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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine
← 2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2014 →
All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 2 0
Seats won 2 0
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 427,819 265,982
Percentage 61.66% 38.34%
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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election and an election to the U.S. Senate. Democrats would not win both of Maine's congressional districts again until 2018.

Overview

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United States House of Representatives elections in Maine, 2012 [1]
Party Votes Percentage Seats before Seats after +/–
Democratic 427,819 61.66% 2 2 -
Republican 265,982 38.34% 0 0 -
Totals 693,801 100% 2 2 -

Redistricting

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Unlike most states, which will pass or have passed redistricting laws to redraw the boundaries of their congressional districts based on the 2010 United States census in advance of the 2012 elections, Maine law requires that redistricting be done in 2013. In March 2011, a lawsuit was filed asking a U.S. district judge to ensure redistricting is completed in time for the 2012 elections. According to the Census, the 1st district had a population of 8,669 greater than that of the 2nd district.[2] The Maine Democratic Party, which opposes the lawsuit, was granted intervenor status, and argues that the lawsuit constitutes an attempt by the Maine Republican Party to force Representatives Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, both of whom are Democrats, to run in the same district.[3] On June 9, 2011, a panel of three federal judges agreed that failing to redistrict would be unconstitutional, and that the state should redraw the boundaries of its districts immediately.[4]

Governor Paul LePage will call a special session of the Maine Legislature on September 27 to consider a redistricting plan.[5] On August 15, both Republicans and Democrats released redistricting proposals. The Republican plan would move Lincoln County, Knox County (including Pingree's hometown of North Haven) and Sagadahoc County from the 1st district to the 2nd, and move Oxford County and Androscoggin County from the 2nd district to the 1st, thereby making the 2nd district more favorable to Republicans. The Democratic plan, meanwhile, would not significantly change the current districts: only Vassalboro would be moved from the 1st district to the 2nd.[6]

District 1

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See also: Maine's 1st congressional district

Democrat Chellie Pingree, who had represented Maine's 1st congressional district since 2009, was gathering signatures to run for the U.S. Senate, but she decided not to run.[7][8] State senator Cynthia Dill and state representative Jon Hinck, both of whom are Democrats, picked up petitions to run in the 1st district. However, after Pingree stepped out of the Senate race, Dill and Hinck returned, campaigning for U.S. Senate.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Withdrawn
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Primary results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 31,965 100.0
Total votes 31,965 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Patrick Calder, merchant marine[10]
Declined
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Primary results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jonathan Courtney 14,558 50.4
Republican Patrick Calder 14,330 49.6
Total votes 28,888 100.0

Independents

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Declined

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General election

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Polling

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Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Chellie
Pingree (D) 		Jon
Courtney (R) 		Undecided
MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)[11] November 1–3, 2012 469 ± 3.3% 62% 34% 4%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group[12] September 24–28, 2012 198 ± 7.0% 57% 24% 19%
MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)[13] September 15–17, 2012 444 ± 4.3% 60% 32% 8%
Critical Insights (Portland Press Herald)[14] June 20–25, 2012 615 ± 4.0% 57% 31% 12%
Maine People's Resource Center (D)[15] March 31–April 2, 2012 522 ± 4.3% 61% 28% 11%

Results

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Maine's 1st congressional district, 2012 [1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 236,363 64.8
Republican Jonathan Courtney 128,440 35.2
Total votes 364,803 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

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See also: Maine's 2nd congressional district

Democrat Mike Michaud, who had represented Maine's 2nd congressional district since 2003, decided not to run for the U.S. Senate, and was running for a sixth term in the United States House of Representatives.[16] David Costa, a concierge at the Portland Harbor Hotel; Wellington Lyons, a lawyer; and David Lemoine, a former state treasurer, had taken out papers to seek the Democratic nomination to succeed Michaud had he run for Senate.[9] Emily Cain, the minority leader of the Maine House of Representatives, had also planned to seek the Democratic nomination in the 2nd district if Michaud decided to run for the Senate seat.[17]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Declined
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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Michaud (incumbent) 21,895 100.0
Total votes 21,895 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Blaine Richardson, retired naval veteran
Declined
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  • Jason Levesque, businessman and nominee for this seat in 2010[19]

Primary results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Raye 18,703 60.0
Republican Blaine R. Richardson 12,465 40.0
Total votes 31,168 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Mike Michaud (D)

