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2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales

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Main article: 2015 United Kingdom general election

2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales
← 2010 7 May 2015 2017 →
All 40 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party
 
Leader Ed Miliband David Cameron
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 25 September 2010 6 December 2005
Last election 26 seats, 36.2% 8 seats, 26.1%
Seats won 25 11
Seat change Decrease1 Increase3
Popular vote 552,473 408,213
Percentage 36.9% 27.2%
Swing Increase0.6% Increase1.1%
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Leanne Wood Nick Clegg
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 16 March 2012 18 December 2007
Last election 3 seats, 11.3% 3 seats, 20.1%
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Steady Decrease2
Popular vote 181,704 97,783
Percentage 12.1% 6.5%
Swing Increase0.8% Decrease13.6%
Results of the 2015 election in Wales

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales was held on 7 May 2015 and all 40 seats in Wales were contested.[1][2] The election for each seat was conducted on the basis of first-past-the-post.

Despite the Labour party winning the most votes in Wales, the Conservatives won across the UK.[3]

Results overview

[edit]

A full list of the results in Wales can be found in the House of Commons Library General Elections Online.[2] The following is an overall table of results for Wales by the BBC.[4]

Party Seats Votes
Total Gains Losses Net +/- % seats Total % Change
Labour 25 1 2 Decrease1 62.5 552,473 36.9 Increase0.6
Conservative 11 3 0 Increase3 27.5 407,813 27.2 Increase1.1
UKIP 0 0 0 Steady — 204,330 13.6 Increase11.2
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0 Steady 7.5 181,704 12.1 Increase0.8
Liberal Democrats 1 0 2 Decrease2 2.5 97,783 6.5 Decrease13.6
Green 0 0 0 Steady — 38,344 2.6 Increase2.1
Socialist Labour 0 0 0 Steady — 3,481 0.2 Increase0.2
TUSC 0 0 0 Steady — 1,780 0.1 Increase0.1
  Others 0 0 0 Steady — 10,355 0.7 Decrease0.5
Total 40 1,498,063
Popular vote
Labour
 
 36.87%
Conservative
 
 27.22%
UKIP
 
 13.64%
Plaid Cymru
 
 12.13%
Liberal Democrats
 
 6.53%
Greens
 
 2.56%
Other
 
 1.05%
Parliament seats
Labour
 
 62.50%
Conservative
 
 27.50%
Plaid Cymru
 
 7.50%
Liberal Democrats
 
 2.50%

Turnout statistics

[edit]
Election turnout statistics source and comment
Estimated total population of Wales 3.1M [5] data for 30 June 2015
Total eligible electorate 2.281M 1[6]
electorate as proportion of total population 74%
Total valid votes 1.498M 1[7]
Mean turnout based on total valid votes 65.67%
Mean as average of constituency results 65.64%
Mean as above but based on ballot box turnout 65.77% 1 ballot box turnout includes rejected ballots[7]
Median valid vote turnout 65.0% turnout midway between 20th and 21st constituency
UK median valid vote turnout 66.7% [8] for comparison with above

1 valid vote, count of rejected ballots and total electorate come from the source(s) given in 'Table of results by constituency' below.

