2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming
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| Turnout | 77.43%  | ||||||||||||||||
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  Barrasso: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Trauner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Wyoming |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Wyoming took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Wyoming. The primary election took place August 21, 2018.[1] Republican John Barrasso won re-election with 67% percent of the vote, the lowest percentage of his three U.S. Senate campaigns and the closest a Democrat has come to winning a seat since the 1996 election, and the first time since that election in which Democrats managed to even win counties in the state, those being Teton and Albany, and the first time that the Democratic candidate won any counties for this seat since 1994. Trauner was the first Democrat to win Teton county in a Senate contest since 1940, and the first ever losing Democrat to do so.
Background
[edit]In 2012, incumbent Republican John Barrasso was re-elected with 76% of the vote. Heavily rural, Wyoming has the smallest population of any state and is considered the most Republican state in the nation. It has not elected a Democratic Senate candidate since 1970. In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain carried the state with 64% of the vote. Republican Mitt Romney won it in 2012 with 68% of the vote, and Republican Donald Trump won it in 2016 with 67% of the vote.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- John Barrasso, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Declared
[edit]- Dave Dodson, businessman[3]
- Rocky De La Fuente, perennial candidate, and candidate for President of the United States in 2016[4]
- John Holtz, attorney[3]
- Anthony Van Risseghem[3]
Declined
[edit]- Foster Friess, businessman (running for Governor of Wyoming)[5][6]
- Erik Prince, founder of Academi[7]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Charlie Hardy, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in 2016[3] (endorsed Dave Dodson)
Results
[edit]
Barrasso
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Dodson
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 74,292 | 64.76% | |
| Republican | Dave Dodson | 32,647 | 28.46% | |
| Republican | John Holtz | 2,981 | 2.60% | |
| Republican | Charlie Hardy (withdrawn) | 2,377 | 2.07% | |
| Republican | Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 1,280 | 1.16% | |
| Republican | Anthony Van Risseghem | 870 | 0.7% | |
| Write-in | 267 | 0.23% | ||
| Total votes | 114,714 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Gary Trauner, businessman and nominee for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 and 2008[9]
Declined
[edit]- Mary Throne, former Minority Leader of the Wyoming House of Representatives (running for Governor)[10][11]
Results
[edit]
Trauner
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 17,562 | 98.90% | |
| Write-in | 195 | 1.10% | ||
| Total votes | 17,757 | 100% | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Withdrew
[edit]- Dave Dodson, businessman[12] (running as a Republican)[3]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[16][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[17] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Barrasso (R) |
Gary Trauner (D) |
Joseph Porambo (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[19] | November 2–4, 2018 | 858 | – | 60% | 31% | 6% | – |
Endorsements
[edit]John Barrasso (R)
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[20]
Gary Trauner (D)
Organizations
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Barrasso (incumbent) | 136,210 | 66.96% | −8.70% | |
| Democratic | Gary Trauner | 61,227 | 30.10% | +8.45% | |
| Libertarian | Joseph Porambo | 5,658 | 2.78% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 325 | 0.16% | -0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 203,420 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]| John Barrasso Republican |
Gary Trauner Democrat |
Joseph Porambo Libertarian |
Write-Ins | Total | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
