Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

National poll results

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2024

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Lib Dems	Green	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size						Others	Lead
6–7 Nov	Techne	N/A	GB	1,636	29%	25%	18%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	4
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
30 Oct – 1 Nov	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,007	28%	26%	18%	14%	8%	5% SNP on 3% Other on 3%	2
30–31 Oct	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,548	31%	24%	20%	10%	10%	5% SNP on 2% Plaid Cymru on 0% Other on 3%	7
30–31 Oct	BMG Research	The i	GB	1,511	28%	29%	17%	13%	8%	TBC	1
30–31 Oct	Techne	N/A	GB	1,632	30%	24%	18%	14%	7%	7% SNP on 2% Other on 5%	6
23–24 Oct	Techne	N/A	GB	1,644	29%	24%	19%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	5
16–18 Oct	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,565	31%	24%	20%	12%	8%	5% SNP on 2% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%	7
16–17 Oct	Techne	N/A	GB	1,636	28%	25%	19%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	3
11–13 Oct	JL Partners	The Telegraph	GB	2,000	29%	25%	19%	14%	7%	5% SNP on 2% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%	4
9–10 Oct	Techne	N/A	GB	1,651	29%	24%	19%	12%	7%	9% SNP on 2% Other on 7%	5
9–10 Oct	More in Common	The Times	GB	2,000	27%	27%	21%	13%	7%	5% SNP on 2% Other on 3%	Tie
5–7 Oct	More in Common	Politico	GB	2,023	29%	28%	19%	11%	7%	5% SNP on 2% Other on 3%	1
4–7 Oct	Deltapoll	N/A	GB	2,108	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%	6% SNP on 4% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 1%	4
2–4 Oct	Opinium	The Observer	GB	1,491	31%	24%	20%	11%	8%	5% SNP on 3% Other on 2%	7
2–3 Oct	BMG Research	i	GB	1,562	30%	25%	20%	13%	7%	4% SNP on 3% Plaid Cymru on 0% Other on 1%	5
2–3 Oct	Techne	N/A	GB	1,643	31%	23%	18%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	8
25–26 Sep	Techne	N/A	GB	1,638	32%	22%	18%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	10
24–25 Sep	More in Common	N/A	GB	2,080	30%	26%	18%	13%	8%	6% SNP on 3% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%	4
18–19 Sep	Techne	The Independent	GB	1,641	33%	21%	18%	13%	7%	8% SNP on 2% Other on 6%	12
10–12 Sep	More in Common	Politico	GB	1,542	29%	25%	18%	14%	8%	8% SNP on 3% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 4%	4
29 Aug	BMG Research	i	GB	1,560	30%	26%	19%	12%	8%	6% SNP on 3% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%	4
7–8 Aug	We Think	N/A	GB	1,278	33%	20%	21%	11%	8%	8% SNP on 3% Independents on 3% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 1%	12
5–7 Aug	BMG Research	i	GB	1,523	33%	24%	18%	12%	8%	4%	9
30 Jul – 5 Aug	Stonehaven	N/A	GB	2,048	34%	22%	17%	12%	9%	6%	12
25–26 Jul	We Think	N/A	GB	2,012	36%	22%	17%	11%	7%	7% Independents on 3% SNP on 2% Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 1%	14
11–12 Jul	We Think	N/A	GB	2,005	39%	20%	16%	11%	9%	5%	19
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election	–	UK	–	33.7%	23.7%	14.3%	12.2%	6.8%	9.3%	10.0
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election	–	GB	–	34.7%	24.4%	14.7%	12.5%	6.9%	6.8%	10.3

Seat projections

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Area	Lab	Con	Lib Dems	SNP	Reform	Green	Plaid Cymru	Others	Majority
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Area								Others	Majority
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	UK	411	121	72	9	5	4	4	23 Sinn Féin: 7 Independents: 6 DUP: 5 SDLP: 2 Alliance: 1 UUP: 1 TUV: 1 Speaker: 1	Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Sinn Féin	DUP	Alliance	UUP	SDLP	TUV	Others	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size							Others	Lead
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election^[1]		–	27.0%	22.1%	15.0%	12.2%	11.1%	6.2%	6.4%	4.9

