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2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election

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2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 84 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León
43 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered2,151,993 Red arrow down0.7%
Turnout1,391,797 (64.7%)
Red arrow down2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Juan Vicente Herrera Luis Tudanca Pablo Fernández
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 16 March 2001 18 October 2014 14 February 2015
Leader's seat Burgos Burgos León
Last election 53 seats, 51.6% 29 seats, 29.7% Did not contest
Seats won 42 25 10
Seat change Red arrow down11 Red arrow down4 Green arrow up10
Popular vote 514,301 353,575 165,475
Percentage 37.7% 25.9% 12.1%
Swing Red arrow down13.9 pp Red arrow down3.7 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Luis Fuentes José Sarrión Luis Mariano Santos
Party C's IU–Equo UPL
Leader since 14 March 2015 15 February 2015 26 March 2015
Leader's seat Valladolid Valladolid León
Last election 0 seats, 0.3%[a] 1 seat, 4.9% 1 seat, 1.9%
Seats won 5 1 1
Seat change Green arrow up5 Blue arrow right0 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 139,954 56,516 19,176
Percentage 10.3% 4.1% 1.4%
Swing Green arrow up10.0 pp Red arrow down0.8 pp Red arrow down0.5 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castile and León
President before election

Juan Vicente Herrera
PP

Elected President

Juan Vicente Herrera
PP

The 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.

The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
15 Valladolid
14 León
11 Burgos, Salamanca
7 Ávila, Palencia, Segovia, Zamora
5 Soria

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[4]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 27 June 2015.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León.[6] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 53 53
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 29 29
Mixed Parliamentary Group IUCyL 1 2
UPL 1

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Juan Vicente Herrera Conservatism
Christian democracy 		51.55% 53 checkY [8]
[9]
PSOE
List
 Luis Tudanca Social democracy 29.68% 29 ☒N [10]
[11]
IU–Equo
List
 José Sarrión Socialism
Communism 		4.87% 1 ☒N [12]
UPL
List
 Luis Mariano Santos Regionalism
Autonomism 		1.86% 1 ☒N [13]
C's
List
 Luis Fuentes Liberalism 0.26%[a] 0 ☒N [14]
Podemos
List
 Pablo Fernández Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		New party ☒N [15]
[16]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Castile and León.

Results

[edit]

Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castile and León election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 514,301 37.73 –13.82 42 –11
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 353,575 25.94 –3.74 25 –4
We Can (Podemos) 165,475 12.14 New 10 +10
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 139,954 10.27 +10.01 5 +5
United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) 56,516 4.15 –0.72 1 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 19,597 1.44 –1.84 0 ±0
Leonese People's Union (UPL) 19,176 1.41 –0.45 1 ±0
Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)2 12,748 0.94 +0.19 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 9,333 0.68 New 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 7,263 0.53 +0.16 0 ±0
Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)3 5,032 0.37 +0.20 0 ±0
Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) 4,504 0.33 –0.61 0 ±0
Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) 2,445 0.18 New 0 ±0
Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) 2,380 0.17 –0.06 0 ±0
Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) 2,285 0.17 New 0 ±0
Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) 1,963 0.14 –0.13 0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 1,779 0.13 +0.02 0 ±0
Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) 1,698 0.12 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 1,408 0.10 +0.07 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) 1,374 0.10 –0.04 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 973 0.07 –0.02 0 ±0
Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) 934 0.07 New 0 ±0
National Democracy (DN) 896 0.07 –0.08 0 ±0
Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) 874 0.06 New 0 ±0
Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)4 848 0.06 –0.04 0 ±0
United Free Citizens (CILUS) 742 0.05 New 0 ±0
Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) 732 0.05 ±0.00 0 ±0
Cives (Cives) 628 0.05 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 348 0.03 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 33,274 2.44 –0.84
Total 1,363,055 84 ±0
Valid votes 1,363,055 97.93 –0.16
Invalid votes 28,742 2.07 +0.16
Votes cast / turnout 1,391,797 64.67 –2.83
Abstentions 760,196 35.33 +2.83
Registered voters 2,151,993
Sources[17][18][19]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PP
 
 37.73%
PSOE
 
 25.94%
Podemos
 
 12.14%
C's
 
 10.27%
IU–Equo
 
 4.15%
UPyD
 
 1.44%
UPL
 
 1.41%
Others
 
 4.49%
Blank ballots
 
 2.44%
Seats
PP
 
 50.00%
PSOE
 
 29.76%
Podemos
 
 11.90%
C's
 
 5.95%
IU–Equo
 
 1.19%
UPL
 
 1.19%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PP PSOE Podemos C's IU–Equo UPL
% S % S % S % S % S % S
Ávila 45.3 4 22.1 2 10.1 − 11.9 1 4.0 −
Burgos 36.5 5 24.7 3 14.2 2 12.1 1 3.9 −
León 32.1 5 27.3 5 12.6 2 8.9 1 3.4 − 7.0 1
Palencia 41.0 4 29.0 2 10.8 1 9.9 − 3.9 −
Salamanca 41.5 6 25.3 3 10.8 1 13.3 1 3.0 −
Segovia 40.0 4 27.5 2 11.3 1 9.1 − 3.6 −
Soria 36.9 3 31.2 2 12.0 − 12.1 − 2.8 −
Valladolid 35.7 7 25.0 4 13.1 2 8.9 1 6.2 1
Zamora 41.3 4 25.5 2 11.0 1 7.8 − 4.3 − 0.7 −
Total 37.7 42 25.9 25 12.1 10 10.3 5 4.1 1 1.4 1
Sources[17][18][19]

