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Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements

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March on Washington for Gaza in January 2024

As part of the Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States, protest vote movements in the 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries were initiated to target President Joe Biden's and Vice President Kamala Harris's reelection campaigns. After a notable "uncommitted" vote in Michigan, activists sought to replicate the protest in other states. While some activists under Abandon Biden/Abandon Harris argued against supporting the Democratic ticket entirely during the 2024 presidential election, others in uncommitted movements led by the Uncommitted National Movement urged to use uncommitted votes during the presidential primary to pressure the Biden administration to change policies before the presidential election. Both groups overlap and supported each other's goals, to the point of being considered "twin" movements. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election and endorsed Harris as his replacement.

The movements were the main opposition to the Biden 2024 presidential campaign and received higher vote totals than many contenders in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, including Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, and Beto O'Rourke. Uncommitted votes also achieved a higher percentage of the vote than the 2020 campaign of Pete Buttigieg, with only a fraction of the spending. The Uncommitted campaign won 36 delegates in the primaries. The Uncommitted movement received its best results in the Hawaii caucus and the Minnesota primary. Following the Minnesota primary, Minnesota governor Tim Walz was sympathetic to the Uncommitted movement, saying: "These folks are asking for a change in course... They're asking for more pressure to be put on. ... People are frustrated, but it bodes well for me that they’re actively engaged to go out and cast his vote and ask for change." After Biden's withdrawal from the race, the movement demanded Harris, the 2024 presumptive Democratic nominee, "to take a clear stance against weapons for Israel's war and occupation against Palestinians". Harris selected Walz as her running mate on August 6, 2024. By October, Uncommited encouraged its supporters to vote for Harris, arguing a second Trump presidency would be worse for Palestinians.[1] On the contrary, Abandon Harris endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein.[2]

Ceasefire movement

On January 18, 2024, voters promoting a ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas war launched a write-in campaign for "ceasefire" in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.[3] Since incumbent president Joe Biden had declined to appear on the ballot due to Democratic National Convention sanctions, with allies instead mounting a write-in campaign, advocates of the ceasefire campaign hoped that the increased focus on the write-in section of election results would send a message.[4][better source needed] New Hampshire secretary of state David Scanlan indicated that these "ceasefire" votes were tallied.[5] Ultimately, "Ceasefire" received 1,497 votes, or 1.28%.[6]

Uncommitted movements

Main article: Uncommitted National Movement
See also: Uncommitted (voting option) § Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington, 2024

The uncommitted movements are protest vote movements built around urging voters to write-in or check an uncommitted voting option to protest Biden's support for the Israel-Gaza war, and to push for a permanent ceasefire and ending military aide to Israel.[7] The movements aims to "make these changes ahead of the general election or risk losing Democratic voter support".[7]

2024 Michigan Democratic Primary

See also: 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary § Campaign for "uncommitted"

A movement for an uncommitted vote called Listen To Michigan was started by community organizers in Dearborn, including the younger sister to representative Rashida Tlaib with a budget of $250,000.[8] The group aimed to use the uncommitted vote during the presidential primary to send a message to the Biden campaign to support a ceasefire, or else lose the presidential election.[9][10][8][11] Both Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn mayor Abdullah Hammoud endorsed the campaign.[12] Democratic Majority for Israel ran opposition ads against the uncommitted movement, arguing that a vote for uncommitted would represent support for Trump.[13] Our Revolution endorsed the uncommitted movement and also helped support outreach for it.[14]

The movement was primarily led by a vocal minority of Muslim Americans,[15] Arab Americans, and progressives.[9][10] Though the campaign aimed originally for 10,000 votes, which was the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in the 2016 election, which was considered a low vote total historically,[16] the final vote count exceeded it and reach 101,000 votes, or approximately 13.2% of the vote.[17] As a result, the campaign won 2 delegates to send to the 2024 Democratic National Convention.[18] While some progressive commentators, such as Michael Moore, stated that Biden's actions in Gaza could ultimately lose him the general election,[19][20][21] others, including Biden campaign officials, argued that the result matches similar uncommitted movements in 2012 and 2008 in Michigan.[22][23] In March 2024, Listen to Michigan announced it was expanding into a national operation.[24]

Abandon Biden movement

See also: Joe Biden 2024 presidential campaign § Arab and Muslim Americans
Pro-Palestinian protest in Washington, D.C.

