2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota

2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota
	Klobuchar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Bills: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes
U.S. senator before election; Amy Klobuchar; Democratic (DFL)	Elected U.S. Senator ; Amy Klobuchar; Democratic (DFL)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar faced Republican State Representative Kurt Bills. Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Bills by almost one million votes and carrying all but two of the state's 87 counties by double digits, only narrowly losing the counties of Pipestone and Rock in the state's southwest corner.^[1] This election marked the first time since 1996 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected and the first time since 1976 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected to this seat.

Background

Incumbent Amy Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 to succeed the retiring DFL incumbent Mark Dayton. She beat Republican nominee Mark Kennedy, 58% to 38%. Klobuchar served as Minnesota's only senator between January 3 and July 7, 2009, due to the contested results of Minnesota's senatorial election held the previous year, finally decided in favor of DFLer Al Franken.

DFL primary

The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.^[2]

Candidates

Declared

Dick Franson, perennial candidate^[3]
Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator
Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate^[4]^[5]
Darryl Stanton

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic (DFL)	Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)	183,702	90.79
	Democratic (DFL)	Dick Franson	6,832	3.38
	Democratic (DFL)	Jack Shepard	6,638	3.28
	Democratic (DFL)	Darryl Stanton	5,160	2.55
Total votes			202,332	100

Republican primary

The Republican Party of Minnesota held its nominating convention in May 2012 and held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.^[2]

Candidates

Declared

Kurt Bills, state representative; won May 2012 convention nomination^[7]
David Carlson, former Marine Corps sergeant; candidate in August 2012 primary
Bob Carney Jr., inventor, independent businessman; finished 2nd in 2010 GOP primary for Governor of Minnesota, candidate in August 2012 primary^[8]

Withdrew

Joe Arwood, St. Bonifacius city councilman; withdrew before May 2012 convention
Pete Hegseth, executive director of Vets for Freedom; withdrew after May 2012 convention
Anthony Hernandez, former state senate candidate; withdrew before May 2012 convention to run for Congress against Betty McCollum
Dan Severson, former state representative; withdrew after May 2012 convention

Results

Republican primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kurt Bills	63,380	51.12
	Republican	David Carlson	43,847	35.37
	Republican	Bob Carney, Jr.	16,755	13.51
Total votes			123,982	100

Independence primary

Campaign

The Independence Party of Minnesota did not plan to run a candidate in the general election. Party chairman Mark Jenkins said in November 2011 that he saw the Senate election as "a distraction from having our best and brightest engaged in state legislative races".^[9] At the party's convention in June 2012, neither candidate was endorsed. Williams won a majority of the votes and came within two votes of the required 60% needed for the party's endorsement. He proceeded with his run for the Senate but the party focused its attention on state legislative races.^[10]

Candidates

Stephen Williams, farmer and Independence Party endorsed candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[11]
Glen R. Anderson Menze, accountant and Republican nominee in 2008 and Independence Party nominee in 2010 for the 7th congressional district^[11]

Results

Independence Party primary results^[6]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Independence	Stephen Williams	3,068	59.67
	Independence	Glen R. Anderson Menze	2,074	40.33
Total votes			5,142	100

General election

Candidates

Amy Klobuchar (DFL), incumbent U.S. Senator
Kurt Bills (Republican), State Representative
Stephen Williams Archived November 9, 2012, at the Wayback Machine (Independence), Farmer
Michael Cavlan, (Minnesota Open Progressives) Registered Nurse
Tim Davis, (Grassroots), Environmental Activist

Debates

On August 29 Klobuchar and Bills held their second debate at the State Fair, sponsored by MPR News. Their third debate, on September 16 in Duluth, was about the nation's struggle with deficit spending and unemployment. The audience was assembled by the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce and Duluth News Tribune.^[12] External links

Complete video at Minnesota Public Radio, second debate, August 29, 2012
Audio from Minnesota Public Radio, third debate, September 18, 2012

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt	Current Through
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	$6,301,413	$2,530,567	$5,393,798	$0	July 25, 2012
Kurt Bills (R)	$394,547	$388,720	$5,841	$0	July 25, 2012
Source: Federal Election Commission^[13]

Top contributors

This section lists the top contributors by employer. These organizations themselves didn't donate, but these numbers include donations from their PACs, members, employees, owners, and their immediate families.

