2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 Results by constituencies | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
The 2024 general election in Northern Ireland was held on 4 July 2024, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons contested. The general election occurred after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.
Background
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]MPs are elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.
Date of the election
[edit]On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]
Constituency boundaries
[edit]
In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months.[2] Changes include:
- Belfast South became Belfast South and Mid Down, and incorporates some areas formerly part of Strangford or Lagan Valley.
- East Antrim now includes some areas that were previously in North Antrim.
- Foyle was reduced in size, with areas incorporated into the constituencies of West Tyrone and East Londonderry.[2]
- Strangford was expanded to include large swathes of the eastern side of South Down.
Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023.[3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November[4] and came into force on 29 November.[5]
Campaign
[edit]In the run up to the election, there was speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts would be active in some constituencies.[6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there was still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) would field candidates.[7] The TUV leader Jim Allister said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it would support an “agreed single unionist candidate".[8]
In North Down, there were calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry.[9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023.[10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts".[11] Alex Easton announced his independent Unionist candidacy for the seat.[12]
In October 2023 the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland revealed that they intended to target Lagan Valley, seat of the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and required a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP.[13]
Amongst majority nationalist constituencies, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle.[14]
The campaign got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins said he was "very confident" of unseating Farry.[15]
In January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim[16] and announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley.[17]
On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland.[18] On 24 May they announced that they were supporting Alex Easton, the Independent Unionist candidate in North Down, and would not stand a candidate in that constituency.[19]
The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Sen. Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they would stand in every constituency and would not pursue any electoral pacts.[20]
On 7 May 2024, the UUP announced that 19 year-old Jay Basra, who is Punjabi-British, would be their candidate for Mid Ulster.[21] Following the announcement, Basra was the target of racial abuse on social media. The abuse was condemned by UUP leader Doug Beattie and former First Minister Arlene Foster, as well as deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly.[22]
Jeffrey Donaldson, who was the DUP leader until March 2024, appeared in court on 3 July to face additional sex offence charges.[23][24]
Candidates
[edit]By affiliation
[edit].svg) 2024 United Kingdom general election (4 July) | |
|---|---|
| Parties | |
| Campaign | |
| Overview by country | |
| Outcome | |
| Related | |
| |
| Affiliation | Number of candidates[25] | |
|---|---|---|
| Alliance Party of Northern Ireland | 18 | |
| Social Democratic and Labour Party | 18 | |
| Ulster Unionist Party | 17 | |
| Democratic Unionist Party | 16 | |
| Sinn Féin | 14 | |
| Traditional Unionist Voice | 14 | |
| Green Party Northern Ireland | 11 | |
| Aontú | 10 | |
| Independents | 9 (in 7 constituencies) | |
| Northern Ireland Conservatives | 5 | |
| People Before Profit | 3 | |
| Cross-Community Labour Alternative | 1 | |
| Total | 136 | |
By constituency
[edit]| Constituency | Sinn Féin | DUP | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Green | Aontú | Others | Incumbent | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfast East | Gavin Robinson | Naomi Long | Ryan Warren | Séamas de Faoite | John Ross | Brian Smyth | Ryan North (Independent) | DUP | Gavin Robinson | |||
| Belfast North | John Finucane | Phillip Brett | Nuala McAllister | Carl Whyte | David Clarke | Mal O'Hara | Fiona Ferguson (PBP) | SF | John Finucane | |||
| Belfast South and Mid Down | Tracy Kelly | Kate Nicholl | Michael Henderson | Claire Hanna | Dan Boucher | Áine Groogan | SDLP | Claire Hanna | ||||
| Belfast West | Paul Maskey | Frank McCoubrey | Eóin Millar | Ben Sharkey | Paul Doherty | Ann McClure | Ash Jones | Gerard Herdman | Gerry Carroll (PBP) Tony Mallon (Independent) |
SF | Paul Maskey | |
| East Antrim | Oliver McMullan | Sammy Wilson | Danny Donnelly | John Stewart | Margaret Anne McKillop | Matthew Warwick | Mark Bailey | DUP | Sammy Wilson | |||
| East Londonderry | Kathleen McGurk | Gregory Campbell | Richard Stewart | Glenn Miller | Cara Hunter | Allister Kyle | Jen McCahon | Gemma Brolly | Claire Scull (Conservative) | DUP | Gregory Campbell | |
| Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Pat Cullen | Eddie Roofe | Diana Armstrong | Paul Blake | Carl Duffy | Gerry Cullen (CCLA) | SF | Michelle Gildernew | ||||
| Foyle | Sandra Duffy | Gary Middleton | Rachael Ferguson | Janice Montgomery | Colum Eastwood | John Boyle | Shaun Harkin (PBP) Anne McCloskey (Independent) |
SDLP | Colum Eastwood | |||
| Lagan Valley | Jonathan Buckley | Sorcha Eastwood | Robbie Butler | Simon Lee | Lorna Smyth | Patricia Denvir | Independent (elected as DUP) | Jeffrey Donaldson | ||||
| Mid Ulster | Cathal Mallaghan | Keith Buchanan | Padraic Farrell | Jay Basra | Denise Johnston | Glenn Moore | Alixandra Halliday | John Kelly (Independent) | SF | Francie Molloy | ||
| Newry and Armagh | Dáire Hughes | Gareth Wilson | Helena Young | Sam Nicholson | Pete Byrne | Keith Ratcliffe | Liam Reichenberg | Samantha Rayner (Conservative) | SF | Mickey Brady | ||
| North Antrim | Philip McGuigan | Ian Paisley Jr | Sian Mulholland | Jackson Minford | Helen Maher | Jim Allister | Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill | Tristan Morrow (Independent) | DUP | Ian Paisley Jr | ||
| North Down | Stephen Farry | Tim Collins | Déirdre Vaughan | Barry McKee | Alex Easton (Independent) Chris Carter (Independent) |
APNI | Stephen Farry | |||||
| South Antrim | Declan Kearney | Paul Girvan | John Blair | Robin Swann | Roisin Lynch | Mel Lucas | Lesley Veronica | Siobhan McErlean | DUP | Paul Girvan | ||
| South Down | Chris Hazzard | Diane Forsythe | Andrew McMurray | Michael O'Loan | Colin McGrath | Jim Wells | Declan Walsh | Rosemary McGlone | Hannah Westropp (Conservative) | SF | Chris Hazzard | |
| Strangford | Noel Sands | Jim Shannon | Michelle Guy | Richard Smart | Will Polland | Ron McDowell | Alexandra Braidner | Gareth Burns (Independent) Garreth Falls (Independent) Barry Hetherington (Conservative) |
DUP | Jim Shannon | ||
| Upper Bann | Catherine Nelson | Carla Lockhart | Eóin Tennyson | Kate Evans | Malachy Quinn | DUP | Carla Lockhart | |||||
| West Tyrone | Órfhlaith Begley | Tom Buchanan | Stephen Donnelly | Matthew Bell | Daniel McCrossan | Stevan Patterson | Leza Houston | Stephen Lynch (Conservative) | SF | Órfhlaith Begley | ||
Opinion polling
[edit]| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
DUP | SF | Alliance | SDLP | UUP | TUV | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[26] | – | 22.1% | 27.0% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9 | |
| 24–25 Jun 2024 | LucidTalk[27] | Belfast Telegraph | 3,859 | 21% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 7%
|
2 |
| 8–10 Jun 2024 | LucidTalk[28] | Belfast Telegraph | 3,634 | 21% | 24% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 5% | 8%
|
3 |
| 10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk[29] | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 20% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 8%
|
6 |
| 28 Jan – 11 Feb 2024 | Social Market Research[30] | Irish News–University of Liverpool | 1,206 | 23.5% | 31.1% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 4.8% | – | 6.6 |
| 26 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 | Social Market Research[31] | Institute of Irish Studies | 1,074 | 25% | 31% | 15% | 9% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 6 |
| 14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[d] | ARK | 1,200 | 19% | 24% | 28% | 9% | 13% | – | 9%
|
4 |
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 30.6% | 22.8% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 11.7% | N/A | 3.2% | 7.8 | |
Projections
[edit]| Source | Date | DUP | SF | SDLP | APNI | UUP | TUV | Ind. | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electoral Calculus[33] | 4 July | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bunker Consulting Group[34] | 1 July | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ireland Votes[35] | 25 May | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Leadership approval ratings
[edit] | This section needs to be updated. (June 2024) |
Michelle O'Neill
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% |
Jeffrey Donaldson
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | −42% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | −38% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | −38% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | −36% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | −37% |
Naomi Long
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | −1% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | −1% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
Doug Beattie
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | −4% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | −14% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% |
Colum Eastwood
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | −17% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | −8% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | −5% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | −8% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% |
Jim Allister
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/great | Bad/awful | Don't know | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | −40% |
| 21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | −34% |
| 20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | −30% |
| 4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | −32% |
| 12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | −23% |
Leadership performance ratings
[edit]The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.
