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2016 United States presidential election in Iowa

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout72.77% Decrease
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 800,983 653,669
Percentage 51.15% 41.74%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against the Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Trump won the state with 51.15% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.74% (a margin of 9.41%). Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1980. Trump, besides being the first Republican to carry the state since George W. Bush in 2004, won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in Richard Nixon's landslide victory in 1972; and also won Dubuque County, which had last voted Republican in 1956.[2] Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win an outright majority of the state's vote since Reagan's historic 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.[3][4]

Caucuses

[edit]
Further information: United States presidential election

The incumbent President of the United States, Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in 2008, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the 2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[8][9] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[10]

President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term Vice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[11]

Democratic caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

Procedure

[edit]
Further information: Walking subcaucus

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.

Results of the Democratic caucuses by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie
e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Iowa
– Summary of results –
Candidate State delegate equivalents Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 700.47 49.84% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 696.92 49.59% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 7.63 0.54% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0.46 0.03% 0 1 1
Total 1,405.48 100% 44 7 51
Source: [12][13]

County Conventions

[edit]

In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.

Republican caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
  Tie between Cruz and Trump
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.64% 8 0 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 7 0 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.12% 7 0 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 3 0 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.54% 1 0 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 1 0 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.86% 1 0 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.86% 1 0 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.79% 1 0 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.76% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 0.95% 0 0 0
Other 117 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 186,932 100.00% 30 0 30
Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved November 23, 2016.

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Iowa

Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 until election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night.[14] The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.[15]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
CNN[16] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[17] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[18] Likely R (flip) November 8, 2016
NBC[19] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[20] Tossup November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[21] Tilt R (flip) November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016

Results

[edit]

Chart of popular vote

  Trump (51.15%)
  Clinton (41.74%)
  Johnson (3.78%)
  Write-ins (1.13%)
  McMullin (0.79%)
  Stein (0.73%)
  Others (0.67%)
2016 United States presidential election in Iowa
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 800,983 51.15% 6
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 653,669 41.74% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 59,186 3.78% 0
Write-in Various Various 17,746 1.13% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson 12,366 0.79% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 11,479 0.73% 0
Constitution Darrell L. Castle Scott N. Bradley 5,335 0.34% 0
New Independent Lynn Kahn Jay Stolba 2,247 0.14% 0
Legal Marijuana Now Dan Vacek Mark Elworth 2,246 0.14% 0
Independent Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg 451 0.03% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Dennis J. Banks 323 0.02% 0
Totals 1,566,031 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 72.0%
Source: Iowa Secretary of State

