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Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election

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In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%.[1]

Polling Aggregations

[edit]

The following table displays the most recent aggregations of polling results from different organisations

Vote Share

[edit]
Poll Aggregator/Link Last
Update 		United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Lead
Politico 31 Oct 32 35 10 9 12 3
ewybory.eu 1 Nov 31 32.4 9.2 8 11.5 1.3

Pollster bias

[edit]

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:

Pollster Alleged bias Source
Research Partner The company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling. [2][3]
CBOS The institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years. [4][5]

Graphical summary

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Poll results

[edit]

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2024

[edit]
For events during the year, see 2024 in Poland.
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Together Confederation There is One Poland Nonpartisan Local Government Activists Others Don't know Lead
CBOS 4–6 Nov 1,000 25 34 5 7 3 12 1 14 9
27 Oct Left Together leaves The Left alliance and joins the opposition.
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 1,000 28.9 33.6 10.4 8.8 10.7 7.6 4.7
IBRiS / "Rz" 25–26 Oct 1,069 29.6 31.3 9.8 8.6 9.4 11.2 1.7
CBOS 21–24 Oct 1,000 29 33 8 7 11 1 11 4
Opinia24 / TVN24 15–18 Oct 1,001 32.4 33.3 7.9 8.8 12.2 0.4 5.0 0.9
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 11–14 Oct 1,000 31.3 30.7 9.3 7.3 9.8 11.5 0.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 11–13 Oct 1,000 33.3 33.5 10.1 7.8 9.5 0.0 5.8 0.2
CBOS 7–10 Oct 871 28 29 8 8 13 1 14 1
Opinia24 / "GW" 7–9 Oct 1,000 33.5 35.3 7.1 5.9 12.5 3.7 1.8
Pollster / SE.pl 5–6 Oct 1,007 31.40 31.94 10.69 8.72 13.69 3.56 0.54
Pollster / "19:30" 29–30 Sep 1,047 31.90 33.99 10.51 9.92 12.44 1.24 2.09
United Surveys / WP.pl 27–29 Sep 1,000 29.5 34.1 11.1 8.7 10.5 0.6 5.5 4.6
IBRiS / "Rz" 27–28 Sep 1,067 32.9 33.1 10.1 7.4 9.1 1.0 6.4 0.2
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–21 Sep 1,000 31.0 34.2 10.5 8.7 8.4 0.0 7.2 3.2
Research Partner 13–16 Sep 1,040 30.0 30.0 9.1 8.8 10.7 2.6 8.8 Tie
CBOS 9–12 Sep 1,000 29 32 9 8 11 1 10 3
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 9–10 Sep 1,000 32.1 32.9 10.8 8.4 9.3 6.5 0.8
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Sep 1,061 31.64 32.24 8.82 10.21 12.61 4.48 0.60
Pollster / SE.pl 25.65 30.86 8.59 10.13 11.65 13.12[a] 5.21
Opinia24 3–5 Sep 1,000 30.8 31.3 10.5 9.1 12.3 0.7 5.3 0.5
Social Changes / wPolsce24 30 Aug–2 Sep 1,190 33 34 11 9 11 1
United Surveys / WP.pl 30 Aug–1 Sep 1,000 32.4 34.6 9.7 8.0 8.6 1.3 5.4 2.2
IBRiS / "Rz" 30–31 Aug 1,067 31.9 33.5 11.0 7.7 8.1 7.8 1.6
CBOS 26–29 Aug 1,000 28 32 6 9 16 1 9 4
Pollster / "SE.pl" 8 Aug 1,001 31.62 31.48 10.06 9.13 13.95 3.76 0.14
30.41 31.16 10.47[b] 9.03 14.43 4.50 0.75
Opinia24 5–8 Aug 1,000 27.8 33.9 11.4 8.2 12.4 1.4 4.9 6.1
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul 1,100 28.3 33.0 10.9 9.9 9.6 1.9 6.4 4.7
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Jul 1,100 29.0 32.1 10.5 8.7 11.9 0.4 7.4 3.1
Research Partner 19–22 Jul 1,040 28.9 30.7 8.6 8.3 12.0 2.5 1.2 7.8 1.8
CBOS 8–11 Jul 1,000 28 31 9 11 12 0 9 3
Opinia24 8–11 Jul 1,000 27.1 31.4 11.6 9.0 13.8 2.4 4.6 4.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 8–9 Jul 1,028 33.31 35.06 9.21 9.0 13.30 0.21 1.75
United Surveys / WP.pl 5–8 Jul 1,000 27.2 31.2 9.0 7.7 11.0 0.0 13.9 4.0
CBOS 1–3 Jul 1,000 28 31 10 8 14 0 10 3
CBOS 24–27 Jun 1,000 30 32 11 9 11 1 6 2
United Surveys / WP.pl 21–23 Jun 1,000 33.7 34.4 10.8 6.2 11.9 0.5 2.5 0.7
IBRiS / "Rz" 21–22 Jun 1,067 32.7 34.0 9.2 6.3 10.8 0.4 6.6 1.3
