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2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

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2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
← 2019 4 July 2024 Next →
All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
Turnout56.0% Decrease10.6%
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth Ed Davey
Leader Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth Ed Davey
Party Labour Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 4 April 2020 16 June 2023 27 August 2020
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 4 seats, 9.9% 0 seats, 6.0%
Seats before 21 3 0
Seats won 27 4 1
Seat change Increase9‡ Increase2‡ Increase1‡
Popular vote 487,636 194,812 85,911
Percentage 37.0% 14.8% 6.5%
Swing Decrease3.9% Increase4.9% Increase0.5%
Results by constituency
  • ‡ owing to electoral boundaries changing, this figure is notional

The 2024 general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats made gains, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2005.

Election

[edit]

Date of the election

[edit]

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

[edit]
Welsh constituencies used in the election, labelled.

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, mandated the number of seats in Wales be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coterminous with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales was responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it was required to abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]

Constituencies

[edit]

Members not standing for re-election

[edit]
MP Consti­tuency First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[7]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[8]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[9]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour 1 February 2024[10]
Kevin Brennan Cardiff West 2001 Labour 27 May 2024[11]
Geraint Davies Swansea West 1997[a] Labour[b] 28 May 2024[12]
Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 Plaid Cymru[c] 28 May 2024[13]
Jamie Wallis Bridgend 2019 Conservative 22 October 2023[14]
Beth Winter Cynon Valley[d] 2019 Labour 7 June 2023[15]

Candidates

[edit]

2024 United Kingdom general election
(4 July)
Parties
Campaign
Overview by country
Outcome
Related
← 2019 2024 Next →
Affiliation Candidates[16]
Conservative Party 32
Green Party of England and Wales 32
Labour Party 32
Liberal Democrats 32
Plaid Cymru 32
Reform UK 31
Independents 17 (15 constituencies)
Heritage Party 6
Workers Party of Britain 4
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 3
Co-operative Party 3[17]
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 2
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 2
Women's Equality Party 2
Climate Party 1
Communist Party of Britain 1
Libertarian Party (UK) 1
Propel 1
Socialist Labour Party (UK) 1
True and Fair Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Total 235

Results

[edit]

By affiliation

[edit]
Affiliation[18] Candidates Seats Aggregate votes
Total Gains Losses Net Of all (%) Total Of all (%) Differ­ence
Labour 32 27 +8 0 Increase  9 64.1 487,636 37.5 Decrease  3.9
Conservative 32 0 0 −12 Decrease 12 0.0 240,003 18.2 Decrease 17.9
Reform UK 31 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 223,018 16.9 Increase 11.5
Plaid Cymru 32 4 +2 0 Increase  2 12.5 194,811 14.8 Increase  4.9
Liberal Democrats 32 1 +1 0 Increase  1 3.1 85,911 6.5 Increase  0.5
Green 32 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 61,662 4.7 Increase  3.7
Independent 17 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 17,593 1.3 Increase  0.9
Workers Party 4 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 1,545 0.1 —
Abolish 3 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 1,521 0.1 —
Propel 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 1,041 0.1 —
Heritage 6 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 926 0.1 —
UKIP 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 600 0.0 —
Women's Equality 2 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 536 0.0 —
TUSC 2 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 532 0.0 —
Communist 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 521 0.0 —
Libertarian 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 439 0.0 —
Socialist Labour 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 424 0.0 —
Monster Raving Loony 2 0 0 0 Steady 0.0 393 0.0 Steady
True & Fair 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 255 0.0 —
Climate 1 0 Did not stand in 2019 0.0 104 0.0 —
Total 235 32 — Steady 1,319,076 56.0

By constituency

[edit]
This section is transcluded from Results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)
Constituency 2019
seat 		2024 seat Votes Turnout
Affiliate Candidate Votes Share Margin Lab. Con. Ref. PC Lib. Dems Green Other Total

