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List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election

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The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on 4 July 2024. This list shows the most marginal seats, ie those needing the smallest swing to be won by each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019, as applied to the 2024 constituency boundaries.[1][2] The term "target seats" is sometimes used to describe seats requiring a low swing, but it is also used to refer to the seats on which a party has chosen to "target" its campaigning. The list of a party's target seats is not made public.[3][4]

Owing to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019.[5]

List by party

[edit]

Conservative

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Conservatives[6]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Warrington South[note 1] Labour Party 0.06% Labour Party
2 Coventry North West Labour Party 0.22% Labour Party
3 Kensington and Bayswater[note 2] Labour Party 0.36% Labour Party
4 Alyn and Deeside Labour Party 0.39% Labour Party
5 Wirral West Labour Party 0.41% Labour Party
6 Beckenham and Penge[note 3] Labour Party 0.52% Labour Party
7 Heywood and Middleton North[note 4] Labour Party 0.80% Labour Party
8 Dagenham and Rainham Labour Party 0.80% Labour Party
9 Coventry South[note 5] Labour Party 0.86% Labour Party
10 Warwick and Leamington Labour Party 1.12% Labour Party
11 Bedford Labour Party 1.19% Labour Party
12 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] Labour Party 1.31% Labour Party
13 Doncaster Central Labour Party 1.38% Labour Party
14 Ceredigion Preseli[note 5][note 6] Plaid Cymru 1.40% Plaid Cymru
15 Rawmarsh and Conisbrough[note 5] Labour Party 1.55% Labour Party
16 Chesterfield Labour Party 1.61% Labour Party
17 Oldham East and Saddleworth Labour Party 1.62% Labour Party
18 Warrington North Labour Party 1.63% Labour Party
19 Canterbury Labour Party 1.89% Labour Party
20 Halifax Labour Party 1.99% Labour Party
21 Newport West and Islwyn[note 5] Labour Party 2.06% Labour Party
22 Perth and Kinross-shire[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.09% Scottish National Party
23 Cramlington and Killingworth[note 5][note 7] Labour Party 2.24% Labour Party
24 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.50% Labour Party
25 Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey[note 5] Scottish National Party 2.56% Scottish National Party
26 Doncaster North Labour Party 2.58% Labour Party
27 Nottingham North and Kimberley Labour Party 2.89% Labour Party
28 Gower Labour Party 2.93% Labour Party
29 Leeds East Labour Party 3.06% Labour Party
30 Leeds West and Pudsey[note 5][note 8] Labour Party 3.09% Labour Party
31 Wolverhampton South East Labour Party 3.10% Labour Party
32 Tynemouth Labour Party 3.26% Labour Party
33 Bradford South Labour Party 3.34% Labour Party
34 Croydon East[note 5] Labour Party 3.37% Labour Party
35 Sunderland Central Labour Party 3.41% Labour Party
36 Stalybridge and Hyde Labour Party 3.48% Labour Party
37 Lothian East Scottish National Party[note 9] 3.62% Labour Party
38 Houghton and Sunderland South Labour Party 3.65% Labour Party
39 Kingston upon Hull East Labour Party 3.67% Labour Party
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
46 Hartlepool Labour Party[note 10] 4.38% Labour Party
– Mid Bedfordshire[note 11] Conservative Party – Conservative Party

