2002 United States Senate special election in Missouri
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 County results Talent: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Carnahan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2002 United States Senate special election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2002, to decide who would serve the rest of Democrat Mel Carnahan's term, after he died while campaigning and posthumously won the 2000 election. The winner would serve the remainder of the term ending in 2007. Governor Roger Wilson appointed Carnahan's wife Jean, also a Democrat, to serve temporarily. She then decided to run to serve the remainder of the term, but she was narrowly defeated by Republican nominee Jim Talent.
Technically, the race flipped control of the Senate from Democrats to Republicans, but in reality, the Senate had adjourned before Talent could take office, and so no change in leadership occurred until the 108th Congress opened session on January 3, 2003.[1] With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2002 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in South Dakota.
Background
[edit]In the November 2000 elections, Democratic Governor of Missouri Mel Carnahan, who had died in a plane crash three weeks before, remained on the ballot for election to the U.S. Senate. Carnahan received more votes than his Republican opponent, incumbent Senator John Ashcroft, who did not legally contest being defeated by a dead candidate. Lieutenant Governor Roger B. Wilson ascended to serve the remaining three months of Carnahan's gubernatorial term, and promised to appoint Carnahan's widow in her husband's place should Carnahan posthumously defeat Ashcroft. Accordingly, Jean Carnahan was appointed to the Senate effective on January 3, 2001; and a special election was scheduled in 2002 for the balance of Carnahan's Senate term.[2][3]
The Seventeenth Amendment requires that appointments to the Senate last only until a special election is held.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Jean Carnahan, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Darrel D. Day
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jean Carnahan (incumbent) | 368,149 | 83.22 | |
| Democratic | Darrel D. Day | 74,237 | 16.78 | |
| Total votes | 442,386 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Scott Craig Babbitt
- Doris Bass Landfather, St. Louis alderman and perennial candidate
- Martin Lindstedt, perennial candidate
- Joseph A. May, dentist
- Jim Talent, former U.S. Representative and nominee for Governor in 2000
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Talent | 395,994 | 89.58 | |
| Republican | Joseph A. May | 18,525 | 4.19 | |
| Republican | Doris Bass Landfather | 14,074 | 3.18 | |
| Republican | Scott Craig Babbitt | 7,705 | 1.74 | |
| Republican | Martin Lindstedt | 5,773 | 1.31 | |
| Total votes | 442,071 | 100.00 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Tamara A. Millay, perennial candidate
- Edward Joseph Manley
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Tamara A. Millay | 1,942 | 59.35 | |
| Libertarian | Edward Joseph Manley | 1,330 | 40.65 | |
| Total votes | 3,272 | 100.00 | ||
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Jean Carnahan (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Tamara Millay (L), perennial candidate
- Daniel Romano (G)
- Jim Talent (R), former U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2000
Campaign
[edit]National security and Carnahan's vote against fellow Missourian John Ashcroft as attorney general were major issues in the campaign. Republicans argued Carnahan owed her vote to Ashcroft, who had lost his bid for re-election to the Senate to Carnahan's husband.[5] Talent, citing Carnahan's votes against homeland-security legislation and missile defense, accused her of being soft on national security, which she objected to, saying he was "doubt[ing] her patriotism."[6]
Jack Abramoff contributed $2,000 to Talent's 2002 senatorial campaign[7] and Preston Gates & Ellis, a former Abramoff employer, had also contributed $1,000 to Talent's campaign.[8] Talent later returned both contributions.[9] Talent's win returned Republican control of the Senate which had a small Democratic majority after Jim Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an Independent caucusing with Democrats.
Talent's victory wasn't certified until November 21, 2002, one day before Congress adjourned, which prevented them from claiming a senate majority. He automatically became a Senator the following day because, under federal law, he formally took office the day after both chambers of Congress adjourned. Because Republicans would hold the majority in the following congress, they saw no need to hold a special session in the 107th to take advantage of their brief majority.[10][11]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2002 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jean Carnahan (D) |
Jim Talent (R) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[13] | October 31 – November 3, 2002 | 958 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
Results
[edit]Carnahan only won 26 counties and the independent city of St. Louis out of the state's 114 counties. However, she kept the race close by running up margins in St. Louis and in Jackson County home of Kansas City, though her victory in St. Louis County was a close one. Ultimately Talent was able to win the seat by running up decent margins in rural areas of the state.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Talent | 935,032 | 49.80% | +1.41% | |
| Democratic | Jean Carnahan (incumbent) | 913,778 | 48.67% | −1.80% | |
| Libertarian | Tamara A. Millay | 18,345 | 0.98% | +0.55% | |
| Green | Daniel Romano | 10,465 | 0.56% | +0.11% | |
| Majority | 21,254 | 1.13% | −0.94% | ||
| Turnout | 1,877,620 | ||||
| Republican gain from Democratic | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Schuyler (Largest city: Lancaster)
- Bates (Largest city: Butler)
- Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
- Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
- Callaway (Largest city: Fulton)
- Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
- Randolph (Largest city: Moberly)
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ In December 2000, Carnahan was appointed by Governor Roger B. Wilson to begin Mel Carnahan's six-year term, as he was killed in a plane crash and elected posthumously.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ "U.S. Senate: Party Division".
- ^ Witcover, Jules (October 18, 2000). "In Mo., tragic loss for Democrats". Retrieved October 3, 2017.
- ^ "Governor's Widow Goes to Senate". The New York Times. December 6, 2000. Retrieved October 3, 2017.
- ^ a b c "Official Election Returns State of Missouri Primary Election". Office of Secretary of State, Missouri. August 21, 2001. Archived from the original on October 23, 2012. Retrieved May 21, 2013.
- ^ Horner, William T. Showdown in the Show-Me State: The Fight over Conceal-and-carry Gun Laws in Missouri. Page 159. University of Missouri Press, 2005. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
- ^ Expectations Game Plays for Both Mo. Senate Candidates. Fox News. October 22, 2002. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
- ^ "FEC Disclosure Report Search Results". Archived from the original on June 8, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2015.
- ^ "FEC Disclosure Report Search Results". Archived from the original on June 8, 2015. Retrieved March 14, 2015.
- ^ http://www.citizensforethics.org/filelibrary/HotlineListofReturnedDoations01.06.06.pdf[permanent dead link]
- ^ Vlahos, Kelley Beaucar (November 7, 2002). "After the Celebration: What Can a GOP Senate Do?". Retrieved October 3, 2017.
- ^ Mannies, Jo (November 22, 2002). "It's official: With election results certified, Talent will be a senator starting Saturday". St. Louis Dispatch.
- ^ "Senate Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on November 18, 2002. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".