Aberafan Maesteg Lab Lab Stephen Kinnock 17,838 49.9% 10,354 17,838 2,903 7,484 4,719 916 1,094 801 35,755 49.3%
Alyn and Deeside Lab Lab Mark Tami 18,395 42.4% 8,794 18,395 7,892 9,601 1,938 2,065 1,926 1,575 43,392 57.3%
Bangor Aberconwy Con Lab Claire Hughes 14,008 33.6% 4,896 14,008 9,036 6,091 9,112 1,524 1,361 528 41,660 60.0%
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Lab Lab Nick Smith 16,027 53.6% 12,183 16,027 3,776 — 3,844 1,268 1,719 3,288 29,922 43.0%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Con LD David Chadwick 13,736 29.5% 1,472 9,904 12,264 6,567 2,280 13,736 1,188 609 46,548 64.0%
Bridgend Con Lab Chris Elmore 16,516 39.9% 8,595 16,516 6,764 7,921 3,629 1,446 1,760 3,338 41,482 56.7%
Caerfyrddin Con PC Ann Davies 15,520 34.0% 4,505 10,985 8,825 6,944 15,520 1,461 1,371 498 45,604 62.0%
Caerphilly Lab Lab Chris Evans 14,538 38.0% 6,419 14,538 4,385 7,754 8,119 1,788 1,650 — 38,234 52.6%
Cardiff East Lab Lab Jo Stevens 15,833 40.5% 9,097 15,833 3,913 4,980 3,550 6,736 3,916 195 39,123 53.7%
Cardiff North Lab Lab Anna McMorrin 20,849 43.9% 11,207 20,849 9,642 5,985 4,669 3,168 3,160 — 47,473 66.5%
Cardiff South and Penarth Lab Lab Stephen Doughty 17,428 44.5% 11,767 17,428 5,459 4,493 3,227 2,908 5,661 — 39,176 54.0%
Cardiff West Lab Lab Alex Barros-Curtis 16,442 36.7% 7,019 16,442 6,835 5,626 9,423 1,921 3,157 1,353 44,757 59.3%
Ceredigion Preseli PC PC Ben Lake 21,738 46.9% 14,789 5,386 4,763 5,374 21,738 6,949 1,864 228 46,302 61.2%
Clwyd East Con Lab Becky Gittins 18,484 38.7% 4,622 18,484 13,862 7,626 3,733 1,859 1,659 599 47,822 62.4%
Clwyd North Con Lab Gill German 14,794 35.5% 1,196 14,794 13,598 7,000 3,159 1,685 1,391 — 41,627 55.5%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC PC Liz Saville Roberts 21,788 53.9% 15,876 5,912 4,712 4,857 21,788 1,381 1,448 297 40,395 55.3%
Gower Lab Lab Tonia Antoniazzi 20,480 43.4% 11,567 20,480 8,913 8,530 3,942 2,593 2,488 283 47,229 62.0%
Llanelli Lab Lab Nia Griffith 12,751 31.3% 1,504 12,751 4,275 11,247 9,511 1,254 1,106 600 40,744 57.0%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Lab Lab Gerald Jones 15,791 44.8% 7,447 15,791 2,687 8,344 4,768 1,276 1,231 1,118 35,215 47.3%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Con Lab Henry Tufnell 16,505 35.4% 1,878 16,505 14,627 7,828 2,962 2,372 1,654 681 46,629 59.2%
Monmouthshire Con Lab Catherine Fookes 21,010 41.3% 3,338 21,010 17,672 5,438 1,273 2,279 2,357 815 50,844 68.0%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Con Lab Steve Witherden 12,709 29.4% 3,815 12,709 7,775 8,894 5,667 6,470 1,744 — 43,259 58.4%
Neath and Swansea East Lab Lab Carolyn Harris 16,797 41.8% 6,627 16,797 3,765 10,170 5,350 2,344 1,711 — 40,137 52.5%
Newport East Lab Lab Jessica Morden 16,370 42.5% 9,009 16,370 6,487 7,361 2,239 2,045 2,092 1,937 38,531 50.0%
Newport West and Islwyn Lab Lab Ruth Jones 17,409 41.5% 8,868 17,409 6,710 8,541 3,529 2,087 2,078 1,597 41,951 55.4%
Pontypridd Lab Lab Alex Davies-Jones 16,225 41.2% 8,402 16,225 3,775 7,823 5,275 1,606 1,865 2,809 39,378 52.5%
Rhondda and Ogmore Lab Lab Chris Bryant 17,118 47.8% 7,790 17,118 2,050 9,328 5,198 935 1,177 — 35,806 48.1%
Swansea West Lab Lab Torsten Bell 14,761 41.4% 8,515 14,761 3,536 6,246 4,105 4,367 2,305 337 35,657 48.0%
Torfaen Lab Lab Nick Thomas-Symonds 15,176 42.5% 7,322 15,176 5,737 7,854 2,571 1,644 1,705 1,018 35,705 49.9%
Vale of Glamorgan Con Lab Kanishka Narayan 17,740 38.7% 4,216 17,740 13,524 6,973 3,245 1,612 1,881 851 45,826 61.6%
Wrexham Con Lab Andrew Ranger 15,836 39.2% 5,948 15,836 9,888 6,915 4,138 1,777 1,339 480 40,373 57.5%
Ynys Môn Con PC Llinos Medi 10,590 32.5% 637 7,619 9,953 3,223 10,590 439 604 200 32,628 61.4%
All constituencies 487,636 240,003 223,018 194,811 85,911 61,662 35,919 1,319,076 56.0%
37.0% 18.2% 16.9% 14.8% 6.5% 4.7% 2.7% 100.0%
Seats
27 0 0 4 1 0 0 32
84% 0% 0% 13% 3.2% 0% 0% 100.0%

