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2016 United States presidential election in Utah

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Utah
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout57.7% [1]Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Home state New York New York Utah
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Mindy Finn
Electoral vote 6 0 0
Popular vote 515,231 310,676 243,690
Percentage 45.54% 27.46% 21.54%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On March 22, 2016,[2] in the presidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system of semi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who are unaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing. Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidate Evan McMullin received 21.5 percent.[3]

Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%.[a] However, this was due to McMullin's strong third-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Hubert Humphrey in 1968).

This was one of only three states, the others being Idaho and Vermont, where the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes for Bernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Salt Lake or Summit Counties since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900, respectively. The state was one of 11 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats, and the largest of any of the states that did so.

Caucus elections

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Utah held its presidential caucuses on March 22, 2016.

Democratic caucus

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Main article: 2016 Utah Democratic presidential caucuses

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:

Utah Democratic caucuses, March 22, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 62,992 79.21% 27 2 29
Hillary Clinton 16,166 20.33% 6 2 8
Others 34 0.04%
Uncommitted 334 0.42% 0 0 0
Total 79,526 100% 33 4 37
Source: Utah Democratic Party

Republican caucus

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Republican caucus results by county:
  Cruz
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:

Utah Republican caucus, March 22, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 132,904 69.46% 40 0 40
John Kasich 31,992 16.72% 0 0 0
Donald Trump 26,434 13.82% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 191,330 100.00% 40 0 40
Source: The Green Papers

General election

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Voting history

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Main article: Political party strength in Utah

The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since 1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since 1952 (in 1964). The state has a majority of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012.[4] This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the 2012 election. However, Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters.[5] Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump.[6] As a result, Larry Sabato's online election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.[7]

Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%.[8] McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversial video from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women.[9] In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent.[10] This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[11] Likely R November 6, 2016
CNN[12] Lean R November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[13] Lean R November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[14] Safe R November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[15] Lean R November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Lean R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[17] Likely R November 8, 2016
Fox News[18] Lean R November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Utah

Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The polling was close due to the large percentage of people polled who were voting for McMullin. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.[19]

Candidates on the ballot

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The following candidates were listed on the ballot:

Candidates not on the ballot

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The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:

  • Stephen Paul Parks
  • Mike Smith & Daniel White
  • Laurence Kotlikoff & Edward Leamer
  • Tom Hoefling & Steve Schulin
  • David Limbaugh & Bo Gingrich
  • Dustin Baird & Brandon Russell
  • Andrew D. Basiago & Karen D. Kinnison
  • Emidio Soltysik & Angela Nicole Walker
  • Tony Valdivia & Aaron Roy Barriere
  • Cherunda Fox & Roger Kushner
  • Sheila "Samm" Tittle & R. Charles Casper-Kacprowicz
  • Robert L. Buchanan & Jason A. Washington
  • Marshall Schoenke & James Creighton Mitchell Jr.
  • Janet Reid & John E. Reid
  • Jamin Burton & Victor Neves

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in Utah[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		515,231 45.54% −27.08%
Democratic Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine 		310,676 27.46% +2.77%
Independent Evan McMullin
Nathan Johnson 		243,690 21.54% N/A
Libertarian Gary Johnson
Bill Weld 		39,608 3.50% +2.27%
Green Jill Stein
Ajamu Baraka 		9,438 0.83% +0.46%
Constitution Darrell Castle
Scott Bradley 		8,032 0.71% +0.43%
Independent American Rocky Giordani
Farley Anderson 		2,752 0.24% N/A
Independent Rocky De La Fuente
Michael Steinberg 		883 0.08% N/A
Independent Monica Moorehead
Lamont Lilly 		544 0.05% N/A
Independent Alyson Kennedy
Osborne Hart 		521 0.05% N/A
Write-in 55 0.00%
Total votes 1,131,430 100.00%

