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2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

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2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
← 2020 January 15, 2024 2028 →
NH →
40 Republican National Convention delegates
Turnout15% of registered Republicans in Iowa[1]
 
Candidate Donald Trump Ron DeSantis
Home state Florida Florida
Delegate count 20 9
Popular vote 56,243 23,491
Percentage 51.00% 21.30%
 
Candidate Nikki Haley Vivek Ramaswamy
Home state South Carolina Ohio
Delegate count 8 3
Popular vote 21,027 8,430
Percentage 19.07% 7.64%
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The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024,[2] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[3] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucuses were the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential nominating contest.

The results were a landslide victory for Donald Trump, with his 30-point margin being the largest margin of victory ever for a non-incumbent in the Iowa Republican caucuses.[4] Trump won 20 delegates, Ron DeSantis won nine, Nikki Haley won eight, and Vivek Ramaswamy won three.[5] Trump also became the first Republican ever to win a contested Iowa caucus with a majority of the vote, and third person of either major political party to do so (the others being Tom Harkin in 1992, and Al Gore in 2000). Analysts described the results as establishing him as the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, with both DeSantis's and Haley's campaigns seen as heavily damaged.[6][7][8]

Trump also won 98 out of Iowa's 99 counties, losing Johnson County to Haley by a single vote.[9] Ramaswamy announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but retained his three delegates. Asa Hutchinson, who finished with less than 1% of the vote, dropped out the following day and endorsed Haley. DeSantis dropped out the following weekend and endorsed Trump.[10]

Background and electorate

[edit]

History of the Iowa caucus

[edit]

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for Republican presidential contenders.[11] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[12]

Republican electorate

[edit]

It has been argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[12]

Commentators have noted in the 2010s the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives George W. Bush,[13] Mike Huckabee,[14] Rick Santorum,[15] and Ted Cruz in the 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[16][17]

In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[18] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

[edit]

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no minimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.[19]

Campaign developments

[edit]

In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[20] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[21][22]

Nikki Haley had held 22 events in Iowa by May 19, 2023.[23] Her campaign made ad buys of $10 million in Iowa and New Hampshire beginning in December 2023.[24] On December 8, Haley addressed a convention center conference where she stated her campaign had momentum and needed "to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win, necessarily, but I think that we have to have a good showing."[25]

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis held a pair of events in the state on March 10 and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[26] Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she would not have been elected without Trump's help.[27] Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis.[28] Between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties.[29] In December, DeSantis' wife, Casey DeSantis, was widely criticized for calling on Republicans from other states to participate in the Iowa caucuses.[30]

Asa Hutchinson focused most of his energy campaigning in the state, hoping to perform well and use that success as a springboard for the rest of his campaign.[31][32]

Endorsements

[edit]
Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Ron DeSantis

Governors

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Nikki Haley

Former executive branch officials

State senators

State representatives

Mayors

Notable individuals

Asa Hutchinson

Newspapers

Vivek Ramaswamy

Former U.S. Representatives

State executive officials

State senators

Donald Trump

Former Executive Branch officials

Former U.S. Representatives

State Executive officials

State senators

State representatives

Notable individuals

Declined to endorse

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Newspapers

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (13)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (8)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (11)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (27)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (15)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (7)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (1)
  No endorsement (14)

