 10,575 18.21% 58,057
Clay 9,499 77.35% 2,552 20.78% 220 1.87% 6,947 56.57% 12,281
Clinton 9,334 72.02% 3,361 25.93% 266 2.05% 5,973 46.09% 12,961
Crawford 3,483 70.39% 1,355 27.38% 110 2.23% 2,128 43.01% 4,948
Daviess 9,576 79.99% 2,169 18.12% 226 1.89% 7,407 61.87% 11,971
Dearborn 19,528 76.78% 5,446 21.41% 460 1.81% 14,082 55.37% 25,434
Decatur 9,575 77.82% 2,439 19.82% 290 2.36% 7,136 58.00% 12,304
DeKalb 14,237 72.43% 4,966 25.26% 453 2.31% 9,271 47.17% 19,656
Delaware 26,827 55.49% 20,474 42.35% 1,041 2.16% 6,353 13.14% 48,342
Dubois 15,033 68.94% 6,292 28.85% 481 2.21% 8,741 40.09% 21,806
Elkhart 46,972 62.95% 26,108 34.99% 1,538 2.06% 20,864 27.96% 74,618
Fayette 7,755 76.43% 2,237 22.05% 154 1.52% 5,518 54.38% 10,146
Floyd 23,400 55.85% 17,511 41.79% 988 2.36% 5,889 14.06% 41,899
Fountain 6,154 76.99% 1,629 20.38% 210 2.63% 4,525 56.61% 7,993
Franklin 9,691 80.64% 2,137 17.78% 190 1.58% 7,554 62.86% 12,018
Fulton 6,694 73.18% 2,280 24.93% 173 1.89% 4,414 48.25% 9,147
Gibson 11,817 73.12% 4,023 24.89% 321 1.99% 7,794 48.23% 16,161
Grant 18,543 68.10% 8,015 29.43% 672 2.47% 10,528 38.67% 27,230
Greene 11,103 74.98% 3,389 22.89% 315 2.13% 7,714 52.09% 14,807
Hamilton 101,587 52.21% 88,390 45.43% 4,600 2.36% 13,197 6.78% 194,577
Hancock 28,996 67.40% 12,895 29.97% 1,129 2.63% 16,101 37.43% 43,020
Harrison 14,565 71.98% 5,343 26.40% 328 1.62% 9,222 45.58% 20,236
Hendricks 53,802 60.65% 32,604 36.76% 2,299 2.59% 21,198 23.89% 88,705
Henry 15,043 71.43% 5,544 26.32% 474 2.25% 9,499 45.11% 21,061
Howard 26,449 65.10% 13,303 32.74% 878 2.16% 13,146 32.36% 40,630
Huntington 13,147 73.57% 4,255 23.81% 468 2.62% 8,892 49.76% 17,870
Jackson 14,555 75.66% 4,302 22.36% 381 1.98% 10,253 53.30% 19,238
Jasper 11,383 73.56% 3,798 24.54% 294 1.90% 7,585 49.02% 15,475
Jay 6,361 75.14% 1,926 22.75% 179 2.11% 4,435 52.39% 8,466
Jefferson 9,663 65.60% 4,731 32.12% 336 2.28% 4,932 33.48% 14,730
Jennings 9,490 77.29% 2,523 20.55% 265 2.16% 6,967 56.74% 12,278
Johnson 51,219 65.83% 24,736 31.79% 1,847 2.38% 26,483 34.04% 77,802
Knox 11,655 72.72% 4,067 25.37% 306 1.91% 7,588 47.35% 16,028
Kosciusko 26,499 73.85% 8,364 23.31% 1,021 2.84% 18,135 50.54% 35,884
LaGrange 8,110 76.14% 2,355 22.11% 187 1.75% 5,755 54.03% 10,652
Lake 91,760 41.65% 124,870 56.67% 3,700 1.68% -33,110 -15.02% 220,330
LaPorte 25,997 52.54% 22,427 45.32% 1,059 2.14% 3,570 7.22% 49,483
Lawrence 15,601 74.04% 4,961 23.54% 509 2.42% 10,640 50.50% 21,071
Madison 31,215 60.16% 19,524 37.63% 1,151 2.21% 11,691 22.53% 51,890
Marion 134,175 34.30% 247,772 63.35% 9,187 2.35% -113,597 -29.05% 391,134
Marshall 13,844 69.38% 5,712 28.63% 397 1.99% 8,132 40.75% 19,953
Martin 4,029 78.16% 1,011 19.61% 115 2.23% 3,018 58.55% 5,155
Miami 10,925 75.38% 3,235 22.32% 333 2.30% 7,690 53.06% 14,493
Monroe 22,071 34.95% 39,861 63.12% 1,219 1.93% -17,790 -28.17% 63,151
Montgomery 12,659 73.61% 4,213 24.50% 326 1.89% 8,446 49.11% 17,198
Morgan 27,512 75.96% 7,781 21.48% 928 2.56% 19,731 54.48% 36,221
Newton 4,942 74.78% 1,509 22.83% 158 2.39% 3,433 51.95% 6,609
Noble 14,195 73.87% 4,660 24.25% 362 1.88% 9,535 49.62% 19,217
Ohio 2,392 75.60% 750 23.70% 22 0.70% 1,642 51.90% 3,164
Orange 6,432 72.73% 2,224 25.15% 188 2.12% 4,208 47.58% 8,844
Owen 7,286 73.47% 2,420 24.40% 211 2.13% 4,866 49.07% 9,917
Parke 5,400 76.90% 1,503 21.40% 119 1.70% 3,897 55.50% 7,022
Perry 5,345 61.18% 3,203 36.66% 189 2.16% 2,142 24.52% 8,737
Pike 4,692 75.37% 1,415 22.73% 118 1.90% 3,277 52.64% 6,225
Porter 45,008 51.87% 39,746 45.81% 2,014 2.32% 5,262 6.06% 86,768
Posey 9,209 69.38% 3,817 28.76% 247 1.86% 5,392 40.62% 13,273
Pulaski 4,246 73.04% 1,463 25.17% 104 1.79% 2,783 47.87% 5,813
Putnam 12,278 73.86% 3,946 23.74% 399 2.40% 8,332 50.12% 16,623
Randolph 8,312 75.02% 2,513 22.68% 254 2.30% 5,799 52.34% 11,079
Ripley 11,261 78.79% 2,774 19.41% 257 1.80% 8,487 59.38% 14,292
Rush 6,035 76.00% 1,754 22.09% 152 1.91% 4,281 53.91% 7,941
Scott 7,331 72.00% 2,701 26.53% 150 1.47% 4,630 45.47% 10,182
Shelby 14,568 72.78% 5,023 25.09% 426 2.13% 9,545 47.69% 20,017
Spencer 7,357 68.19% 3,213 29.78% 219 2.03% 4,144 38.41% 10,789
St. Joseph 53,164 46.13% 59,896 51.98% 2,178 1.89% -6,732 -5.85% 115,238
Starke 7,469 72.42% 2,651 25.71% 193 1.87% 4,818 46.71% 10,313
Steuben 11,327 69.99% 4,513 27.89% 344 2.12% 6,814 42.10% 16,184
Sullivan 6,691 74.28% 2,153 23.90% 164 1.82% 4,538 50.38% 9,008
Switzerland 3,133 75.33% 964 23.18% 62 1.49% 2,169 52.15% 4,159
Tippecanoe 34,581 48.15% 35,017 48.75% 2,226 3.10% -436 -0.60% 71,824
Tipton 6,110 75.21% 1,834 22.58% 180 2.21% 4,276 52.63% 8,124
Union 2,688 76.98% 736 21.08% 68 1.94% 1,952 55.90% 3,492
Vanderburgh 41,844 53.88% 34,415 44.31% 1,403 1.81% 7,429 9.57% 77,662
Vermillion 5,184 69.21% 2,145 28.64% 161 2.15% 3,039 40.57% 7,490
Vigo 24,545 56.17% 18,123 41.47% 1,030 2.36% 6,422 14.70% 43,698
Wabash 10,762 73.72% 3,494 23.93% 342 2.35% 7,268 49.79% 14,598
Warren 3,401 76.03% 974 21.78% 98 2.19% 2,427 54.25% 4,473
Warrick 21,326 62.93% 11,923 35.18% 641 1.89% 9,403 27.75% 33,890
Washington 9,114 75.08% 2,784 22.93% 241 1.99% 6,330 52.15% 12,139
Wayne 17,567 63.47% 9,524 34.41% 588 2.12% 8,043 29.06% 27,679
Wells 10,855 77.10% 2,928 20.80% 297 2.10% 7,927 56.30% 14,080
White 7,957 71.13% 3,032 27.10% 198 1.77% 4,925 44.03% 11,187
Whitley 12,862 73.13% 4,234 24.07% 492 2.80% 8,628 49.06% 17,588
Totals 1,729,863 56.91% 1,242,505 40.87% 67,413 2.22% 487,358 16.04% 3,039,781