IBRiS / Onet 18–19 Jun 1,100 32.1 33.8 8.7 6.9 9.0 0.3 9.2 1.7
Opinia24 10–11 Jun 1,001 28.8 33.2 7.6 8.1 11.5 0.6 3.5 0.7 6.2 4.4
European Parliament election 9 Jun 11,761,994 36.16 37.06 6.91 6.30 12.08 0.93 0.56 0.90
IBRiS 3 Jun 1,067 31.3 33.1 11.6 8.2 9.0 0.2 6.6 1.8
Opinia24 27–28 May 1,001 29.8 29.7 11.2 8.3 11.6 1.0 3.6 0.5 4.3 0.1
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 May 1,068 30.3 31.8 12.7 8.9 7.0 0 9.3 1.5
CBOS 20–23 May 1,000 30 30 9 9 9 1 13 Tie
Pollster / "SE.pl" 19 May 1,031 32.49 32.15 10.87 9.33 9.46 3.16 2.54 0.34
Opinia24 13–14 May 1,000 30.1 32.5 13.3 7.0 12.1 1.7 3.3 2.4
Research Partner 10–13 May 1,051 31.5 29.7 11.4 9.1 9.1 1.5 0.5 7.2 1.8
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 May 1,000 33.3 32.0 11.6 9.0 9.8 0.1 4.2 1.3
CBOS 22–26 Apr 1,000 26 28 11 7 14 2 12 2
United Surveys / WP.pl 19–21 Apr 1,000 32.1 32.6 12.1 8.6 7.6 7.0 0.5
IBRiS / "Rz" 19–20 Apr 1,071 31.4 28.9 13.5 8.8 8.2 3.7 5.7 2.5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 18–19 Apr 1,074 32.77 32.31 11.17 9.23 9.64 1.75 2.89 0.24 0.4
CBOS 8–11 Apr 1,000 23 35 10 5 14 2 11 12
Opinia24 8–9 Apr 1,000 26.4 33.8 11.8 6.6 8.5 2.0 4.5 0.6 5.8 7.4
Local elections 7 Apr 14,417,065 34.27 30.59 14.25 6.32 7.23 3.01 4.33 3.68
OGB 3–5 Apr 1,000 34.75 33.34 13.02 4.47 10.38 1.76 2.28 1.41
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 1,068 29.0 30.5 11.8 9.5 8.4 1.9 8.9 1.5
Opinia24 2-3 Apr – 29.1 36.0 14.7 8.3 10.4 1.5 6.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Mar 1,067 30.0 31.9 10.7 9.5 8.6 9.3 1.9
CBOS 18–22 Mar 1,000 24 29 9 8 13 1 17 5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 16–17 Mar 1,072 32.02 30.81 13.57 9.19 9.88 1.34 2.79 0.40 1.21
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 1,088 29.1 30.2 9.0 8.5 8.0 2.4 12.8 1.1
Opinia24 6–7 Mar 1,000 24.6 32.8 14.2 9.3 10.1 1.3 2.3 0.7 4.7 8.2
CBOS 4–7 Mar 1,000 23 29 12 9 11 2 13 6
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl 1–6 Mar 1,001 27 32 15 10 10 6[c] 5
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 1,000 30 29 13 6 12 2 3 1 4 1
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb 1,000 28.2 32.6 15.2 8.5 9.1 1.1 5.3 4.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 Feb 1,071 30.1 32.6 14.7 8.7 7.6 6.3 2.5
CBOS 19–22 Feb 1,000 22 29 15 7 11 2 14 7
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 1,034 30.85 31.17 17.07 8.20 8.06 2.23 1.74 0.68 0.32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 1,000 32.98 34.20 15.25 4.89 9.36 0.79 2.53 1.22
CBOS 12–15 Feb 1,000 24 29 11 8 11 2 15 5
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 1,081 30.1 29.8 13.6 9.3 6.8 1.6 1.1 7.7 0.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 11 Feb 1,060 30.31 32.32 14.78 9.01 8.77 1.79 1.94 1.08 2.01
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb 1,000 29.0 31.7 15.3 10.2 8.0 0.0 5.8 2.7
Opinia24 6–7 Feb 1,001 24.0 31.0 16.8 9.1 8.7 2.2 1.5 1.1 5.7 7.0
31 Jan President Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal.
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jan 1,000 28.3 28.2 18.9 9.6 7.6 1.0 6.4 0.1
CBOS 22–26 Jan 1,000 24 29 14 9 11 5 9 5
Research Partner 19–22 Jan 1,119 30.3 30.1 13.5 10.1 6.7 2.2 1.1 6.0 0.2
Pollster / "SE.pl" 13–14 Jan 1,048 32.78 31.69 16.79 7.85 7.89 1.50 1.28 0.22 1.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl" 12–14 Jan 1,000 28.4 27.5 16.9 10.4 6.8 1.5 8.5 0.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 1,067 33.9 30.2 16.9 9.3 6.3 0.5 2.9 3.7
CBOS 8–12 Jan 1,000 29 29 10 7 10 4 12 Tie
Opinia24 8–9 Jan 1,002 26.3 24.3 17.3 9.4 10.9 0.9 1.7 0.3 8.9 2.0
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 1,000 34.2 32.0 14.1 8.8 5.0 0.9 5.0 2.2
2023 parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 21,596,674[6][d] 35.38 30.70 14.40 8.61 7.16 1.63 1.86 0.22 4.68