Amy Klobuchar	Contribution	Kurt Bills	Contribution
Dorsey & Whitney	$61,100	Liberty PAC	$10,000
Target Corp	$56,050	Craw	$10,000
General Mills	$51,750	Primera Technology	$10,000
U.S. Bancorp	$51,139	Minnesota Limited Pipeline	$7,500
Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi	$49,150	Ameriprise Financial	$5,000
Medtronic Inc.	$41,025	Bachmann for Congress	$5,000
Toys R Us	$36,500	Exactdrive	$5,000
Leonard, Street & Deinard	$34,350	New Spark Holdings	$5,000
Comcast Corp	$33,623	TACPAC	$5,000
Wells Fargo	$32,400	Twin City Fan Companies	$5,000
Source: OpenSecrets,^[14] Current through: March 9, 2012

Top industries

Amy Klobuchar	Contribution	Kurt Bills	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$989,929	Leadership PACs	$17,850
Retired	$447,082	Republican/Conservative	$13,750
Leadership PACs	$302,150	Financial Institutions	$13,250
Lobbyists	$282,430	Real Estate	$12,550
Financial Institutions	$269,033	Retired	$10,350
Entertainment industry	$256,711	Energy Industry	$10,250
Women's Issues	$196,866	Electronics Manufacturing	$10,000
Retail industry	$181,850	Misc. Business	$9,450
Commercial Banks	$159,139	Manufacturing & Distributing	$7,850
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$149,725	Computers/Internet	$7,350
Source: OpenSecrets,^[15] Current through: March 9, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[16]	Solid D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[17]	Safe D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[18]	Safe D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[19]	Safe D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Kurt Bills (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	May 31 – June 3, 2012	973	±3.1%	55%	29%	—	16%
Survey USA^[21]	July 17–19, 2012	552	±4.3%	55%	31%	5%	9%
KSTP/Survey USA^[22]	September 6–9, 2012	551	±4.2%	55%	34%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling^[23]	September 10–11, 2012	824	±3.4%	55%	36%	—	10%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon^[24]	September 17–19, 2012	800	±3.5%	57%	28%	7%	8%
Public Policy Polling^[25]	October 5–8, 2012	937	±3.2%	57%	31%	—	12%
SurveyUSA/KSTP^[26]	October 12–14, 2012	550	±4.2%	58%	30%	5%	7%
St. Cloud State U.^[27]	October 15–21, 2012	600	±5%	63%	36%	1%	—
Rasmussen Reports^[28]	October 21, 2012	500	±4.5%	56%	33%	2%	9%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon^[29]	October 23–25, 2012	800	±3.5%	65%	22%	—	13%
SurveyUSA^[30]	October 26–28, 2012	574	±4.1%	60%	29%	4%	7%
KSTP/SurveyUSA^[31]	November 1–3, 2012	556	±4.2%	60%	30%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	November 2–3, 2012	1,164	±2.9%	62%	32%	—	6%

Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Michele Bachmann	Laura Brod	Norm Coleman	Chip Cravaack	Tom Emmer	John Kline	Erik Paulsen	Tim Pawlenty	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[33]	December 4–5, 2010	387	±5.0%	36%	4%	14%	7%	6%	5%	2%	20%	6%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Joe Arwood (R)	Other	Undecided
Survey USA^[34]	November 2–6, 2011	543	±4.3%	56%	22%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling^[35]	January 21–22, 2012	1,236	±2.8%	55%	30%	—	15%
Survey USA^[36]	January 31 – February 2, 2012	542	±4.2%	59%	28%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[20]	May 31 – June 3, 2012	973	±3.1%	56%	29%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Michele Bachmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[37]	December 4–5, 2010	949	±3.2%	56%	39%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling^[38]	May 27–30, 2011	1,179	±2.9%	57%	37%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling^[35]	January 21–22, 2012	1,236	±2.8%	58%	35%	—	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Norm Coleman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[37]	December 4–5, 2010	949	±3.2%	54%	40%	—	6%
Survey USA^[34]	November 2–6, 2011	543	±4.3%	50%	37%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Tom Emmer (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[37]	December 4–5, 2010	949	±3.2%	56%	38%	—	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Pete Hegseth (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	May 31 – June 3, 2012	973	±3.1%	56%	28%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Anthony Hernandez (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[35]	January 21–22, 2012	1,236	±2.8%	55%	29%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Erik Paulsen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[37]	December 4–5, 2010	949	±3.2%	52%	34%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Tim Pawlenty (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[37]	December 4–5, 2010	949	±3.2%	53%	43%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling^[38]	May 27–30, 2011	1,179	±2.9%	54%	41%	—	5%
Survey USA^[34]	November 2–6, 2011	543	±4.3%	49%	37%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[35]	January 21–22, 2012	1,236	±2.8%	54%	39%	—	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Dan Severson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[38]	May 27–30, 2011	1,179	±2.9%	56%	28%	—	16%
Survey USA^[34]	November 2–6, 2011	543	±4.3%	55%	23%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling^[35]	January 21–22, 2012	1,236	±2.8%	55%	32%	—	13%
Survey USA^[36]	January 31 – February 2, 2012	542	±4.3%	56%	29%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling^[20]	May 31 – June 3, 2012	973	±3.1%	55%	27%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	Dave Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[38]	May 27–30, 2011	1,179	±2.9%	55%	28%	—	17%

