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2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota

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2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota

← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →
 
Nominee Kristi Noem Matt Varilek
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 207,640 153,789
Percentage 57.4% 42.6%

County results
Noem:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Varilek:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Kristi Noem
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Kristi Noem
Republican

The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the single U.S. Representative from South Dakota's At-large congressional district, comprising the entire state of South Dakota. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Primary results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Matt Varilek 21,759 71.9
Democratic Jeff Barth 8,494 28.1
Total votes 30,253 100.0

General election

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kristi
Noem (R)
Matt
Varilek (D)
Undecided
Nielson Brothers Polling[5] October 31 – November 4, 2012 633 ± 3.90% 54% 41% 5%
Nielson Brothers Polling[6] October 28–31, 2012 671 ± 3.78% 50% 44% 5%
Nielson Brothers Polling[7] August 29 – September 6, 2012 509 ± 4.34% 51% 42% 7%
Nielson Brothers Polling[8] July 19–23, 2012 541 ± 4.21% 47% 46% 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kristi
Noem (R)
Stephanie
H. Sandlin (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[9] January 28–30, 2011 1,045 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%

Endorsements

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Matt Varilek (D)

Organizations

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Likely R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[12] Safe R November 2, 2012
Roll Call[13] Safe R November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely R November 5, 2012
NY Times[15] Safe R November 4, 2012
RCP[16] Safe R November 4, 2012
The Hill[17] Safe R November 4, 2012

Results

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South Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2012[18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kristi Noem (incumbent) 207,640 57.45% +9.33%
Democratic Matt Varilek 153,789 42.55% −3.34%
Total votes '361,429' '100.0%' N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  1. ^ a b Luther, Megan (July 16, 2011). "Rep. Noem gears up for re-election campaign". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 20, 2011.[permanent dead link]
  2. ^ Hayworth, Bret (December 2, 2011). "Politically Speaking: Varilek enters race for South Dakota congressional seat". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved December 2, 2011.
  3. ^ "Stephanie Herseth Sandlin officially announces she will not run for office in 2012". Argus Leader. January 21, 2011. Retrieved January 29, 2011.[permanent dead link]
  4. ^ "Statewide Races". Secretary of State of South Dakota. June 25, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
  5. ^ "Nielson Brothers Polling" (PDF).
  6. ^ "McGovern, Noem have leads in newly released poll results | The Daily Republic | Mitchell, South Dakota". November 5, 2012. Archived from the original on November 5, 2012.
  7. ^ "Poll: Noem opens lead of nine points | The Daily Republic | Mitchell, South Dakota". September 26, 2012. Archived from the original on September 26, 2012.
  8. ^ "Final July Survey Candidates and Issues | PDF". Scribd.
  9. ^ "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
  10. ^ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  11. ^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
  12. ^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  13. ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012
  14. ^ Crystal Ball Archived April 20, 2023, at the Wayback Machine, as of November 5, 2012
  15. ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
  16. ^ [2], as of November 4, 2012
  17. ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  18. ^ "Secretary of State — Statewide Races" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2012.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)