Abandon Biden was originally started in Minnesota but has since spread to other swing states, with the goal of preventing a second-term Biden presidency.[9][10][25] Many in the Abandon Biden movement have argued that Biden cannot undo damages, even if he called for a ceasefire[12] and some within the movement have argued even for voting for Republicans in order to deny Biden a victory and to force both parties to pay attention to their cause,[26][27][28] though others say they will never vote for Trump and would instead write a third-party candidate or abstain.[9][29] The Abandon Biden and Uncommitted campaigns were described as “twin movements” which were overlapping.[30][29]

Trump has notably suggested total war in Gaza, deporting refugees from Gaza, revoking visas of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, and reinstituting a "Muslim ban", which many Democrats have argued would allow them to win Muslim votes.[25] In addition, though Biden won many swing states by small margins, the Muslim American and Arab American proportion in most of those states constitutes a very small proportion of the electorate.[31][32] However, some commentators argued that small margins of victory in swing states may suggest that the groups could have outsized effects.[10][31] Michigan is noted as among the swing states with more than 200,000 Muslim voters, and 300,000 Arab Americans, well exceeding Biden's vote margin in 2020, and some have pointed out that disapproval with the conflict could be spreading to other groups such as youth and progressives.[17] An opinion video piece argued in the aftermath of Biden's first debate and subsequent calls to withdraw from the race that Biden's biggest issue was still engagement from Arab and Muslim voters in swing states such as Michigan.[33]

2024 presidential primaries

Primary Elections

See also: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

After the Michigan result, organizers in several states launched similar campaigns.[14][7] However, most states do not have a dedicated "uncommitted" option, which can make organizing a protest vote more difficult.[14] Minnesota organizers launched a protest vote movement for "uncommitted" with only four days before the primary.[34] The movement was able to improve on Michigan's vote share,[35] winning over 18% of the vote and 11 delegates.[36][7][37] After the 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary Minnesota Governor Tim Walz took a sympathetic view toward those doing so to protest President Biden's handling of the war in Gaza, calling them "civically engaged".[38] Walz also said said: "This issue is a humanitarian crisis. They have every right to be heard... These folks are asking for a change in course, they're asking for more pressure to be put on… You can hold competing things: that Israel has the right to defend itself, and the atrocities of October 7 are unacceptable, but Palestinian civilians being caught in this… has got to end." Walz also said he supports a ceasefire in Gaza.[39]

In North Carolina, where no actual candidates made the ballot other than Biden, 12% voted for "no preference," which some sources attributed to groups protesting Biden's support for Israel.[40][41] Multiple sources observed that though the movement had "spread to other base Democratic voters" besides Muslim Americans,[35][36] results from Super Tuesday suggested the Democratic Party "continues to coalesce around Biden."[35] A Black Muslim group called the Black Muslim Leadership Council has worked towards supporting the uncommitted movement, but have argued they would not necessarily abandon Biden during the presidential election.[42]

In the Hawaii, the uncommitted vote achieved 455 votes, or nearly 29% of the vote total, which net the movement 6 delegates.[43] This occurred despite that Hawaii did not appear to have any specific organized uncommitted movement organization.[44] In Georgia, a coalition of multi-ethnic, multi-faith progressives launched a Listen to Georgia Coalition to replicate a similar protest movement.[45] Because Georgia does not release write-in candidate results, a local news organization looked at blank ballots instead, finding 3% of Democratic primary voters had submitted blank ballots within 5 counties.[46] An effort was organized in Washington,[47] where uncommitted achieved slightly over 9% of the vote.[48] In Kentucky, some of the 17.9% uncommitted vote was attributed to the protest vote movement.[49] Rhode Island sent at least 1 uncommitted delegate.[50] A "Vote No Preference" coalition in Massachusetts focused on pushing a No Preference vote.[51][52] A similar effort had been replicated in Connecticut,[53] Pennsylvania,[25][54] New Jersey,[55] and other states.[56] However, few races after Super Tuesday have dedicated uncommitted options, and those which did not had few progressive, Muslim, or Arab American votes.[47]

Delegate votes

After Biden released delegates, following his decision to withdraw from the race, some uncommitted delegates held endorsements for Harris unless demands for a ceasefire were met.[57][58]

Impact

Some argued that as a result of the uncommitted movement, Kamala Harris began calling for a 6-week ceasefire in the region.[7][32] Because the uncommitted option receives varied votes in each state during the primary, analysts find it "hard to compare apples-to-apples" the impact of the movement, especially with regards to past historical uncommitted vote results.[7][56][59] Although Biden supporters and some analysts generally suggest that the uncommitted vote is similar to historical patterns, some progressives, including Ro Khanna argue that the pattern of the vote suggests "particular groups of our coalition that are upset."[56] Some uncommitted results in states with historic Blue Dog Democrat populations (i.e. North Carolina, Kentucky) are believed to be attributed to conservative “DINOs” (i.e. Democrats in Name Only) who vote uncommitted during the primary but had become Republican and would never vote Democrat during a general election anyways.[60][61] Some analysts argue that as the groups who voted uncommitted were in Biden's base, they would eventually vote for him in the general election, though the possibility of his base fracturing before the election remains.[62]