By affiliate share

[edit]
Aggregate votes
Labour
 
 37%
Conservative
 
 18.2%
Reform UK
 
 16.9%
Plaid Cymru
 
 14.8%
Liberal Democrats
 
 6.5%
Greens
 
 4.7%
Seats
Labour
 
 84.375%
Plaid Cymru
 
 12.5%
Liberal Democrats
 
 3.125%

Candidates by constituency

[edit]
This section is transcluded from Results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election by constituency. (edit | history)

Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election.

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Reform UK Green Party Plaid Cymru Others Incumbent
Aberafan Maesteg Abigail Mainon Stephen Kinnock Justin Griffiths Mark Griffiths Nigel Hill Colin Deere
Labour Stephen Kinnock
(Aberavon)
Alyn and Deeside Jeremy Kent Mark Tami Richard Marbrow Vicky Roskams Karl Macnaughton Jack Morris Edwin Duggan (Independent) Labour Mark Tami
Bangor Aberconwy Robin Millar Claire Hughes Rachael Roberts John Clark Petra Haig Catrin Wager
Conservative Robin Millar
(Aberconwy)
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Hannah Jarvis Nick Smith Jackie Charlton Anne Baker Niamh Salkeld
Labour Nick Smith
(Blaenau Gwent)
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Fay Jones Matthew Dorrance David Chadwick Adam Hill Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal Emily Durrant-Munro
Conservative Fay Jones
(Brecon and Radnorshire)
Bridgend Anita Boateng Chris Elmore Claire Waller Caroline Jones Debra Cooper Iolo Caudy Mark John (Independent) Conservative Jamie Wallis
Labour Chris Elmore
(Ogmore)
Caerfyrddin Simon Hart Martha O'Neil Nick Beckett Bernard Holton Will Beasley Ann Davies
Independent (formerly Plaid Cymru) Jonathan Edwards
(Carmarthen East and Dinefwr)
Caerphilly Brandon Gorman Chris Evans[e] Steve Aicheler Joshua Kim Mark Thomas Lindsay Whittle[f] Labour Wayne David
Cardiff East Beatrice Brandon Jo Stevens Rodney Berman Lee Canning Sam Coates Cadewyn Skelley John Williams (TUSC) Labour Jo Stevens
(Cardiff Central)
Cardiff North Joel Williams Anna McMorrin Irfan Latif Lawrence Gwynn Meg Shepherd-Foster Malcolm Phillips Labour Anna McMorrin
Cardiff South and Penarth Ellis Smith Stephen Doughty Alex Wilson Simon Llewellyn Anthony Slaughter withdrew support from their nominated candidate Sharifah Rahman (nominated as Plaid Cymru) Labour Stephen Doughty
Cardiff West James Hamblin Alex Barros-Curtis Manda Rigby Peter Hopkins Jess Ryan Kiera Marshall
Labour Kevin Brennan
Ceredigion Preseli Aled Thomas Jackie Jones[g] Mark Williams[h] Karl Pollard Tomos Barlow Ben Lake Taghrid Al-Mawed (Workers) Plaid Cymru Ben Lake
(Ceredigion)
Clwyd East James Davies Becky Gittins Alec Dauncey Kirsty Walmsley Lee Lavery Paul Penlington Rob Roberts (Independent) Independent (formerly Conservative) Rob Roberts
(Delyn)
Clwyd North Darren Millar Gill German David Wilkins Jamie Orange Martyn Hogg Paul Rowlinson Conservative David Jones
(Clwyd West)
Conservative James Davies