Organizations

Kevin Raye (R)

Organizations

Polling

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Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mike
Michaud (D) 		Kevin
Raye (R) 		Undecided
MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)[11] November 1–3, 2012 469 ± 3.3% 50% 46% 4%
Eaton River Strategies/Scientific Marketing & Analysis (R-Raye)[22] October 10–11, 2012 1,200 ± 2.8% 47% 40% 13%
Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)[23] October 8–9, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 58% 33% 9%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group[12] September 24–28, 2012 202 ± 6.9% 52% 32% 16%
MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)[24] September 15–17, 2012 410 ± 4.3% 56% 37% 7%
Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)[25] June 25–27, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 62% 30% 8%
Critical Insights (Portland Press Herald)[14] June 20–25, 2012 615 ± 4.0% 47% 35% 18%
Maine People's Resource Center (D)[15] March 31–April 2, 2012 471 ± 4.5% 53% 37% 10%
Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)[26] January 23–25, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 55% 32% 13%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Safe D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[28] Safe D November 2, 2012
Roll Call[29] Safe D November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Safe D November 5, 2012
NY Times[31] Safe D November 4, 2012
RCP[32] Lean D November 4, 2012
The Hill[33] Likely D November 4, 2012

Results

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Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2012 [1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mike Michaud (incumbent) 191,456 58.2
Republican Kevin Raye 137,542 41.8
Total votes 328,998 100.0
Democratic hold

References

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  1. ^ a b c "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections Division". Main Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commission, Elections. Archived from the original on August 1, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
  2. ^ "Lawsuit aims to speed Maine redistricting". Bangor Daily News. March 29, 2011. Archived from the original on April 7, 2011. Retrieved May 25, 2011.
  3. ^ Hench, David (April 27, 2011). "Federal judges to review redistricting lawsuit". Kennebec Journal. Archived from the original on May 3, 2011. Retrieved May 25, 2011.
  4. ^ Canfield, Clarke (June 9, 2011). "Maine's congressional districts must be redrawn". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
  5. ^ Miller, Joshua (August 4, 2011). "Maine Legislature Will Hold Special Session on Redistricting Plan". Roll Call. Retrieved August 5, 2011.
  6. ^ Russell, Eric (August 15, 2011). "Republicans' redistricting plan would add more GOP voters to 2nd District". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  7. ^ Russell, Eric (February 29, 2012). "Michaud, Pingree and Baldacci may seek Olympia Snowe's seat; King, Raye and Cutler also considering". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  8. ^ Riskind, Jonathan (March 7, 2012). "Pingree won't run for U.S. Senate".
  9. ^ a b c Murphy, Edward D. (February 29, 2012). "Baldacci, Michaud, Pingree take out papers for Senate seat". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  10. ^ a b c d Gagnon, Matthew (June 30, 2011). "The Next David To Pingree's Goliath". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 8, 2011.
  11. ^ a b MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)
  12. ^ a b Pan Atlantic SMS Group
  13. ^ MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)
  14. ^ a b Critical Insights (Portland Press Herald)
  15. ^ a b Maine People's Resource Center (D)
  16. ^ Russell, Eric (March 1, 2012). "Michaud to stay in House race; Republicans cautiously considering Senate seat". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  17. ^ a b c Higgins, A.J. (February 29, 2012). "Maine Lawmakers Stampede to Qualify for Ballot in Wake of Snowe's Departure". Maine Public Broadcasting Network. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  18. ^ Mistler, Steve (January 5, 2012). "Raye will challenge Michaud for congressional seat". Lewiston Sun Journal. Retrieved January 5, 2012.
  19. ^ Miller, Joshua (July 13, 2011). "GOP Sees Opportunity With Maine House Seat". Roll Call. Retrieved July 14, 2011.
  20. ^ "Blue Dog Membership". bluedogdems.ngpvanhost.com. Blue Dog Coalition. Archived from the original on October 28, 2012. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  21. ^ "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on October 29, 2012. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  22. ^ Eaton River Strategies/Scientific Marketing & Analysis (R-Raye)
  23. ^ Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)
  24. ^ MPRC/Maine People's Alliance (D)
  25. ^ Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)
  26. ^ Normington, Petts & Associates (D-Michaud)
  27. ^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
  28. ^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  29. ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012
  30. ^ Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012
  31. ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
  32. ^ [2], as of November 4, 2012
  33. ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
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