Labour

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Labour[7]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Burnley Conservative Party 0.13% Labour Party
2 Leigh and Atherton[note 5] Conservative Party 0.33% Labour Party
3 High Peak Conservative Party 0.54% Labour Party
4 Bangor Aberconwy[note 5] Conservative Party 0.77% Labour Party
5 Wolverhampton West[note 5] Conservative Party 0.92% Labour Party
6 Bury South Conservative Party 0.94% Labour Party
7 Bury North Conservative Party 1.20% Labour Party
8 Bolton North East Conservative Party 1.28% Labour Party
9 Watford Conservative Party 1.35% Labour Party
10 Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative Party 1.47% Conservative Party
11 Wycombe Conservative Party 1.58% Labour Party
12 Birmingham Northfield Conservative Party 1.68% Labour Party
13 Leeds North West[note 12] Conservative Party 1.80% Labour Party
14 Stroud Conservative Party 2.03% Labour Party
15 Keighley and Ilkley Conservative Party 2.11% Conservative Party
16 Stoke-on-Trent Central Conservative Party 2.11% Labour Party
17 Lothian East Scottish National Party[note 9] 2.15% Labour Party
18 Whitehaven and Workington[note 5] Conservative Party 2.17% Labour Party
19 Gedling Conservative Party 2.22% Labour Party
20 Walsall and Bloxwich[note 5] Conservative Party 2.40% Labour Party
21 Peterborough Conservative Party 2.47% Labour Party
22 Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Party 2.57% Labour Party
23 West Bromwich[note 5] Conservative Party 2.60% Labour Party
24 Mid Cheshire[note 5] Conservative Party 2.66% Labour Party
25 Wakefield and Rothwell[note 5][note 13] Conservative Party 2.67% Labour Party
26 Ynys Mon Conservative Party 2.69% Plaid Cymru
27 Derby North Conservative Party 2.70% Labour Party
28 Bridgend Conservative Party 2.73% Labour Party
29 Clwyd North[note 5] Conservative Party 2.76% Labour Party
30 Lancaster and Wyre[note 5][note 14] Conservative Party 3.05% Labour Party
31 Hastings and Rye Conservative Party 3.36% Labour Party
32 Eltham and Chislehurst[note 5][note 15] Conservative Party 3.37% Labour Party
33 Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Scottish National Party[note 16] 3.41% Labour Party
34 Lincoln Conservative Party 3.47% Labour Party
35 Hyndburn Conservative Party 3.48% Labour Party
36 Broxtowe Conservative Party 3.58% Labour Party
37 Chipping Barnet Conservative Party 3.60% Labour Party
38 Northampton North Conservative Party 3.85% Labour Party
39 Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor[note 5] Conservative Party 3.93% Labour Party
40 Hendon Conservative Party 4.01% Labour Party
41 Truro and Falmouth Conservative Party 4.04% Labour Party
42 Wrexham Conservative Party 4.18% Labour Party
43 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 17] Conservative Party 4.35% Labour Party
44 Blackpool South[note 13] Conservative Party 4.36% Labour Party
45 Calder Valley Conservative Party 4.52% Labour Party
46 Southampton Itchen Conservative Party 4.70% Labour Party
47 Milton Keynes Central[note 5] Conservative Party 4.70% Labour Party
48 Clwyd East[note 5] Conservative Party 5.00% Labour Party
49 Glasgow North East Scottish National Party 5.01% Labour Party
50 Darlington Conservative Party 5.36% Labour Party
51 Redcar Conservative Party 5.45% Labour Party
52 Ipswich Conservative Party 5.53% Labour Party
53 Coatbridge and Bellshill[note 5] Scottish National Party 5.54% Labour Party
54 Altrincham and Sale West Conservative Party 5.61% Labour Party
55 Swindon South Conservative Party 5.70% Labour Party
56 Cities of London and Westminster Conservative Party 5.73% Labour Party
57 Airdrie and Shotts Scottish National Party 5.74% Labour Party
58 Bolsover Conservative Party 5.77% Labour Party
59 Shipley Conservative Party 5.78% Labour Party
60 Crewe and Nantwich Conservative Party 5.79% Labour Party
61 Rutherglen[note 5][note 18] Scottish National Party 5.90% Labour Party
62. Loughborough Conservative Party 5.90% Labour Party
63. Midlothian Scottish National Party 5.92% Labour Party
64. Rushcliffe Conservative Party 6.12% Labour Party
65. Tipton and Wednesbury[note 5] Conservative Party 6.14% Labour Party
66. Norwich North Conservative Party 6.25% Labour Party
67. Spen Valley[note 5] Conservative Party 6.42% Labour Party
68. Glasgow South West Scottish National Party 6.43% Labour Party
69. Milton Keynes North Conservative Party 6.55% Labour Party
70. Worcester Conservative Party 6.64% Labour Party
71. Glasgow North Scottish National Party 6.72% Labour Party
72. Rother Valley Conservative Party 6.74% Labour Party
73. Southport Conservative Party 6.80% Labour Party
74. Ashfield Conservative Party[note 19] 6.81% Reform UK
75. Shrewsbury[note 5] Conservative Party 6.96% Labour Party
76. East Worthing and Shoreham Conservative Party 7.03% Labour Party
77. Caerfyrddin[note 5] Conservative Party 7.04% Plaid Cymru
78. Penistone and Stocksbridge Conservative Party 7.28% Labour Party
79. Barrow and Furness Conservative Party 7.43% Labour Party
80. Colne Valley Conservative Party 7.46% Labour Party
81. Ceredigion Preseli[note 5] Plaid Cymru 7.49% Plaid Cymru
82. Filton and Bradley Stoke Conservative Party 7.61% Labour Party
83. Glasgow East Scottish National Party 7.62% Labour Party
84. Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative Party 7.77% Labour Party
85. Mid and South Pembrokeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 7.84% Labour Party
86. East Thanet[note 5] Conservative Party 7.91% Labour Party
87. Corby and East Northamptonshire[note 5] Conservative Party 8.05% Labour Party
