Next Castilian-Leonese regional election
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All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León 41 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castile and León | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Castilian-Leonese regional election will be held no later than Saturday, 21 March 2026, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 81 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. The electoral calendar of Castile and León was altered as a result of the 2022 snap election, meaning the election will be held in a date different from that of the regularly scheduled May regional and elections in 2023.
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Cortes of Castile and León are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]
All members of the Cortes of Castile and León are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[1][4]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency is entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
|---|---|
| 15 | Valladolid |
| 13 | León |
| 11 | Burgos |
| 10 | Salamanca |
| 7 | Ávila, Palencia, Zamora |
| 6 | Segovia |
| 5 | Soria |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 13 February 2022, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 13 February 2026. The election decree shall be published in the BOCYL no later than 20 January 2026, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 21 March 2026.[1][4][6]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[7]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 31 | 31 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 28 | 28 | ||
| Vox Castile and León Parliamentary Group | Vox | 13 | 13 | ||
| Leonese People's Union– Soria Now! Group |
UPL | 3 | 6 | ||
| SY | 3 | ||||
| Mixed Group | Podemos | 1 | 3 | ||
| XAV | 1 | ||||
| IzqEsp | 1[c] | ||||
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
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|
Alfonso Fernández Mañueco | Conservatism Christian democracy |
31.40% | 31 | 
|
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| PSOE | List |
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Luis Tudanca | Social democracy | 30.02% | 28 | 
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| Vox | List
|
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Juan García-Gallardo | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
17.64% | 13 |
|
[9] | |
| Podemos– IU–AV |
List
|
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|
Pablo Fernández | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
5.11% | 1 |
|
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| CS | List |
|
TBD | Liberalism | 4.50% | 1 |
|
[8] | |
| UPL | List
|
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|
Luis Mariano Santos | Regionalism Autonomism |
4.28% | 3 |
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| EV–SY | List
|
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Ángel Ceña | Localism Ruralism |
3.21% | 3 |
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| XAV | List
|
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Pedro Pascual | Regionalism | 1.14% | 1 |
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Opinion polls
[edit]The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
 
|
|
UPL | 
|
|
|
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC Report/La Razón[p 1] | 15–18 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 59.7 | 42.1 41/43 |
29.3 25/27 |
12.7 7/9 |
– | 0.5 0 |
4.6 3/4 |
1.4 2 |
1.0 0/1 |
3.3 1 |
– | 12.8 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 2] | 15–17 Jul 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 42.3 41 |
30.8 26 |
9.3 8 |
3.2 0 |
1.2 0 |
4.4 3 |
1.2 2 |
1.0 1 |
– | – | 11.5 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 51.5 | 44.6 (46) |
30.5 (28) |
10.5 (7) |
2.4 (0) |
0.8 (0) |
– | 0.6 (0) |
– | 2.9 (0) |
4.0 (0) |
14.1 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] | 26 Aug–26 Sep 2023 | 1,375 | ? | 40.4 37 |
36.1 32 |
8.6 4 |
6.7 2 |
4.8 1 |
2.7 2 |
1.1 2 |
0.8 1 |
– | – | 4.3 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | — | 69.4 | 41.5 (39) |
32.3 (28) |
13.8 (9) |
[d] | – | 1.6 (1) |
0.7 (1) |
0.5 (0) |
7.0 (3) |
– | 9.2 |
| 2023 Spanish local elections | 28 May 2023 | — | 68.0 | 40.0 | 31.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 1.4 | – | – | 8.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] | 14 Dec–17 Jan 2023 | 741 | ? | 35.1 32 |
31.8 32 |
12.0 9 |
5.5 2 |
5.8 1 |
3.6 2 |
1.2 2 |
1.0 1 |
– | – | 3.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5] | 14 Sep–29 Oct 2022 | 587 | ? | 33.6 31 |
32.0 31 |
13.5 11 |
5.4 2 |
5.6 1 |
3.6 2 |
1.2 2 |
1.0 1 |
– | – | 1.6 |
| 2022 regional election | 13 Feb 2022 | — | 58.8 | 31.4 31 |
30.0 28 |
17.6 13 |
5.1 1 |
4.5 1 |
4.3 3 |
3.2 3 |
1.1 1 |
– | – | 1.4 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ UPL does not field candidates outside of León (13 seats), Salamanca (10 seats) and Zamora (7 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
- ^ XAV does not field candidates outside of Ávila (7 seats) and Valladolid (15 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
- ^ Francisco Igea, former CS legislator.[8]
- ^ Within Sumar.
References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "Vuelco electoral de Mañueco, que lleva al PP a la mayoría absoluta en Castilla y León". La Razón (in Spanish). 29 July 2024.
- ^ "El Partido Popular obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Castilla y León tras la ruptura con Vox". OKDiario (in Spanish). 18 July 2024.
- ^ "ElectoPanel Castilla y León: PP y Vox perderían hoy la Junta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 September 2023.
- ^ "EP Castilla y León (17E): bajada de Vox, que pierde dos procuradores". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 January 2023.
- ^ "EP (Castilla y León 31oct): PP y PSOE en empate técnico, baja Vox. La derecha mantiene la mayoría, muy ajustada". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 October 2022.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León (Organic Law 14) (in Spanish). 30 November 2007. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
- ^ a b c Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León (Law 3) (in Spanish). 30 March 1987. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
- ^ "El Parlamento. Legislaturas anteriores. XI Legislatura". Cortes of Castile and León (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2022.
- ^ a b Hurtado, Julio (28 September 2023). "Ciudadanos expulsa a Francisco Igea y le exige que devuelva su acta en Castilla y León". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 September 2023.
- ^ González, Miguel (12 July 2024). "PP y Vox consuman su ruptura en los gobiernos autonómicos con la salida de altos cargos del partido ultra". El País (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 12 July 2024.
