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2012 Washington gubernatorial election

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2012 Washington gubernatorial election
← 2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016 →
 
Nominee Jay Inslee Rob McKenna
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,582,802 1,488,245
Percentage 51.4% 48.3%
Inslee:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McKenna:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Christine Gregoire
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Inslee
Democratic

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The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012.[1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012[2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election.[3]

Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term.[4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign.[5]

Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later.[6]

Primary election

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Democratic candidates

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Declined

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Republican candidates

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Declined

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Independent candidates

[edit]
  • Christian Joubert
  • L. Dale Sorgen, computer programmer and former pastor[18]
  • James White

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Rob
McKenna (R) 		Jay
Inslee (D) 		Lisa
Brown (D) 		Dow
Constantine (D) 		Clint
Didier (R) 		Bill
Bryant (R) 		Brian
Sonntag (D) 		Aaron
Reardon (D) 		Undecided
Chism Strategies[19] June 28–30, 2011 408 (LV) ± 5.0% 20% 17% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 49%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Inslee—40–50%
  Inslee—50–60%
  McKenna—40–50%
  McKenna—50–60%
  McKenna—60–70%
Blanket primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Inslee 664,534 47.13%
Republican Rob McKenna 604,872 42.90%
Republican Shahram Hadian 46,169 3.27%
Democratic Rob Hill 45,453 3.22%
Independent James White 13,764 0.98%
Independent Christian Joubert 10,457 0.74%
Independent L. Dale Sorgen 9,734 0.69%
Republican Max Sampson 8,753 0.62%
Republican Javier O. Lopez 6,131 0.43%
Total votes 1,409,867 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[21] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[23] Tilt D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[24] Tossup November 5, 2012

Endorsements

[edit]
Jay Inslee (D)

U.S Presidents

Newspapers

Rob McKenna (R)

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Jay
Inslee (D) 		Rob
McKenna (R) 		Other/Undecided
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[29] October 14 – November 3, 2012 November 3, 2012 47.3% 46.3% 6.4% Inslee +1.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jay
Inslee (D) 		Rob
McKenna (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30] November 1–3, 2012 932 ± 3.2% 50% 48% 2%
KING5/SurveyUSA[31] October 28–31, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 47% 46% 7%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll[32] October 18–31, 2012 632 ± 3.9% 49% 46% 6%
Elway Poll[33] October 18–21, 2012 451 ± 4.5% 45% 47% 10%
Strategies360[34] October 17–20, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
Public Policy Polling/WCV[35] October 15–16, 2012 574 ± n/a% 48% 42% 10%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll[36] October 1–16, 2012 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[37] October 14, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 45% 9%
SurveyUSA[38] October 12–14, 2012 543 ± 4.3% 47% 44% 9%
SurveyUSA[39] September 28–30, 2012 540 ± 4.3% 48% 42% 10%
Rasmussen Reports[40] September 26, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 45% 9%
Public Elway Poll[41] September 9–12, 2012 405 ± 5% 44% 41% 15%
Public Policy Polling[42] September 7–9, 2012 563 ± 4.2% 48% 42% 10%
Survey USA[43] September 7–9, 2012 524 ± 4.4% 49% 44% 7%
Survey USA[44] August 2–3, 2012 524 ± 4.4% 48% 45% 7%
Elway Poll[45] July 18–22, 2012 405 ± 5.0% 43% 36% 21%
Survey USA[46] July 16–17, 2012 630 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling[47] June 14–17, 2012 1,073 ± 3.0% 40% 43% 17%
Elway Poll[48] June 13–16, 2012 408 ± 5.0% 40% 42% 18%
Strategies360[49] May 22–24, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 39% 43% 18%
Survey USA[50] May 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 38% 40% 22%
Grove Insights (D)[51][A] March 26–28, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 38% 34% 28%
Grove Insights (D)[52][A] February 21–23, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 38% 38% 24%
Public Policy Polling[53] February 16–19, 2012 1,264 ± 2.8% 42% 42% 16%
Survey USA[54] February 13–15, 2012 572 ± 4.2% 39% 49% 12%
Elway Poll[55] February 7–9, 2012 405 ± 5.0% 36% 45% 19%
Survey USA[56] January 12–16, 2012 617 ± 4.0% 43% 46% 11%
Survey USA[57] November 21–23, 2011 549 ± 4.3% 38% 44% 17%
Washington Poll[58] October 10–30, 2011 938 ± 3.2% 38% 44% 18%
Survey USA[59] September 21–22, 2011 529 ± 4.3% 38% 44% 18%
Survey USA[60] June 24–26, 2011 600 ± 4.4% 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling[61] May 12–15, 2011 1,098 ± 3.0% 38% 40% 22%
Survey USA[62] April 27–28, 2011 610 ± 4.0% 41% 48% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Christine
Gregoire (D) 		Rob
McKenna (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61] May 12–15, 2011 1,098 ± 3.0% 40% 49% 11%
Survey USA[62] April 27–28, 2011 610 ± 4.0% 40% 52% 7%

Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Christine
Gregoire (D) 		Dave
Reichert (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61] May 12–15, 2011 1,098 ± 3.0% 45% 41% 14%
Survey USA[62] April 27–28, 2011 610 ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jay
Inslee (D) 		Dave
Reichert (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61] May 12–15, 2011 1,098 ± 3.0% 42% 36% 22%
Survey USA[62] April 27–28, 2011 610 ± 4.0% 44% 46% 10%

Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Lisa
Brown (D) 		Rob
McKenna (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[63] July 27-August 1, 2010 1,204 ± 2.8% 29% 47% 24%

Results

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The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast.[64] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening.[65]

Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory.[66]

2012 Washington gubernatorial election[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jay Inslee 1,582,802 51.40% −1.84%
Republican Rob McKenna 1,488,245 48.33% +1.57%
Write-in 8,416 0.28% N/A
Majority 94,557 3.07%
Total votes 3,079,639 100.00%
Democratic hold Swing -3.41%

By county

[edit]
County[68] Jay Inslee
Democratic 		Rob McKenna
Republican 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # %
Adams 1,408 29.78% 3,320 70.22% -1,912 -40.44% 4,728
Asotin 4,027 41.50% 5,677 58.50% -1,650 -17.00% 9,704
Benton 27,291 34.97% 50,757 65.03% -23,466 -30.07% 78,048
Chelan 11,616 36.41% 20,291 63.59% -8,675 -27.19% 31,907
Clallam 17,516 46.66% 20,021 53.34% -2,505 -6.67% 37,537
Clark 86,732 46.92% 98,131 53.08% -11,399 -6.17% 184,863
Columbia 656 29.54% 1,565 70.46% -909 -40.93% 2,221
Cowlitz 21,051 48.21% 22,612 51.79% -1,561 -3.58% 43,663
Douglas 4,746 31.88% 10,139 68.12% -5,393 -36.23% 14,885
Ferry 1,299 37.98% 2,121 62.02% -822 -24.04% 3,420
Franklin 8,181 36.50% 14,232 63.50% -6,051 -27.00% 22,413
Garfield 333 26.58% 920 73.42% -587 -46.85% 1,253
Grant 8,654 31.59% 18,742 68.41% -10,088 -36.82% 27,396
Grays Harbor 14,491 50.90% 13,978 49.10% 513 1.80% 28,469
Island 19,324 46.67% 22,082 53.33% -2,758 -6.66% 41,406
Jefferson 12,176 62.29% 7,370 37.71% 4,806 24.59% 19,546
King 590,879 62.36% 356,713 37.64% 234,166 24.71% 947,592
Kitsap 60,578 49.72% 61,261 50.28% -683 -0.56% 121,839
Kittitas 7,137 39.90% 10,752 60.10% -3,615 -20.21% 17,889
Klickitat 4,442 44.07% 5,638 55.93% -1,196 -11.87% 10,080
Lewis 11,865 35.03% 22,002 64.97% -10,137 -29.93% 33,867
Lincoln 1,716 29.57% 4,088 70.43% -2,372 -40.87% 5,804
Mason 13,175 47.25% 14,708 52.75% -1,533 -5.50% 27,883
Okanogan 6,759 40.55% 9,909 59.45% -3,150 -18.90% 16,668
Pacific 5,379 51.73% 5,020 48.27% 359 3.45% 10,399
Pend Oreille 2,442 37.06% 4,148 62.94% -1,706 -25.89% 6,590
Pierce 164,211 48.54% 174,078 51.46% -9,867 -2.92% 338,289
San Juan 6,763 64.82% 3,671 35.18% 3,092 29.63% 10,434
Skagit 25,878 47.33% 28,803 52.67% -2,925 -5.35% 54,681
Skamania 2,434 45.92% 2,867 54.08% -433 -8.17% 5,301
Snohomish 166,452 51.23% 158,440 48.77% 8,012 2.47% 324,892
Spokane 95,354 43.49% 123,894 56.51% -28,540 -13.02% 219,248
Stevens 7,426 33.79% 14,554 66.21% -7,128 -32.43% 21,980
Thurston 67,353 53.75% 57,948 46.25% 9,405 7.51% 125,301
Wahkiakum 964 42.83% 1,287 57.17% -323 -14.35% 2,251
Walla Walla 9,353 38.03% 15,238 61.97% -5,885 -23.93% 24,591
Whatcom 53,599 53.10% 47,340 46.90% 6,259 6.20% 100,939
Whitman 7,351 43.83% 9,421 56.17% -2,070 -12.34% 16,772
Yakima 31,791 41.67% 44,507 58.33% -12,716 -16.67% 76,298
Totals 1,582,802 51.54% 1,488,245 48.46% 94,557 3.08% 3,071,047
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Inslee won 5 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 5 going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat.[69]

