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Next Catalan regional election

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Next Catalan regional election
← 2024 No later than 26 June 2028
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Salvador Illa Carles Puigdemont TBD
Party PSC–PSOE Cat–Junts+ ERC
Leader since 30 December 2020 21 March 2024 TBD
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona TBD
Last election 42 seats, 28.0% 35 seats, 21.6% 20 seats, 13.7%
Current seats 42 35 20
Seats needed Green arrow up26 Green arrow up33 Green arrow up48
 
Leader Alejandro Fernández Ignacio Garriga Jéssica Albiach
Party PP Vox Comuns Sumar
Leader since 10 November 2018 10 August 2020 18 September 2018
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 15 seats, 11.0% 11 seats, 8.0% 6 seats, 5.8%
Current seats 15 11 6
Seats needed Green arrow up53 Green arrow up57 Green arrow up62
 
Leader Laia Estrada Sílvia Orriols
Party CUP–DT Aliança.cat
Leader since 25 March 2024 28 October 2020
Leader's seat Barcelona Girona
Last election 4 seats, 4.1% 2 seats, 3.8%
Current seats 4 2
Seats needed Green arrow up64 Green arrow up66
Incumbent President

Salvador Illa
PSC



The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Monday, 26 June 2028, to elect the 16th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

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Electoral system

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The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.[a] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[1][2]

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[3]

Election date

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The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The regional president is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 12 May 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 12 May 2028. The election is required to be called no later than 27 April 2028, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 26 June 2028.[1]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialists' and United to Advance
Parliamentary Group 		PSC 41 42
Els Units 1
Together's Parliamentary Group JxCat 34 35
DC 1
Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group ERC 20 20
People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group PP 15 15
Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia Vox 11 11
Commons Parliamentary Group CatComú 6 6
Mixed Group CUP 4 6
Aliança.cat 2

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSC–PSOE
List
 Salvador Illa Social democracy 27.96% 42 checkY
Cat–Junts+
List
 Carles Puigdemont Catalan independence
Sovereigntism
Populism 		21.59% 35 ☒N
ERC
List
 TBD Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy 		13.66% 20 ☒N [5]
PP
List
 Alejandro Fernández Conservatism
Christian democracy 		11.00% 15 ☒N
Vox
List
 Ignacio Garriga Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		7.95% 11 ☒N
Comuns
Sumar
List
 Jéssica Albiach Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Eco-socialism 		5.84% 6 ☒N
CUP–DT
List
 Laia Estrada Catalan independence
Anti-capitalism
Socialism 		4.09% 4 ☒N
Aliança.cat
List
 Sílvia Orriols Catalan independence
Anti-immigration 		3.77% 2 ☒N

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSC Junts ERC PP Vox CUP Aliança.cat Podem SALF Lead
NC Report/La Razón[p 1] 5–12 Jul 2024 1,000 56.5 29.5
44/45 		22.4
35/36 		11.1
15/16 		11.9
15/16 		6.8
9 		4.1
3 		3.7
3 		4.0
5 		2.2
2 		2.1
2 		7.5
GESOP/CEO[p 2] 10 Jun–8 Jul 2024 2,000 ? 28.0–
32.0
39/45 		19.0–
23.0
31/36 		13.0–
16.0
19/24 		10.0–
13.0
13/18 		6.0–
8.0
7/11 		5.0–
7.0
5/8 		3.0–
5.0
1/6 		2.0–
4.0
1/4 		– – 9.0
Hamalgama Métrica/VozPópuli[p 3] 1–4 Jul 2024 1,000 ? 29.4
44 		22.8
36 		11.6
17 		11.7
16 		8.3
11 		5.0
5 		3.6
3 		3.9
3 		– – 6.6
Demoscopia y Servicios/The Objective[p 4] 22–24 Jun 2024 1,000 ? 28.8
43 		22.7
36 		11.9
17 		11.7
16 		6.6
10 		5.1
5 		3.5
3 		4.0
5 		– – 6.1
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 5] 9–13 Jun 2024 1,150 ? 30.9
43 		23.4
36 		11.2
16 		12.2
15 		8.0
11 		5.1
5 		3.5
3 		4.5
6 		– – 7.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 6] 8–10 Jun 2024 1,000 54.4 29.3
44/45 		21.8
34/35 		11.5
17/18 		11.5
15/16 		7.6
10/11 		5.4
5 		3.8
4 		4.1
2/3 		– 2.4
0/2 		7.5
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 43.5 30.6
(46) 		18.0
(30) 		14.8
(23) 		13.8
(20) 		6.2
(8) 		4.3
(4) 		– – 4.6
(4) 		2.8
(0) 		12.6
2024 regional election 12 May 2024 — 55.3 28.0
42 		21.6
35 		13.7
20 		11.0
15 		8.0
11 		5.8
6 		4.1
4 		3.8
2 		– – 6.4

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Predicted President

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The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Notes

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  1. ^ Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PSC y Aliança Catalana, los dos grandes beneficiados si hay repetición electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 July 2024.
  2. ^ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2024" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 18 July 2024.
  3. ^ "[A] Cataluña. Encuesta Hamalgama Métrica 08/07/2024: PSC 29,4% (44), Cat-Junts+ 22,8% (36), PP 11,7% (16), ERC 11,6% (17), Vox 8,3% (11), Comuns Sumar 5,0% (5), Aliança.cat 3,9% (3), CUP-DT 3,6% (3)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 8 July 2024.
  4. ^ "La caída de ERC en otras elecciones catalanas dejaría a Illa sin tripartito y en manos de PP y Vox". The Objective (in Spanish). 28 June 2024.
  5. ^ "La repetición electoral mantiene la ingobernabilidad catalana y descalabra a ERC, Comunes y la CUP". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 17 June 2024.
  6. ^ "La repetición electoral beneficia al PSC y perjudica a Esquerra: el bloque separatista seguiría hundiéndose". La Razón (in Spanish). 12 June 2024.
  7. ^ a b "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2024. Taules estadístiques" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 18 July 2024.
  8. ^ "Barómetro laSexta. Un 66% de los catalanes cree que el presidente de la Generalitat debe ser Salvador Illa". laSexta (in Spanish). 18 May 2024.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña (Organic Law 6) (in Spanish). 19 July 2006. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  2. ^ Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña (Organic Law 4) (in Spanish). 18 December 1979. Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  3. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. ^ Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  5. ^ Puente, Arturo (13 May 2024). "Aragonès anuncia que se va y deja abierta la puerta a que ERC no bloquee la investidura de Illa". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 May 2024.
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