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2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary

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2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary
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32 delegates (24 pledged, 8 unpledged)
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 11 9
Popular vote 68,729 66,826
Percentage 33.37% 32.45%
 
Candidate Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg
Home state Massachusetts New York
Delegate count 4 0
Popular vote 32,055 24,294
Percentage 15.57% 11.80%
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The 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Maine primary, the first in the state since 2000, was a closed primary, meaning that only registered Democrats could vote in this primary, but unenrolled voters were permitted to enroll in a party at the polls with same day registration. The state awarded 32 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, 24 of which were pledged delegates allocated based on the results of the primary. The primary election coincided with a people's veto referendum to reject changes to Maine's vaccination laws.

In a result described as a "stunning upset", the Bangor Daily News and the Associated Press called the primary for former vice president Joe Biden,[1][2] which heavily contrasted Bernie Sanders' win in the 2016 caucus, when he had won with over 60% of the vote against Hillary Clinton.[3][4] Biden won the primary with 33.4% of the vote, heavily exceeding his polling numbers by at least 10 points, while senator Sanders finished second with a more or less expected or slightly underperformed result of 32.4%. With a margin of less than 2,000 votes and especially just around 300 votes in the 1st congressional district, Biden managed to narrowly gain one more delegate than Sanders in both districts, resulting in his win with 11 delegates over Sanders' 9 delegates. Senator Elizabeth Warren also managed to cross the threshold with 15.6% in the state around her home region but only received 4 delegates.

Procedure

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Maine was one of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday",[5] as governor Janet Mills had signed a bill which returned the state's nominating contest from a caucus to a primary (last used between 1996 and 2000), matching a national trend for primaries. Although a bill expanding the use of ranked choice voting to presidential primary and general elections was passed by the legislature, governor Mills delayed implementation until after the 2020 primary.[6]

Voting was expected to take place throughout the state from 6:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening as late as 10:00 a.m. In the closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 24 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, 7 and 9 were allocated to each of the state's 2 congressional districts and another 3 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 5 at-large delegates.[7] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general.[8]

Following municipal caucuses on March 8, 2020, to select delegates for the state convention, the state convention would subsequently be held on May 30, 2020, to vote on all pledged delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 8 unpledged PLEO delegates: 4 members of the Democratic National Committee, 2 members of Congress, of which both were representatives, the governor Janet Mills, and former Senate Majority Leader George J. Mitchell.[7]

Pledged national
convention delegates
Type Del.
CD1 9
CD2 7
PLEO 3
At-large 5
Total pledged delegates 24

Candidates

[edit]

The following candidates were on the ballot in Maine:[9]

Running

Withdrawn

Write-in votes are not allowed in Maine and were counted as blank ballots.[10]

Polling

[edit]
Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Bernie
Sanders 		Joe
Biden 		Michael
Bloomberg 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Tulsi
Gabbard 		Undecided[c]
270 to Win[11] Mar 3, 2020 Feb 10–Mar 2, 2020 28.7% 19.7% 20.0% 13.3% 1.3% 17.0%
RealClear Politics[12] Mar 3, 2020 Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 38.5% 24.5% 14.0% 18.0% –[d] 5.0%
FiveThirtyEight[13] Mar 3, 2020 until Mar 2, 2020 [e] 31.1% 21.7% 17.2% 14.2% 0.7% 19.6%
Average 32.8% 22.0% 17.1% 15.2% 1.0% 11.9%
Maine primary results (March 3, 2020) 32.4% 33.4% 11.8% 15.6% 0.9% 5.9%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Maine Democratic Primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Michael
Bloomberg 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Andrew
Yang 		Other Undecided
Mar 2, 2020 Klobuchar withdraws from the race
Swayable[14] Mar 1–2, 2020 209 (LV) ± 9.0% 22% 28% 10% – 27% 11% – 3%[f] –
Change Research[15] Mar 1–2, 2020 507 (LV) – 24% 10% – – 43% 16% – 7%[g] –
Data for Progress[16] Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 385 (LV) ± 4.9% 25% 18% 1% – 34% 20% – 2%[h] –
Mar 1, 2020 Buttigieg withdraws from the race
SocialSphere/Colby College[17] Feb 10–13, 2020 350 (LV) – 12% 14% 16% – 25% 9% 2% 10%[i] 12%
Feb 11, 2020 Yang withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
Maine People's Resource Center[18] Oct 14–21, 2019 728 (LV) ± 3.63% 26.8% – 9.1% 5.0% 15.4% 22.1% 1.7% 11.4%[j] 4.4%
Public Policy Polling[19] Oct 11–13, 2019 366 (LV) ± 5.1% 19% – 9% 4% 12% 31% 3% 20%[k] –[l]
Gravis Marketing[20] Jun 24, 2019 243 ± 6.3% 25% – 8% 2% 15% 17% 5% 15%[m] 11%

