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2011 Aragonese regional election

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2011 Aragonese regional election
← 2007 22 May 2011 2015 →
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,016,021 Red arrow down0.1%
Turnout689,904 (67.9%)
Green arrow up1.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Eva Almunia José Ángel Biel
Party PP PSOE PAR
Leader since 8 November 2008 10 September 2010 2 June 2000
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Teruel
Last election 23 seats, 31.1% 30 seats, 41.1% 9 seats, 12.1%
Seats won 30 22 7
Seat change Green arrow up7 Red arrow down8 Red arrow down2
Popular vote 269,729 197,189 62,193
Percentage 39.7% 29.0% 9.2%
Swing Green arrow up8.6 pp Red arrow down12.1 pp Red arrow down2.9 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Nieves Ibeas Adolfo Barrena
Party CHA IU
Leader since 12 January 2008 May 2002
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 4 seats, 8.1% 1 seat, 4.1%
Seats won 4 4
Seat change Blue arrow right0 Green arrow up3
Popular vote 55,932 41,874
Percentage 8.2% 6.2%
Swing Green arrow up0.1 pp Green arrow up2.1 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election

Marcelino Iglesias
PSOE

Elected President

Luisa Fernanda Rudi
PP

The 2011 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The outgoing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) administration suffered a serious defeat after losing nearly 30% of its 2007 vote. The opposition People's Party (PP) obtained the best result of its history in the region, though it remained four seats short for an absolute majority. This was the first time since the 1999 election that the PP had received the most votes in Aragon. United Left (IU) had its best result since 1995, gaining three seats. The Aragonese Party (PAR), on the other hand, obtained its worst historical result up until that point, while the Aragonese Union (CHA) remained static at its 2007 result.

As a result of the election, Luisa Fernanda Rudi from the People's Party was elected President of Aragon as part of a PP–PAR coalition agreement. The PAR had been previously the PSOE coalition partner from 1999 to 2011.

Overview

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Electoral system

[edit]

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Aragonese people abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]

Seats Constituencies
35 Zaragoza
18 Huesca
14 Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]

Election date

[edit]

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published in the BOA no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 26 June 2011.[1][3][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The election to the Cortes of Aragon was officially triggered on 29 March 2011 after the publication of the election decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 21 June.[4]

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of the election call.[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2011
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 30 30
People's Parliamentary Group PP 23 23
Aragonese Parliamentary Group PAR 8 8
Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group CHA 4 4
Mixed Parliamentary Group IU 1 2
INDEP 1[a]

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Eva Almunia Social democracy 41.14% 30 checkY
PP
List
 Luisa Fernanda Rudi Conservatism
Christian democracy 		31.06% 23 ☒N
PAR
List
 José Ángel Biel Regionalism
Centrism 		12.08% 9 checkY
CHA
List
 Nieves Ibeas Aragonese nationalism
Eco-socialism 		8.15% 4 ☒N
IU
List
 Adolfo Barrena Socialism
Communism 		4.08% 1 ☒N
UPyD
List
 Cristina Andreu Social liberalism
Radical centrism 		New party ☒N

Campaign

[edit]

Election debates

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2011 Aragonese regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]    NI  Not invited 
PSOE PP PAR CHA IU Audience Ref.
16 May Aragón TV Pepe Quílez P
Almunia 		P
Rudi 		NI NI NI 14.0%
(76,000) 		[9]
[10]
20 May Aragón TV Pepe Quílez P
Almunia 		P
Rudi 		P
Biel 		P
Ibeas 		P
Barrena 		N/A [11]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

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The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Predicted President

[edit]