Results by constituency

[edit]
Table of results by constituency
Constituency 1 Total electorate 2 Winning party Majority Source(s)
Aberavon 49,821 Welsh Labour hold 10,445 [9]
Aberconwy 45,525 Welsh Conservatives hold 3,999 [10]
Alyn and Deeside 62,016 Welsh Labour hold 3,343 [11]
Arfon 40,492 Plaid Cymru hold 3,668 [12][13]
Blaenau Gwent 51,335 Welsh Labour hold 12,703 [14]
Brecon and Radnorshire 54,441 Welsh Conservatives gain 5,102 [15][16]
Bridgend 59,998 Welsh Labour hold 1,927 [17]
Caerphilly 63,603 Welsh Labour hold 10,073 [18]
Cardiff Central 57,456 Welsh Labour gain 4,981 [19]
Cardiff North 67,196 Welsh Conservatives hold 2,137 [20]
Cardiff South and Penarth 76,006 Labour Co-operative Party hold 7,453 [21]
Cardiff West 66,762 Welsh Labour hold 6,789 [22]
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 55,605 Plaid Cymru hold 5,599 [23][24]
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 57,777[25] Welsh Conservatives hold 6,054 [26]
Ceredigion 54,243 Welsh Liberal Democrats hold 3,067 [27]
Clwyd South 54,996 Welsh Labour hold 2,402 [28]
Clwyd West 58,644 Welsh Conservatives hold 6,730 [29]
Cynon Valley 51,422 Welsh Labour hold 9,406 [30]
Delyn 53,639 Welsh Labour hold 2,930 [31]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 44,394 Plaid Cymru hold 5,261 [12][32]
Gower 61,820 Welsh Conservatives gain 27 [33]
Islwyn 55,697 Labour Co-operative Party hold 10,404 [34]
Llanelli 59,796 Welsh Labour hold 7,095 [35][36]
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 61,716 Welsh Labour hold 11,513 [37]
Monmouth 62,248 Welsh Conservatives hold 10,982 [38]
Montgomeryshire 48,690 Welsh Conservatives hold 5,325 [15][39]
Neath 56,097 Welsh Labour hold 9,546 [9]
Newport East 56,015 Welsh Labour hold 4,705 [40][41]
Newport West 62,137 Welsh Labour hold 3,510 [40][42]
Ogmore 55,320[43] Welsh Labour hold 13,043 [17]
Pontypridd 58,940 Welsh Labour hold 8,985 [30]
Preseli Pembrokeshire 57,371[25] Welsh Conservatives hold 4,969 [26]
Rhondda 51,811 Welsh Labour hold 7,455 [30]
Swansea East 58,011 Welsh Labour hold 12,028 [33]
Swansea West 58,776 Welsh Labour 3 hold 7,036 [33]
Torfaen 61,896 Welsh Labour hold 8,169 [44]
Vale of Clwyd 56,505 Welsh Conservatives gain 237 [45]
Vale of Glamorgan 72,187 Welsh Conservatives hold 6,880 [46]
Wrexham 50,992 Welsh Labour hold 1,831 [47]
Ynys Môn 49,939 Welsh Labour hold 229 [48][49]

1 The information on the winning party and the majority come from the source(s) indicated.
2 The total electorate comes from[2] unless another reference is given.
3 The MP is a Labour Co-op Party member[50] but he was nominated as 'Welsh Labour'.[51]

Target seats

[edit]

Labour

[edit]

Conservative

[edit]

