Talk:2028 United States presidential election

Protected edit request on 5 November 2024

== 2028 United States presidential election ==



{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2028 United States presidential election
| country = United States 
| type = presidential
| opinion_polls =
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = 2024 United States presidential election
| previous_year = ''2024''
| next_election = 2032 United States presidential election
| next_year = ''2032''
| election_date = November 7, 2028
| flag_year = 
| votes_for_election = 
| needed_votes =
| image1 =
| nominee1 =
| party1 = 
| home_state1 =
| popular_vote1 =
| percentage1 =
| image2 = 
| nominee2 =
| party2 = 
| home_state2 =
| popular_vote2 =
| percentage2 =
| map_image = {{2024 United States presidential election imagemap}}
| map_size = 
| map_caption = 2024 electoral map, based on the results of the [[2020 United States census|2020 census]]
| image_size = 200x200px
| title = [[President of the United States|President]]
| before_election = TBD
| before_party = 
| after_election = TBD
| after_party = 
}}
{{US 2028 presidential elections series}}

The '''2028 United States presidential election''' will be the 61st quadrennial U.S. presidential election. 

If Republican [[Donald Trump]] is elected President in [[2024 United States presidential election|2024]] to a second, nonconsecutive term, then he would be ineligible to seek a third term due to the restrictions of the [[Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution|Twenty-second Amendment]], as he won in 2016, and in this case, would've won in 2024. If Democrat [[Kamala Harris]] wins instead, she would then be eligible to seek a second term.

[[United States presidential election|U.S. presidential elections]] are scheduled on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Following that schedule, the 2028 elections are to be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.<ref name="va">{{cite web|title=Election Planning Calendar|url=http://www.essex-virginia.org/UserFiles/Servers/Server_62876/File/Voter%20Registration/Election%20Planning%20Calendar%20Through%202024%20%28ESSEX%29.pdf|website=essex-virginia.org|publisher=[[Essex County, Virginia]]|accessdate=6 February 2016}}</ref> 

The winner of the 2028 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.

==Nominations== 

===Republican Party===
{{further information|2028 Republican Party presidential primaries}}


====Potential candidates====

===Democratic Party===
{{further information|2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries}}


====Potential candidates====

==See also==
*[[2028 United States elections]]
*[[2028 United States gubernatorial elections]]
*[[2028 United States House of Representatives elections]]
*[[2028 United States Senate elections]]

==Notes==
{{notelist}}

==References==
{{reflist}}

==External links==
{{Wikiquote}}

{{2028 United States presidential election}}
{{2028 United States elections}}
{{United States presidential elections}}
{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:United States presidential election, 2020}}

2W10 (talk) 01:02, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Can we please wait at least until the 2024 election happens and the protection expires? This draft still contains nothing but boilerplate as it stands. * Pppery * _{it has begun...} 06:28, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Can we also avoid screwing the Table of Contents? Talk pages are not sandboxes, and the above code should have been put in draftspace, e.g. at Draft:2028 United States presidential election - which already exists and, whilst highly speculative, does have significantly more sourced conten than what has been given above. --Redrose64 🌹 (talk) 08:09, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

What should the criteria be for inclusion?

Since there's been an edit war over who to include, there should probably be a discussion so we can discuss what the inclusion criteria should be for the article. David O. Johnson (talk) 00:52, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Same as always: two recent substantial sources. I will keep removing the whole list if it's just sourced to 2022 and 2023 and kitchen sink lists rather than recent substance. Reywas92^Talk 15:09, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

@Reywas92: It appears as though nearly all of the candidates should be removed under this criteria, which I agree with. Arguably, I would go so far as to claim that candidates in either list need to have at least three articles from "generally reliable" sources at WP:RSP to be included. In order of issues:

• Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Brian Kemp, Vivek Ramaswamy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Tim Scott, and Glenn Youngkin are cited only to an NBC News article.
• Ron DeSantis is cited to NBC News and The Floridian, though there is a source from The New York Times that could replace it.
• JD Vance is cited to NBC News and Newsweek, which is not a reliable source for politics.
• Andy Beshear is cited to WHAS-TV twice, which should be considered once, especially given that one of the citations is about a betting website that lists Dwayne Johnson's chances alongside Beshear.
• Pete Buttigieg, Ruben Gallego, Wes Moore, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Raphael Warnock, and Gretchen Whitmer are cited to Newsweek or the Washington Examiner, which cannot be used to substantiate WP:EXCEPTIONAL claims. I may be able to find citations for Newsom and Whitmer. Gallego is particularly exceptional given that he has not even been sworn in as senator yet.