88. Leeds South West and Morley[note 5] Conservative Party 8.16% Labour Party
89. Hamilton and Clyde Valley[note 5] Scottish National Party 8.18% Labour Party
90. Bishop Auckland Conservative Party 8.19% Labour Party
91. Chelsea and Fulham Conservative Party 8.21% Labour Party
92. Crawley Conservative Party 8.38% Labour Party
93. Na h-Eileanan an Iar Scottish National Party[note 20] 8.42% Labour Party
94. Harrow East Conservative Party 8.59% Conservative Party
95. South Ribble Conservative Party 8.65% Labour Party
96. Newcastle-under-Lyme Conservative Party 8.73% Labour Party
97. Bournemouth East Conservative Party 8.94% Labour Party
98. Stevenage Conservative Party 8.98% Labour Party
99. Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke[note 5] Scottish National Party 9.11% Labour Party
100. Glasgow South Scottish National Party 9.42% Labour Party
101. Camborne and Redruth Conservative Party 9.55% Labour Party
102. Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West[note 5] Scottish National Party 9.64% Labour Party
103. Stoke-on-Trent North Conservative Party 9.65% Labour Party
104. Gloucester Conservative Party 9.67% Labour Party
105. Finchley and Golders Green Conservative Party 9.72% Labour Party
106. York Outer Conservative Party 9.85% Labour Party
107. Rossendale and Darwen Conservative Party 9.85% Labour Party
108. Wolverhampton North East Conservative Party 9.92% Labour Party
109. Macclesfield Conservative Party 9.94% Labour Party
110. Blackpool North and Fleetwood[note 5] Conservative Party 10.11% Labour Party
111. Monmouthshire[note 5] Conservative Party 10.25% Labour Party
112. Glasgow West[note 5] Scottish National Party 10.29% Labour Party
113. Scarborough and Whitby Conservative Party 10.33% Labour Party
114. Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] Scottish National Party 10.36% Labour Party
115. Welwyn Hatfield Conservative Party 10.40% Labour Party
116. Hitchin Conservative Party 10.42% Labour Party
117. West Dunbartonshire Scottish National Party 10.56% Labour Party
118. Bolton West Conservative Party 10.65% Labour Party
119. Scunthorpe Conservative Party 10.72% Labour Party
120. Carlisle Conservative Party 10.82% Labour Party
121. Erewash Conservative Party 10.86% Labour Party
122. Bournemouth West Conservative Party 10.86% Labour Party
123. Edinburgh North and Leith Scottish National Party 11.03% Labour Party
124. Earley and Woodley[note 5] Conservative Party 11.05% Labour Party
125. Glenrothes and Mid Fife[note 5] Scottish National Party 11.06% Labour Party
126 Colchester Conservative Party 11.14% Labour Party
127 Stockton West Conservative Party 11.29% Conservative Party
128 Edinburgh East and Musselburgh[note 5] Scottish National Party 11.29% Labour Party
129 Hexham Conservative Party 11.29% Labour Party
130 Ossett and Denby Dale[note 5] Conservative Party 11.34% Labour Party
131 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland[note 5] Conservative Party 11.44% Labour Party
132 Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru 11.45% Plaid Cymru
133 Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme[note 5] Conservative Party 11.70% Labour Party
134 Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes[note 5] Conservative Party 11.71% Labour Party
135 Pendle and Clitheroe[note 5] Conservative Party 11.92% Labour Party
136 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scottish National Party 11.96% Labour Party
137 Basingstoke Conservative Party 12.02% Labour Party
138 Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] Scottish National Party 12.11% Labour Party
139 Dover and Deal[note 5] Conservative Party 12.13% Labour Party
140 Penrith and Solway[note 5] Conservative Party 12.31% Labour Party
141 Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch[note 5] Scottish National Party 12.45% Labour Party
142 Telford Conservative Party 12.52% Labour Party
143 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scottish National Party 12.56% Labour Party
144 East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] Scottish National Party 12.60% Labour Party
145 Livingston Scottish National Party 12.61% Labour Party
146 Buckingham and Bletchley[note 5] Conservative Party 12.68% Labour Party
147 Morecambe and Lunesdale Conservative Party 12.75% Labour Party
148 North East Derbyshire Conservative Party 13.04% Labour Party
149 Croydon South Conservative Party 13.06% Conservative Party
150 Rugby Conservative Party 13.10% Labour Party
Other seats gained and lost in by-elections that Labour is targeting[8][note 13]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
163 Selby[note 5] Conservative Party 14.06% Labour Party
211 Wellingborough and Rushden[note 5] Conservative Party 17.05% Labour Party
– Bristol North East[note 5] Labour Party – Labour Party
– Hartlepool Labour Party[note 10] – Labour Party
– Mid Bedfordshire[note 11] Conservative Party – Conservative Party
– Rochdale Labour Party[note 21] – Labour Party
– Tamworth Conservative Party – Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Liberal Democrats[9]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Carshalton and Wallington Conservative Party 0.64% Liberal Democrats
2 North East Fife[note 22] Scottish National Party 0.70% Liberal Democrats
3 Wimbledon Conservative Party 0.74% Liberal Democrats
4 Sheffield Hallam Labour Party 0.92% Labour Party
5 South Cambridgeshire Conservative Party 1.25% Liberal Democrats
6 Cheltenham Conservative Party 1.25% Liberal Democrats
7 Mid Dunbartonshire[note 5] Scottish National Party 1.69% Liberal Democrats
8 Cheadle Conservative Party 2.09% Liberal Democrats
