2027 New South Wales state election
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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next New South Wales state election will be held no earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 2027,[1] to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.
Background
[edit]At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in Opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form an initial minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents.
In the Legislative Council (the Upper House), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14.[2] The Greens won 4 seats in the Legislative Council. One Nation won 3 seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian parliament (including the federal Parliament). Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament.
Since the 2023 state election, there have been one by-election, 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, and three incoming by elections, 2024 Pittwater state by-election, 2024 Epping state by-election and the 2024 Hornsby state by-election.
Date
[edit]The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[3] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 24B, Paragraph 4 of the Constitution Act 1902 states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.” [1] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, it is highly unlikely that an election will be held on this day, given the number of citizens of New South Wales who travel or are otherwise occupied during the Easter long weekend. Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027.
Pre-election pendulum
[edit]Registered parties
[edit]Fourteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[4] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.
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Opinion polling
[edit]Voting intention
[edit]| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | L/NP | GRN | ON | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||
| 6 October 2024 | Resolve Strategic[5][g] | 32% | 37% | 11% | — | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| 6–29 August 2024 | Wolf & Smith[6][7] | 32% | 38% | 12% | — | 18% | 50% | 50% |
| 11 August 2024 | Resolve Strategic[8][h] | 30% | 38% | 12% | — | 20% | 49% | 51% |
| 16 June 2024 | Resolve Strategic[9][i] | 32% | 35% | 11% | — | 22% | 52% | 48% |
| February – May 2024 | Redbridge[10] | 35% | 40% | 11% | — | 14% | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 21 April 2024 | Resolve Strategic[11][j] | 33% | 36% | 12% | — | 19% | 52% | 48% |
| 25 February 2024 | Resolve Strategic[12][k] | 34% | 38% | 12% | — | 17% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 5 November 2023 | Resolve Strategic[13][l] | 36% | 32% | 13% | — | 19% | 57% | 43% |
| 10 September 2023 | Resolve Strategic[14][m] | 38% | 36% | 9% | — | 17% | 54% | 46% |
| 16 July 2023 | Resolve Strategic[15][n] | 41% | 32% | 10% | — | 16% | 58% | 42% |
| 14 May 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16][o] | 44% | 31% | 9% | — | 15% | 60% | 40% |
| 25 March 2023 election | 36.97% | 35.37% | 9.70% | 1.80% | 16.18% | 54.26% | 45.74% | |
Preferred Premier and satisfaction
[edit]| Date | Firm | Better Premier | Minns | Speakman | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minns | Speakman | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | ||||
| 6 October 2024 | Resolve Strategic[5] | 37% | 14% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 11 August 2024 | Resolve Strategic[8] | 38% | 13% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 16 June 2024 | Resolve Strategic[9] | 38% | 13% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| February – May 2024 | Redbridge[10] | not asked | 40% | 20% | 19% | 21% | |||
| 21 April 2024 | Resolve Strategic[11] | 37% | 16% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 25 February 2024 | Resolve Strategic[12] | 35% | 16% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 5 November 2023 | Resolve Strategic[13] | 35% | 13% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 10 September 2023 | Resolve Strategic[14] | 41% | 14% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 16 July 2023 | Resolve Strategic[15] | 39% | 12% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 14 May 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16] | 42% | 12% | not asked | not asked | ||||
| 25 March 2023 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | |||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
- ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
- ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
- ^ The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
- ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
- ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Includes two-party preferred result estimate.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
- ^ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
References
[edit]- ^ a b "Constitution Act 1902 No 32". legislation.nsw.gov.au. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
- ^ https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/ben-franklin-becomes-nsw-legislative-council-president-after-bitter-saga/news-story/bbfb569efe2744bb1e2bb243eddb9052
- ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
- ^ "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (9 October 2024). "Revealed: The NSW housing reform that has disappointed most voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
- ^ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
- ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (18 August 2024). "NSW voters back rental reforms to stop unfair evictions". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "The housing crisis has split Sydney. This is where the voters have landed". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ a b O'Doherty, James. "'Politics of grievance' on show as Chris Minns' NSW Labor government slides in the polls". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
- ^ a b Bowe, William. "Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW". Poll Bludger. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2023.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Honeymoon over as NSW Labor suffers hit to primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Majority still 'liked and respected' Berejiklian, but one-third changed minds after corrupt finding". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
- ^ a b Smith, Alexandra. "Rise in voters worried about skyrocketing rental prices adds to Minns' cost-of-living challenge". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
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