I have removed all of these individuals and linked to this section. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 23:01, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

When will these edit wars stop?

Important edits including mines have been reverted due to the outcomes of these edit wars, they need to stop desperately or consequence will be asserted. Vlklng (talk) 00:55, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Inclusion of Donald Trump

Currently, President Donald Trump is listed under an "Ineligible" section among potential 2028 Republican candidates. This listing is a relic of pre-2024 speculation. For consistency, it would be more appropriate to remove him, as similar listings were not made for Barack Obama in 2016 or George W. Bush in 2008. 174.247.187.75 (talk) 00:59, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Well, this time it is confusing some people due to the fact that he has had non-consecutive terms. I think it would be better to keep him on for simple clarification. Lukt64 (talk) 01:26, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Role for Donald Trump

I say we should start referring to Donald Trump as “President” rather than “President-elect”, this makes us avoid the hassle of changing all these words after he’s inaugurated in January, which by then this article will be more complex. And also, this is a 2028 election, he’ll already be POTUS by then and preparing to leave office. Vlklng (talk) 03:38, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

I disagree. He's the president-elect until January 20. David O. Johnson (talk) 04:26, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

We should look at the time of this article, by then he’ll already be president. Vlklng (talk) 11:37, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

The article is talking about an event in 2028, however. At the time of the event of the article, Donald Trump would be "President of the United States" (assuming there is no removal from office or tragedy) and not "President-elect of the United States". AmericanBaath (talk) 12:20, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

This article is public not a draft anymore and as of November 10th he’s the president elect of we put him as president it would break WP policies John Bois (talk) 06:22, 10 November 2024 (UTC)

Ineligible

If you list trump as ineligible, you should also list Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and George Bush as ineligible. 200.12.168.35 (talk) 03:53, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

The incumbent on their final term has been listed as ineligible on all election pages John Bois (talk) 06:24, 10 November 2024 (UTC)

Candidates

Should we be using sources from before the last election as citations for speculation about this one? We have eight D candidates - including Kamala Harris, who I hesitatingly suggest is unlikely to give it another go - listed with a source from 2023 with Joe Biden's name in the headline. Should we not refrain from including politicians as candidates until after we have a reliable source talking about them from after Trump's victory? OZOO (t) (c) 12:15, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

I tend to agree. This is why there has been a "in the past six months" rules for similar candidate listings. David O. Johnson (talk) 12:42, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Correct. Ideally all sources will be after the 2024 election, but within the last 6 months is also appropriate. Reywas92^Talk 15:07, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

I support the idea of only using sources from after the 2024 election, for purposes of context. I may be mistaken, but I believe we have done it this way in previous election articles. A. Randomdude0000 (talk) 18:52, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

I was thinking of pruning the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries section (probably using the up-to-date refs that are currently in this article) and just transcluding it to this article. It'd make maintenance easier (plus it's been done that way before in the 2024 United States presidential election article). Thoughts? David O. Johnson (talk) 21:07, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Why isn't Vice President Harris in the Democratic candidates section if she is the first candidate referenced in the intro paragraphs as a possible Democratic candidate for 2028? There have been multiple news pieces referencing the possibility of her running again. 128.164.171.31 (talk) 16:10, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

I removed Harris from the intro, since it wasn't sourced. David O. Johnson (talk) 17:26, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 8 November 2024

Re-add the potential candidate and polling sections removed without consensus. This is article is not in draft-space anymore, editors need consensus for removing almost the entire prose of the article. 72.0.191.77 (talk) 18:13, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Please see the Talk:2028 United States presidential election#What should the criteria be for inclusion? section above.David O. Johnson (talk) 18:45, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 8 November 2024 (2)

Add Joe biden to the potencial candidates because he did not say he would retire 177.71.1.118 (talk) 19:47, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Biden did not confirm his retirement in any point, a 2028 run cannot get ruled out 177.71.1.118 (talk) 19:51, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

The overwhelming majority of politicians have "not ruled out" a run in 2028. If that was the only metric for including someone on the potential candidates list, we could flood the page with hundreds of potential candidates.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest Biden will run in 2028. He'll be 85, for one thing, but also I don't think anyone would back him if he tried and he hasn't said anything about it at all. AxioChrono (talk) 20:19, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

 Not done per comment above. A. Randomdude0000 (talk) 20:35, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Add ALL presidents who've been 22nd