9 Eastbourne Conservative Party 2.11% Liberal Democrats
10 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 23] Scottish National Party 2.64% Liberal Democrats
11 Esher and Walton Conservative Party 2.68% Liberal Democrats
12 Guildford Conservative Party 2.96% Liberal Democrats
13 Lewes Conservative Party 3.71% Liberal Democrats
14 Hazel Grove Conservative Party 4.18% Liberal Democrats
15 Westmorland and Lonsdale[note 24] Conservative Party 4.74% Liberal Democrats
16 St Ives Conservative Party 4.85% Liberal Democrats
17 Finchley and Golders Green Conservative Party 5.98% Labour Party
18 Cities of London and Westminster Conservative Party 6.05% Labour Party
19 Winchester Conservative Party 7.08% Liberal Democrats
20 Taunton and Wellington[note 5] Conservative Party 7.84% Liberal Democrats
21 Harrogate and Knaresborough Conservative Party 7.91% Liberal Democrats
22 Cambridge Labour Party 8.14% Labour Party
23 Sutton and Cheam Conservative Party 8.27% Liberal Democrats
24 Woking Conservative Party 8.50% Liberal Democrats
25 Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe[note 5] Conservative Party 8.70% Liberal Democrats
26 Eastleigh Conservative Party 8.72% Liberal Democrats
27 Didcot and Wantage[note 5] Conservative Party 9.22% Liberal Democrats
28 Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour Party 9.28% Labour Party
29 Dorking and Horley[note 5] Conservative Party 9.44% Liberal Democrats
30 Godalming and Ash[note 5] Conservative Party 9.63% Conservative Party
31 West Dorset Conservative Party 10.71% Liberal Democrats
32 Chelsea and Fulham Conservative Party 10.82% Labour Party
33 Henley and Thame[note 5] Conservative Party 11.05% Liberal Democrats
34 Newbury Conservative Party 11.24% Liberal Democrats
35 Wokingham Conservative Party 11.59% Liberal Democrats
36 Hitchin[note 5] Conservative Party 11.67% Labour Party
37 Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] Labour Party 11.68% Labour Party
38 St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 12.24% Liberal Democrats
39 Ely and East Cambridgeshire[note 5] Conservative Party 12.35% Liberal Democrats
40 South Devon[note 5] Conservative Party 12.66% Liberal Democrats
41 Wells and Mendip Hills[note 5] Conservative Party 12.66% Liberal Democrats
42 Mid Sussex Conservative Party 12.90% Liberal Democrats
43 Frome and East Somerset[note 5][note 13] Conservative Party 12.92% Liberal Democrats
44 Thornbury and Yate Conservative Party 12.96% Liberal Democrats
45 Chippenham Conservative Party 13.06% Liberal Democrats
46 Farnham and Bordon[note 5] Conservative Party 13.27% Conservative Party
47 North Devon Conservative Party 13.33% Liberal Democrats
48 Glastonbury and Somerton[note 5][note 13] Conservative Party 13.33% Liberal Democrats
49 Tunbridge Wells Conservative Party 13.40% Liberal Democrats
50 Earley and Woodley[note 5] Conservative Party 13.48% Labour Party
51 Harpenden and Berkhamsted Conservative Party 13.52% Liberal Democrats
52 Yeovil Conservative Party 13.52% Liberal Democrats
53 Ceredigion Preseli Plaid Cymru 13.64% Plaid Cymru
54 Bicester and Woodstock Conservative Party 13.66% Liberal Democrats
55 Norfolk North Conservative Party 14.05% Liberal Democrats
56 Chelmsford Conservative Party 14.32% Liberal Democrats
57 Cornwall North Conservative Party 14.59% Liberal Democrats
58 Romsey and Southampton North Conservative Party 14.68% Conservative Party
59 Epsom and Ewell Conservative Party 14.68% Liberal Democrats
60 Surrey Heath Conservative Party 14.74% Liberal Democrats
61 Aylesbury Conservative Party 14.90% Labour Party
62 Durham, City of Conservative Party 14.92% Labour Party
63 Mid Dorset and North Poole Conservative Party 15.09% Liberal Democrats
64 Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative Party 15.12% Conservative Party
65 South Cotswolds Conservative Party 15.13% Liberal Democrats
66 Melksham and Devizes Conservative Party 15.27% Liberal Democrats
67 York Outer Conservative Party 15.48% Labour Party
68 Horsham Conservative Party 15.54% Liberal Democrats
69 Edinburgh North and Leith Scottish National Party 15.64% Labour Party
70 Hornsey and Friern Barnet Labour Party 15.81% Labour Party
71 Banbury Conservative Party 15.81% Labour Party
72 Witney Conservative Party 16.05% Liberal Democrats
73 Newton Abbot Conservative Party 16.65% Liberal Democrats
74 Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Scottish National Party 16.78% Liberal Democrats
75 Maidenhead Conservative Party 16.79% Liberal Democrats
76 Chesham and Amersham Conservative Party[note 25] 16.96% Liberal Democrats
77 Brentford and Isleworth Labour Party 17.00% Labour Party
78 Bathgate and Linlithgow Scottish National Party 17.39% Labour Party
79 Torbay Conservative Party 17.41% Liberal Democrats
80 Ealing Central and Acton Labour Party 17.47% Labour Party
81 East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative Party 17.73% Conservative Party
82 Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour Party 17.750% Labour Party
83 Stratford-on-Avon Conservative Party 17.76% Liberal Democrats
88 Tewkesbury Conservative Party 18.05% Liberal Democrats
103 Chichester Conservative Party 19.23% Liberal Democrats
111 Hampshire North East Conservative Party 19.77% Liberal Democrats
Other seats gained in by-elections the Liberal Democrats are targeting[10][note 13]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
142 Tiverton and Minehead[note 5] Conservative Party 20.91% Liberal Democrats
258 Honiton and Sidmouth[note 5] Conservative Party 24.99% Liberal Democrats
– North Shropshire Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Reform UK