Polling

[edit]
Local regression graph of all polls conducted since November 2022.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Asa
Hutchinson 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Donald
Trump 		Other/
Undecided[a] 		Margin
270toWin[72] January 11–15, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.5% 0.8% 6.8% 52.5% 5.7%[b] Trump +34.0
FiveThirtyEight[73] Through January 14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.8% 18.7% 0.7% 6.4% 52.7% 5.7% Trump +34.0
RealClearPolling[74] January 5–14, 2024 January 15, 2024 15.7% 18.8% 0.8% 6.8% 52.5% 5.4% Trump +33.7
Average 15.7% 18.7% 0.7% 6.7% 52.6% 5.6% Trump +33.9
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Burgum 		Chris
Christie 		Ron
DeSantis 		Larry
Elder 		Nikki
Haley 		Asa
Hutchinson 		Mike
Pence 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group[75] Jan 12–14, 2024 1,092 (LV) ± 2.9% – – 19.3% – 18.5% 0.7% – 6.5% – 52.1% – 2.9%
Selzer & Co.[76][A] Jan 7–12, 2024 705 (LV) ± 3.7% – – 16% – 20% 1% – 8% – 48% 3%[d] 5%
Insider Advantage[77] January 11, 2024 850 (LV) ± 4.3% – – 17% – 17% 0% – 7% – 51% – 8%
Suffolk University[78] Jan 6–10, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 13% – 20% 0% – 6% – 54% – –
Civiqs[79] Jan 5–10, 2024 433 (LV) ± 6.4% – 4% 14% – 14% 0% – 8% – 55% 2% 3%
InsiderAdvantage[80] Dec 18–19, 2023 850 (LV) ± 4.36% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – 50% – 6%
Fox Business[81] Dec 14–18, 2023 804 (LV) ± 3.5% – 3% 18% – 16% 0% – 7% – 52% 1% 2%
Emerson College[82] Dec 15–17, 2023 420 (LV) ± 4.7% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – 50% – 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs[83] Dec 8–13, 2023 438 (LV) ± 6.0% – 4% 17% – 15% 1% – 7% – 54% 0%[e] 2%
Selzer & Co.[84][A] Dec 2–7, 2023 502 (LV) ± 4.4% – 4% 19% – 16% 1% – 5% – 51% 2%[f] 3%
Trafalgar Group[85] Dec 1–4, 2023 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 4% 22% – 19% 1% – 5% – 45% – 1%
Morning Consult[86] Nov 1–30, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 18% – 11% 0% – 13% 5% 50% – –
Iowa State University/Civiqs[87] Nov 10–15, 2023 432 (LV) ± 4.3% 1% 3% 18% – 12% 0% – 6% 2% 54% 0% 4%
Arc Insights[88][B] Nov 9–14, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 4% 17% – 17% <1% – 5% – 44% 2%[g] 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[89][C] Nov 9–12, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 1% 5% 19% - 16% 0% - 4% 5% 43% 0% 7%
2% 5% 20% - 18% 0% - 5% - 44% 0% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[90] Nov 3–5, 2023 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 5% 18% – 15% 0% – 5% 9% 44% 0%[h] 1%
Morning Consult[86] Oct 1–31, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 15% – 7% 0% 3% 9% 6% 57% – –
Public Opinion Strategies[91][D] Oct 24–26, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 20% – 12% 1% 1% 4% 5% 46% – –
Selzer & Co.[92][A] Oct 22–26, 2023 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 4% 16% – 16% 1% 2%[i] 4% 7% 43% 2%[j] 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[89][C] Oct 17–19, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 3% 21% 0% 14% 0% 2% 4% 5% 42% 2%[k] 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs[93] Oct 6–10, 2023 425 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 2% 17% 0% 11% 0% 1% 5% 4% 55% 2%[l] 1%
Morning Consult[94] Sep 1–30, 2023 316 (LV) – 1% 5% 13% – 6% – 7% 9% 7% 53% – –
CBS News/YouGov[95] Sep 15–24, 2023 458 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 1% 21% 0% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% 51% 0%[m] –
Public Opinion Strategies[96][E] Sep 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 21% – 9% 0% 2% 5% 6% 45% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[97][F] Sep 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 5% 15% – 13% <1% 2% 5% 5% 45% <1%[n] 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[98] Sep 14–18, 2023 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 2% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 7% 7% 49% 1%[o] 2%
Fox Business[99] Sep 14–18, 2023 813 (LV) ± 3% 2% 3% 15% <0.5% 11% <0.5% 3% 7% 7% 46% 3%[p] 2%
Emerson College[100] Sep 7–9, 2023 357 (V) ± 5.1% 3% – 14% – 7% – 3% 7% 8% 49% 6% –
Civiqs[101] Sep 2–7, 2023 434 (LV) ± 5.8% 2% 3% 14% – 10% 0% 1% 9% 6% 51% 1%[q] –
Public Opinion Strategies[102] Sep 5–6, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 3% 22% – 6% 1% 2% 6% 5% 45% – –
Morning Consult[94] Aug 1–31, 2023 341 (LV) – 1% 4% 15% – 6% 0% 6% 8% 7% 52% 0%[r] 1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[103] Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 3% 18% <1% 10% 1% 2% 7% 7% 44% <2%[s] 5%
