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2019 Navarrese regional election

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2019 Navarrese regional election
← 2015 26 May 2019 2023 →
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered511,225 Green arrow up2.0%
Turnout350,362 (68.5%)
Green arrow up0.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Esparza María Chivite Uxue Barkos
Party NA+ PSN–PSOE GBai
Leader since 30 November 2014 19 October 2014 3 October 2014
Last election 17 seats, 34.3%[a] 7 seats, 13.4% 9 seats, 15.8%
Seats won 20 11 9
Seat change Green arrow up3 Green arrow up4 Blue arrow right0
Popular vote 127,346 71,838 60,323
Percentage 36.6% 20.6% 17.3%
Swing Green arrow up2.3 pp Green arrow up7.2 pp Green arrow up1.5 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Bakartxo Ruiz Mikel Buil Marisa de Simón
Party EH Bildu Podemos I–E (n)
Leader since 30 May 2018 27 November 2018 9 March 2019
Last election 8 seats, 14.2% 7 seats, 13.7% 2 seats, 3.7%
Seats won 7 2 1
Seat change Red arrow down1 Red arrow down5 Red arrow down1
Popular vote 50,631 16,518 10,472
Percentage 14.5% 4.7% 3.0%
Swing Green arrow up0.3 pp Red arrow down9.0 pp Red arrow down0.7 pp
President before election

Uxue Barkos
GBai

Elected President

María Chivite
PSN–PSOE

The 2019 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Chartered Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

Ahead of the election, the three main right-from-centre parties—namely, Navarrese People's Union (UPN), the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs)—signed an electoral alliance under the Navarra Suma (NA+) brand,[1][2] in order to maximize their options against the incumbent government, formed by Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos, which in the previous election had ousted UPN from power after 19 years of uninterrupted rule. Concurrently, the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) under María Chivite was on the rise, benefitting from a national bandwagon effect for the party following the general election held only one month earlier, on 28 April.

The election saw a victory for the NA+ alliance, which was able to secure more seats than the incumbent government (20 to 19). In particular, the collapse in the Podemos's vote share benefitted the PSN–PSOE, which scored its best result since 2007. There was speculation that UPN would be able to access the regional government through an agreement or consent from the PSN, but Chivite opted instead to secure the support of GBai, Podemos and I–E, as well as EH Bildu's tactical abstention, to become the first Socialist president of Navarre since Javier Otano stepped down from the office in 1996.

Overview

[edit]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Parliament of Navarre was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Chartered Community of Navarre, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[3] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Navarrese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[4]

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.[5]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 24 May 2019. The election decree was required to be published in the BON no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 23 June 2019.[3][5][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[3]

The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the BON, setting the election date for 26 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 June.[7]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.[8][9]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group UPN 15 15
Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group Zabaltzen 8 9
EAJ/PNV 1
EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 8 8
We Can–Now Yes Parliamentary Group Orain Bai 4[b] 7
Podemos 3
Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group PSN–PSOE 7 7
Mixed Group PP 2 4
I–E (n) 2

Parties and candidates

[edit]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[5][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
NA+
List
 Javier Esparza Regionalism
Christian democracy
Conservatism
Liberalism 		34.33%[a] 17 ☒N [11]
[12]
[13]
GBai
List
 Uxue Barkos Basque nationalism
Social democracy 		15.83% 9 checkY [14]
EH Bildu
List
 Bakartxo Ruiz Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism 		14.25% 8 checkY [15]
Podemos
List
 Mikel Buil Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		13.67% 7 ☒N [16]
PSN–PSOE
List
 María Chivite Social democracy 13.37% 7 ☒N [17]
I–E (n)
List
 Marisa de Simón Socialism
Communism 		3.69% 2 checkY [18]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Results