2023

[edit]
For events during the year, see 2023 in Poland.
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland Others Don't know Lead
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec 1,033 33.15 31.28 16.95 8.37 6.73 1.46 1.74 0.32 1.87
United Surveys / WP.pl 15–17 Dec 1,000 33.0 28.4 19.1 8.7 7.7 0.8 2.3 4.6
CBOS 2–8 Dec 1,000 30 25 13 9 9 3 12 5
IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1–8 Dec 1,507 31 26 15 10 7 3 5 5
Opinia24 5–6 Dec 29.2 24.7 17.3 8.0 8.0 1.7 1.2 0.3 9.6 4.5
United Surveys / WP.pl 1–3 Dec 1,000 35.2 28.8 16.0 10.0 7.7 2.3 6.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 1–2 Dec 1,071 31.5 27.0 17.6[e] 9.3 9.0 1.8 3.8 4.5
CBOS 20–24 Nov 821 29 24 13 8 8 5 13 5
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov 1,000 31.3 26.7 14.4 10.4 9.1 2.2 5.9 4.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl 10–13 Nov 1,081 33 32 14 9 9 2 1 1
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Nov 1,014 35.34 30.77 16.68 6.90 7.01 1.36 1.75 0.19 4.57
United Surveys / WP.pl 3–5 Nov 1,000 33.2 30.4 16.1 8.5 6.0 0.3 5.5 2.8
IBRiS / "Rz" 3–5 Nov 1,071 32.6 29.2 15.4[f] 9.1 7.0 1.1 5.6 3.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Oct 1,000 32.8 29.9 18.7 5.4 6.5 3.5 3.2 2.9
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 21,596,674[6][d] 35.38 30.70 14.40 8.61 7.16 1.86 1.63 0.22 4.68

Seat projection

[edit]

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork
Period 		Sample Size United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation German Minority Majority KO+TD KO+L+TD
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 2024 1,000 155 184 43 33 44 1 Hung -3 30
Opinia24 / "GW" 7–9 Oct 2024 1,000 188 185 23 10 54 0 Hung -22 -12
Research Partner 13–16 Sep 2024 1,040 179 164 36 33 48 0 Hung -30 3
United Surveys / WP.pl 30 Aug–1 Sep 2024 1,000 174 188 38 28 31 1 Hung -4 24
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul 2024 1,000 153 183 46 40 38 0 Hung –1 39
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Jul 2024 1,100 165 169 45 28 53 0 Hung –16 12
Research Partner 19–22 Jul 2024 1,040 174 168 34 28 56 0 Hung –28 0
IBRiS / Onet 18–19 Jun 2024 1,100 186 183 33 20 38 0 Hung –14 6
IBRiS 3 Jun 2024 1,067 179 174 48 25 34 0 Hung –8 17
Opinia24 13–14 May 1,000 168 163 60 18 51 0 Hung –7 11
Research Partner 10–13 May 1,051 180 156 51 33 39 1 Hung –23 10
United Surveys / WP.pl 19-21 Apr 2024 1,000 173 176 53 32 25 0 Hung –1 31
OGB 3–5 Apr 2024 1,000 189 175 53 0 42 1 Hung –2 –2
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 2024 1,068 165 175 52 38 30 0 Hung –3 35
IBSP / Stan Polityki 11 Mar 2024 1,000 166 166 75 17 36 0 Hung 11 28
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 2024 1,088 180 170 42 35 33 0 Hung –18 17
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 2024 1,000 176 157 63 12 52 0 Hung –10 2
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 2024 1,034 169 156 80 26 29 0 Hung 6 32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 2024 1,000 178 173 69 0 39 1 Hung 12 12
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 2024 1,081 176 159 66 40 19 1 Hung –5 35
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 2024 1,000 177 155 78 34 16 0 Hung 3 37
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 2024 1,000 194 166 67 29 4 0 Hung 3 32
Parliamentary election[6] 15 Oct 2023 21,596,674 [6][d] 194 157 65 26 18 0 Hung –8 18