NI political leaders
[edit]| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size | Gavin Robinson DUP leader |
Michelle O'Neill Sinn Féin VP - NI First Minister |
Naomi Long Alliance leader |
Colum Eastwood SDLP leader |
Doug Beattie UUP leader |
Jim Allister TUV leader |
Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) NI deputy First Minister |
NI Executive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 46% | 53% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 29% | 52% | 39% |
UK and Ireland political leaders
[edit]| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample Size | Simon Harris Taoiseach Ireland |
Mary Lou McDonald Sinn Féin President |
Chris Heaton-Harris NI Secretary of State |
Rishi Sunak UK Prime Minister |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 36% | 39% | 20% | 16% |
MPs not seeking re-election
[edit]| MP | Constituency | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francie Molloy | Mid Ulster | 2013 | Sinn Féin | 13 February 2024[36] | |
| Mickey Brady | Newry and Armagh | 2015 | Sinn Féin | 19 February 2024[37] | |
| Jeffrey Donaldson | Lagan Valley | 1997 | DUP[e] | 22 May 2024[38] | |
| Michelle Gildernew | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | 2001 | Sinn Féin | 23 May 2024[39] | |
Results
[edit]By affiliation
[edit]| Affiliate[40] | Seats | Aggregate votes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Gains | Losses | Net | Of all (%) | Total | Of all (%) | Difference | ||
| Sinn Féin | 7 | 0 | 0 | 
|
39% | 210,891 | 27.0% |  4.2%
| |
| DUP | 5 | 0 | −3 |  3
|
28% | 172,058 | 22.1% | 8.5%
| |
| SDLP | 2 | 0 | 0 |
|
11% | 86,861 | 11.1% | 3.8%
| |
| Alliance | 1 | +1 | −1 |
|
5.6% | 117,191 | 15.0% | 1.8%
| |
| UUP | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1
|
5.6% | 94,779 | 12.2% | 0.5%
| |
| TUV | 1 | New | 5.6% | 48,685 | 6.2% | New | |||
| Independent | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1
|
5.6% | 24,223[41] | 3.1% | 2.8%
| |
| Green (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0% | 8,692 | 1.1% | 0.9%
| |
| People Before Profit | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0% | 8,438 | 1.1% | 0.2%
| |
| Aontú | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0% | 7,466 | 1.0% | 0.2%
| |
| Labour Alternative | 0 | Did not stand in 2019 | 0.0% | 624 | 0.1% | — | |||
| NI Conservatives | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
0.0% | 553 | 0.1% | 0.6%
| |
| Total | 18 | — |
|
100% | 779,847 | 57% | 4.5%
| ||
By constituency
[edit]| Constituency | 2019 seat |
2024 seat | Votes | Turnout | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affiliate | Candidate | Votes | Share | Margin | SF | DUP | APNI | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Ind. | Other | Total | |||||
| Belfast East | DUP | DUP | Gavin Robinson | 19,894 | 46.6% | 2,676 | — | 19,894 | 17,218 | 1,818 | 619 | 1,918 | 162 | 1,077 | 42,706 | 58.6% | ||
| Belfast North | SF | SF | John Finucane | 17,674 | 43.7% | 5,612 | 17,674 | 12,062 | 4,274 | — | 1,413 | 2,877 | — | 2,152 | 40,452 | 54.5% | ||
| Belfast South and Mid Down | SDLP | SDLP | Claire Hanna | 21,345 | 49.1% | 12,506 | — | 6,859 | 8,839 | 2,653 | 21,345 | 2,218 | — | 1,577 | 43,355 | 58.0% | ||
