2004 United States Senate election in Washington

2004 United States Senate election in Washington

November 2, 2004

Nominee Patty Murray George Nethercutt Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,549,708 1,204,584 Percentage 54.98% 42.74%

County results Murray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Nethercutt:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%

U.S. senator before election Patty Murray Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Patty Murray Democratic

The 2004 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Patty Murray won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative George Nethercutt. She became only the fourth Washington senator to win 3 consecutive terms, just after fellow Democrats Warren G. Magnuson and Scoop Jackson. Nethercutt was known for having defeated Tom Foley, the sitting Speaker of the House of Representatives, as part of the 1994 Republican wave.

Term limits became an issue in the campaign, as Democrats seized on Nethercutt's broken term-limits pledge that he had made when he had unseated Foley in 1994. Geography was also against Nethercutt, who was severely hampered by his lack of name recognition in the more densely populated western part of the state, home to two-thirds of the state's population. Washington has not elected a Senator from east of the Cascades since Clarence Dill in 1928. Other important issues included national security and the war in Iraq. Nethercutt supported the invasion of Iraq, while Murray opposed it.

Nethercutt was considered a heavy underdog from the start, and his campaign never gained much traction. In November, he lost by 12 points, receiving 43 percent of the vote to Murray's 55 percent. He only carried two counties west of the Cascades.

Major candidates

Democratic

• Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator

Republican

• George Nethercutt, U.S. Representative

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	George Nethercutt (R)	Undecided
SurveyUSA	October 29–31, 2004	622 (LV)	± 4%	51%	45%	3%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 29–31, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	50%	42%	8%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 24–26, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	49%	41%	10%
Mason-Dixon	October 25–26, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	39%	8%
SurveyUSA	October 23–25, 2004	618 (LV)	± 4%	55%	41%	4%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 16–18, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	49%	41%	10%
SurveyUSA	October 15–17, 2004	634 (LV)	± 4%	56%	38%	6%
Elway Research	October 14–16, 2004	405 (RV)	± 5%	54%	37%	9%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 4–6, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	49%	41%	10%
SurveyUSA	October 2–4, 2004	640 (LV)	± 4%	57%	38%	5%
Strategic Vision (R)	September 20–22, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	48%	41%	11%
SurveyUSA	September 19–21, 2004	627 (LV)	± 4%	53%	41%	6%
Elway Research	September 17–19, 2004	405 (RV)	± 5%	57%	37%	6%
Strategic Vision (R)	September 4–6, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	48%	41%	11%
Strategic Vision (R)	August 21–23, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	49%	41%	10%
SurveyUSA	August 15–17, 2004	602 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%	39%	10%
Strategic Vision (R)	August 9–11, 2004	801 (LV)	± 3%	49%	40%	11%
SurveyUSA	Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004	585 (LV)	± 4.2%	51%	40%	9%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)	June 23–28, 2004	800 (RV)	± 3.8%	56%	33%	11%
Moore Information (R)	June 23–24, 2004	500 (RV)	± 4%	51%	39%	10%
Mason-Dixon (D)	June 9–11, 2004	625 (RV)	± 4%	53%	34%	13%
SurveyUSA	June 1–3, 2004	654 (RV)	± 4%	49%	34%	17%
Tarrance Group (R)	May 2–3, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	50.6%	41.1%	8.3%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)	April 22–27, 2004	800 (LV)	± 3.8%	54%	31%	15%
Tarrance Group (R)	May 5–6, 2003	504 (LV)	± 4.5%	52%	37%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	George Nethercutt (R)	Reed Davis (R)	Undecided
Elway Research	January 27–29, 2004	405 (V)	± 5%	49%	19%	5%	27%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Jennifer Dunn (R)	Undecided
for NRSC (R)	January 2003	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	42%	12%

Results

The election was not close, with Murray winning by 12.24% of the vote. Although Murray failed to win any counties in the eastern part of the state, she pulled down big margins from the western part of the state, which is significantly more populated. Specifically, Murray trounced Nethercutt in King County, home of Seattle, the most populous county in the state. Murray was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2005.

General election results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (Incumbent)	1,549,708	54.98%
	Republican	George Nethercutt	1,204,584	42.74%
	Libertarian	J. Mills	34,055	1.21%
	Green	Mark Wilson	30,304	1.08%
Total votes			2,818,651	100.00%
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Asotin (Largest city: Clarkston)
• Ferry (Largest city: Republic)
• Kittias (Largest city: Ellensburg)
• Pend Oreille (Largest city: Newport)
• Spokane (Largest city: Spokane)
• Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Skamania (Largest city: Carson)

See also

• 2004 United States Senate elections