Results

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2012^[39]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic (DFL)	Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)	1,854,595	65.23%	+7.17%
	Republican	Kurt Bills	867,974	30.53%	−7.41%
	Independence	Stephen Williams	73,539	2.59%	−0.64%
	Grassroots	Tim Davis	30,531	1.07%	N/A
	Open Progressives	Michael Cavlan	13,986	0.49%	N/A
	Write-in		2,582	0.09%	+0.05%
Total votes			2,843,207	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Carver (Largest city: Chaska)
Redwood (largest city: Redwood Falls)
Wright (Largest city: Otsego)
Sherburne (Largest city: Elk River)
Otter Tail (Largest city: Fergus Falls)
Wadena (Largest city: Wadena)

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.^[40]

District	Klobuchar	Bills	Representative
1st	62.45%	32.22%	Tim Walz
2nd	61.73%	34.4%	John Kline
3rd	62.6%	34.33%	Erik Paulsen
4th	71.26%	24.66%	Betty McCollum
5th	78.71%	17.09%	Keith Ellison
6th	58.59%	37.15%	Michele Bachmann
7th	61.23%	34.15%	Collin Peterson
8th	65.32%	30.64%	Rick Nolan

References

^ "2012 General Election for U.S. Senator" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2019.
^ ^a ^b "Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates". Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved June 20, 2012.
^ Grow, Doug (August 22, 2011). "GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate". MinnPost.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
^ "Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate". MinnPost. June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
^ "Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist". MinnPost. June 27, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. August 15, 2012. Archived from the original on August 24, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
^ "Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune.
^ Jr, Bob Carney. "OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP". Star Tribune.
^ "Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race". Real Clear Politics. November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
^ "Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments". Politics in Minnesota. June 25, 2011. Retrieved July 17, 2011.
^ ^a ^b Condon, Patrick (June 6, 2012). "Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary". Star Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved June 11, 2012.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ "Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit". MPR News. September 18, 2012.
^ "Federal Election Commission". Summary Reports Search. July 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2008. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
^ "Top Contributors". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012.
^ "Top Industries". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Public Policy Polling
^ Survey USA
^ KSTP/Survey USA Archived September 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
^ Public Policy Polling
^ SurveyUSA/KSTP Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ St. Cloud State U. ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
^ SurveyUSA
^ KSTP/SurveyUSA Archived November 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Survey USA
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b Survey USA
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Public Policy Polling
^ "2012 General Election Results". Archived from the original on April 29, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

Election Center from the Minnesota Secretary of State
Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
U.S. Senate election coverage at Minnesota Public Radio

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] "2012 General Election for U.S. Senator" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2019.

[sos.state.mn.us-2] "Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates". Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved June 20, 2012.

[3] Grow, Doug (August 22, 2011). "GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate". MinnPost.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.

[4] "Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate". MinnPost. June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.

[5] "Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist". MinnPost. June 27, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.

[MNPrimary-6] "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. August 15, 2012. Archived from the original on August 24, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.

[7] "Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune.

[8] Jr, Bob Carney. "OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP". Star Tribune.

[9] "Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race". Real Clear Politics. November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.

[10] "Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments". Politics in Minnesota. June 25, 2011. Retrieved July 17, 2011.

[st_3rd-11] Condon, Patrick (June 6, 2012). "Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary". Star Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved June 11, 2012.^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[12] "Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit". MPR News. September 18, 2012.

[13] "Federal Election Commission". Summary Reports Search. July 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2008. Retrieved October 6, 2012.

[14] "Top Contributors". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012.

[15] "Top Industries". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.

[16] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[17] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[18] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[19] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[Public_Policy_Polling-20] Public Policy Polling

[21] Survey USA

[22] KSTP/Survey USA Archived September 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[23] Public Policy Polling

[24] Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon

[25] Public Policy Polling

[26] SurveyUSA/KSTP Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[27] St. Cloud State U. ^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[28] Rasmussen Reports

[29] Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon

[30] SurveyUSA

[31] KSTP/SurveyUSA Archived November 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[32] Public Policy Polling

[33] Public Policy Polling

[Survey_USA-34] Survey USA

[publicpolicypolling.com-35] Public Policy Polling

[surveyusa.com-36] Survey USA

[ReferenceA-37] Public Policy Polling

[ReferenceB-38] Public Policy Polling

[39] "2012 General Election Results". Archived from the original on April 29, 2016.

[40] "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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Background

DFL primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Independence primary

Campaign

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Top contributors

Top industries

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

See also

References

External links