| Belfast West | SF | SF | Paul Maskey | 21,009 | 52.9% | 15,961 | 21,009 | 4,304 | 1,077 | 461 | 4,318 | 2,010 | 161 | 6,564 | 39,743 | 53.0% | ||
| East Antrim | DUP | DUP | Sammy Wilson | 11,462 | 28.9% | 1,306 | 2,986 | 11,462 | 10,156 | 9,476 | 892 | 4,135 | — | 568 | 39,675 | 54.1% | ||
| East Londonderry | DUP | DUP | Gregory Campbell | 11,506 | 27.9% | 179 | 11,327 | 11,506 | 3,734 | 3,412 | 5,260 | 4,363 | — | 1,675 | 41,639 | 55.0% | ||
| Fermanagh and South Tyrone | SF | SF | Pat Cullen | 24,844 | 48.6% | 4,571 | 24,844 | — | 2,420 | 20,273 | 2,386 | — | — | 1,153 | 51,076 | 65.6% | ||
| Foyle | SDLP | SDLP | Colum Eastwood | 15,647 | 40.8% | 4,166 | 11,481 | 3,915 | 1,268 | 1,422 | 15,647 | — | 1,519 | 3,106 | 38,218 | 52.0% | ||
| Lagan Valley | DUP | APNI | Sorcha Eastwood | 18,618 | 37.9% | 2,959 | — | 15,659 | 18,618 | 11,157 | 1,028 | 2,186 | — | 433 | 49,081 | 59.7% | ||
| Mid Ulster | SF | SF | Cathal Mallaghan | 24,085 | 53.0% | 14,923 | 24,085 | 9,162 | 2,001 | 2,269 | 3,722 | 2,978 | 181 | 1,047 | 45,445 | 61.4% | ||
| Newry and Armagh | SF | SF | Dáire Hughes | 22,299 | 48.5% | 15,493 | 22,299 | 5,900 | 2,692 | 3,175 | 6,806 | 4,099 | — | 971 | 46,236 | 59.1% | ||
| North Antrim | DUP | TUV | Jim Allister | 11,642 | 28.3% | 450 | 7,714 | 11,192 | 4,488 | 3,901 | 1,661 | 11,642 | 136 | 451 | 41,084 | 55.0% | ||
| North Down | APNI | Ind. | Alex Easton | 20,913 | 48.3% | 7,305 | — | — | 13,608 | 6,754 | 657 | — | 20,913 | 1,364 | 43,593 | 59.0% | ||
| South Antrim | DUP | UUP | Robin Swann | 16,311 | 38.0% | 7,512 | 8,034 | 8,799 | 4,574 | 16,311 | 1,589 | 2,693 | — | 908 | 43,153 | 56.0% | ||
| South Down | SF | SF | Chris Hazzard | 19,698 | 43.5% | 9,280 | 19,698 | 7,349 | 3,187 | 1,411 | 10,418 | 1,893 | — | 1,287 | 45,243 | 59.0% | ||
| Strangford | DUP | DUP | Jim Shannon | 15,559 | 40.0% | 5,131 | 2,793 | 15,559 | 10,428 | 3,941 | 1,783 | 3,143 | 413 | 849 | 38,060 | 52.2% | ||
| Upper Bann | DUP | DUP | Carla Lockhart | 21,642 | 45.7% | 7,406 | 14,236 | 21,642 | 6,322 | 3,662 | 1,496 | — | — | — | 47,125 | 58.0% | ||
| West Tyrone | SF | SF | Órfhlaith Begley | 22,711 | 52.0% | 15,917 | 22,711 | 6,794 | 2,287 | 2,683 | 5,821 | 2,530 | — | 869 | 42,826 | 59.0% | ||
| All constituencies | 210,891 | 172,058 | 117,191 | 94,779 | 86,861 | 48,685 | 23,485 | 26,051 | 778,710 | 57.1% | ||||||||
| 27.1% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 100.0% | ||||||||||
| Seats | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | ||||||||||
| 39% | 28% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 11% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||||||||
Seats by affiliate share
[edit]Analysis
[edit]Sinn Féin became the largest Northern Ireland party in the House of Commons for the first time, following similar success in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Sinn Féin defended their seven seats with an increased majority in each, South Down, Belfast North and especially Fermanagh and South Tyrone are less marginal than they were in 2019. Sinn Féin also came very close to gaining East Londonderry, Kathleen McGurk was the runner-up just 179 votes behind the DUP. Sinn Féin also narrowed the SDLP's majority in Foyle.