Much of the uncommitted base seemed to be made up of young college students and Arab Americans.[62] Young people, the group most likely to support Palestinians, did not appear to have the Israel-Gaza war as their main concern in many opinion polls.[63] By May 2024, several progressive groups critical of Biden's Gaza policy began anti-Trump campaigns that were noted to indirectly help Biden. The New York Times said it was "one of the clearest signs yet that at least some of Mr. Biden's critics on the left will still work to stop Mr. Trump — even if they are lukewarm on the incumbent president."[64] On October 8, Uncommitted encouraged its supporters to vote for Harris, arguing a second Trump presidency would be much worse for Palestinians.[1]

The uncommitted vote revealed a vulnerability amongst young voters caused by Biden's policy on Israel and Palestine. The movement received higher vote totals than many contenders in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, including Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, and Biden's vice president Kamala Harris. Uncommitted votes also achieved a higher percentage of the vote than the 2020 campaign of Pete Buttigieg, with only a fraction of the spending. The Uncommitted campaign won 36 delegates in the primaries. On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election. A former New Jersey state representative said the vote "shows what many have been saying, that [there] is significant dissatisfaction with President Biden’s approach to Gaza. This is a constituency Democratic Party leadership and the Biden administration must engage."[65]

Withdrawal of Joe Biden

On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Biden was the first incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 to withdraw from the race, the first since the 19th century to withdraw after serving only one term,[a] and the first ever to withdraw after already winning the primaries.[66][68] Following Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the movement demanded Harris, who had become the presumptive Democratic nominee, "to take a clear stance against weapons for Israel’s war and occupation against Palestinians".[69] Some uncommitted voters who had been disenchanted by Biden are noted to be "watching Harris closely to see how she distinguishes herself from Biden on the issue".[70] On August 6, Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.[71][72]

2024 presidential election

During the 2024 United States presidential election, An August 2024 survey published by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that 29% of Muslim voters planned to vote for the Greens candidate Jill Stein because of the Gaza War.[73] In Michigan, 40 percent of Muslim voters supported Stein, 18% supported Trump and 12% supported Harris.[74] CAIR's final election poll, published on November 1, showed that nationwide among Muslims, 42.3% planned to vote for Stein, 41% for Harris, and 9.8% for Trump.[75] The Stein ticket garnered 650,757 votes, the second highest of her three campaigns, beating her 2012 run but falling short of her 2016 bid.[76][77] This was the first election since 2000 where the Green Party placed third place in the popular vote. Stein also won 22% of Dearborn, Michigan, coming in third place behind Harris, who won 28%, and Trump, who won 47%.[78]

Results by state

Primary Primary winner Votes Percentage of popular vote Uncommitted delegates Reference
Nevada Democratic primary Joe Biden 7,448 5.81% 0 [79]
Michigan Democratic primary 101,436 13.21% 2 [80]
Alabama Democratic primary 11,213 6% 0 [81]
Colorado Democratic primary 43,439 8.1% 0 [82]
Massachusetts Democratic primary 58,462 9.4% 1 [83]
Minnesota Democratic primary 45,913 18.9% 11 [84]
North Carolina Democratic primary 88,021 12.7% 0 [85]
Tennessee Democratic primary 10,464 7.9% 0 [86]
Hawaii Democratic caucuses 455 29.1% 7 [87]
Democrats Abroad primary 1,136 13.2% 0 [88]
Washington Democratic primary 89,753 9.8% 2 [89]
Kansas Democratic primary 4,286 10.3% 0 [90]
Missouri Democratic primary 2,229 11.7% 3 [91]
Connecticut Democratic primary 7,492 11.5% 0 [92]
Rhode Island Democratic primary 3,732 14.9% 1 [93]
Wisconsin Democratic primary 48,162 8.3% 0 [94]
Maryland Democratic primary 63,743 9.7% 0 [95]
Kentucky Democratic primary 32,908 17.9% 8 [96]
New Jersey Democratic primary 43,758 8.9% 1 [97]
Final results Uncommitted National Movement 706,591 4.25% 37

See also

Notes

  1. ^ All three incumbents in the 20th century to withdraw or not seek reelection—Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson—had succeeded to the presidency when their predecessor died, then won a second term in their own right.[66] Three presidents in the 1800s made and kept pledges to serve only one term, most recently Rutherford B. Hayes.[67]

References

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