By county

[edit]
County[21] Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Evan McMullin
Unaffiliated 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Jill Stein
Green 		Darrell Castle
Constitution 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Beaver 1,838 73.37% 264 10.54% 323 12.89% 36 1.44% 10 0.40% 12 0.48% 22 0.88% 1,515[b] 60.48% 2,505
Box Elder 12,230 61.53% 2,282 11.48% 4,257 21.42% 591 2.97% 76 0.38% 210 1.06% 232 1.17% 7,973[b] 40.11% 19,878
Cache 21,139 45.25% 8,563 18.33% 13,695 29.31% 1,630 3.49% 330 0.71% 669 1.43% 692 1.48% 7,444[b] 15.94% 46,718
Carbon 5,275 65.95% 1,717 21.47% 615 7.69% 191 2.39% 41 0.51% 47 0.59% 113 1.42% 3,558 44.48% 7,999
Daggett 331 69.39% 77 16.14% 44 9.22% 17 3.56% 0 0.00% 4 0.84% 4 0.84% 254 53.25% 477
Davis 62,219 44.35% 28,776 20.51% 39,735 28.32% 5,390 3.84% 864 0.62% 883 0.63% 2,421 1.72% 22,484[b] 16.03% 140,288
Duchesne 5,508 78.82% 500 7.16% 730 10.45% 107 1.53% 18 0.26% 68 0.97% 57 0.82% 4,778[b] 68.37% 6,988
Emery 3,425 79.37% 380 8.81% 362 8.39% 71 1.65% 3 0.07% 15 0.35% 59 1.37% 3,045 70.56% 4,315
Garfield 1,606 67.96% 358 15.15% 286 12.10% 61 2.58% 16 0.68% 3 0.13% 33 1.39% 1,248 52.81% 2,363
Grand 1,975 42.93% 1,960 42.60% 281 6.11% 180 3.91% 109 2.37% 10 0.22% 86 1.87% 15 0.33% 4,601
Iron 11,561 64.84% 2,450 13.74% 2,752 15.43% 540 3.03% 102 0.57% 173 0.97% 253 1.41% 8,809[b] 49.41% 17,831
Juab 2,827 66.97% 442 10.47% 762 18.05% 72 1.71% 14 0.33% 44 1.04% 60 1.42% 2,065[b] 48.92% 4,221
Kane 2,265 64.02% 741 20.94% 352 9.95% 86 2.43% 31 0.88% 15 0.42% 48 1.35% 1,524 43.08% 3,538
Millard 3,860 73.26% 431 8.18% 719 13.65% 108 2.05% 6 0.11% 99 1.88% 46 0.86% 3,141[b] 59.61% 5,269
Morgan 3,188 61.05% 577 11.05% 1,198 22.94% 142 2.72% 11 0.21% 68 1.30% 38 0.73% 1,990[b] 38.11% 5,222
Piute 626 85.75% 47 6.44% 36 4.93% 11 1.51% 1 0.14% 5 0.68% 4 0.55% 579 79.31% 730
Rich 797 71.29% 104 9.30% 174 15.56% 21 1.88% 1 0.09% 10 0.89% 11 0.99% 623[b] 55.73% 1,118
Salt Lake 138,043 32.58% 175,863 41.50% 79,880 18.85% 16,306 3.85% 4,965 1.17% 2,047 0.48% 6,639 1.57% −37,820 −8.92% 423,743
San Juan 2,645 47.80% 2,042 36.90% 486 8.78% 165 2.98% 47 0.85% 45 0.81% 104 1.88% 603 10.90% 5,534
Sanpete 6,673 65.12% 1,061 10.35% 2,038 19.89% 186 1.82% 30 0.29% 139 1.36% 120 1.17% 4,635[b] 45.23% 10,247
Sevier 6,740 77.52% 695 7.99% 916 10.53% 175 2.01% 29 0.33% 67 0.77% 73 0.84% 5,824[b] 66.99% 8,695
Summit 7,333 35.11% 10,503 50.29% 1,786 8.55% 756 3.62% 170 0.81% 44 0.21% 293 1.40% −3,170 −15.18% 20,885
Tooele 11,169 50.79% 4,573 20.79% 4,769 21.69% 783 3.56% 182 0.83% 191 0.87% 202 0.92% 6,400[b] 29.10% 21,992
Uintah 9,810 76.26% 995 7.73% 1,496 11.63% 275 2.14% 43 0.33% 129 1.00% 116 0.90% 8,314[b] 64.63% 12,864
Utah 102,182 50.18% 28,522 14.01% 60,532 29.72% 6,437 3.16% 1,030 0.51% 1,994 0.98% 2,945 1.44% 41,650[b] 20.46% 203,642
Wasatch 6,115 49.85% 3,063 24.97% 2,315 18.87% 409 3.33% 70 0.57% 103 0.84% 191 1.56% 3,052 24.88% 12,266
Washington 42,650 68.38% 10,288 16.49% 6,565 10.53% 1,473 2.36% 290 0.46% 459 0.74% 646 1.04% 32,362 51.89% 62,371
Wayne 966 67.74% 271 19.00% 135 9.47% 18 1.26% 12 0.84% 14 0.98% 10 0.70% 695 48.74% 1,426
Weber 40,235 46.78% 23,131 26.89% 16,451 19.13% 3,371 3.92% 937 1.09% 465 0.54% 1,416 1.64% 17,104 19.89% 86,006
Totals 515,231 45.05% 310,676 27.16% 243,690 21.31% 39,608 3.46% 9,438 0.83% 8,032 0.70% 17,057 1.49% 204,555 17.89% 1,143,732
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