(Vale of Clwyd)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Tomos Day Joanna Stallard Phoebe Jenkins Lucy Murphy Karl Drinkwater Liz Saville Roberts Joan Ginsberg (Heritage) Plaid Cymru Liz Saville Roberts
Plaid Cymru Hywel Williams
(Arfon)
Gower Marc Jenkins Tonia Antoniazzi Franck Banza Catrin Thomas Chris Evans Kieran Pritchard Wayne Erasmus (Independent) Labour Tonia Antoniazzi
Llanelli Charlie Evans Nia Griffith Chris Passmore Gareth Beer Karen Laurence Rhodri Davies Stan Robinson (UKIP) Labour Nia Griffith
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Amanda Jenner Gerald Jones Jade Smith Gareth Thomas David Griffin Francis Whitefoot
Labour Gerald Jones
(Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney)
Labour Beth Winter[i]
(Cynon Valley)
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb Henry Tufnell Alistair Cameron Stuart Marchant James Purchase Cris Tomos
Conservative Simon Hart
(Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire)
Conservative Stephen Crabb
(Preseli Pembrokeshire)
Monmouthshire David TC Davies Catherine Fookes William Powell Max Windsor-Peplow Ian Chandler Ioan Bellin
Conservative David TC Davies
(Monmouth)
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr withdrew support from their nominated candidate Steve Witherden Glyn Preston Oliver Lewis Jeremy Brignell-Thorp Elwyn Vaughan Craig Williams (nominated as Conservative) Conservative Craig Williams
(Montgomeryshire)
Conservative Simon Baynes[j]
(Clwyd South)
Neath and Swansea East Samantha Chohan Carolyn Harris[k] Helen Clarke Dai Richards Jan Dowden Andrew Jenkins Labour Christina Rees
(Neath)
Newport East Rachel Buckler Jessica Morden John Miller Tommy Short Lauren James Jonathan Clark
Labour Jessica Morden
Newport West and Islwyn Nick Jones Ruth Jones Mike Hamilton Paul Taylor Kerry Vosper Brandon Ham George Etheridge (Independent) Labour Chris Evans
(Islwyn)
Labour Ruth Jones
(Newport West)
Pontypridd Jack Robson Alex Davies-Jones David Mathias Steve Bayliss Angela Karadog Wil Rees
Labour Alex Davies-Jones
Rhondda and Ogmore Adam Robinson Chris Bryant Gerald Francis Darren James Christine Glossop Owen Cutler Labour Chris Bryant
(Rhondda)
Swansea West Tara-Jane Sutcliffe Torsten Bell Michael O'Carroll Patrick Benham-Crosswell Peter Jones Gwyn Williams Gareth Bromhall (TUSC) Independent (formerly Labour) Geraint Davies
Labour Carolyn Harris
(Swansea East)
Torfaen Nathan Edmunds Nick Thomas-Symonds Brendan Roberts Ian Williams Philip Davies Matthew Jones
Labour Nick Thomas-Symonds
Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns Kanishka Narayan Steven Rajam Toby Rhodes-Matthews Lynden Mack Ian Johnson
Conservative Alun Cairns
Wrexham Sarah Atherton Andrew Ranger Tim Sly Charles Dodman Tim Morgan Becca Martin Paul Ashton (Abolish) Conservative Sarah Atherton
Ynys Môn Virginia Crosbie Ieuan Môn Williams Leena Farhat Emmett Jenner Martin Schwaller Llinos Medi
Conservative Virginia Crosbie