Public Opinion Strategies[104] August 24, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 1% 21% – 11% 1% 2% 7% 7% 41% – –
Public Opinion Strategies[104] Aug 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 3% 14% – 3% <1% 2% 10% 3% 42% – –
HarrisX[105][G] Aug 17–21, 2023 1,120 (LV) –[t] 2% 3% 11% 0% 4% 0% 3% 9% 8% 45% 3%[u] 12%
–[v] 2% 4% 21% 1% 6% 1% 8% 18% 15% – 4%[w] 19%
Echelon Insights[106][H] Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.2% 2% 4% 17% – 2% <1% 3% 8% 3% 33% 3%[x] 14%
Selzer & Co.[107][A] Aug 13–17, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 5% 19% – 6% – 6% 4% 9% 42% 1%[y] 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[108] Aug 14–16, 2023 1,126 (LV) ± 2.9% 3% 4% 16% 1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 13% 42% 3%[z] 3%
New York Times/Siena College[109] Jul 28 – August 1, 2023 432 (LV) ± 5.9% 1% <1% 20% <1% 4% <1% 3% 5% 9% 44% <2%[aa] 12%
– – 39% – – – – – – 55% – 4%
Manhattan Institute[110] Jul 2023 625 (LV) – 3% 4% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 6% 10% 42% 1%[ab] 7%
Morning Consult[94] July 1–31, 2023 350 (LV) – 1% 2% 19% – 4% 0% 4% 8% 5% 55% – 2%
National Research[111][I] Jul 23–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 4% 15% – 3% 0% 2% 5% 9% 42% – 13%
Fox Business[112] Jul 15–19, 2023 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 3% 16% <1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% 46% 1%[ac] 4%
co/efficient[113][J] Jul 15–17, 2023 2,238 (LV) ± 2.6% – 3% 16% – 3% – 3% 5% 10% 46% – 10%
National Research[114][I] Jul 5–6, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 3% 21% – 2% 1% 3% 3% 7% 44% – 14%
Morning Consult[94] June 1–30, 2023 317 (LV) – 0% 1% 18% – 2% 1% 7% 3% 3% 64% 0%[ad] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates[115][J] Jun 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 19% – – – 6% – 9% 51% – 15%
– – 33% – – – – – – 60% – 7%
National Research[116][I] Jun 5–7, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 2% 24% – 4% 0% 4% 1% 5% 39% – 21%
Victory Insights[117] Jun 3–6, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.9% – 3% 21% – 5% – 5% 2% 6% 44% 3%[ae] 12%
– – 32% – – – – – – 49% – 19%
WPA Intelligence[118][K] May 30 – June 1, 2023 655 (RV) – – – 29% – 6% <1% 4% 4% 7% 39% – 11%
– – 43% – – – – – – 45% – 12%
Morning Consult[94] May 1–31, 2023 300 (LV) – – – 17% – 5% 0% 8% 5% 1% 60% 4%[af] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates[119] May 23–25, 2023 400 (LV) – 0% 1% 24% 1% 4% 1% 5% 2% 7% 50% 3%[ag] 4%
– – 36% – – – – – – 54% – 11%
Emerson College[120] May 19–22, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 0% – 20% – 5% 1% 5% 2% 3% 62% 2%[ah] –
National Research[121][I] May 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 26% – 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 44% – 11%
– – 33% – – – – – – 45% – 22%
McLaughlin & Associates[122][J] Apr 27–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 1% 20% 1% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% 54% 5%[ai] 5%
– – 22% – – – – – – 57% – –
Morning Consult[94] Apr 1–30, 2023 294 (LV) – – – 20% – 4% 0% 7% 4% 0% 60% 3%[aj] 2%
Victory Insights[123] Apr 10–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.8% – – 24% – 14% 4% – 3% – 54% 1%[ak] –
– – 59% – 24% 5% – 8% – – 4%[al] –
– – 41% – – – – – – 59% – –
Cygnal[124] Apr 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 30% – 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% 37% 3%[am] 19%
J.L. Partners[125] Mar 25 – April 4, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 26% – 5% – 3% 1% – 41% 10%[an] 14%
– – 39% – – – – – – 47% – 15%
Morning Consult[94] Mar 1–31, 2023 329 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 7% – 0% 57% 2%[ao] 2%
Morning Consult[94] Feb 1–28, 2023 281 (LV) – – – 25% – 6% – 9% 0% 0% 52% 8%[ap] 0%
Morning Consult[94] Jan 1–31, 2023 367 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 9% – 1% 51% 5%[aq] 2%
Morning Consult[94] Dec 1–31, 2022 227 (LV) – – – 35% – 2% – 11% – 1% 44% 8%[ar] 0%
WPA Intelligence[126][L] Nov 11–13, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 48% – – – – – – 37% – 16%
WPA Intelligence[126][L] Aug 7–10, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – – 52% – 12%
Neighborhood Research and Media[127][M] Jun 22 – July 1, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% – – 17% – 2% – 2% – – 38% 4%[as] –
Victory Insights[128] Mar 5–8, 2021 630 (RV) – – – 4% – 6% – 8% – – 61% 13%[at] –
– – 20% – 10% – 19% – – – 33%[au] –

