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2023 New South Wales state election

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2023 New South Wales state election
← 2019 25 March 2023 2027 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered5,521,688
Turnout4,861,148 (88.04%)
(Decrease2.96 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Fundraising function for Mr Edmond Atalla MP, State Member for Member for Mount Druitt, with then NSW Opposition Leader, Mr Chris Minns MP (cropped).jpg
CEBIT Australia - Day 2, The Hon Dominic Perrottet MP (1) (cropped) v2 b.jpg
Leader Chris Minns Dominic Perrottet No leader
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 4 June 2021 5 October 2021 N/A
Leader's seat Kogarah Epping N/A
Last election 36 seats, 33.31% 48 seats, 41.58% 3 seats, 9.57%
Seats before 36[a] 45[b] 3
Seats won 45 36 3
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 12 Steady
First-preference vote 1,738,081 1,663,215 455,960
Percentage 36.97% 35.37% 9.70%
Swing Increase 3.66 Decrease 6.21 Increase 0.13
TPP 54.26% 45.74%
TPP swing Increase 6.29 Decrease 6.29
Premier before election

Dominic Perrottet
Liberal

Subsequent Premier

Chris Minns
Labor

The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, but was defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election.

The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history.[1]

It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition.[2]

The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat that had last been achieved in 2007.[3][4]

Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. Labor however was able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper, and Joe McGirr, who guaranteed Labor confidence and supply.[5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, having previously served as a deputy speaker.[6]

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW local council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.[7]

Background

[edit]

Previous election

[edit]
See also: 2019 New South Wales state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

[edit]
See also: Members of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, 2019–2023

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier on the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[9]

On 1 October 2021 Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her relationship with the former member of Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.[10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election.[12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election.[13]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[15][16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[18]

In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrottet to portray himself as increasingly moderate.[21][22]

On 29 March 2022 the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.[23][24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.

On 20 October 2022 Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party[25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.[26]

From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition.[27]

Possibility of a hung parliament

[edit]

It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority.[28]

Campaign

[edit]

On 12 January Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.[29][30] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.[31][32] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.[33]

On 5 March 2023, the NSW Labor Party held their official campaign launch.[34]

On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day.[35]

On 11 March the Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives.[36]

On 12 March the Liberal Party held their official campaign launch.[37][38]

On 14 March confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government.[39] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.

On 21 March it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services.[40][41][42]

Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats.[43]

Policies

[edit]

In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services.[44]

Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling,[45] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots).[46][47] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW,[48] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed.[49]

One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights.[50]

NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution,[51][52] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.

Leaders' debates

[edit]

The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate.[53]

A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023.[54]

A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023.[55][56]

A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023.[57]

2023 New South Wales state election debates
Date Organizers Moderators  P  Present References
Perrottet Minns
9 February
05:30 AEDT 		2GB Radio Sydney Ben Fordham P P [58]
8 March
12:00 AEDT 		Seven News/Channel 7 Amelia Brace P P [54]
15 March
12:00 AEDT 		Nine News/Channel 9
Sydney Morning Herald 		Peter Overton P P
22 March
19:30 AEDT 		Sky News Australia
Daily Telegraph 		Kieran Gilbert P P [59]

Redistribution

[edit]
Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[60]

In November 2020 the proposed redistribution names and boundaries were released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[61]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba was abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney was created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[61]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[61]

The Liberal-held Heathcote took in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and became a notionally marginal Labor seat.[62]

Current seat 2019 election New seat 2021 redistribution
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 18.68 Kellyville Liberal Notional 23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote Labor Notional 1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 20.52 Wahroonga Liberal Notional 19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 22.42 Abolished
New seat Leppington Labor Notional 1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek Liberal Notional 9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills Liberal Notional 5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

[edit]
Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[63] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Results

[edit]
Winning party by electorate.

Legislative Assembly

[edit]
Main article: Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly)
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)[64][65][66][67]
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,738,081 36.97 +3.66 45 Increase 9
    Liberal 1,259,253 26.78 –5.21 25 Decrease 10
  National 403,962 8.59 –1.00 11 Decrease 2
Coalition total 1,663,215 35.37 –6.21 36 Decrease 12
  Greens 455,960 9.70 +0.13 3 Steady
  Sustainable Australia 104,697 2.23 +0.69 0 Steady
  One Nation 84,683 1.80 +0.70 0 Steady
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 73,359 1.56 –1.90 0 Decrease 3
  Legalise Cannabis 60,057 1.28 +1.28 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 51,548 1.10 –0.42 0 Steady
  Liberal Democrats 39,480 0.84 +0.61 0 Steady
  Informed Medical Options 11,529 0.25 +0.25 0 Steady
  Public Education 4,150 0.09 +0.09 0 Steady
  Small Business 2,025 0.04 −0.03 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 1,464 0.03 +0.00 0 Steady
  Independents 411,682 8.76 +3.98 9 Increase 6
 Formal votes 4,701,930 96.72 +0.18 – –
 Informal votes 159,218 3.28 −0.18 – –
 Total 4,861,148 – – 93 –
 Registered voters / turnout 5,521,688 88.04 −2.96 – –
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor 2,202,922 54.27 +6.29
Coalition 1,856,227 45.73 –6.29

