Next Aragonese regional election
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The next Aragonese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. If customary practice is maintained, the election will be held on Sunday, 23 May 2027, simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Cortes of Aragon are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province does not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][2]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency is entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| 35 | Zaragoza |
| 18 | Huesca |
| 14 | Teruel |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[3]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Cortes of Aragon expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree shall be published in the BOA no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 27 June 2027.[1][2][4]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[5]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group in the Cortes of Aragon | PP | 28 | 28 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 23 | 23 | ||
| Vox Parliamentary Group in Aragon | Vox | 7 | 7 | ||
| Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group | CHA | 3 | 3 | ||
| Aragon–Teruel Exists Parliamentary Group | TE | 3 | 3 | ||
| Mixed Parliamentary Group | Podemos | 1 | 3 | ||
| IU | 1 | ||||
| PAR | 1 | ||||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2][4]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
.jpg)
|
Jorge Azcón | Conservatism Christian democracy |
35.51% | 28 | 
|
||
| PSOE | List |
|
TBD | Social democracy | 29.55% | 23 | 
|
[6] | |
| Vox | List
|
.jpg)
|
Alejandro Nolasco | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
11.25% | 7 |
|
||
| CHA | List
|
.jpg)
|
José Luis Soro | Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism |
5.10% | 3 |
|
||
| Existe | List
|
.jpg)
|
Tomás Guitarte | Localism Ruralism |
4.96% | 3 |
|
||
| Podemos–AV | List
|
|
TBD | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
4.02% | 1 |
|
[7] | |
| IU | List
|
.jpg)
|
Álvaro Sanz | Socialism Communism |
3.13% | 1 |
|
||
| PAR | List
|
.jpg)
|
Alberto Izquierdo | Regionalism Centrism |
2.09% | 1 |
|
||
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
Existe | 
|
|
|
|
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 1] | 1–6 Oct 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 39.9 33 |
29.7 24 |
9.0 6 |
4.0 1 |
4.2 3 |
2.0 0 |
2.5 0 |
1.4 0 |
2.7 0 |
– | 10.2 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 2] | 15–18 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 68.9 | 40.8 32 |
30.4 23 |
8.9 6 |
5.2 3 |
3.9 2 |
2.6 0 |
3.6 1 |
1.4 0 |
– | – | 10.4 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 3] | 12–15 Jul 2024 | 1,600 | 68.1 | 40.6 30 |
35.1 26 |
9.8 6 |
5.5 3 |
2.7 2 |
0.9 0 |
1.1 0 |
2.4 0 |
– | – | 5.5 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 4] | 12–13 Jul 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 37.4 31 |
31.6 26 |
10.1 7 |
4.1 1 |
4.1 2 |
– | – | – | – | – | 5.4 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 51.1 | 37.1 (28) |
30.3 (23) |
11.5 (8) |
[a] | 2.9 (1) |
3.1 (1) |
[a] | – | 5.1 (3) |
5.1 (3) |
6.8 |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 5] | 10–16 Apr 2024 | 2,400 | 68.6 | 40.2 31 |
30.7 23 |
12.0 8 |
5.4 3 |
2.7 2 |
1.7 0 |
2.6 0 |
1.0 0 |
– | – | 9.5 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 70.7 | 36.3 (26) |
31.1 (23) |
14.6 (9) |
[a] | 2.9 (2) |
[a] | [a] | – | 12.3 (7) |
– | 5.2 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 66.5 | 35.5 28 |
29.6 23 |
11.2 7 |
5.1 3 |
5.0 3 |
4.0 1 |
3.1 1 |
2.1 1 |
– | – | 5.9 |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "El PP, en máximos históricos en Aragón: Azcón está a 1 solo escaño de la mayoría absoluta y Chueca la tiene en Zaragoza". El Español (in Spanish). 12 October 2024.
- ^ "El PP superaría su tope histórico de 2011 en Aragón y estaría a dos escaños de la absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 August 2024.
- ^ "El bipartidismo sigue al alza en Aragón tras la ruptura de Vox y la crisis de la izquierda". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 21 July 2024.
- ^ "El PP amplía su mayoría en Aragón pero Vox no pierde escaños y conserva la llave del Gobierno regional". OKDiario (in Spanish). 15 July 2024.
- ^ "El PP lograría un resultado histórico en Aragón con 31 diputados y el PSOE mantendría los 23". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2024.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
- ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Cortes of Aragon (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 April 2024.
- ^ Gascón Tella, Raúl (6 June 2023). "Lambán seguirá al frente del PSOE hasta 2025 pero no liderará la oposición a Azcón". Aragón Digital (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 August 2024.
- ^ "Maru Díaz deja de ser Coordinadora de Podemos en Aragón ante el "nefasto" resultado del 28M y renuncia a ser diputada". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 8 June 2023. Retrieved 5 August 2024.
 Elections in Aragon | |
|---|---|
| Regional elections | |
| General elections | |
| European Parliament elections | |
| Local elections | |