Results

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Results by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[21]
Joe Biden 68,729 33.37 11
Bernie Sanders 66,826 32.45 9
Elizabeth Warren 32,055 15.57 4
Michael Bloomberg 24,294 11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 4,364 2.12
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 2,826 1.37
Tulsi Gabbard 1,815 0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 696 0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 313 0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] 218 0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 201 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 183 0.09
Blank ballots 3,417 1.66
Total 205,937 100% 24


Results by county

[edit]
2020 Maine Democratic primary

(results per county)[9]

County Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang Tom Steyer Deval Patrick Marianne Williamson Cory Booker Blank ballots Total votes cast
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Androscoggin 4,076 34.20 3,639 30.54 1,431 12.01 1,762 14.79 246 2.06 139 1.17 160 1.34 47 0.39 22 0.18 35 0.29 20 0.17 14 0.12 326 2.74 11,917
Aroostook 2,558 46.15 1,256 22.66 361 6.51 851 15.35 88 1.59 50 0.90 34 0.61 28 0.51 14 0.25 11 0.20 11 0.20 16 0.29 265 4.78 5,543
Cumberland 20,555 31.18 22,187 33.66 12,701 19.27 6,766 10.26 1,521 2.31 957 1.45 413 0.63 149 0.23 63 0.10 37 0.06 32 0.05 43 0.07 500 0.76 65,924
Franklin 1,226 33.93 1,329 36.78 414 11.46 390 10.79 49 1.36 40 1.11 40 1.11 18 0.50 11 0.30 16 0.44 7 0.19 5 0.14 68 1.88 3,613
Hancock 2,988 31.28 3,328 34.84 1,756 18.39 1,005 10.52 171 1.79 125 1.31 32 0.34 31 0.32 19 0.20 2 0.02 10 0.10 8 0.08 76 0.80 9,551
Kennebec 5,651 35.59 4,775 30.07 2,222 13.99 2,062 12.99 314 1.98 208 1.31 185 1.17 65 0.41 29 0.18 17 0.11 20 0.13 13 0.08 318 2.00 15,879
Knox 2,586 32.44 2,611 32.75 1,486 18.64 892 11.19 106 1.33 102 1.28 65 0.82 22 0.28 1 0.01 9 0.11 4 0.05 5 0.06 83 1.04 7,972
Lincoln 2,138 34.21 2,020 32.33 979 15.67 753 12.05 117 1.87 86 1.38 47 0.75 17 0.27 5 0.08 21 0.34 2 0.03 4 0.06 60 0.96 6,249
Oxford 2,282 35.52 2,199 34.23 739 11.50 736 11.46 99 1.54 66 1.03 93 1.45 30 0.47 8 0.12 3 0.05 10 0.16 6 0.09 154 2.40 6,425
Penobscot 5,392 33.24 5,526 34.07 2,138 13.18 2,045 12.61 265 1.63 216 1.33 125 0.77 89 0.55 27 0.17 23 0.14 22 0.14 20 0.12 332 2.05 16,220
Piscataquis 520 36.31 425 29.68 147 10.27 234 16.34 22 1.54 17 1.19 8 0.56 7 0.49 2 0.14 2 0.14 4 0.28 3 0.21 41 2.86 1,432
Sagadahoc 2,274 32.15 2,054 29.04 1,245 17.60 830 11.74 128 1.81 94 1.33 69 0.98 14 0.20 10 0.14 3 0.04 3 0.04 1 0.01 347 4.91 7,072
Somerset 1,553 36.46 1,225 28.76 360 8.45 699 16.41 86 2.02 45 1.06 53 1.24 38 0.89 12 0.28 5 0.12 12 0.28 6 0.14 166 3.90 4,260
Waldo 1,902 29.64 2,469 38.48 1,038 16.18 664 10.35 101 1.57 69 1.08 44 0.69 18 0.28 8 0.12 4 0.06 9 0.14 7 0.11 83 1.29 6,416
Washington 1,131 36.41 892 28.72 389 12.52 410 13.20 61 1.96 48 1.55 30 0.97 10 0.32 4 0.13 5 0.16 4 0.13 8 0.26 114 3.67 3,106
York 11,781 35.42 10,454 31.43 4,286 12.88 4,154 12.49 904 2.72 523 1.57 414 1.24 109 0.33 77 0.23 25 0.08 31 0.09 24 0.07 483 1.45 33,265
UOCAVA 116 10.61 437 39.98 363 33.21 41 3.75 86 7.87 41 3.75 3 0.27 4 0.37 1 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.09 1,093
Total 68,729 33.37 66,826 32.45 32,055 15.57 24,294 11.80 4,364 2.12 2,826 1.37 1,815 0.88 696 0.34 313 0.15 218 0.11 201 0.10 183 0.09 3,417 1.66 205,937