| Albany | 6,366 | 44.15% | 7,576 | 52.54% | 442 | 3.07% | 35 | 0.24% | 14,419 |
| Big Horn | 3,564 | 82.56% | 639 | 14.80% | 102 | 2.36% | 12 | 0.28% | 4,317 |
| Campbell | 11,020 | 84.44% | 1,628 | 12.47% | 387 | 2.97% | 16 | 0.12% | 13,051 |
| Carbon | 3,673 | 70.72% | 1,359 | 26.16% | 156 | 3.00% | 6 | 0.12% | 5,194 |
| Converse | 3,959 | 79.87% | 834 | 16.82% | 153 | 3.09% | 11 | 0.22% | 4,957 |
| Crook | 2,642 | 85.56% | 335 | 10.84% | 110 | 3.56% | 1 | 0.03% | 3,089 |
| Fremont | 9,262 | 64.34% | 4,734 | 32.89% | 380 | 2.64% | 19 | 0.13% | 14,395 |
| Goshen | 3,658 | 76.24% | 1,020 | 21.26% | 115 | 2.40% | 5 | 0.10% | 4,798 |
| Hot Springs | 1,742 | 77.15% | 455 | 20.15% | 58 | 2.57% | 3 | 0.13% | 2,258 |
| Johnson | 3,085 | 79.33% | 722 | 18.57% | 79 | 2.03% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,889 |
| Laramie | 19,473 | 59.72% | 12,167 | 37.31% | 907 | 2.78% | 61 | 0.19% | 32,608 |
| Lincoln | 5,846 | 81.23% | 1,152 | 16.01% | 187 | 2.60% | 12 | 0.16% | 7,197 |
| Natrona | 16,359 | 66.87% | 7,285 | 29.78% | 778 | 3.18% | 42 | 0.17% | 24,464 |
| Niobrara | 980 | 84.56% | 144 | 12.42% | 32 | 2.76% | 3 | 0.26% | 1,159 |
| Park | 8,938 | 75.57% | 2,589 | 21.89% | 276 | 2.33% | 24 | 0.20% | 11,827 |
| Platte | 2,850 | 75.30% | 801 | 21.16% | 131 | 3.46% | 3 | 0.08% | 3,785 |
| Sheridan | 8,318 | 70.46% | 3,205 | 27.15% | 261 | 2.21% | 21 | 0.18% | 11,805 |
| Sublette | 2,653 | 77.87% | 668 | 19.61% | 84 | 2.47% | 2 | 0.06% | 3,407 |
| Sweetwater | 8,577 | 66.11% | 3,943 | 30.39% | 430 | 3.31% | 23 | 0.18% | 12,973 |
| Teton | 3,833 | 32.62% | 7,691 | 65.46% | 220 | 1.87% | 6 | 0.05% | 11,750 |
| Uinta | 4,713 | 75.05% | 1,371 | 21.83% | 188 | 2.99% | 8 | 0.13% | 6,280 |
| Washakie | 2,423 | 77.91% | 588 | 18.91% | 93 | 2.99% | 6 | 0.19% | 3,110 |
| Weston | 2,275 | 84.64% | 321 | 11.94% | 89 | 3.31% | 3 | 0.11% | 2,688 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Notes
[edit]- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
References
[edit]- ^ "2018 Key Election Dates" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State.
- ^ "Barrasso says he's ready to take on possible primary challenges". wyomingnews.com. October 11, 2017. Retrieved April 4, 2018.
- ^ a b c d e "2018 Primary Election Candidate Roster" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State. Retrieved June 1, 2018.
- ^ "Former Presidential Candidate Files In Wyoming U.S. Senate Race". KGAB AM 650. May 25, 2018. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ Costa, Robert (October 9, 2017). "GOP megadonor Foster Friess exploring a run for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
- ^ "GOP megadonor Friess to run for Wyoming governor". Politico. April 20, 2018. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
- ^ Peters, Jeremy W.; Haberman, Maggie; Thrush, Glenn (October 8, 2017). "Erik Prince, Blackwater Founder, Weighs Primary Challenge to Wyoming Republican". The New York Times. Retrieved October 9, 2017.
- ^ a b Statewide Candidates Official Summary
- ^ "Democrat Gary Trauner Announces Bid for Wyoming U.S. Senate". U.S. News & World Report. December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
- ^ Funk, Joel (August 27, 2017). "Former Wyoming lawmaker Mary Throne announces bid for governor". Wyoming Tribune Eagle. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
- ^ Greenwald, Joy (August 25, 2017). "Throne Launches Campaign for Wyoming Governor". KGAB. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
- ^ "Wealthy independent enters Wyoming US Senate race". usnews.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ Change Research
- ^ Arno Rosenfeld (October 25, 2017). "Trump is backing Barrasso ahead of a reelection campaign. Will that matter?". trib.com. Retrieved August 26, 2018.
- ^ "End Citizens United Endorses Gary Trauner for U.S. Senate in Wyoming". End Citizens United. March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
- ^ "2018 General Election Results" (PDF). Wyoming State Canvassing Board.
- ^ "Statewide Candidates Official Summary - Wyoming General Election - November 6, 2018" (PDF). Wyoming Secretary of State.
External links
[edit]- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites