Next Dutch general election
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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in March 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives, although they may be held at an earlier date if snap elections are called.
Background
[edit]The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representaties for the first time and then formed a coalition with People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024.
Electoral system
[edit]Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[2][3]
Opinion polls
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).
Seats
[edit]There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
PVV | GL–PvdA | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verian | 25–28 Oct 2024 | 1,604 | 39 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | [4] |
| Ipsos I&O | 18–21 Oct 2024 | 2,143 | 38 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | [5] |
| Peil.nl | 12 Oct 2024 | – | 37 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | [6] |
| Peil.nl | 28 Sep 2024 | – | 40 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | [7] |
| Ipsos I&O | 20–23 Sep 2024 | 1,950 | 41 | 25 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | [8] |
| Verian | 20–23 Sep 2024 | 1,607 | 41 | 27 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | [9] |
| Ipsos I&O | 13–16 Sep 2024 | 2,208 | 42 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 18 | [10] |
| Peil.nl | 14 Sep 2024 | 5,000+ | 38 | 26 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | [11] |
| Verian | 23–26 Aug 2024 | 1,594 | 39 | 27 | 23 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | [12] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jul 2024 | 1,016 | 40 | 27 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | [13] |
| Peil.nl | 5–6 Jul 2024 | – | 38 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | [14] |
| The Schoof cabinet is sworn in | |||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 28–29 Jun 2024 | – | 41 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | [15] |
| Ipsos | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 1,017 | 44 | 27 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 | [16] |
| I&O Research | 14–17 Jun 2024 | 1,979 | 42 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 | [17] |
| 2024 European Parliament election in the Netherlands | |||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 5–6 Jun 2024 | – | 43 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | [18] |
| Peil.nl | 31 May – 1 Jun 2024 | – | 42 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | [19] |
| Ipsos | 24–27 May 2024 | 2,048 | 48 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | [20] |
| I&O Research | 17–21 May 2024 | 2,141 | 46 | 26 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | [21] |
| Peil.nl | 17–18 May 2024 | – | 45 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | [22] |
| I&O Research | 9–12 May 2024 | 1,839 | 47 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | [23] |
| Peil.nl | 3–4 May 2024 | – | 46 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 | [24] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Apr 2024 | 1,011 | 45 | 23 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | [25] |
| Peil.nl | 19 Apr 2024 | 8,500 | 50 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 | [26] |
| Ipsos | 22–25 Mar 2024 | 1,016 | 49 | 24 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | [27] |
| Peil.nl | 22 Mar 2024 | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | [28] |
| Peil.nl | 8 Mar 2024 | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | [28] |
| Ipsos | 23–26 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 49 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | [29] |
| I&O Research | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 2,752 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 | [30] |
| Peil.nl | 9 Feb 2024 | 6,000 | 52 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | [31] |
| Peil.nl | 2–3 Feb 2024 | 4,500+ | 50 | 25 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [32] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jan 2024 | 1,025 | 45 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | [33] |
| Peil.nl | 19–20 Jan 2024 | 5,500+ | 49 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [34] |
| Peil.nl | 22 Dec 2023 | – | 48 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [35] |
| Ipsos | 15–18 Dec 2023 | 1,052 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [36] |
| Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader[37] | |||||||||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 8–11 Dec 2023 | 2,952 | 43 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20 | [38] |
| Peil.nl | 1–2 Dec 2023 | – | 42 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | [39] |
| 2023 election | 22 Nov 2023 | – | 37 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
Vote share
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
PVV | GL–PvdA | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Others | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos I&O | 18–21 Oct 2024 | 2,143 | 24.8% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | – | 8.1% | [5] |
| Ipsos I&O | 20–23 Sep 2024 | 1,950 | 25.9% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | – | 9.8% | [8] |
| Ipsos I&O | 13–16 Sep 2024 | 2,208 | 27.0% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | – | 11.3% | [10] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jul 2024 | 1,016 | 25.8% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 8.5% | [40] |
| Ipsos | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 1,017 | 27.7% | 17.3% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 10.4% | [41] |
| I&O Research | 14–17 Jun 2024 | 1,979 | 27.3% | 17.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 9.7% | [17] |
| Peil.nl | 5–6 Jun 2024 | – | 26.7% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 10.7% | [42] |
| Ipsos | 24–27 May 2024 | 2,048 | 30.5% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 15.3% | [43] |
| I&O Research | 17–21 May 2024 | 2,141 | 29.6% | 16.6% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 14.0% | [21] |
| I&O Research | 9–12 May 2024 | 1,839 | 30.0% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 14.5% | [23] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Apr 2024 | 1,011 | 28.7% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 14.0% | [44] |
| Ipsos | 22–25 Mar 2024 | 1,016 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 15.5% | [45] |
| Ipsos | 23–26 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 15.2% | [46] |
| I&O Research | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 2,752 | 31.0% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 14.5% | [30] |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jan 2024 | 1,025 | 28.4% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 12.4% | [47] |
| Ipsos | 15–18 Dec 2023 | 1,052 | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 16.0% | [48] |
| I&O Research | 8–11 Dec 2023 | 2,952 | 27.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 12.8% | [30] |
| 2023 election | 22 Nov 2023 | – | 23.49% | 15.75% | 15.14% | 12.88% | 6.29% | 4.65% | 3.31% | 3.15% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.23% | 2.08% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 0.68% | 1.88% | 7.74% |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Zetelverdeling over partijen". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
- ^ Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
- ^ "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
- ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (29 October 2024). "Iets minder vertrouwen in Geert Wilders na asieldeal kabinet, weinig verschuivingen in zetelpeiling" [Slightly less confidence in Geert Wilders after the cabinet's asylum deal, few shifts in seat polls]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 29 October 2024.
- ^ a b Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (23 October 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 25 October 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (13 October 2024). "Electorale dynamiek/dynamiet" [Electoral dynamics/dynamite]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 October 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (28 September 2024). "Electorale patstelling na Algemene Beschouwingen" [Electoral stalemate after General Considerations]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 30 September 2024.
- ^ a b Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (27 September 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 27 September 2024.
- ^ "NSC verliest fors in zetelpeiling, veel kiezers willen andere rol voor Pieter Omtzigt". EenVandaag (in Dutch). 24 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
- ^ a b "Afnemend enthousiasme kabinet Schoof heeft nog geen electorale consequenties" [Decreasing enthusiasm in cabinet Schoof has no electoral consequences yet]. Ipsos I&O. 17 September 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (15 September 2024). "Oordeel over regering na het regeerprogamma" [Judgement over government after government program]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 September 2024.
- ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (27 August 2024). "Coalitie op 77 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, verlies komt vooral door teleurstelling in NSC" [Coalition at 77 seats in new seat poll, loss results mostly from disappointment with NSC]. EenVandaag.
- ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (30 July 2024). "PVV daalt verder in zetelpeiling na installatie van het nieuwe kabinet, CDA wint" [PVV drops further in seat poll after installation of new cabinet, CDA wins]. EenVandaag.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Na het spraakmakende debat over de regeringsverklaring – Peilingen" (in Dutch). Retrieved 6 July 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (29 June 2024). "De peiling voor het bordes". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ Kester, Jeroen (25 June 2024). "PVV verliest in nieuwe zetelpeiling na bekendmaking ministers, GroenLinks-PvdA in de plus". EenVandaag.
- ^ a b Kanne, Peter (22 June 2024). "Enthousiasme over nieuw kabinet afgenomen". Ipsos I&O.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (1 June 2024). "Reactie op Schoof als Premier". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ "PVV wint na hoofdlijnenakkoord in zetelpeiling, geen effect bij andere partijen". EenVandaag. 28 May 2024.
- ^ a b "Kiezers voorzichtig hoopvol over nieuw kabinet". Ipsos I&O. 23 May 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (18 May 2024). "De electorale reacties op het hoofdlijnen-akkoord". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ a b "Weinig vertrouwen in welslagen formatie". Ipsos I&O. 15 May 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (4 May 2024). "Winst PVV neemt iets af". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (21 April 2024). "Electorale formatie obstipatie". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ "Kiezers formerende partijen oneens over financiën, NSC weet verloren stemmers niet terug te halen in nieuwe zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 26 March 2024.
- ^ a b Hond, Maurice de (23 March 2024). "Twee derde hoopt dat formatie succesvol verloopt".
- ^ "NSC met 11 zetels op dieptepunt in zetelpeiling, kiezers willen dat Omtzigt alsnog meewerkt aan rechtse coalitie". EenVandaag. 27 February 2024.
- ^ a b c Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 February 2024). "Politieke peiling februari 2024" (PDF). Ipsos I&O.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (11 February 2024). "NSC en Omtzigt zakken fors terug na breuk".
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (3 February 2024). "PVV 50 zetels, NSC zakt langzaam weg".
- ^ "Helft vindt dat formatie te traag gaat, PVV blijft ondertussen met afstand grootste partij in zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 30 January 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (20 January 2024). "Historische peiling: PVV 4 keer zo groot als de VVD".
- ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Recordscores PVV en VVD – Peilingen".
- ^ "PVV stijgt verder door naar historische 47 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, VVD hard onderuit". EenVandaag. 19 December 2023.
- ^ "Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader". NU.nl (in Dutch). 13 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ^ "I&O-zetelpeiling: groei PVV zet door". I&O Research. 14 December 2023.
- ^ "Enorme electorale schommelingen na de verkiezingen". 2 December 2023.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 31". Ipsos. 31 July 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 26". Ipsos. 27 June 2024.
- ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 22". Ipsos. 30 May 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 13". Ipsos. 27 March 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 9". Ipsos. 28 February 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 5". Ipsos. 31 January 2024.
- ^ "Politieke barometer week 51". Ipsos. 21 December 2023.