Results

[edit]
Each candidate's vote share and 1st/2nd-place finisher in each county

Just minutes after the caucus events started at 7 pm local time, Trump was projected to win the most votes by the Associated Press.[129] Trump received 20 delegates, DeSantis nine, Haley eight, and Ramaswamy three.[130] Barring any shifts in votes after the conclusion of the Iowa Republican Party's ongoing recanvass of the caucus results,[131] Trump won all of Iowa's counties except for Johnson County, which he lost to Haley by one vote.[130]

DeSantis and Haley finished second and third place respectively.[132][133] Ramaswamy, who placed fourth, announced the suspension of his campaign the night of the caucus, endorsing Trump, but will retain his three expected delegates. Hutchinson announced the suspension of his campaign the day after the caucus.[134] DeSantis, despite finishing in second place, announced the suspension of his campaign six days after the caucus.

The DeSantis campaign was highly critical of "media outlets" calling the results before the caucuses had closed.[135]

According to The Des Moines Register,[1] as well as The Hill[136] the turnout was reduced compared to the previous caucuses in 2020, due to the colder than normal weather.

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024[137]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 56,243 51.00% 20 0 20
Ron DeSantis 23,491 21.30% 9 0 9
Nikki Haley 21,027 19.07% 8 0 8
Vivek Ramaswamy 8,430 7.64% 3 0 3
Ryan Binkley 768 0.70% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson 188 0.17% 0 0 0
Other 90 0.08% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 35 0.03% 0 0 0
Total: 110,272 100.00% 40 0 40
By county
County Donald Trump Ron DeSantis Nikki Haley Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Others Margin Total