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adair 2,461 64.58% 1,133 29.73% 217 5.69% 1,328 34.85% 3,811
Adams 1,395 66.24% 565 26.83% 146 6.93% 830 39.41% 2,106
Allamakee 4,093 59.12% 2,421 34.97% 409 5.91% 1,672 24.15% 6,923
Appanoose 4,033 65.73% 1,814 29.56% 289 4.71% 2,219 36.17% 6,136
Audubon 2,136 62.60% 1,080 31.65% 196 5.75% 1,056 30.95% 3,412
Benton 8,232 59.46% 4,678 33.79% 934 6.75% 3,554 25.67% 13,844
Black Hawk 27,476 42.66% 32,233 50.05% 4,696 7.29% -4,757 -7.39% 64,405
Boone 7,484 52.72% 5,541 39.03% 1,171 8.25% 1,943 13.69% 14,196
Bremer 7,208 53.24% 5,356 39.56% 974 7.20% 1,852 13.68% 13,538
Buchanan 5,510 53.75% 3,970 38.72% 772 7.53% 1,540 15.03% 10,252
Buena Vista 4,903 59.23% 2,856 34.50% 519 6.27% 2,047 24.73% 8,278
Butler 4,921 65.50% 2,157 28.71% 435 5.79% 2,764 36.79% 7,513
Calhoun 3,468 67.22% 1,398 27.10% 293 5.68% 2,070 40.12% 5,159
Carroll 6,638 62.96% 3,309 31.38% 597 5.66% 3,329 31.58% 10,544
Cass 4,761 66.82% 1,951 27.38% 413 5.80% 2,810 39.44% 7,125
Cedar 5,295 55.50% 3,599 37.72% 647 6.78% 1,696 17.78% 9,541
Cerro Gordo 11,621 50.60% 9,862 42.94% 1,482 6.46% 1,759 7.66% 22,965
Cherokee 4,192 66.99% 1,679 26.83% 387 6.18% 2,513 40.16% 6,258
Chickasaw 3,742 58.15% 2,266 35.21% 427 6.64% 1,476 22.94% 6,435
Clarke 2,713 60.91% 1,465 32.89% 276 6.20% 1,248 28.02% 4,454
Clay 5,877 68.20% 2,249 26.10% 491 5.70% 3,628 42.10% 8,617
Clayton 5,317 58.24% 3,237 35.46% 575 6.30% 2,080 22.78% 9,129
Clinton 11,276 48.88% 10,095 43.76% 1,696 7.36% 1,181 5.12% 23,067
Crawford 4,617 66.58% 1,991 28.71% 327 4.71% 2,626 37.87% 6,935
Dallas 19,339 50.56% 15,701 41.05% 3,212 8.39% 3,638 9.51% 38,252
Davis 2,723 70.14% 977 25.17% 182 4.69% 1,746 44.97% 3,882
Decatur 2,296 61.49% 1,201 32.16% 237 6.35% 1,095 29.33% 3,734
Delaware 5,694 61.62% 2,957 32.00% 590 6.38% 2,737 29.62% 9,241
Des Moines 9,529 49.88% 8,212 42.99% 1,362 7.13% 1,317 6.89% 19,103
Dickinson 6,753 65.22% 3,056 29.52% 545 5.26% 3,697 35.70% 10,354
Dubuque 23,460 47.18% 22,850 45.96% 3,411 6.86% 610 1.22% 49,721
Emmet 3,124 65.73% 1,357 28.55% 272 5.72% 1,767 37.18% 4,753
Fayette 5,620 56.34% 3,689 36.98% 666 6.68% 1,931 19.36% 9,975
Floyd 4,375 54.28% 3,179 39.44% 506 6.28% 1,196 14.84% 8,060
Franklin 3,163 63.67% 1,493 30.05% 312 6.28% 1,670 33.62% 4,968
Fremont 2,407 66.95% 963 26.79% 225 6.26% 1,444 40.16% 3,595
Greene 2,820 58.49% 1,691 35.08% 310 6.43% 1,129 23.41% 4,821
Grundy 4,527 65.88% 1,856 27.01% 489 7.11% 2,671 38.87% 6,872
Guthrie 3,628 63.10% 1,732 30.12% 390 6.78% 1,896 32.98% 5,750
Hamilton 4,463 58.01% 2,726 35.43% 505 6.56% 1,737 22.58% 7,694
Hancock 3,977 67.74% 1,587 27.03% 307 5.23% 2,390 40.71% 5,871
Hardin 5,254 61.57% 2,787 32.66% 492 5.77% 2,467 28.91% 8,533
Harrison 4,902 65.67% 2,131 28.55% 432 5.78% 2,771 37.12% 7,465
Henry 5,779 61.45% 2,904 30.88% 721 7.67% 2,875 30.57% 9,404
Howard 2,611 57.27% 1,677 36.78% 271 5.95% 934 20.49% 4,559
Humboldt 3,568 70.14% 1,252 24.61% 267 5.25% 2,316 45.53% 5,087
Ida 2,655 73.50% 792 21.93% 165 4.57% 1,863 51.57% 3,612
Iowa 5,205 58.46% 3,084 34.64% 615 6.90% 2,121 23.82% 8,904
Jackson 5,824 56.49% 3,837 37.22% 649 6.29% 1,987 19.27% 10,310
Jasper 10,560 55.48% 7,109 37.35% 1,365 7.17% 3,451 18.13% 19,034
Jefferson 3,748 45.95% 3,710 45.49% 698 8.56% 38 0.46% 8,156
Johnson 21,044 27.35% 50,200 65.25% 5,696 7.40% -29,156 -37.90% 76,940
Jones 5,720 56.45% 3,787 37.37% 626 6.18% 1,933 19.08% 10,133
Keokuk 3,390 68.00% 1,342 26.92% 253 5.08% 2,048 41.08% 4,985
Kossuth 5,653 65.68% 2,543 29.55% 411 4.77% 3,110 36.13% 8,607
Lee 8,803 54.50% 6,215 38.48% 1,133 7.02% 2,588 16.02% 16,151
Linn 48,390 41.32% 58,935 50.33% 9,773 8.35% -10,545 -9.01% 117,098
Louisa 3,069 61.28% 1,648 32.91% 291 5.81% 1,421 28.37% 5,008
Lucas 2,877 66.08% 1,239 28.46% 238 5.46% 1,638 37.62% 4,354
Lyon 5,192 81.42% 920 14.43% 265 4.15% 4,272 66.99% 6,377
Madison 5,360 62.07% 2,678 31.01% 598 6.92% 2,682 31.06% 8,636
Mahaska 7,432 69.90% 2,619 24.63% 581 5.47% 4,813 45.27% 10,632
Marion 10,962 61.53% 5,482 30.77% 1,372 7.70% 5,480 30.76% 17,816
Marshall 9,146 50.87% 7,652 42.56% 1,182 6.57% 1,494 8.31% 17,980
Mills 5,067 65.82% 2,090 27.15% 541 7.03% 2,977 38.67% 7,698
Mitchell 3,190 58.89% 1,888 34.85% 339 6.26% 1,302 24.04% 5,417
Monona 3,120 68.24% 1,247 27.27% 205 4.49% 1,873 40.97% 4,572
Monroe 2,638 68.25% 1,056 27.32% 171 4.43% 1,582 40.93% 3,865
Montgomery 3,436 68.12% 1,314 26.05% 294 5.83% 2,122 42.07% 5,044
Muscatine 9,584 49.32% 8,368 43.06% 1,482 7.62% 1,216 6.26% 19,434
O'Brien 5,752 77.67% 1,315 17.76% 339 4.57% 4,437 59.91% 7,406
Osceola 2,531 78.77% 552 17.18% 130 4.05% 1,979 61.59% 3,213
Page 4,893 69.46% 1,807 25.65% 344 4.89% 3,086 43.81% 7,044
Palo Alto 3,081 65.51% 1,398 29.73% 224 4.76% 1,683 35.78% 4,703
Plymouth 9,680 73.39% 2,885 21.87% 625 4.74% 6,795 51.52% 13,190
Pocahontas 2,702 69.91% 963 24.92% 200 5.17% 1,739 44.99% 3,865
Polk 93,492 40.38% 119,804 51.74% 18,259 7.88% -26,312 -11.36% 231,555
Pottawattamie 24,447 57.28% 15,355 35.98% 2,878 6.74% 9,092 21.30% 42,680
Poweshiek 4,946 50.30% 4,304 43.77% 583 5.93% 642 6.53% 9,833
Ringgold 1,824 67.38% 753 27.82% 130 4.80% 1,071 39.56% 2,707
Sac 3,703 71.05% 1,270 24.37% 239 4.58% 2,433 46.68% 5,212
Scott 39,149 45.41% 40,440 46.90% 6,631 7.69% -1,291 -1.49% 86,220
Shelby 4,362 68.48% 1,662 26.09% 346 5.43% 2,700 42.39% 6,370
Sioux 14,785 81.26% 2,300 12.64% 1,109 6.10% 12,485 68.62% 18,194
Story 19,458 38.40% 25,709 50.74% 5,500 10.86% -6,251 -12.34% 50,667
Tama 4,971 56.80% 3,196 36.52% 585 6.68% 1,775 20.28% 8,752
Taylor 2,111 69.69% 758 25.02% 160 5.29% 1,353 44.67% 3,029
Union 3,525 60.44% 1,922 32.96% 385 6.60% 1,603 27.48% 5,832
Van Buren 2,527 70.96% 845 23.73% 189 5.31% 1,682 47.23% 3,561
Wapello 8,715 57.53% 5,594 36.93% 840 5.54% 3,121 20.60% 15,149
Warren 14,814 54.26% 10,411 38.14% 2,075 7.60% 4,403 16.12% 27,300
Washington 6,173 56.48% 3,943 36.08% 813 7.44% 2,230 20.40% 10,929
Wayne 2,069 70.37% 719 24.46% 152 5.17% 1,350 45.91% 2,940
Webster 10,056 57.69% 6,305 36.17% 1,069 6.14% 3,751 21.52% 17,430
Winnebago 3,447 59.56% 1,931 33.37% 409 7.07% 1,516 26.19% 5,787
Winneshiek 5,344 47.03% 5,254 46.24% 764 6.73% 90 0.79% 11,362
Woodbury 24,727 56.56% 16,210 37.08% 2,781 6.36% 8,517 19.48% 43,718
Worth 2,453 57.62% 1,530 35.94% 274 6.44% 923 21.68% 4,257
Wright 3,800 63.06% 1,896 31.46% 330 5.48% 1,904 31.60% 6,026
Totals 800,983 51.15% 653,669 41.74% 111,379 7.11% 147,314 9.41% 1,566,031