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

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Overall

[edit]
← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Cortes of Aragon election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 269,729 39.69 +8.63 30 +7
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 197,189 29.02 –12.12 22 –8
Aragonese Party (PAR) 62,193 9.15 –2.93 7 –2
Aragonese Union (CHA) 55,932 8.23 +0.08 4 ±0
United Left of Aragon (IU) 41,874 6.16 +2.08 4 +3
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 15,667 2.31 New 0 ±0
Greens–Ecolo (V–Ecolo)1 4,621 0.68 +0.02 0 ±0
Commitment with Aragon (CCA) 3,771 0.55 New 0 ±0
Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 2,193 0.32 New 0 ±0
Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA) 980 0.14 New 0 ±0
Aragonese Land (TA) 830 0.12 New 0 ±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 603 0.09 New 0 ±0
Aragon United Citizens Party (pCUA) 573 0.08 –0.29 0 ±0
Family and Life Party (PFyV) 525 0.08 –0.08 0 ±0
Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) 482 0.07 New 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 440 0.06 –0.03 0 ±0
The Independent Voice of Aragon (L'VIA) 249 0.04 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 21,678 3.19 +0.97
Total 679,529 67 ±0
Valid votes 679,529 98.50 –0.81
Invalid votes 10,375 1.50 +0.81
Votes cast / turnout 689,904 67.90 +1.39
Abstentions 326,117 32.10 –1.39
Registered voters 1,016,021
Sources[7][12][13]
Footnotes:
  • 1 Greens–Ecolo results are compared to The Greens–Federation of Independents of Aragon totals in the 2007 election.
Popular vote
PP
 
 39.69%
PSOE
 
 29.02%
PAR
 
 9.15%
CHA
 
 8.23%
IU
 
 6.16%
UPyD
 
 2.31%
Others
 
 2.25%
Blank ballots
 
 3.19%
Seats
PP
 
 44.78%
PSOE
 
 32.84%
PAR
 
 10.45%
CHA
 
 5.97%
IU
 
 5.97%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PP PSOE PAR CHA IU
% S % S % S % S % S
Huesca 36.9 7 33.5 7 12.2 2 6.2 1 4.7 1
Teruel 37.0 6 27.4 4 16.5 3 5.1 − 6.5 1
Zaragoza 40.8 17 28.2 11 7.2 2 9.3 3 6.5 2
Total 39.7 30 29.0 22 9.2 7 8.2 4 6.2 4
Sources[12][13][7]

Aftermath

[edit]
Investiture
Luisa Fernanda Rudi (PP)
Ballot → 13 July 2011
Required majority → 34 out of 67 checkY
Yes
  • • PP (30)
  • • PAR (7)
37 / 67
No
30 / 67
Abstentions
0 / 67
Absentees
0 / 67
Sources[7]