votes

% # % # % # % # % # % #
Adair 50.63% 120 28.27% 67 8.86% 21 12.24% 29 0.00% 0 22.36% 53 237
Adams 58.70% 108 18.48% 34 14.13% 26 8.15% 15 0.54% 1 40.22% 74 185
Allamakee 66.86% 353 15.53% 82 10.61% 56 4.55% 24 2.46% 13 51.33% 271 528
Appanoose 71.87% 373 11.95% 62 6.94% 36 8.48% 44 0.77% 4 59.92% 311 519
Audubon 64.26% 178 15.88% 44 10.11% 28 9.39% 26 0.36% 1 48.38% 134 277
Benton 59.60% 652 21.85% 239 9.60% 105 8.59% 94 0.37% 4 37.75% 413 1,094
Black Hawk 52.23% 1,782 16.03% 547 21.98% 750 9.03% 308 0.73% 25 30.25% 1,032 3,412
Boone 46.46% 505 27.69% 301 16.01% 174 7.73% 84 2.12% 23 18.77% 204 1,087
Bremer 46.59% 437 18.55% 174 23.13% 217 11.19% 105 0.53% 5 23.45% 220 938
Buchanan 63.32% 423 15.42% 103 9.13% 61 10.48% 70 1.65% 11 47.90% 320 668
Buena Vista 61.87% 357 14.56% 84 14.56% 84 7.63% 44 1.39% 8 47.31% 273 577
Butler 58.47% 352 16.28% 98 12.96% 78 10.30% 62 1.99% 12 42.19% 254 602
Calhoun 62.87% 210 15.87% 53 11.98% 40 7.78% 26 1.50% 5 47.01% 157 334
Carroll 53.30% 355 20.42% 136 19.37% 129 5.56% 37 1.35% 9 32.88% 219 666
Cass 61.68% 375 17.93% 109 17.27% 105 2.63% 16 0.49% 3 43.75% 266 608
Cedar 60.19% 378 15.61% 98 15.61% 98 7.96% 50 0.64% 4 44.59% 280 628
Cerro Gordo 59.56% 941 14.87% 235 17.78% 281 6.14% 97 1.65% 26 41.77% 660 1,580
Cherokee 58.30% 337 17.13% 99 14.88% 86 8.65% 50 1.04% 6 41.17% 238 578
Chickasaw 58.43% 253 17.32% 75 13.86% 60 9.47% 41 0.92% 4 41.11% 178 433
Clarke 63.90% 246 14.55% 56 12.99% 50 5.71% 22 2.86% 11 49.35% 190 385
Clay 59.09% 390 18.18% 120 13.48% 89 8.03% 53 1.21% 8 40.91% 270 660
Clayton 63.79% 428 18.63% 125 7.60% 51 7.60% 51 2.38% 16 45.16% 303 671
Clinton 69.83% 1,139 11.47% 187 12.75% 208 5.95% 97 0.00% 0 57.08% 931 1,631
Crawford 52.47% 202 9.61% 37 12.47% 48 23.90% 92 1.56% 6 28.57% 110 385
Dallas 38.95% 1,978 25.03% 1,271 26.60% 1,351 8.65% 439 0.77% 39 12.35% 627 5,078
Davis 67.30% 177 16.35% 43 10.65% 28 4.56% 12 1.14% 3 50.95% 134 263
Decatur 60.71% 153 19.05% 48 13.89% 35 5.95% 15 0.40% 1 41.67% 105 252
Delaware 55.62% 292 18.29% 96 16.19% 85 8.95% 47 0.95% 5 37.33% 196 525
Des Moines 59.68% 786 21.49% 283 11.85% 156 6.68% 88 0.30% 4 38.19% 503 1,317
Dickinson 52.00% 429 20.97% 173 15.15% 125 10.91% 90 0.97% 8 31.03% 256 825
Dubuque 47.74% 1,244 23.37% 609 19.53% 509 9.13% 238 0.23% 6 24.37% 635 2,606
Emmet 67.94% 195 14.63% 42 6.97% 20 9.41% 27 1.05% 3 53.31% 153 287
Fayette 56.70% 368 16.33% 106 17.87% 116 7.24% 47 1.85% 12 38.83% 252 649