[edit]
← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Parliament of Navarre election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Sum Navarre (NA+)1 127,346 36.57 +2.24 20 +3
Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) 71,838 20.63 +7.26 11 +4
Yes to the Future (GBai) 60,323 17.32 +1.49 9 ±0
Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) 50,631 14.54 +0.29 7 –1
We Can (Podemos) 16,518 4.74 –8.93 2 –5
Left (I–E (n)) 10,472 3.01 –0.68 1 –1
Vox (Vox) 4,546 1.31 New 0 ±0
Equo–European Green Party (Equo) 1,597 0.46 –0.18 0 ±0
Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) 1,251 0.36 –0.15 0 ±0
Navarrese Freedom (Ln) 502 0.14 –0.14 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 438 0.13 –0.13 0 ±0
Blank ballots 2,731 0.78 –1.18
Total 348,193 50 ±0
Valid votes 348,193 99.38 +0.63
Invalid votes 2,169 0.62 –0.63
Votes cast / turnout 350,362 68.53 +0.27
Abstentions 160,863 31.47 –0.27
Registered voters 511,225
Sources[8][20]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
NA+
 
 36.57%
PSN–PSOE
 
 20.63%
GBai
 
 17.32%
EH Bildu
 
 14.54%
Podemos
 
 4.74%
I–E (n)
 
 3.01%
Vox
 
 1.31%
Others
 
 1.09%
Blank ballots
 
 0.78%
Seats
NA+
 
 40.00%
PSN–PSOE
 
 22.00%
GBai
 
 18.00%
EH Bildu
 
 14.00%
Podemos
 
 4.00%
I–E (n)
 
 2.00%

Aftermath

[edit]
Further information: First government of María Chivite

Investiture processes to elect the president of the Government of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[3]

Investiture
María Chivite (PSN)
Ballot → 1 August 2019 2 August 2019
Required majority → 26 out of 50 ☒N Simple checkY
Yes
23 / 50
23 / 50
No
27 / 50
22 / 50
Abstentions
0 / 50
5 / 50
Absentees
0 / 50
0 / 50
Sources[21][22]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Results for UPN (27.44%, 15 seats), PP (3.93%, 2 seats) and C's (2.96%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
  2. ^ Laura Pérez, Carlos Couso, Rubén Velasco and Fanny Carrillo.[10]
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf Within NA+.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Within Unidas Podemos.
  5. ^ a b Within UPN.
  6. ^ a b c d Within PP.