See also

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Notes

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Additional candidates

  1. ^ a b c d e f Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the date of the election.
  2. ^ a b c d Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  4. ^ Gabbard not averaged
  5. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  6. ^ Klobuchar with 2%; Steyer with 0%; Gabbard with no voters; "Other" with 1%
  7. ^ Not yet released
  8. ^ Klobuchar and Gabbard with 1%
  9. ^ Klobuchar with 4%; Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; Bennet with 1%; Patrick and "Someone else" with no voters
  10. ^ "Other" with 6.5%; Booker with 2.7% and O'Rourke with 2.2%
  11. ^ Booker with 2%; Castro and O'Rourke with 1%; "someone else/undecided" with 16%
  12. ^ The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.
  13. ^ Ryan with 4%; Booker and Williamson with 3%; Bennet with 2%; Gillibrand, O'Rourke, and Swalwell with 1%; Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Hickenlooper Inslee, and Klobuchar with 0%

References

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  1. ^ Jessica Piper (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Maine's Democratic presidential primary". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  2. ^ Patrick Whittle (March 4, 2020). "Biden squeezes by Sanders in Maine, extends sweep of wins". Associated Press. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  3. ^ "Maine Primary Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  4. ^ Burns, Katelyn (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Maine primary, defeating Bernie Sanders". Vox. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  5. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  6. ^ Thistle, Scott (September 6, 2019). "Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections". Press Herald. Retrieved September 6, 2019.
  7. ^ a b "Maine Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. June 20, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  8. ^ "Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
  9. ^ a b c "March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election: Tabulation of Votes". State of Maine Department of the Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  10. ^ Miller, Kevin (March 7, 2020). "With Trump their only choice, more Maine Republicans than usual left ballots blank". centralmaine.com. Retrieved April 23, 2020.
  11. ^ 270 to Win
  12. ^ RealClear Politics
  13. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  14. ^ Swayable Archived 2020-03-03 at the Wayback Machine
  15. ^ Change Research
  16. ^ Data for Progress
  17. ^ SocialSphere/Colby College
  18. ^ Maine People's Resource Center
  19. ^ Public Policy Polling
  20. ^ Gravis Marketing
  21. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Maine Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
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