[edit]

The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019.[11] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales.[12]

Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Reform UK[13]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Barnsley North[note 5] Labour Party 4.50% Labour Party
2 Hartlepool[note 26] Labour Party 5.92% Labour Party
3 Barnsley South[note 5] Labour Party 6.29% Labour Party
4 Doncaster North Labour Party 12.82% Labour Party
5 Easington Labour Party 14.31% Labour Party
6 South Shields Labour Party 14.70% Labour Party
7 Rotherham Labour Party 16.07% Labour Party
8 Normanton and Hemsworth[note 5] Labour Party 16.19% Labour Party
9 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney[note 5] Labour Party 16.20% Labour Party
10 Houghton and Sunderland South Labour Party 16.81% Labour Party
11 Caerphilly Labour Party 16.85% Labour Party
12 Kingston upon Hull East Labour Party 17.46% Labour Party
13 Wigan Labour Party 18.55% Labour Party
14 Pontypridd Labour Party 19.09% Labour Party
15 Neath and Swansea East[note 5] Labour Party 19.38% Labour Party
16 Washington and Gateshead South[note 5] Labour Party 19.60% Labour Party
17 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley[note 5] Labour Party 19.77% Labour Party
18 Jarrow and Gateshead East[note 5] Labour Party 19.84% Labour Party
19 Torfaen Labour Party 20.12% Labour Party
20 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice[note 5][note 27] Conservative Party 20.31% Labour Party
Other seats Reform UK is targeting
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
32 Ashfield Conservative Party[note 19] 21.88% Reform UK
– Boston and Skegness[14] Conservative Party – Reform UK
– Clacton[15] Conservative Party – Reform UK