The DUP won five seats, three less than in 2019, this was the lowest number of DUP MPs since 2001 and since the DUP became the largest unionist party. The DUP lost Lagan Valley to Alliance, South Antrim to the UUP and North Antrim to the TUV. The loss of North Antrim by just 450 votes is particularly notable, the DUP had held this seat for its entire existence, and between them Ian Paisley and Ian Paisley Jr had represented this constituency for 54 years since 1970. The majorities of Sammy Wilson in East Antrim and especially Gregory Campbell in East Londonderry, were significantly reduced, both were narrowly held against challenges from Alliance by 1,306 votes and Sinn Féin by 179 votes respectively. A more positive result for the DUP was the re-election of new leader Gavin Robinson in Belfast East with a slightly increased majority, the DUP also held Strangford and Upper Bann.
The SDLP held their two seats. In Foyle SDLP leader Colum Eastwood's majority was reduced from 17,110 to 4,166, mainly due to lower turnout although there was a swing to Sinn Féin. Claire Hanna was also re-elected to the new Belfast South and Mid Down constituency with a slightly reduced majority of 12,506, this is now the fifth safest seat in Northern Ireland after Sinn Féin's four safest seats. Outside of these two constituencies the SDLP vote mainly decreased, with Belfast West a notable exception. The SDLP was the runner-up in South Down and Newry and Armagh, both were previously SDLP held seats but are increasingly safe for Sinn Féin.
Alliance remains the third largest party in Northern Ireland in terms of vote share, as it was in the 2022 Assembly election and 2023 local election. Alliance gained Lagan Valley from the DUP, with Sorcha Eastwood becoming the third directly elected Alliance MP. Alliance also lost North Down, with independent unionist Alex Easton gaining from Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry, the party leader Naomi Long also lost in Belfast East, Long was the previous MP for Belfast East from 2010 to 2015. Alliance came a particularly close second in East Antrim, and was also runner-up in Strangford and in Belfast South and Mid Down for the first time since 1987. In other constituencies the Alliance vote was generally down slightly from their peak in 2019, but higher than any previous elections.
The UUP gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time since 2015, with the election of Robin Swann in South Antrim, Swann achieved the highest majority in South Antrim since 1997 (7,512). The UUP was runner-up in one other constituency, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which the party had last won in 2015, although Diana Armstrong was the sole unionist candidate the increase in the Sinn Féin vote ensured the seat remained a Sinn Féin hold. As with Alliance, the UUP's second best prospect in this election was East Antrim, fewer than 2,000 votes separated the top three candidates.
The TUV gained a seat in the House of Commons for the first time, with Jim Allister gaining North Antrim from the DUP by 450 votes. Beyond North Antrim the TUV's strongest constituencies were East Londonderry, East Antrim and Strangford. The other MP elected in Northern Ireland was independent unionist Alex Easton in North Down who gained the seat from Alliance, Easton left the DUP in 2021 and he is the fourth North Down MP to have been elected either as an independent or with a smaller unionist party after leaving the DUP or UUP.
See also
[edit]
- Elections in Northern Ireland
- Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in England
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in Scotland
- 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
- List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election
Notes
[edit]- ^ "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
- ^ As "Party leader in the North"
- ^ She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
- ^ The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?".[32]
- ^ Stood down in March 2024.