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican [23]

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[24]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 48% 45% Rod Blum
2nd 49% 44% Dave Loebsack
3rd 48% 45% David Young
4th 60% 33% Steve King

Analysis

[edit]

The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012. This was also the first time since 1976 that Iowa voted to the right of Texas, which Trump won in this election by 8.99 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980, and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most out of any state.[23] This was the first time since 1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote. It was also the first time since 2004 (and only the second since 1984) that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate. This is also the first election since 1980 in which a non-incumbent Republican won the state.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  2. ^ "Iowa Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  3. ^ "Donald Trump wins Iowa on a wave of popular discontent". Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 16, 2017.
  4. ^ Bash, Dana; Crutchfield, Abigail (November 2, 2016). "Can Trump turn Iowa red?". CNN. Retrieved January 16, 2017.
  5. ^ "United States House of Representatives floor summary for Jan 8, 2009". Clerk.house.gov. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2009.
  6. ^ "Federal elections 2008" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  7. ^ "President Map". The New York Times. November 29, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. ^ "Election Other – President Obama Job Approval". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved December 24, 2015.
  9. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (June 15, 2016). "Poll: Obama approval rating highest since 2012". The Hill. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  10. ^ Cohn, Nate (January 19, 2015). "What a Rise in Obama's Approval Rating Means for 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  11. ^ "Joe Biden Decides Not to Enter Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  12. ^ The Green Papers
  13. ^ Iowa Democrats
  14. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton".
  15. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton".
  16. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  17. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  18. ^ "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  19. ^ Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  20. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  21. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  22. ^ Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  23. ^ a b Bentley, Chris (October 22, 2019). "Dozens Of Iowa Counties Flipped Red For Trump in 2016. Will They Stand By Him In 2020?". WBUR. Archived from the original on October 22, 2019. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  24. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
[edit]
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