Scottish National Party

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Scottish National Party[16]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Conservative Party 0.79% Conservative Party
2 Dumfries and Galloway Conservative Party 1.48% Conservative Party
3 Aberdeenshire North and Moray East[note 5] Conservative Party 2.61% Scottish National Party
4 Edinburgh West Liberal Democrats 2.62% Liberal Democrats
5 Gordon and Buchan[note 5][note 28] Conservative Party 3.39% Conservative Party
6 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative Party 4.26% Conservative Party
7 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative Party 4.84% Conservative Party
8 Orkney and Shetland Liberal Democrats 5.41% Liberal Democrats
9 Edinburgh South Labour Party 10.18% Labour Party
Other seats the SNP is targeting
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
– North East Fife[note 22] Scottish National Party – Liberal Democrats
– Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross[note 23] Scottish National Party – Liberal Democrats
– Rutherglen[note 5][note 18] Scottish National Party – Labour Party

Plaid Cymru

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Plaid Cymru[17]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Ynys Mon Conservative Party 3.48% Plaid Cymru
2 Caerfyrddin[note 5] Conservative Party 4.25% Plaid Cymru
3 Llanelli Labour Party 9.53% Labour Party
4 Caerphilly Labour Party 14.59% Labour Party
5 Pontypridd Labour Party 17.87% Labour Party
6 Neath and Swansea East[note 5] Labour Party 19.70% Labour Party

Green Party

[edit]
Seats needing smallest swing to be won by Green Party of England and Wales[18]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Bristol Central[note 5] Labour Party 16.23% Green Party of England and Wales
2 Isle of Wight West[note 5] Conservative Party 19.30% Labour Party
6 Frome and East Somerset[note 5] Conservative Party 21.61% Liberal Democrats
7 Isle of Wight East[note 5] Conservative Party 21.70% Conservative Party
8 Hampstead and Highgate[note 5] Labour Party 21.99% Labour Party
Other seats England & Wales Greens are targeting[19]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
82 Waveney Valley Conservative Party 26.45% Green Party of England and Wales
– North Herefordshire Conservative Party – Green Party of England and Wales
Scottish Greens target seats[18]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
3 Edinburgh North and Leith Scottish National Party 20.26% Labour Party
5 Dunfermline and Dollar[note 5] Scottish National Party 21.35% Labour Party
9 East Kilbride and Strathaven[note 5] Scottish National Party 22.24% Labour Party
10 Livingston Scottish National Party 22.34% Labour Party
11 Bathgate and Linlithgow[note 5] Scottish National Party 22.46% Labour Party
12 Edinburgh South West Scottish National Party 22.60% Labour Party
Green Party Northern Ireland target seat[18]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
4 West Tyrone[citation needed] Sinn Féin 20.53% Sinn Féin

Northern Irish parties

[edit]

Marginal seats requiring swings of under 10%:

Ulster Unionist Party[20]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin 0.49% Sinn Féin
2 South Antrim Democratic Unionist Party 3.56% Ulster Unionist Party
Sinn Féin[21]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Upper Bann Democratic Unionist Party 8.05% Democratic Unionist Party
Democratic Unionist Party[22]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 North Down Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 3.09% Independent
2 Belfast North Sinn Féin 3.88% Sinn Féin
3 South Down Sinn Féin 9.06% Sinn Féin
4 West Tyrone Sinn Féin 9.20% Sinn Féin
Social Democratic and Labour Party[23]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 South Down Sinn Féin 1.80% Sinn Féin
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland[24]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing
required 		Winning party 2024
1 Belfast East Democratic Unionist Party 2.91% Democratic Unionist Party
2 Strangford Democratic Unionist Party 7.07% Democratic Unionist Party
3 East Antrim Democratic Unionist Party 7.96% Democratic Unionist Party
4 Lagan Valley Democratic Unionist Party 8.12% Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Warrington South was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  2. ^ Kensington was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  3. ^ Beckenham was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  4. ^ Heywood and Middleton was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx New seat
  6. ^ Preseli Pembrokeshire was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but is notionally a Plaid Cymru seat under new boundaries
  7. ^ Blyth Valley was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but its successor seat is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  8. ^ Pudsey was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Leeds West, is notionally a Labour seat under new boundaries
  9. ^ a b The incumbent MP is Kenny MacAskill from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
  10. ^ a b This seat was won by the Conservative Party in a by-election.
  11. ^ a b This seat was won by the Labour Party in a a by-election; part of this constituency was transferred to the new Hitchin constituency which is where the incumbent Labour MP stood.
  12. ^ Leeds North West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  13. ^ a b c d e f Predecessor seat gained in by-election
  14. ^ Wyre and Preston North was won by the Conservatives in 2019, but merged with Lancaster and Fleetwood which was won by Labour, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  15. ^ Eltham was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Bromley and Chislehurst which was won by the Conservatives, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  16. ^ The incumbent MP is Neale Hanvey from the Alba Party who defected from the SNP
  17. ^ Kingston upon Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but merged with Haltemprice and Howden, is notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries
  18. ^ a b Rutherglen and Hamilton West was won by Labour in the 2023 by-election, but is still notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries.
  19. ^ a b The incumbent MP is Lee Anderson from Reform UK who defected from the Conservatives
  20. ^ The incumbent is Independent MP Angus MacNeil who was expelled from the SNP
  21. ^ This seat was won by the Workers Party in a by-election.
  22. ^ a b North East Fife was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal, but in fact was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 13,479-vote (31.5%) majority.
  23. ^ a b Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but is notionally an SNP seat under new boundaries. This seat was considered ultra-marginal but now has a notional SNP majority of over 3,000 votes; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 10,489-vote (22.8%) majority.
  24. ^ Westmorland and Lonsdale was won by the Liberal Democrats in 2019, but was notionally a Conservative seat under new boundaries; in fact it was held by the Liberal Democrats in 2024 with a 21,472-vote (43.3%) majority.
  25. ^ This seat was won by the Liberal Democrats in a by-election.
  26. ^ Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election
  27. ^ Hull West was won by Labour in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries
  28. ^ Gordon was won by the SNP in 2019, but is notionally an Conservative seat under new boundaries

References

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  1. ^ Leach, Anna; Hoog, Niels de. "UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right". the Guardian. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  2. ^ "Election 2024: The key seats to watch out for as date set for 4 July". Sky News. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  3. ^ Moules, James (5 July 2024). "Leeds North West general election result: Meet new MP Katie White". LabourList. Retrieved 23 July 2024. Labour's target seat list is not public, but this seat ranks 14th on LabourList's unofficial list of targets – based on the smallest swings required versus the 2019 election.
  4. ^ Shirreff, Lauren (22 May 2024). "How eight seats could define the general election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  5. ^ "List of general election top target seats, by party". The Independent. 16 January 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  6. ^ "Conservative Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  7. ^ "Labour Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  8. ^ Eaton, George (29 January 2024). "How Labour's path to a majority has eased". New Statesman. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  9. ^ "Liberal Democrat Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  10. ^ "Liberal Democrats targeting Tory seats in election fight back". BBC News. 27 January 2023. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  11. ^ "Could Reform UK surge sink Tory election hopes?". BBC News. 16 February 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  12. ^ Penna, Dominic; Corfe, Ollie (28 February 2024). "Six graphs that show Reform UK could be kingmakers at the election". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  13. ^ "Reform UK Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Reform UK leader Richard Tice to stand in Boston and Skegness". 23 May 2024. Retrieved 23 May 2024.
  15. ^ "Nigel Farage has milkshake thrown over him after election campaign launch in Clacton". Sky News. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
  16. ^ "SNP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling.
  17. ^ "Plaid Cymru Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  18. ^ a b c "Green Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Archived from the original on 7 April 2024. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  19. ^ Walker, Peter (5 October 2023). "Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  20. ^ "UUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  21. ^ "Sinn Fein Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  22. ^ "DUP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  23. ^ "SDLP Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
  24. ^ "Alliance NI Targets Seats 2024". Election Polling. Retrieved 5 May 2024.
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