Floyd 66.41% 346 17.08% 89 10.56% 55 4.61% 24 1.34% 7 49.33% 257 521
Franklin 54.25% 217 20.00% 80 15.25% 61 7.75% 31 2.75% 11 34.25% 137 400
Fremont 68.33% 164 12.08% 29 15.00% 36 4.58% 11 0.00% 0 53.33% 128 240
Greene 56.33% 209 18.33% 68 16.44% 61 6.74% 25 2.16% 8 38.01% 141 371
Grundy 51.68% 292 20.35% 115 15.04% 85 11.86% 67 1.06% 6 31.33% 177 565
Guthrie 55.58% 264 17.47% 83 18.53% 88 8.00% 38 0.42% 2 37.05% 176 475
Hamilton 56.90% 334 20.61% 121 14.48% 85 7.16% 42 0.85% 5 36.29% 213 587
Hancock 65.44% 337 17.67% 91 8.93% 46 6.21% 32 1.75% 9 47.77% 246 515
Hardin 50.97% 368 23.41% 169 12.33% 89 10.80% 78 2.49% 18 27.56% 199 722
Harrison 66.56% 428 13.53% 87 11.82% 76 7.31% 47 0.78% 5 53.03% 341 643
Henry 64.88% 436 18.30% 123 12.20% 82 4.02% 27 0.60% 4 46.58% 313 672
Howard 63.79% 222 10.06% 35 16.95% 59 8.62% 30 0.57% 2 46.84% 163 348
Humboldt 70.65% 313 11.06% 49 8.80% 39 9.03% 40 0.45% 2 59.59% 264 443
Ida 51.16% 132 15.89% 41 21.32% 55 9.30% 24 2.33% 6 29.84% 77 258
Iowa 55.21% 360 22.39% 146 15.18% 99 6.29% 41 0.92% 6 32.82% 214 652
Jackson 71.97% 498 9.83% 68 10.84% 75 7.37% 51 0.00% 0 61.13% 423 692
Jasper 54.62% 751 22.84% 314 13.02% 179 7.85% 108 1.67% 23 31.78% 437 1,375
Jefferson 69.52% 301 12.01% 52 9.24% 40 8.55% 37 0.69% 3 57.51% 249 433
Johnson 35.49% 1,270 21.10% 755 35.52% 1,271 7.15% 256 0.73% 26 -0.03% -1 3,578
Jones 55.91% 426 19.16% 146 14.83% 113 9.19% 70 0.92% 7 36.75% 280 762
Keokuk 74.61% 285 12.83% 49 7.59% 29 4.45% 17 0.52% 2 61.78% 236 382
Kossuth 66.87% 430 15.86% 102 9.02% 58 7.93% 51 0.31% 2 51.01% 328 643
Lee 65.79% 550 16.27% 136 8.97% 75 6.82% 57 2.15% 18 49.52% 414 836
Linn 42.75% 2,992 23.59% 1,651 24.80% 1,736 8.07% 565 0.79% 55 17.95% 1,256 6,999
Louisa 70.65% 219 17.74% 55 8.71% 27 2.90% 9 0.00% 0 52.90% 164 310
Lucas 66.46% 218 14.33% 47 6.40% 21 11.59% 38 1.22% 4 52.13% 171 328
Lyon 58.73% 427 28.20% 205 7.43% 54 5.36% 39 0.28% 2 30.54% 222 727
Madison 57.10% 430 19.79% 149 14.74% 111 7.84% 59 0.53% 4 37.32% 281 753
Mahaska 52.75% 499 28.96% 274 9.41% 89 7.29% 69 1.59% 15 23.78% 225 946
Marion 46.08% 700 28.97% 440 17.18% 261 6.78% 103 0.99% 15 17.12% 260 1,519
Marshall 52.68% 649 24.19% 298 14.53% 179 7.06% 87 1.54% 19 28.49% 351 1,232
Mills 59.00% 449 20.24% 154 16.56% 126 3.94% 30 0.26% 2 38.76% 295 761
Mitchell 49.86% 178 20.45% 73 15.41% 55 14.01% 50 0.28% 1 29.41% 105 357