Opinion polling

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election § Wales

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

[edit]
This section is transcluded from Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election. (edit | history)
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab. Con. Plaid Cymru Lib. Dems Ref. Green Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[19] – 37.0% 18.2% 14.8% 6.5% 16.9% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 40% 16% 14% 7% 16% 5% 2% 24
24–28 Jun 2024 More in Common N/A 848 42% 22% 9% 4% 14% 5% 4% 20
19–20 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 930 46% 15% 10% 7% 17% 4% 1% 29
14–18 Jun 2024 Savanta N/A 1,026 49% 19% 12% 5% 12% 3% - 30
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 45% 18% 11% 5% 18% 4% 0% 27
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 45% 18% 12% 5% 13% 4% 1% 27
22–27 May 2024 More in Common N/A 805 45% 21% 13% 4% 12% 3% 1% 24
22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 43% 19% 14% 3% 15% 6% 1% 24
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 840 40% 18% 14% 6% 18% 4% 0% 22
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 878 49% 16% 10% 5% 15% 5% 1% 33
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales[20]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 874 45% 22% 10% 5% 13% 5% 1% 23
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 48% 20% 10% 4% 12% 4% 1% 28
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,086 47% 22% 11% 6% 10% 2% 0% 25
4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,004 42% 20% 15% 7% 12% 3% 1% 22
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,100 44% 24% 13% 4% 9% 5% 1% 20
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 959 46% 26% 10% 3% 10% 4% 0% 20
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[21]
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[22]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov ? ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[23]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[24]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seat projections

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Lab. Con. PC LD Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1 Based on 40 seats. Seats were reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 22 14 4 0

Analysis

[edit]

The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP.[25]

Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election.[26]

The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017.[27]

The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes.[28]

Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England.[29] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli.[30] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth.[31]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
  2. ^ Sat as an independent from June 2023.
  3. ^ Sat as an independent from July 2020.
  4. ^ Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
  5. ^ Incumbent MP for Islwyn
  6. ^ Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
  7. ^ An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
  8. ^ Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
  9. ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
  10. ^ Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
  11. ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. ^ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. ^ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  5. ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  6. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  7. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  8. ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  9. ^ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
  10. ^ Stacey, Kiran (1 February 2024). "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian. Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
  11. ^ Brennan, Kevin [@KevinBrennanMP] (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years - thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  13. ^ "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he wont be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Conservative MP seeking new seat for next election". BBC News. 22 October 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  15. ^ "Welsh Labour: Frontbench MP beats left-winger in seat battle". BBC News. 7 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
  17. ^ In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
  18. ^ "Results of the 2024 General Election in Wales". BBC News.
  19. ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  20. ^ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  21. ^ "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  22. ^ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  23. ^ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  24. ^ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  25. ^ Jones, Matt (5 July 2024). "General Election 2024: Labour win Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr". The Leader. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  26. ^ Hayward, Will (5 July 2024). "Why this was an incredible election for Plaid Cymru". Wales Online.
  27. ^ Compton, Karen (6 July 2024). "Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe election result: Lib Dems take seat off Conservatives". www.shropshirestar.com.
  28. ^ Morris, Steven (5 July 2024). "Wipeout for Tories in Wales as Labour takes 27 of 32 seats" – via The Guardian.
  29. ^ D'Urso, Joey [@josephmdurso] (7 July 2024). "Still looking through election results to see if I've missed anything interesting... here's one - Reform got a higher vote share in Wales (16.9%) than England (15.3%)" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 August 2024 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ Masters, Adrian (5 July 2024). "Questions to be asked despite Welsh Labour wins as Reform votes hint at what's to come". ITV Wales. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  31. ^ Jamshidian, Harry (5 July 2024). "Labour's Stephen Doughty holds Cardiff South and Penarth". Penarth Times. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
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