[22]

By congressional district

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Trump won all four congressional districts.[23]

District Trump Clinton McMullin Representative
1st 49.7% 22.4% 22.3% Rob Bishop
2nd 46.0% 32.0% 16.9% Chris Stewart
3rd 47.2% 23.3% 24.5% Jason Chaffetz
4th 39.1% 32.4% 22.5% Mia Love

Analysis

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Utah gave the Republican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him six electoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in a state he won in 2016.[24][25] Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than did Mitt Romney in 2012.[26] In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in the Provo-Orem, Logan, and Ogden metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas.[27] Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.[28]

Evan McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state since Ross Perot during the 1992 presidential election.[c][29][30] He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county.[d] In Utah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since 1968.[31]

Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate since George Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in 1792,[e] and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of the Mississippi River.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ In 1992, George H. W. Bush won Utah by only 16.02 points; however, this was ahead of Ross Perot. Bill Clinton lost Utah by 18.71 points in that election.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o In counties where McMullin placed second, ahead of Clinton, the Margin given is Trump's vote and percentage minus McMullin's vote and percentage.
  3. ^ Perot exceeded McMullin’s Utah performance in twenty-six of the fifty states in 1992, with his best performance being 30.44 percent in Maine.
  4. ^ The other four were William Lemke in the North Dakota counties of Burke, Divide, Williams, Mountrail and Towner in 1936, George Wallace in Utah’s own Kane County in 1968, John G. Schmitz in the four Idaho counties of Fremont, Jefferson, Lemhi and Madison in 1972, and Perot in numerous counties in 1992 and a few in 1996.
  5. ^ Robert Marion La Follette senior in 1924 did win his home state of Wisconsin under an “Independent” banner,[32] and exceeded McMullin performance under a similar “Independent” banner in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nevada and Oregon. In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt also exceeded McMullin’s vote share under the “Independent” banner in Kansas, as did James B. Weaver in South Dakota in 1892.

References

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  1. ^ "Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  2. ^ "2016 Primary Schedule – 2016 Election Central". Uspresidentialelectionnews.com. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  3. ^ "2016 General Election Results" (PDF). November 28, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 14, 2021. Retrieved April 23, 2017.
  4. ^ Bickel, Joshua (November 7, 2012). "How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis". Pew Research Center. Pew Research Center. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  5. ^ Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  6. ^ Azari, Julia (July 6, 2016). "The States That Love (And Hate) Third-Party Candidates". FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  7. ^ Kondik, Kyle; Sabato, Larry; Skelley, Geoffrey. "The Electoral College: Map No. 2". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved July 15, 2016.
  8. ^ "UT Statewide Presidential Polling October 2016 Memo - Y2.pdf" (PDF). Dropbox. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  9. ^ Dennis Romboy (October 11, 2016). "Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters". Deseret News. Archived from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ "Emerson College Polls: Utah breaking for third-party candidate McMullin. Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on" (PDF). Media.wix.com. Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  14. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  16. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  17. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  19. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin".
  20. ^ "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  21. ^ "Statewide General Election Results" (PDF). Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Utah. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
  22. ^ "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  23. ^ "Trump, Clinton underperformed in Utah's four Congressional Districts in 2016". Utah Policy. March 28, 2017.
  24. ^ "2016 election results: Utah". edition.cnn.com.
  25. ^ Roche, Lisa Riley (September 26, 2018). "Poll: Majority of Utahns don't want second term for Trump". KSL. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  26. ^ "See a Map That Shows Exactly Why Trump Won". Time. December 1, 2016. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  27. ^ Florida, Richard (December 7, 2016). "The Metro Areas That Swung for Trump and Clinton". Citylab. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  28. ^ Gehrke, Robert (November 18, 2016). "While Mormons nationally stuck with Trump, in Utah he lagged". Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  29. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  30. ^ McCombs, Brady (November 9, 2016). "Trump wins Utah to extend GOP's 5-decade winning streak". Associated Press. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  31. ^ England, Katie (November 28, 2016). "Utah County gave Evan McMullin highest percentage of votes of any non-Republican since 1968". Daily Herald. Archived from the original on May 5, 2019. Retrieved May 5, 2019.
  32. ^ Dave Leip. "1924 Presidential General Election Results – Wisconsin". Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas.
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