Scotland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	SNP	Con	Lib Dems	Reform	Green	Others	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size							Others	Lead
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,013	23%	30%	15%	10%	14%	6%	2%	7
10–13 Sep 2024	Survation	Progress Scotland	2,059	31%	31%	14%	9%	11%	3%	1%	Tie
5–11 Sep 2024	Opinium	The Sunday Times	1,028	25%	32%	14%	8%	11%	7%	2%	7
20–22 Aug 2024	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,011	32%	29%	12%	8%	12%	5%	2%	3
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election		–	35.3%	30.0%	12.7%	9.7%	7.0%	3.8%	1.6%	5.3

Wales

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Reform	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Green	Others	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size							Others	Lead
4 Jul 2024	2024 general election^[2]		–	37.0%	18.2%	16.9%	14.8%	6.5%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8

Approval polling

Leadership approval

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Kemi Badenoch			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer			Rishi Sunak			Nigel Farage			Ed Davey			Carla Denyer			Adrian Ramsay

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
30–31 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,016	26%	50%	–24	23%	45%	–22	28%	40%	–12	23%	19%	+4	–			–
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	30%	48%	–17	28%	49%	–21	31%	46%	–14	22%	28%	-5	15%	20%	-5	13%	20%	-7
16–18 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,007	21%	53%	–32	20%	45%	–25	25%	39%	–14	22%	20%	+2	–			–
9–10 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,073	18%	56%	–38	18%	49%	–31	–			–			–			–
5–7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,023	21%	54%	–33	19%	51%	–32	–			–			–			–
4–7 Oct 2024	Deltapoll	2,108	30%	61%	–31	27%	65%	–38	–			–			–			–
4–6 Oct 2024	YouGov	2,121	27%	63%	–36	24%	66%	–42	28%	63%	–35	25%	32%	–7	–			–
2–4 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,055	24%	52%	–28	18%	47%	–29	26%	42%	–16	21%	21%	-	–			–
2–3 Oct 2024	BMG Research	1,562	25%	50%	–25	23%	41%	–18	29%	32%	–4	21%	20%	+1	–			–
25–27 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,003	23%	53%	–30	20%	46%	–26	29%	40%	–11	22%	23%	–1	–			–
24–25 Sep 2024	More In Common	2,080	21%	48%	–27	17%	52%	–35	–			–			–			–
20–22 Sep 2024	YouGov	2,137	30%	60%	–30	24%	68%	–44	28%	63%	–35	27%	36%	–9	–			–
18–20 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,050	24%	50%	–26	21%	46%	–25	27%	39%	–12	24%	21%	+3	–			–
9 Sep 2024	More In Common	2,024	25%	45%	–20	–			–			–			–			–
29 Aug 2024	BMG Research	1,560	28%	44%	–16	22%	46%	–24	28%	37%	–9	19%	21%	–2	–			–
24–27 Aug 2024	More In Common	2,015	27%	43%	–16	17%	58%	–41	–			–			–			–
14–16 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,000	32%	38%	–6	20%	50%	–30	24%	43%	–19	21%	21%	-	–			–
7–8 Aug 2024	We Think	1,278	33%	42%	–9	22%	57%	–35	29%	44%	–15	18%	36%	–18	14%	28%	–14	10%	26%	–16
5–7 Aug 2024	BMG Research	1,523	30%	33%	–3	19%	42%	–23	23%	37%	–14	21%	16%	+5	–			–
5–6 Aug 2024	YouGov	2,163	37%	53%	–16	23%	71%	–48	25%	67%	–42	–			–			–
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,063	35%	32%	+3	18%	48%	–30	25%	40%	–15	24%	19%	+5	19%	17%	+2	19%	17%	+2
30–31 Jul 2024	YouGov	2,233	40%	49%	–9	23%	70%	–47	27%	62%	–35	27%	33%	–6	9%	12%	–3	3%	10%	–7
25–26 Jul 2024	We Think	2,012	42%	37%	+5	25%	61%	–36	30%	50%	–20	21%	36%	–15	16%	34%	–18	12%	32%	–20
17–19 Jul 2024	Opinium	2,010	38%	20%	+18	20%	42%	–22	–			25%	18%	+7	21%	15%	+6	21%	15%	+6
8–14 Jul 2024	Morning Consult	–	45%	25%	+20	–			–			–			–			–
11–12 Jul 2024	We Think	2,005	38%	15%	+23	21%	31%	–10	–			–			–			–
5–8 Jul 2024	YouGov^[3]	2,102	44%	47%	–3	23%	70%	–47	27%	65%	–38	34%	29%	+5	13%	16%	–3	7%	14%	–7
5–6 Jul 2024	Ipsos^[4]	1,141	40%	33%	+7	21%	57%	–36	26%	52%	–26	29%	26%	+3	–			–