Senate Seat projection

[edit]

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/Link Fieldwork
Period 		Sample Size Senate Pact United Right Confederation Majority
Civic Coalition Polish Coalition Poland 2050 The Left SP Ind
Research Partner 19–22 Jul 2024 1,040 70 30 0 20
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 2024 1,081 74 26 0 24
Parliamentary election[6] 15 Oct 2023 21,402,998 [6][g] 66 34 0 16

Government approval ratings

[edit]

President Andrzej Duda

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Don't know/Neutral Net approval
3–13 Oct 2024 CBOS 1,025 43 46 11 –3
27–28 Sep 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 44.1 39.3 16.6 4.8
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 941 44 47 9 –3
Aug 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 41.0 48.6 10.4 –7.6
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 939 43 48 9 –5
24–25 Jul 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 40.3 49.1 10.5 –8.8
4–14 Jul 2024 CBOS 1,076 47 47 6 Tie
20 May–2 Jun 2024 CBOS 1,038 42 49 9 –7
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 44.5 45.3 9.8 –0.8
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079 44 49 7 –5
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 39.7 51.4 8.9 –11.7
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 50 39 11 11
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 44 45 11 –1
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 40.9 50.6 8.5 –9.7
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 40 52 –12
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,015 46 42 4
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,015 43 49 8 –6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Neither Don't know/Neutral Net approval
11–12 Oct 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,071 39.3 52.5 8.3 –13.2
27–28 Sep 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 45.6 44.3 10.1 1.3
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 941 38 50 12 –12
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 939 35 53 13 –18
24–25 Jul 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 42.9 42.4 14.6 0.5
7–9 Jun 2024 United Surveys / DGP, RMF 1,000 34.5 32.5 32.2 0.9 2.0
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 45.0 49.0 5.7 –4.0
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079 41 48 11 –7
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet – 39.2 51.4 9.3 –12.2
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 44 43 13 1
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 46 41 13 5
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,100 37.6 46.0 16.4 –8.4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 43 47 10 –4
Morning Consult 52 38 14

Government

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Approve Disapprove Neither Don't know Net approval Notes
Oct 2024 United Surveys / DGP, RMF – 38.1 32.5 27.6 1.8 5.6 Tusk's government
11–12 Oct 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,071 42.8 53.4 3.8 –10.6
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 941 35 38 23 4 –3
10–20 Sep 2024 IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1,504 27 39 34 –12 Government of KO, TD and The Left
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 939 32 40 25 3 –8
10–12 May 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,000 50.1 46.2 3.7 3.9 Tusk's government
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079 35 37 25 3 –2 Tusk's government
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,089 37 38 22 3 –1 Tusk's government
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994 41 34 22 3 7 Tusk's government
12–14 Jan 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,000 54.5 40.3 5.2 14.2 Tusk's government
12–13 Jan 2024 IBRIS / RZ 1,067 56.3 36.9 6.8 19.4 Tusk's government

Government actions regarding 2024 floods

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Polling firm/Link Sample size Question wording Positively Negatively Don't know/Neutral Net approval
29–30 Sep 2024 Pollster / "19:30" 1,047 How do you assess the government's action during the floods? 48 40 12 8
Sep 2024 UCE Research / Onet – Is the government doing a good job of tackling the extreme flooding in southern Poland? 44.7 42.8 12.5 1.9
20–21 Sep 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,000 How do you assess the government's actions regarding the flood and removing its effects? 53.3 38.2 8.5 15.1

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ hypothetical party of Andrzej Duda – 9.20
  2. ^ Poland 2050 – 8.80, Polish People's Party – 1.67
  3. ^ Sovereign Poland – 4
  4. ^ a b c Turnout: 74.38%
  5. ^ Poland 2050 – 10.3, Polish People's Party – 7.3
  6. ^ Polish People's Party – 7.8, Poland 2050 – 7.6
  7. ^ Turnout: 74.31%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
  2. ^ "Test".
  3. ^ "Test".
  4. ^ https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
  5. ^ "Test".
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.
[edit]
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