2028 United States presidential election
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | ||||||||||||||
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 2028 electoral map, based on 2020 census | ||||||||||||||
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The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Republican President Donald Trump's final term is set to expire at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the 2028 election will be inaugurated as the 48th president and the 51st vice president.[a] The major party candidates for the 2028 election will be determined at the 2028 Republican National Convention and the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
In 2024, after winning the 2016 election and losing the 2020 election, Trump launched a campaign for a second non-consecutive term, securing the Republican nomination and selecting JD Vance as his running mate. He initially ran against President Joe Biden up until July 2024, when Biden withdrew and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris, who became the Democratic nominee. Trump then won the 2024 United States presidential election and secured a second, non-consecutive term in office. Due to the restrictions imposed by the 22nd Amendment, Trump is barred from seeking re-election in 2028.[2]
This presidential election will take place alongside three major elections: the U.S. Senate elections for 34 seats, the U.S. House elections for all 435 seats, and gubernatorial elections in 11 states and two territories.
Background
Eligibility
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years.[3] The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice.[4]
Procedure
Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections or caucuses that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention.[5] Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention. If no candidate wins a majority of their party's delegates' votes, or if like the 2024 election, a party's presumptive nominee drops out of the race between the primaries and the convention, a brokered convention may be held: the delegates are then "released" and are free to switch their allegiance to a different candidate.[6] The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[7] In recent times, election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny. Many officials in different states have sought additional funding to hire more personnel, improve security, and lengthen training.[8]
Electoral map
 | This section needs additional citations for verification. (November 2024) |
Swing states
Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can "swing" between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. In 2028 the expected swing states included the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[9] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024.[citation needed]
Blue states
Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The current blue states include the so-called blue wall excepting Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan;[10] as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, formerly swing states that became reliably blue in recent years.[11] Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, is also sometimes considered blue.[12]
Red states
Red states, also known as the Red Sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The Red Sea has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the Red Sea occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. Formerly considered swing states, Ohio and Florida voted for Donald Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins that suggest they are no longer swing states.[13][14][15]
Democratic Party
Potential candidates
Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[16][17]
- Pete Buttigieg, United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present); Mayor of South Bend (2012–2020), candidate for president in 2020[18][19]
- Ruben Gallego, United States Representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2023–present); United States Representative from Arizona's 7th congressional district (2015–2023)[20]
- Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019–present); Lieutenant Governor of California (2011–2019); Mayor of San Francisco (2004–2011)[21][22]
- Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2020–present); Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023)[20][23]
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)[20][23]
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Republican Party
Potential candidates
Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
- Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas (2013–present), former Solicitor General of Texas (2003–2008), candidate for president in 2016[24]
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present), candidate for president in 2024, former United States Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[24]
- Nikki Haley, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018), former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017), former State Representative (2005–2011), candidate for president of the United States in 2024[24]
- Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present), former Secretary of State of Georgia (2010–2018), State Senator (2003–2007)[24]
- Vivek Ramaswamy, former executive chairman of Strive Asset Management (2022–2023), former CEO of Roivant Sciences (2014–2021), candidate for president of the United States in 2024[24]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas (2023–present), former White House Press Secretary (2017–2019), daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee[24]
- Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina (2013–present), candidate for president in 2024, former U.S. Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013), former state representative from the 117th district (2009–2011), and former member of the Charleston County Council from the 3rd district (1995–2009)[24]
- JD Vance, Vice President-elect of the United States, United States Senator from Ohio (2023–present)[25][24]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[24]
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Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Tucker Carlson |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
JD Vance |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | ||||||||
| Echelon Insights | July 19–21, 2024 | 982 (RV) | – | 14% | 9% | 10% | 25% | 16%[c] |
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 832 (RV) | 6% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 1% | 29%[d] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Gavin Newsom |
Other/ Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 United States presidential election held. | ||||||||
| Morning Consult/Politico | May 28–29, 2024 | 3,997 (RV) | 10% | 21% | 10% | 11%[e] | ||
| Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 499 (RV) | 13% | 33% | 11% | 43%[f] | ||
Notes
- ^ JD Vance, the 50th Vice President of the United States, is eligible for reelection to the position in 2028. Therefore, the second inauguration of the 50th vice president under a different president is also possible.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Ted Cruz with 4%; Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 3%; Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, & Tim Scott with 2%; Katie Britt, Byron Donalds, & Glenn Youngkin with 1%; Undecided with 21%
- ^ Greg Abbott with 3%; Kari Lake & Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, & Elise Stefanik with 1%; Katie Britt with 0%; Undecided with 17%
- ^ Mark Kelly & Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; Josh Shapiro with 3%; "Don't know/No opinion" with 41% & "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ J.B. Pritzker & Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro, & Raphael Warnock with 2%; Andy Beshear & Wes Moore with 1%; Undecided with 29%
References
- ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ Jones, Erin; Loe, Megan (November 6, 2024). "No, Donald Trump cannot run for president again in 2028". KGW. Archived from the original on November 8, 2024.
- ^ "The 2nd Article of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "Expert explainer: How primaries work in the U.S. presidential election". Western News. January 15, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "National conventions | USAGov". www.usa.gov. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ^ Swenson, Ali (September 11, 2024). "Election officials ask for more federal money but say voting is secure in their states". Associated Press. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Jessica Pearce Rotondi (January 3, 2024). "What Are Swing States and Why Are They Critical in US Elections?". HISTORY.
- ^ "The Latest: Harris keeps a focus on 'blue wall' states in the campaign's final weeks". AP News. October 17, 2024.
- ^ Mejia, Elena; Skelley, Geoffrey (December 8, 2020). "How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map". Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
- ^ Weisman, Jonathan; Epstein, Reid J. (September 21, 2024). "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election Reid J. Epstein". The New York Times.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (August 29, 2023). "No, Ohio Is Not in Play". Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Bischoff, Laura A. (November 8, 2024). "What's the future for Ohio Democrats after huge election losses?". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Kephart, Tim (November 6, 2024). "Florida joins the rest of the Deep South as a Republican stronghold". ABC Action News. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ "JD Vance? Andy Beshear? The Rock? Here are the betting favorites to be president in 2028". whas11.com. November 7, 2024.
- ^ Garcia, Joseph (November 7, 2024). "Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear comments on possible presidential run". whas11.com. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
- ^ Mallon, Elaine (November 7, 2024). "Five Democrats in prime position to be face of the party in 2028". Washington Examiner. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
- ^ "5 Democrats who could run for president in 2028". Yahoo News. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
- ^ a b c Carbonaro, Giulia (November 6, 2024). "Who will run in 2028? Seven potential Democratic candidates". Newsweek. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Aitken, Peter (November 7, 2024). "Will Gavin Newsom seize the helm of a rudderless Democratic Party?". Newsweek. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ Udasin, Sharon (November 7, 2024). "California Gov. Newsom calls for special legislative session after Trump win". The Hill. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Ward, Myah (July 21, 2024). "Biden's exit blows a hole in the political rise of ambitious Democrats". Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Dixon, Matt (November 7, 2024). "Trump's win maintains his hold on the GOP. It also kicks off plans for a succession". NBC News. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
- ^ Bickerton, James (November 6, 2024). "2028 Odds Released—Michelle Obama vs JD Vance?". Newsweek. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