Shouldn't it list the other living presidents, in addition to Trump, who have been term-limited?. _pbp 00:35, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 9 November 2024

The "Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Newsweek" poll should be categorized under a hypothetical polling section, as it surveyed voters on their support in the scenario where Donald Trump loses the 2024 election. Anopisthograph (talk) 06:38, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

 Not done: The page's protection level has changed since this request was placed. You should now be able to edit the page yourself. If you still seem to be unable to, please reopen the request with further details. MadGuy7023 (talk) 22:15, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Potential Republican candidates

I find it strange that nobody has added for the Republican Party under potential candidates. I think it would be fair to add JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy at this time. AmericanBaath (talk) 14:30, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Nikki Haley should be added as well. She had lots of momentum during the initial primary and there's no doubt she'll seek to run again in 2028 Sendbobspicspls (talk) 22:14, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

More Potential Democratic Candidates too.

According to Newsweek, here is some. Who Will Run in 2028? Seven Potential Democratic Candidates - Newsweek

Wes Moore, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttgieg.

Harris Concession Speech: Who Will Be America's First Woman President? - Newsweek

Michelle Obama, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Cori Bush Says She Wants to See Arms Embargo Placed on Israel, Regrets Not Running for President

Cori Bush stated she should have run as well. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 17:52, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Any yes to my recommendations? 50.91.26.176 (talk) 03:23, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

Newsweek is marginally reliable per WP:NEWSWEEK. Honestly, I don't see why the article is currently using Newsweek without a discussion. --Super Goku V (talk) 09:47, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

That is because it is post-2013 when pre-2013 is the one you want to avoid. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez IS one of the potential candidates. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 17:22, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

Not true. Newsweek was acquired by IBT Media in 2013 and it has not returned to the quality that it once had since then. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 22:46, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

For some reason, this article uses Newsweek. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 23:21, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

For some reason indeed, hence my "I don't see why the article is currently using Newsweek without a discussion." Thankfully, this issue has been resolved. --Super Goku V (talk) 09:32, 12 November 2024 (UTC)

What does that mean when issues has been resolved. Did they remove Newsweek.  50.91.26.176 (talk) 05:05, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

Add Jimmy Carter running for a second term 67.0.238.151 (talk) 19:58, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

That's laughable. You can't be serious. David O. Johnson (talk) 20:12, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

I agree with @David O. Johnson because Jimmy Carter might not make it since he IS 100 YEARS OLD. Even if it is impressive, he is not going to run again. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 20:15, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

Lara Trump and Donald Trump Jr for Republicans

Might be worth adding them as i have heard rumors they are considering running 71.241.134.156 (talk) 01:01, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

Have any sources? David O. Johnson (talk) 03:17, 11 November 2024 (UTC)

AOC 2028

Don’t know if Slate counts as a “reliable source” but just to start this conversation: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/11/2028-democrats-presidential-primary-election-aoc-ocasio-cortez.html Exietee66 (talk) 13:35, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

Slate is a reliable source at WP:RSP, but this article appears to argue that she should run, not that she will. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 14:24, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

What @ElijahPepe meant that EVEN if slate has her name potential for 2028. The article CANNOT be argue that she should be, it has to be shown that she could have the potential. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 02:21, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

You know, I still think it is also good sources at the same time. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 15:28, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Joe Manchin

@Reywas92 and RickStrate2029: As per the criteria, Manchin should technically not qualify as no sources have discussed him being a potential candidate; the CNN reference in the last sentence does not even mention him running for president at all. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 06:14, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Even the Fox News ref doesn't support Manchin's inclusion; at around 5:30 of the the interview, he says "I don't have any desire to be in administration."David O. Johnson (talk) 06:29, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Fox News is not allowed to be used as sources. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 15:27, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Wikipedia:Reliable sources/Perennial sources - Wikipedia

ctrl F and then type in Fox News. 50.91.26.176 (talk) 15:31, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

For better navigation, the link your probably looking for is WP:FOXNEWSPOLITICS. — BerryForPerpetuity (talk) 17:23, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks! 50.91.26.176 (talk) 05:31, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Fox News may be used here because this is a primary source of Manchin that happens to be on Fox News. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 15:22, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

That's true, I'll bring back the independents' section than RickStrate2029 (talk) 01:50, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

It still needs to be *two* sources that should be specifically about the 2028 presidential election. The Fox interview does not point to that, so I don't understand why you think this needs to be here. Reywas92^Talk 17:09, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Agreed, aA generic openness to running for office again does not make a likely 2028 candidate. This guy, who will be 81, jerked everyone around this year, don't put him in the article without something specific. That's only one source anyway. Reywas92^Talk 14:35, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for the input, I've now improved the section with better sources, and given specific explanations in the editing why they qualify in this case. Feel free to add more potential candidates to the independent section though. RickStrate2029 (talk) 21:01, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

You still have no sources specifically saying he is considering running for president in 2028. Vague nonsense that he wants to stay active or could run for something is not adequate here, it's the kind of synthesis and speculation we have to avoid. Reywas92^Talk 21:13, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

We're currently building a page of "potential candidates", if he said he was considering running for President he'd be in the "publicly expressed interest" section. Like it or not, we're four years out and running entirely on speculation.

To prevent any edit warring though, I won't undo your revert until we have additional perspectives on how we should develop the independents section. RickStrate2029 (talk) 21:17, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

And we should have good, in-depth speculation specifically about this particular election, not merely hazy insinuations that one hasn't retired from politics completely. I'm sure there will be many more folks participating in the invisible primary over the next few years, and we should focus on what's most talked about rather than being overly broad to be unhelpful. Reywas92^Talk 21:29, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

I will leave Manchin out of the potential candidates section until better information comes out about his intentions for 2028. In the meantime though, other potential candidates should be added to the independents section. RickStrate2029 (talk) 22:38, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

It's too vague to mean anything. I agree with Reywas; we need more substantive sourcing for a potential run. David O. Johnson (talk) 21:49, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

Map name

Asking here because it's more likely to get a response:

Currently, Electoral College maps are named as ElectoralCollegeXXXX.svg, eg w:File:ElectoralCollege2008.svg. However, for the 2028 map this name is already taken by this image:

So instead I've used w:File:Electoral College 2028.svg, but this isn't great for consistency (e.g. w:File:Electoral College 2008.svg is not a file). So my question is should anything be done, and if so, what? DimensionalFusion (talk · she/her) 12:02, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

You can overwrite that image with another one, reupload it. It isn't used anywhere. Reywas92^Talk 14:44, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Reywas92 I've moved the file (instead of overwriting it), but there's still a redirect DimensionalFusion (talk · she/her) 09:33, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

I have taken a look and it seems like this was resolved by replacing the redirect, correct? --Super Goku V (talk) 02:00, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

Newsweek

I removed a segment sourced to Newsweek. Per WP:NEWSWEEK, the site tends to prefer sensationalist headlines and claims over true fact-checking. Other claims cited to Newsweek should probably be removed if not reported by any other source, especially considering such a contentious topic. 🐔 Chicdat  ^{Bawk to me!} 12:50, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Include betting markets?

If we're including opinion polls, should we also include the current odds implied by political betting markets (Kalshi Democratic nominee, Republican nominee, and so on)? Especially since there have been a lot of assertions that prediction markets are more accurate than opinion polls. ypn^2 19:10, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

No. Betting markets are not based on the population and can be influenced, e.g. the Trump whale. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 02:09, 20 November 2024 (UTC)

Including potential candidates

Currently, it appears as though there is a divergence in what is considered a "potential" candidate. The definition that closely aligns with Wikipedia's policies is a candidate who has received sustained, non-trivial coverage. The standard for that as it applies here is two separate references that discuss the candidate in detail. Gavin Newsom clearly qualifies, as does Kamala Harris and JD Vance. The second definition is any candidate who has received a measure of discussion, such as Pete Buttigieg and Wes Moore. It appears as though editors—many of them through IP addresses—have sought to include potential candidates on the basis that their name appears repeatedly in sources. I was recently source-gathering the other day when I found a video that seems to describe this, in which NBC News reporter Allan Smith says that there are numerous Democrats vying for the nomination—nearly two dozen, according to his article. I am proposing that new candidates be discussed from here on out. elijahpepe@wikipedia (he/him) 02:09, 20 November 2024 (UTC)

This was the main issue I had with the article, but it has improved since the start of the AfD. I will agree that a restriction on inclusion without a discussion is a good idea. --Super Goku V (talk) 07:01, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

First election since 1976 in which Biden, Bush, Clinton or Trump will not appear on the major party's ticket.

This is a premature assumption that should be removed. JFM01 (talk) 17:07, 20 November 2024 (UTC)

Agree, I've removed it. OZOO (t) (c) 17:29, 20 November 2024 (UTC)