Plaid Cymru

[edit]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

Plaid

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Green

Others

Lead
16 April 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 April 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 March 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 March 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014 2014 European Parliament elections
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/University of Cardiff 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21–24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 21%
3 May 2012 2012 Welsh local elections
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 2011 Welsh Assembly election
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General election results 1,466,690 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Election 2015 – Wales". BBC News. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  2. ^ a b c "May 2015 results for Wales". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Archived from the original on 17 August 2016. Retrieved 2 September 2015.
  3. ^ "UK Election Statistics: 1918-2022, A Long Century of Elections" (PDF). House of Commons Library. p. 22.
  4. ^ "Results of the 2015 General Election in Wales – Election 2015 – BBC News". BBC News. Retrieved 3 January 2016.
  5. ^ "Population of Wales 2014". Overview of the UK Population. UK Office of National Statistics. 25 June 2015. Retrieved 18 September 2015.
  6. ^ "eligible voters". Who is eligible to vote at a UK general election?. The Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 19 April 2014. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  7. ^ a b "Voter turnout". Electoral data. The Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  8. ^ "Ranked list of constituencies by turnout". General Elections Online. House of Commons Library. Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  9. ^ a b "Aberavon and Neath Results" (PDF). UK Parliamentary Elections May 2015 results. Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 October 2015. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  10. ^ "Aberconwy Result" (PDF). Election Results. Conwy County Borough Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  11. ^ "Alyn and Deeside result". Election Results For Alyn And Deeside. Flintshire County Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  12. ^ a b "Gwynedd Council results". Parliamentary Election results – 7 May 2015. Gwynedd Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  13. ^ rejected ballots 95 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  14. ^ "Blaenau Gwent result". Blaenau Gwent Parliamentary Constituency Election 2015. Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council. Archived from the original on 8 July 2015. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  15. ^ a b "Powys election results". 2015 General Election results. Powys County Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  16. ^ rejected ballots 71 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  17. ^ a b "Bridgend and Ogmore results". Elections. Bridgend County Borough Council. Archived from the original on 23 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  18. ^ "Caerphilly result". General Election 2015 – Results for Caerphilly constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  19. ^ "Cardiff Central result". Election results for Cardiff Central. City of Cardiff Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  20. ^ "Cardiff North result". Election results for Cardiff North. City of Cardiff Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  21. ^ "Cardiff South and Penarth result". Election results for Cardiff South and Penarth. City of Cardiff Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  22. ^ "Cardiff West result". Election results for Cardiff West. City of Cardiff Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  23. ^ "Carmarthen East result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Archived from the original on 26 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  24. ^ rejected ballots 61 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  25. ^ a b email from Pembrokeshire County Council 14Jul15
  26. ^ a b "Pembrokeshire results". Election Results. Pembrokeshire County Council. Archived from the original on 18 December 2011. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  27. ^ "Ceredigion result". UK Parliamentary General Election 2015. Ceredigion County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  28. ^ "Clwyd South result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  29. ^ "Clwyd West result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Conwy County Borough Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  30. ^ a b c "Rhondda Cynon Taf". Parliamentary General Elections 2015. Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council. Archived from the original on 25 September 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  31. ^ "Delyn result". Election Results For Delyn. Flintshire County Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  32. ^ rejected ballots 65 email from Gwynedd Council 3Jun15
  33. ^ a b c "Swansea results". Results – UK Parliamentary general election 2015. City and County of Swansea. Archived from the original on 1 October 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  34. ^ "Islwyn result". General Election 2015 – Results for Islwyn constituency. Caerphilly County Borough Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  35. ^ "Llanelli result". The Newsroom. Carmarthenshire County Council. Archived from the original on 1 October 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  36. ^ rejected ballots 40 email from Carmarthenshire County Council 27Jul15
  37. ^ "Merthyr result". Election results for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney. Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  38. ^ "Monmouth result" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Monmouthshire County Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  39. ^ rejected ballots 54 email from Powys County Council 15Jul15
  40. ^ a b "Newport results". General Election 7 May 2015. Newport City Council. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  41. ^ rejected ballots 70 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  42. ^ rejected ballots 76 email from Newport City Council 4Sep15
  43. ^ email from Bridgend County Borough Council 29Jun15
  44. ^ "Torfaen result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Torfaen County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  45. ^ "Vale of Clwyd result". Election results for Vale of Clwyd. Denbighshire County Council. April 2013. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  46. ^ "Vale of Glamorgan result" (PDF). Statement of Results. Vale of Glamorgan Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  47. ^ "Wrexham result" (PDF). DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL. Wrexham County Borough Council. Retrieved 20 September 2015.
  48. ^ "Election results for Ynys Môn". Election results for Ynys Môn. Isle of Anglesey Count Council. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  49. ^ "Formal Result for Ynys Môn" (PDF). Declaration of Result of Poll. Isle of Anglesey County Council. Retrieved 16 September 2015.
  50. ^ "Co-op Party MPs". Members of Parliament. The Co-operative Party. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  51. ^ "Swansea Persons Nominated". Notices (UK parliamentary general election 2015). City and County of Swansea. Archived from the original on 5 October 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
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