References
[edit]- ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
- ^ a b Hughes, Brendan (28 June 2023). "Belfast constituency to be renamed under election boundary changes". Belfast Live. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
- ^ "Boundaries of five Northern Ireland constituencies to change". BBC News. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 5 November 2023.
- ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
- ^ Michael Palmer (24 November 2023). "Unionist Pacts: Deal or No Deal?". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ David McCann (24 November 2023). "Slugger TV talks with Doug Beatte". Slugger O'Toole. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ "TUV says unionists must have anti-protocol candidates to vote for in next Westminster election". The Irish News. 12 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ "North Down Orangemen call for rival unionist parties to drop their own candidates and agree on a single contender in a bid to oust Stephen Farry as MP". Newsletter. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
- ^ "Alliance select Stephen Farry to stand for re-election in North Down". Northern Ireland Elects. 26 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
- ^ "UUP: Iraq veteran Col Tim Collins to run in North Down". BBC News. 24 January 2024. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ "Easton to Stand". County Down Spectator. 25 April 2024. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
- ^ "Alliance: We can take Jeffrey Donaldson's Lagan Valley seat". Belfast Telegraph. 21 October 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 26 May 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Fein 'on course to hit new general election high': new poll". Belfast Telegraph. 13 November 2023. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
- ^ "Iraq War veteran standing for UUP as he sets sights on Stephen Farry's Westminster seat". Belfast Telegraph. 24 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 24 January 2024.
- ^ "Robin Swann lined up for South Antrim election bid". 26 January 2024. Retrieved 26 January 2024.
- ^ "NI relations with Westminster have never been worse, claims UUP deputy as he confirms election bid". Belfast Telegraph. 27 January 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 27 January 2024.
- ^ "TUV conference: Jim Allister announces partnership with Reform UK". BBC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
- ^ "TUV and Reform UK to support Alex Easton in North Down". Belfast Telegraph. 24 May 2024.
- ^ NVTV, Northern Visions (25 April 2024). Slugger TV - 26th April 2024. Retrieved 26 April 2024 – via Vimeo.
- ^ "Ulster Unionists select Jay Basra as Westminster candidate for Mid Ulster". Northern Ireland Elects. 7 May 2024. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
- ^ "UUP leader Doug Beattie condemns social media 'abuse' aimed at Mid Ulster election candidate". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 13 May 2024. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 14 May 2024.
- ^ Pepper, Diarmuid (1 July 2024). "Alliance confident of taking Westminster seat Jeffrey Donaldson has held for almost three decades". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
- ^ McCambridge, Jonathan (2 July 2024). "Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson facing more sex offence charges". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
- ^ "Open candidate information for UK elections". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
- ^ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ "LucidTalk pre NI Westminster Election Poll 3 (of 3)". Retrieved 16 October 2024.
- ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 17 June 2024. Retrieved 17 June 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Latest poll suggests DUP support down by a third since 2019". Belfast Telegraph. 25 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
- ^ Manley, John (11 March 2024). "Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 13 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
- ^ Manley, John (13 November 2023). "Sinn Féin on course to break Westminster record". The Irish News. Archived from the original on 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
- ^ "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Questionnaire CAWI (online)" (PDF). ARK - Access Research Knowledge. p. 58. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 June 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
- ^ "General Election Prediction". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 7 June 2024. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
- ^ "General Election Forecast". Bunker Consulting Group. Archived from the original on 7 July 2024. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ "General Election Forecast". Retrieved 15 July 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy not seeking re-election". BBC News. 13 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
- ^ "Sinn Féin MP Mickey Brady not seeking re-election". BBC News. 19 February 2024. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
- ^ "Donaldson solicitor confirms MP will not contest election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
- ^ "Representing the people of Midlands-North-West my sole focus – Gildernew". Sinn Féin. 23 May 2024.
- ^ "Results of the 2019 General Election in Northern Ireland". bbc.co.uk. Archived from the original on 13 December 2019. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
- ^ Among others, includes 20,913 for Independent Unionist Alex Easton in North Down, and 624 for "Cross-Community Labour Alternative" in Fermanagh & South Tyrone