Party approval

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Labour			Conservative			Reform			Lib Dems			Green

			Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net	Pos.	Neg.	Net
2 Nov	Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9-10 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,072	24%	51%	–27	15%	52%	–36	–			–			–
5-7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,015	24%	51%	–27	15%	53%	–38	–			–			–
5-7 Oct 2024	More In Common	2,082	24%	51%	–27	15%	53%	–38	–			–			–
20–22 Sep 2024	YouGov	2,132	32%	59%	–27	24%	67%	–43	26%	62%	–36	37%	45%	–8	40%	42%	–2
24–27 Aug 2024	More In Common	2,015	25%	45%	–20	15%	57%	–42	–			–			–
5–6 Aug 2024	YouGov	2,163	39%	53%	–14	23%	70%	–47	–			–			–
5–8 Jul 2024	YouGov^[3]	2,102	47%	46%	+1	21%	72%	–51	28%	62%	–34	45%	37%	+8	46%	38%	+8
5–6 Jul 2024	Ipsos^[4]	1,141	40%	34%	+6	20%	59%	–39	25%	51%	–26	29%	28%	+1	33%	28%	+6

Preferred prime minister

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Kemi Badenoch	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Carla Denyer	Adrian Ramsay	None	Don't know	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size							None	Don't know	Lead
30–31 Oct 2024	YouGov	2,234	27%	20%	–	–	–	–	47%	6%	7
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	41%	23%	–	–	–	–	35%	–	18
Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size	Keir Starmer	Rishi Sunak	Nigel Farage	Ed Davey	Carla Denyer	Adrian Ramsay	None	Don't know	Lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Sample size							None	Don't know	Lead
18–20 Oct 2024	Savanta	2,135	39%	32%	–	–	–	–	45%	11%	7
2–4 Oct 2024	Opinium	2,003	25%	19%	–	–	–	–	45%	–	6
25–27 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,049	27%	18%	–	–	–	–	46%	10%	9
18–20 Sep 2024	Opinium	2,050	28%	18%	–	–	–	–	44%	10%	10
28–30 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,040	34%	15%	–	–	–	–	40%	11%	19
14–16 Aug 2024	Opinium	1,996	36%	16%	–	–	–	–	37%	12%	20
7–8 Aug 2024	We Think	1,278	26%	10%	20%	5%	2%	2%	20%	15%	6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024	Opinium	2,063	38%	14%	–	–	–	–	37%	11%	24
25–26 Jul 2024	We Think	2,012	30%	11%	18%	4%	3%	1%	18%	15%	12
17–19 Jul 2024	Opinium	2,010	37%	14%	–	–	–	–	34%	15%	23
11–12 Jul 2024	We Think	2,005	30%	11%	14%	5%	4%	1%	20%	13%	16

Other polling

Hypothetical polling

Different Conservative Party leaders

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Implied Conservative leader		Lab	Con	Lib Dems	SNP	Reform	Green	Plaid Cymru	Others	Majority / lead
Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Implied Conservative leader									Others	Majority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024	Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)	Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick	GB	6,289	Kemi Badenoch	Seats	332	151	63	48	25	4	4	5	Lab 14
					Kemi Badenoch	Vote share	29%	22%	12%	4%	21%	10%	1%	1%	7
					Robert Jenrick	Seats	311	178	58	48	24	4	4	5	Hung (Labour 15 short)
					Robert Jenrick	Vote share	28%	23%	12%	4%	20%	11%	1%	1%	5

Notes

References

^ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
^ ^a ^b Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
^ ^a ^b "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.

[1] "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.

[2] "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.

[yougov1-3] Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.

[ipsos1-4] "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]