Aftermath

[edit]
Investiture
Juan Vicente Herrera (PP)
Ballot → 3 July 2015 3 July 2015
Required majority → 43 out of 84 ☒N Simple checkY
Yes
  • • PP (42)
42 / 84
42 / 84
No
37 / 84
37 / 84
Abstentions
5 / 84
5 / 84
Absentees
0 / 84
0 / 84
Sources[19]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Results for UPSa–C's in the 2011 election.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ^ "Castilla y León: Herrera remonta y seguiría cuatro años más como presidente". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Castilla y León. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
  5. ^ "El PP perdería la mayoría absoluta y el PSOE obtendría sus peores resultados". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ^ "Herrera, la "isla mínima" del PP". ABC (in Spanish). 19 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  8. ^ "El PP roza la mayoría absoluta de nuevo en Castilla y León". Salamanca RTV al día (in Spanish). 10 May 2015. Archived from the original on 11 May 2015.
  9. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Madison MK". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  10. ^ "Herrera sujeta la mayoría absoluta". Diario de Valladolid (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  11. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN, Abril 2015. Sondeo Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  12. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla y León (Estudio nº 3072. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  13. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  14. ^ "Encuesta Ical elecciones autonómicas: muchos cambios en la provincia de León". Ileón (in Spanish). 6 April 2015.
  15. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN, Marzo 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 April 2015.
  16. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  17. ^ "Castilla y León: Juan Vicente Herrera, el talismán de los populares". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  18. ^ "Castilla y León. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
  19. ^ "El PP roza las puertas de la mayoría absoluta y Podemos irrumpe como tercera fuerza en Castilla y León". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 27 February 2015.
  20. ^ "Encuesta CyL". RTVCyL (in Spanish). 27 February 2015. Archived from the original on 27 February 2015.
  21. ^ "CASTILLA Y LEÓN, Enero 2015. Sondeo Pnyx". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 February 2015.
  22. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  23. ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  24. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
  25. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 27 February 2015.
  26. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  27. ^ "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  28. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 14/2007, de 30 de noviembre, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla y León (Organic Law 14) (in Spanish). 30 November 2007. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 3/1987, de 30 de marzo, Electoral de Castilla y León (Law 3) (in Spanish). 30 March 1987. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
  4. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  6. ^ "Decreto 1/2015, de 30 de marzo, del Presidente de la Junta de Castilla y León, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla y León" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (77): 27329–27330. 31 March 2015. ISSN 0212-033X.
  7. ^ "El Parlamento. Legislaturas anteriores. VIII Legislatura". Cortes of Castile and León (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 January 2022.
  8. ^ "Juan Vicente Herrera confirma que será el candidato del PP a presidir la Junta". Tribuna Burgos (in Spanish). 12 February 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  9. ^ "Juan Vicente Herrera, candidato oficial por el PP a la presidencia de la Junta de Castilla y León". iLeón (in Spanish). Ical. 13 February 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  10. ^ S. Maeso, Antonio (5 October 2014). "El PSCyL elige a Tudanca secretario general y echa tierra sobre las heridas abiertas". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  11. ^ "Luis Tudanca: "El PSOE está más fuerte y vivo que nunca"". iLeón (in Spanish). Ical. 18 October 2014. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  12. ^ De la Calle, Isabel (15 February 2015). "José Sarrión, elegido candidato de IUCyL a la presidencia de la Junta de Castilla y León". Tribuna Burgos (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  13. ^ "Luis Mariano Santos encabeza la lista de UPL a las Cortes de Castilla y León" (in Spanish). León: Europa Press. 27 March 2015. Retrieved 24 December 2021.
  14. ^ "Luis Fuentes se convierte en el candidato regional de Ciudadanos a la Junta". Diario de Burgos (in Spanish). Valladolid. 13 March 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  15. ^ "El abogado leonés Pablo Fernández, elegido secretario general de Podemos Castilla y León". La Nueva Crónica (in Spanish). Ical. 14 February 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  16. ^ "Pablo Fernández será el candidato de Podemos a las Cortes". La Nueva Crónica (in Spanish). 1 April 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2022.
  17. ^ a b "Elections to the Cortes of Castile and León". servicios.jcyl.es (in Spanish). Junta of Castile and León. Retrieved 14 January 2018.
  18. ^ a b "Cortes of Castile and León election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castile and León. 6 July 2015. Retrieved 24 September 2017.
  19. ^ a b c "Elecciones a Cortes de Castilla y León (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 September 2017.
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