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "#emojiPanel Navarra (24M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 24 May 2019.
  2. ^ "#emojiPanel Navarra (23M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 23 May 2019.
  3. ^ "#emojiPanel Navarra (22M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 May 2019.
  4. ^ "#emojiPanel Navarra (21M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 21 May 2019.
  5. ^ "El PSOE gana en Madrid, pero la suma de PP, Cs y Vox lo aleja de Sol". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  6. ^ "Resultados por comunidades. Encuesta mayo 2019" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2019. Retrieved 20 May 2019.
  7. ^ "Encuesta electoral: Ajustada batalla entre bloques el 26-M". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  8. ^ "Sumas complicadas para gobernar después del 26M". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  9. ^ "Sumas complicadas para gobernar después del 26M". inPactos (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.[permanent dead link]
  10. ^ "#electoPanel Navarra (20M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 May 2019.
  11. ^ "El PSOE deberá optar entre dar Navarra a los 'abertzales' o a la coalición PP-UPN-Cs". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 May 2019.
  12. ^ "Barkos lidera la mayoría de cambio, que afronta con ligera ventaja el tramo final en un escenario abierto". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 19 May 2019. Archived from the original on 29 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
  13. ^ "Barkos lidera la mayoría de cambio, que afronta con ligera ventaja el tramo final en un escenario abierto". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 19 May 2019.
  14. ^ "#electoPanel Navarra (17M): Vox e IU pasan justos como en estafeta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2019.
  15. ^ "El cuatripartito podría revalidar la mayoría en el Parlamento de Navarra". EiTB (in Spanish). 18 May 2019.
  16. ^ "#electoPanel Navarra (14M): suben Nav+ y Geroa Bai, pero ninguno da 'el chupinazo'". Electomanía (in Spanish). 14 May 2019.
  17. ^ "#electoPanel Navarra (11M): Navarra Suma, suma un escaño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 11 May 2019.
  18. ^ "El 68% avala la gestión del cambio, que se sitúa al borde de revalidar la mayoría absoluta". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 12 May 2019. Archived from the original on 12 May 2019. Retrieved 12 May 2019.
  19. ^ a b "El 68% avala la gestión del cambio, que se sitúa al borde de revalidar la mayoría absoluta". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 12 May 2019.
  20. ^ "#electoPanel Navarra (8M): subida de Geroa Bai, que iguala al PSN". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 May 2019.
  21. ^ "ElectoPanel Navarra (5M): Navarra Suma baja del 30%, sorpasos del PSN a Geroa Bai con Bildu acercándose". Electomanía (in Spanish). 5 May 2019.
  22. ^ a b "Estimaciones de voto en Comunidades Autónomas y grandes ciudades (Estudio nº 3245. Marzo-abril 2019)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 May 2019.
  23. ^ "Navarra Suma ganaría y Geroa Bai y PSN se disputan ser segundos en Navarra". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 5 May 2019.
  24. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (12A): las mayorías siguen en el aire". Electomanía (in Spanish). 12 April 2019.
  25. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómicas (3A): Ciudadanos decidirá el bloque ganador en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 3 April 2019.
  26. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico (27M). Semana de retrocesos para Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 27 March 2019.
  27. ^ "ElectoPanel Autonómico (20M): 'Navarra Suma' (PP-Cs-UPN) no suma para recuperar el Gobierno Foral". Electomanía (in Spanish). 20 March 2019.
  28. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico 13M: el PSOE es el más votado, pero la derecha suma en la mayoría de CCAA". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 March 2019.
  29. ^ "ElectoPanel autonómico: la irrupción de Vox en casi todas las CCAA posibilitaría a la derecha gobernar la mayoría de ellas". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 March 2019.
  30. ^ "Geroa Bai obtendría un fuerte ascenso y el cuatripartito reforzaría su posición". EiTB (in Spanish). 13 December 2018.
  31. ^ "El cuatripartito perdería la mayoría en el Parlamento de Navarra, con Bildu y Podemos a la baja entre los votantes". Navarra.com (in Spanish). 8 November 2018.
  32. ^ "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2018" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 14 December 2018.
  33. ^ a b "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2018" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 14 December 2018.
  34. ^ "Los partidos del cambio mantienen ventaja sobre el bloque conservador". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 16 September 2018. Archived from the original on 16 September 2018. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  35. ^ "El cambio progresista y de izquierdas mantiene su ventaja sobre el bloque conservador". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 16 September 2018.
  36. ^ "Estimación Junio 2018. Navarra. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 June 2018.
  37. ^ "NAVARRA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Junio 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 June 2018.
  38. ^ "Una encuesta interna de Geroa Bai refleja la dura caída de Podemos en Navarra ante unas elecciones". Navarra.com (in Spanish). 6 June 2018.
  39. ^ "Navarra: UPN ganaría con menos escaños y la coalición gobernante ampliaría su mayoría". EiTB (in Spanish). 6 June 2018.
  40. ^ "Estimación Marzo 2018. Navarra. Autonómicas 2019". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 19 March 2018.