District Inslee McKenna Representative
1st 48% 52% Suzan DelBene
2nd 54% 46% Rick Larsen
3rd 46% 54% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 37% 63% Doc Hastings
5th 42% 58% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 51% 49% Norm Dicks
Derek Kilmer
7th 74% 26% Jim McDermott
8th 43% 57% Dave Reichert
9th 61% 39% Adam Smith
10th 51% 49% Denny Heck

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Service Employees International Union, which supports Inslee

References

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  1. ^ "Washington's 2012 elections". Balletopedia - The Encyclopedia of American Politics. Balletopedia. Archived from the original on May 8, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
  2. ^ "RCW 29a.04.311: Primaries". apps.leg.wa.gov. Archived from the original on August 13, 2011. Retrieved July 2, 2011.
  3. ^ Pages - Top 2 Primary Archived April 25, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ a b Garber, Andrew (June 13, 2011). "2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on June 16, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2011.
  5. ^ Grygiel, Chris (March 10, 2012). "US Rep. Inslee to resign for Wash. gov. race". The News Tribune. Associated Press.[dead link]
  6. ^ Brunner, Jim (November 10, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
  7. ^ "Inslee Announcement Prompts More Democratic Interest" Archived 2011-06-29 at the Wayback Machine, Roll Call Politics
  8. ^ "Lisa Brown endorses Inslee"[dead link]
  9. ^ "Inslee Running for Gov; Constantine Cheers Him on Facebook - PubliCola". 30 June 2011. Archived from the original on 30 June 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2011.
  10. ^ 2012 races take shape - Elections - The Olympian[dead link]
  11. ^ Haglund, Noah (October 19, 2011). "Aaron Reardon says he has no plans to run for governor or Congress". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on October 22, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  12. ^ Sims Quits HUD Post, Hotline On Call Archived June 16, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ^ Garber, Andrew (July 5, 2011). "Brian Sonntag will not run for governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on July 9, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
  14. ^ "State auditor Brian Sonntag makes decision on governor's race-KING5.com Seattle". Archived from the original on July 28, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
  15. ^ Cornfield, Jerry (August 9, 2011). "Everett pastor enters governor race". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  16. ^ Brunner, Jim (June 8, 2011). "McKenna launches campaign for governor". The Seattle Times.
  17. ^ a b Connelly, Joel (June 8, 2011). "Reichert: I'll support McKenna for governor". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Archived from the original on June 10, 2011. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
  18. ^ Rathbun, Andy (November 19, 2009). "Sultan man declares 2012 governor bid". The Herald (Everett). Archived from the original on July 28, 2012. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
  19. ^ Chism Strategies Archived 2011-09-15 at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ "August 07, 2012 Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  21. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  22. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  23. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  24. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  25. ^ "Obama Endorses Jay Inslee". The Stranger.
  26. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Updated: Gubernatorial newspaper endorsement tally: 12 recommend Rob McKenna, while Olympian gives Jay Inslee the nod". The Seattle Times. October 24, 2020.
  27. ^ "The Stranger Election Control Board's Endorsements For the November 6, 2012, General Election". The Stranger. October 17, 2012.
  28. ^ a b c "Democrats for McKenna (D4R) Launches". June 12, 2012.
  29. ^ Real Clear Politics
  30. ^ Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ KING5/SurveyUSA
  32. ^ KCTS 9/Washington Poll
  33. ^ Elway Poll
  34. ^ Strategies360
  35. ^ Public Policy Polling/WCV
  36. ^ KCTS 9/Washington Poll
  37. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  38. ^ SurveyUSA
  39. ^ SurveyUSA
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ Public Elway Poll
  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Survey USA
  44. ^ Survey USA
  45. ^ Elway Poll
  46. ^ Survey USA
  47. ^ Public Policy Polling
  48. ^ Elway Poll
  49. ^ Strategies360
  50. ^ Survey USA
  51. ^ Grove Insights (D)
  52. ^ Grove Insights (D)
  53. ^ Public Policy Polling
  54. ^ Survey USA
  55. ^ Elway Poll
  56. ^ Survey USA
  57. ^ Survey USA
  58. ^ Washington Poll
  59. ^ Survey USA
  60. ^ Survey USA
  61. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  62. ^ a b c d Survey USA
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ "Inslee vs. McKenna could drag on". The Seattle Times. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  65. ^ Brunner, Jim (November 9, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  66. ^ Johnson, Kirk (November 28, 2012). "In West's 'Democratopolis,' Winning an Election With Only 8 of 39 Counties". The New York Times. p. A22. Archived from the original on March 2, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  67. ^ "Washington gubernatorial election, 2012". Ballotpedia. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  68. ^ "Governor - County Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  69. ^ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report).
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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