Monona 70.18% 200 15.44% 44 7.72% 22 6.67% 19 0.00% 0 54.74% 156 285
Monroe 66.67% 162 14.81% 36 9.05% 22 7.00% 17 2.47% 6 51.85% 126 243
Montgomery 57.28% 177 9.71% 30 22.01% 68 8.74% 27 2.27% 7 35.28% 109 309
Muscatine 53.74% 582 18.10% 196 20.22% 219 7.76% 84 0.18% 2 33.52% 363 1,083
O'Brien 62.91% 329 17.40% 91 8.80% 46 7.07% 37 3.82% 20 45.51% 238 523
Osceola 64.36% 121 15.96% 30 12.23% 23 6.38% 12 1.06% 2 48.40% 91 188
Page 63.94% 328 15.40% 79 15.59% 80 3.90% 20 1.17% 6 48.34% 248 513
Palo Alto 56.63% 188 21.39% 71 12.05% 40 9.64% 32 0.30% 1 35.24% 117 332
Plymouth 63.97% 712 17.61% 196 11.41% 127 6.29% 70 0.72% 8 46.36% 516 1,113
Pocahontas 67.11% 255 10.26% 39 11.32% 43 11.05% 42 0.26% 1 55.79% 212 380
Polk 38.03% 6,629 27.20% 4,742 26.36% 4,595 7.50% 1,308 0.91% 159 10.82% 1,887 17,433
Pottawattamie 61.01% 1,770 13.37% 388 18.20% 528 6.55% 190 0.86% 25 42.81% 1,242 2,901
Poweshiek 51.86% 293 23.36% 132 15.40% 87 8.14% 46 1.24% 7 28.50% 161 565
Ringgold 59.28% 131 29.41% 65 7.24% 16 2.26% 5 1.81% 4 29.86% 66 221
Sac 54.72% 174 16.35% 52 16.35% 52 11.32% 36 1.26% 4 38.36% 122 318
Scott 49.20% 2,857 18.32% 1,064 24.30% 1,411 7.68% 446 0.50% 29 24.90% 1,446 5,807
Shelby 68.55% 327 10.06% 48 11.74% 56 7.76% 37 1.89% 9 56.81% 271 477
Sioux 44.98% 964 31.12% 667 15.59% 334 6.16% 132 2.15% 46 13.86% 297 2,143
Story 33.94% 1,184 26.45% 923 29.95% 1,045 8.31% 290 1.35% 47 3.98% 139 3,489
Tama 58.45% 339 19.66% 114 11.90% 69 9.14% 53 0.86% 5 38.79% 225 580
Taylor 69.06% 125 16.02% 29 8.84% 16 6.08% 11 0.00% 0 53.04% 96 181
Union 58.77% 201 23.10% 79 9.94% 34 6.14% 21 2.05% 7 35.67% 122 342
Van Buren 71.28% 211 17.23% 51 6.08% 18 5.41% 16 0.00% 0 54.05% 160 296
Wapello 71.64% 538 12.52% 94 9.19% 69 6.26% 47 0.40% 3 59.12% 444 751
Warren 51.29% 1,292 26.52% 668 15.16% 382 6.43% 162 0.60% 15 24.77% 624 2,519
Washington 57.27% 496 22.29% 193 12.12% 105 7.51% 65 0.81% 7 34.99% 303 866
Wayne 66.28% 171 20.54% 53 5.81% 15 6.59% 17 0.78% 2 45.74% 118 258
Webster 66.46% 652 16.11% 158 9.48% 93 7.03% 69 0.92% 9 50.36% 494 981
Winnebago 55.29% 256 23.11% 107 11.45% 53 9.50% 44 0.65% 3 32.18% 149 463
Winneshiek 53.90% 415 17.27% 133 19.22% 148 7.40% 57 2.21% 17 34.68% 267 770
Woodbury 56.62% 1,565 21.53% 595 13.17% 364 6.80% 188 1.88% 52 35.09% 970 2,764
Worth 66.90% 194 12.07% 35 10.00% 29 10.34% 30 0.69% 2 54.83% 159 290
Wright 55.21% 212 22.92% 88 14.32% 55 6.77% 26 0.78% 3 32.29% 124 384