  41. ^ "NAVARRA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo SyM Consulting. Marzo 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 March 2018.
  42. ^ "UPN gana, suben Geroa Bai y PSN y C's entra en el Parlamento foral". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 February 2018.
  43. ^ "UPN gana, suben Geroa Bai y PSN y C's entra en el Parlamento foral". inPactos (in Spanish). 13 February 2018.[permanent dead link]
  44. ^ "NAVARRA. Elecciones autonómicas. Sondeo Inpactos, Enero 2018". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 February 2018.
  45. ^ "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2017" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 20 December 2017.
  46. ^ a b "II Barómetro de Opinión Pública del Parlamento de Navarra. Edición 2017" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 20 December 2017.
  47. ^ "El Gobierno del cambio se reforzaría en Navarra y en Pamplona". EiTB (in Spanish). 4 June 2017.
  48. ^ "Los grupos del cambio ganan terreno". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 28 May 2017. Archived from the original on 28 May 2017. Retrieved 31 May 2017.
  49. ^ "Los grupos del cambio lograrían un escaño más que en 2015 si hoy se celebraran las elecciones". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 28 May 2017.
  50. ^ "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2016" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 6 December 2016.
  51. ^ "I Barómetro de Opinión Pública del Parlamento de Navarra. Edición 2017" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 6 December 2016.
  52. ^ "NAVARRA, Septiembre 2016. Sondeo UPNA (Navarrómetro)". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 December 2016.
  53. ^ "Barómetro de opinión pública del Parlamento de Navarra 2018" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 14 December 2018.
  54. ^ "Barómetro de opinión pública: Edición 2016" (PDF). UPNA (in Spanish). 6 December 2016.
Other
  1. ^ "Ciudadanos renuncia a sus siglas en Navarra y se presenta con UPN y el PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). 11 March 2019. Retrieved 11 March 2019.
  2. ^ "La plataforma de UPN con Ciudadanos para todas las próximas elecciones se llamará 'Navarra Suma'" (in Spanish). Navarra.com. 11 March 2019. Retrieved 11 March 2019.
  3. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 13/1982, de 10 de agosto, de reintegración y amejoramiento del Régimen Foral de Navarra (Organic Law 13) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  4. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  5. ^ a b c Ley Foral 16/1986, de 17 de noviembre, reguladora de las elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Law 16) (in Spanish). 17 December 1986. Retrieved 18 June 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  7. ^ "Decreto Foral de la Presidenta de la Comunidad Foral de Navarra 7/2019, de 1 de abril, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra". Boletín Oficial de Navarra (in Spanish) (64): 4200. 2 April 2019. ISSN 1130-5894.
  8. ^ a b "Elecciones al Parlamento de Navarra (Nafarroako Parlamentua) (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  9. ^ "Memoir 2018–2019" (PDF). www.parlamentodenavarra.es (in Spanish). Parliament of Navarre. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
  10. ^ "'Orain bai-Ahora sí', nuevo nombre registrado por los críticos para el grupo parlamentario de Podemos". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 31 May 2018. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
  11. ^ "Javier Esparza, candidato provisional de UPN a la presidencia del Gobierno foral en las próximas elecciones". Europa Press (in Spanish). 17 January 2018. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  12. ^ "UPN y PP irán juntos a las elecciones generales, al Parlamento de Navarra y a los ayuntamientos". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 2 March 2019. Retrieved 2 March 2019.
  13. ^ "Gran coalición en Navarra: UPN y Ciudadanos concurrirán juntos a todas las elecciones". El Español (in Spanish). 10 March 2019. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  14. ^ "Uxue Barkos repetirá como candidata al no presentarse más candidaturas a las primarias de Geroa Bai". Navarra.com (in Spanish). 16 September 2018. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  15. ^ "Bakartxo Ruiz será la candidata de EH Bildu en las elecciones forales de 2019". Europa Press (in Spanish). 30 May 2018. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  16. ^ "Mikel Buil será el candidato de Podemos Navarra en las elecciones autonómicas". EiTB (in Spanish). 27 November 2018. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  17. ^ "María Chivite es proclamada oficialmente candidata del PSN a la presidencia del Gobierno". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 5 May 2018. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  18. ^ "IUN ratifica la candidatura de Marisa de Simón a la Presidencia del Gobierno de Navarra". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 March 2019. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  19. ^ "Navarra Suma ganaría (18-19) y el PSN (9-10) superaría a Geroa Bai (8-9)". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 19 May 2019.
  20. ^ "2019 Parliament of Navarre election". elecciones2019.navarra.es (in Spanish). Government of Navarre. Retrieved 26 May 2019.
  21. ^ "Chivite no obtiene la mayoría absoluta necesaria para ser investida en primera votación". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 1 August 2019. Retrieved 1 August 2019.
  22. ^ "La socialista María Chivite ya es presidenta de Navarra: EH Bildu se abstiene y deja sus responsabilidades de gobierno". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 2 August 2019. Retrieved 2 August 2019.
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