Notes

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  1. ^ Miguel Ferrer, former PAR legislator.[8]
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP ganaría en Aragón, al 7% escrutado". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
  2. ^ "Las encuestas a pie de urna confirman el descalabro del PSOE y consolidan la mayoría absoluta en Madrid". ABC (in Spanish). 22 May 2011.
  3. ^ "El PP gana al PSOE por un solo diputado". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
  4. ^ "Cascos supera al PP en Asturias (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  5. ^ "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  6. ^ "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  7. ^ "El empate técnico entre PP y PSOE deja abierta cualquier opción". ABC (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.
  8. ^ "El PSOE pierde puntos en Aragón y Las Palmas de Gran Canaria". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 3 May 2011.
  9. ^ "Encuesta de TNS para Antena 3 y Onda Cero. Elecciones 22M. Expectativas electorales en Aragón" (PDF). TNS Demoscopia (in Spanish). 3 May 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 September 2011.
  10. ^ "Jaque mate a la coalición PSOE-PRC y a Revilla". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 May 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  11. ^ "Una encuesta de NC Report para La Razón da al PP como fuerza más votada el 22-M sin mayoría absoluta". ForoCoches (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
  12. ^ "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.[permanent dead link]
  13. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas y municipales, 2011. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón y Ciudad de Zaragoza (Estudio nº 2870. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
  14. ^ "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
  15. ^ a b c d "Las alianzas poselectorales decidirán el Gobierno aragonés". Público (in Spanish). 18 April 2011. Archived from the original on 23 April 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  16. ^ "PP y PAR suman mayoría absoluta en Aragón (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 April 2011. Retrieved 1 May 2011.
  17. ^ "PP y PSOE empatarían, pero Almunia podría gobernar con un tripartito". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 24 April 2011.
  18. ^ "El PSOE podría gobernar en Aragón con Cha e IU (Heraldo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 April 2011. Retrieved 8 April 2015.
  19. ^ "PSOE y PAR sufrirían un contundente castigo electoral el 22 de mayo". Diario Aragonés (in Spanish). 17 April 2011. Archived from the original on 20 April 2011.
  20. ^ "Pactos necesarios en Aragón (Diario Aragonés)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 18 April 2011. Archived from the original on 23 April 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  21. ^ "El PP ganaría en Aragón pero necesitaría pactar con el PAR para gobernar". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 6 February 2011.
  22. ^ "Luisa Rudi supera a Eva Almunia (Heraldo de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 February 2011. Archived from the original on 9 February 2011. Retrieved 8 April 2015.
  23. ^ "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 5 March 2011. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
  24. ^ "El PP, a un paso de la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía y Castilla La Mancha (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 26 January 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  25. ^ "Vuelco electoral en Aragón (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 5 January 2011. Archived from the original on 10 January 2011.
  26. ^ "El PP sería la primera fuerza política en Aragón (Abc)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 December 2010. Archived from the original on 20 January 2011. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
  27. ^ "El PP aragonés supera en cuatro puntos al PSOE". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 22 December 2010.
  28. ^ "El PP asigna entre 27 y 29 escaños a Rudi y hasta 23 al PSOE". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 22 December 2010.
  29. ^ "PAR y PP suman mayoría holgada en Aragón (Gobierno de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 December 2010. Archived from the original on 28 December 2010. Retrieved 4 April 2011.
  30. ^ "Eva Almunia podría formar gobierno pactando con el PAR o con CHA e IU". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 12 October 2010.
  31. ^ "El PSOE se mantendría en el gobierno aragonés (Heraldo de Aragón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 October 2010. Archived from the original on 16 October 2010. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  32. ^ "El PSOE sería la fuerza más votada si hoy se celebraran las elecciones autonómicas". PSOE (in Spanish). 5 October 2010.
  33. ^ "El PSOE seguiría siendo el partido más votado en Aragón (sondeo propio)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 October 2010. Archived from the original on 23 October 2010. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  34. ^ "Cuarta entrega de sondeos de El Mundo: Navarra, Aragón y Canarias". Electómetro (in Spanish). 2 June 2010. Archived from the original on 22 June 2010.
  35. ^ "El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones y podría elegir entre PAR y CHA-IU". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2010.
  36. ^ "El PSOE volverá a ganar en las autonómicas en Aragón según un sondeo del Heraldo". Electómetro (in Spanish). 20 March 2010. Archived from the original on 1 May 2010. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  37. ^ a b c d "El PSOE deberá decidir aliados". Público (in Spanish). 20 March 2010. Archived from the original on 23 March 2010. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  38. ^ a b "Barómetro de Opinión de Aragón Otoño 2010" (PDF). Aragón Digital (in Spanish). 22 December 2010.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Decreto de 28 de marzo de 2011, del Presidente del Gobierno de Aragón, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (75): 32717–32718. 29 March 2011. ISSN 0212-033X.
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. ^ a b c d "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  8. ^ Rajadel, Luis (29 October 2010). "El alcalde de Teruel abandona el PAR". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). Teruel. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  9. ^ "AragónTV ofrecerá el debate entre Eva Almunia y Luisa Fernanda Rudi". FórmulaTV. 15 May 2011. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
  10. ^ "76.000 espectadores vieron el debate entre Almunia y Rudi". Heraldo de Aragón. 17 May 2011. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
  11. ^ "El debate se salda sin propuestas nuevas y sin un claro ganador". El Periódico de Aragón. 21 May 2011. Retrieved 5 May 2023.
  12. ^ a b "Cortes of Aragon election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 6 June 2011. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  13. ^ a b "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2011. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
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