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump and Republican candidates won 7 of 9 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 44.8% 53.6% Frank J. Mrvan
2nd 59.4% 38.9% Jackie Walorski
3rd 63.9% 34% Jim Banks
4th 63.8% 34% Jim Baird
5th 50.1% 47.9% Victoria Spartz
6th 68.8% 29.1% Greg Pence
7th 35.3% 62.9% André Carson
8th 65.1% 33.1% Larry Bucshon
9th 60.8% 37.2% Trey Hollingsworth

Analysis

[edit]

Biden significantly reduced the Republican margin in Hamilton County, a suburban county in the Indianapolis metropolitan area that is the state's fourth-most populous county.[39] Hamilton County has never supported a candidate of the Democratic Party for president except for 1912, when the split in the Republicans allowed Woodrow Wilson to carry the county with a 34.9% plurality.[6] Hamilton broke 60%-38% for John McCain in 2008, when Barack Obama won Indiana. Mitt Romney won Hamilton County 66%–32% in 2012 and Trump won it 56%-37% in 2016, nearly identical to his statewide margin. In this election, Trump narrowly won Hamilton County, 52%-45%, a margin that is to the left of the statewide result. Biden's 45% vote share in Hamilton County is higher than that of even Lyndon B. Johnson in his nationwide landslide in 1964 and higher than that of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.[6] Biden's vote share in Hamilton is only equaled by Roosevelt's 44.85% share in his 1932 landslide.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll is sponsored by Karen Tallian's campaign (D)

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  2. ^ "Indiana Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  3. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. ^ "Indiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. ^ a b c "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  7. ^ "Indiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. ^ "Past Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  9. ^ "June 2 contests – Live primary and caucus results, Indiana". Reuters. July 16, 2020. Retrieved April 16, 2022.
  10. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Voting". Indiana Green Party. Retrieved April 28, 2020.[permanent dead link‍]
  11. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  15. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  16. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  17. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  21. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. ^ 270 to Win
  26. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  27. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  28. ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  29. ^ Morning Consult
  30. ^ Swayable
  31. ^ Ragnar Research (R)
  32. ^ SurveyUSA/Election Twitter
  33. ^ Change Research/IndyPolitics
  34. ^ Morning Consult
  35. ^ Victoria Research/Tallian for Attorney General
  36. ^ Indy Politics/Change Research
  37. ^ Zogby Analytics
  38. ^ "Federal Elections 2020" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. October 2022.
  39. ^ "Indiana Counties by Population".

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
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