See also

[edit]
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Iowa Republican caucuses, 2024.

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Chris Christie 3.0%
    Ryan Binkley 1.5%
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Ryan Binkley with 1%; "None of these" with 2%
  5. ^ Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg with 0%
  6. ^ Ryan Binkley with 0%; "None of these" with 2%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^ Ryan Binkley with 0%
  9. ^ The other percentages in this result were increased by redistributing Pence's supporters to their second-choice candidates in the poll
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 0%
  11. ^ Perry Johnson with 1%
  12. ^ Ryan Binkley with 2%; Will Hurd and Perry Johnson with 0%
  13. ^ Will Hurd with 0%
  14. ^ Perry Johnson & Will Hurd with <1%
  15. ^ Perry Johnson with 1%; Ryan Binkley with and Will Hurd with 0%
  16. ^ Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson and "Other" with 1%; Asa Hutchinson and "None of the above" with <0.5%
  17. ^ Ryan Binkley with 1% and Will Hurd with 0%
  18. ^ Francis Suarez with 0%
  19. ^ Perry Johnson and Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  20. ^ Standard VI response
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  22. ^ If Trump did not run in the caucuses
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Ryan Binkley with 1%; Will Hurd, Perry Johnson, Corey Stapleton and Francis Suarez with 0%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Will Hurd with 1%; Ryan Binkley and Francis Suarez with <1%
  25. ^ Will Hurd with 1%
  26. ^ Ryan Binkley and Perry Johnson with 1%; Will Hurd and Francis Suarez with 0%
  27. ^ "Someone else" with <1%; Will Hurd with <1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  28. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Francis Suarez with 0%
  29. ^ Franciz Suarez at 1%; Will Hurd at less than 1%
  30. ^ Francis Saurez with 0%
  31. ^ Someone else with 3%
  32. ^ Greg Abbott with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%
  33. ^ Mitt Romney with 3%; Rick Perry, Chris Sununu, Perry Johnson, Francis Suarez with 0%
  34. ^ Someone else with 2%
  35. ^ Mitt Romney with 4%, Liz Cheney with 1%, Chris Sununu, John Bolton and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  36. ^ Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott, Mike Pompeo with 0%
  37. ^ Perry Johnson with 1%
  38. ^ Perry Johnson with 4%
  39. ^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%
  40. ^ Mike Pompeo with 3%; Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 6%
  41. ^ Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  42. ^ Liz Cheney and Ted Cruz with 3%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%
  43. ^ Ted Cruz with 3%; Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Liz Cheney with 0%
  44. ^ Kristi Noem with 3%; Ted Cruz with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney and Mike Pompeo with 1%, Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  45. ^ Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio with 1%
  46. ^ Mitt Romney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 2%
  47. ^ Ted Cruz with 16%; Mitt Romney with 5%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register, NBC News & Mediacom Iowa
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Make America Great Again Inc. (Super Pac)
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by And To The Republic, a non-profit with ties to DeSantis
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens Awareness Project
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC, which supports Trump
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
  8. ^ Poll commissioned by Republican Main Street Partnership
  9. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by American Greatness, which supports Trump
  10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Trump campaign
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Never Back Down PAC, which supports DeSantis.
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC

References

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  134. ^ Weisman, Jonathan (January 15, 2024). "Vivek Ramaswamy, Wealthy Political Novice Who Aligned With Trump, Quits Campaign". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
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  137. ^ "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers.
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