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Italics denotes MPs who did not contest at this election.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bankstown One Nation Tania Mihailuk[c] 20.5 –0.1 to LIB 20.3 Jihad Dib Labor
Camden Liberal Peter Sidgreaves 7.3 10.3 3.0 Sally Quinnell Labor
Drummoyne Independent John Sidoti[d] 13.6 –12.6 to ALP 1.0 Stephanie Di Pasqua Liberal
East Hills Liberal Wendy Lindsay 0.1 1.8 1.7 Kylie Wilkinson Labor
Heathcote[e] Liberal Lee Evans −1.7 8.3 9.9 Maryanne Stuart Labor
Monaro National Nichole Overall 11.6 13.9 2.3 Steve Whan Labor
Parramatta Liberal Geoff Lee 6.5 15.0 8.6 Donna Davis Labor
Penrith Liberal Stuart Ayres 0.6 2.2 1.6 Karen McKeown Labor
Riverstone Liberal Kevin Conolly 6.2 9.9 3.7 Warren Kirby Labor
South Coast Liberal Shelley Hancock 10.6 14.3 3.8 Liza Butler Labor
Wakehurst Liberal Brad Hazzard 21.9 N/A 4.5 Michael Regan Independent
Wollondilly Liberal Nathaniel Smith 6.0 7.6 1.5 Judy Hannan Independent

The statewide swing against the Coalition (and the swing to Labor) was highly concentrated in Sydney (particularly in Western Sydney) and on the South Coast. The Nationals lost just one seat (Monaro) and had swings against them in several National strongholds on the Mid North Coast and in the New South Wales countryside. No seats north of the Central Coast changed hands. Both Coalition parties ran candidates in the electorates of Port Macquarie (held by National-turned-Liberal MP Leslie Williams) and Wagga Wagga (held by independent member Joe McGirr). In Port Macquarie (which is a conservative seat even by regional standards), both Coalition parties made the two-party-preferred contest and Williams was re-elected as a Liberal. In Wagga Wagga, McGirr easily defeated the Nationals in the two-party-preferred contest.

Ultimately Labor gained four seats from the Coalition (Camden, Monaro, Parramatta and South Coast) due to swings of over 10 percentage points toward Labor and one seat (Riverstone) due to a swing of over 10 points against the Coalition on first-preference votes. On two-party-preferred measures Labor received a swing against them in five of their own seats (Bankstown, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Shellharbour and Summer Hill), as well as in eight Coalition-held seats (Albury, Badgerys Creek, Bathurst, Coffs Harbour, Cootamundra, Dubbo, Myall Lakes and Upper Hunter). The swing in Liverpool was 9.0 points to the Liberals, bucking the trend set by several other Sydney seats where swings against the Liberals were close to or larger than this.

Despite winning many federal seats in Sydney in 2022, only one teal independent (Judy Hannan in Wollondilly) won a seat at this election. This is likely due to optional preferential voting in New South Wales, meaning voters only need to number one box on the ballot paper (but can choose to number more), as preferences were vital for teal successes at the federal election. However, independents not affiliated with Climate 200 did win several seats; Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan gained the seat of Wakehurst from the Liberal Party and several other independents retained their seats (including the SFF-turned-independent members for Barwon, Orange and Murray, as well as the independent members of Lake Macquarie, Sydney and Wagga Wagga). Gareth Ward, a suspended Liberal MP turned independent, successfully held on to his seat of Kiama. The seat of Drummoyne (held by fellow suspended-Liberal-turned-independent John Sidoti, who did not seek re-election) was won by the Liberal challenger Stephanie Di Pasqua, technically retaining the seat for the Coalition,[f] despite a 12.1% swing to Labor on two-party-preferred preferences.

All three seats held by the Greens were retained, although the party did not gain any seats. They did, however, finish second to Labor in Summer Hill. The seat of Balmain had a swing to Labor on two-party-preferred measures, while the Greens had swings to them in the two-party-preferred contests in their other two seats; Ballina (against the Nationals) and Newtown (against Labor).

One Nation, despite having a statewide swing to them, failed to win as many votes as predicted. However, the party finished second to Labor in Cessnock, a seat where the National Party candidate was disendorsed during the campaign for sexist and racist social media posts.[68]

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party had a statewide swing against them. While they did formerly hold three seats (Barwon, Orange and Murray), the members for these seats defected and became independents over disagreements with the party's leader, Robert Borsak.

On 8 April, two weeks after the election, Liberal Jordan Lane was declared the winner in Ryde, by just 50 votes over Labor candidate Lyndal Howison.[69] This was the last seat to be called, while also ending up as the most marginal seat post-election, sitting at just 0.01% for the Coalition. A recount was held on 15 April 2023, increasing the Liberal lead to 54 votes.[70]

Legislative Council

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2023 New South Wales state election (Legislative Council) § Results.[edit]
Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 209,858 – (CV)[71][72][73][74]
Party Votes % Swing 2023 seats 2019 seats Total seats Change
  Labor 1,690,445 36.61 +6.93 8 7 15 Increase 1
  Liberal/National joint ticket 1,374,857 29.78 –5.04 7 8 15 Decrease 2
  Greens 419,346 9.08 –0.64 2 2 4 Increase 1
  One Nation 273,496 5.92 –0.97 1 2 3 Increase 1
  Legalise Cannabis 169,482 3.67 +3.67 1 0 1 Increase 1
  Liberal Democrats 162,755 3.53 +1.35 1 0 1 Increase 1
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 144,043 3.12 –2.42 1 1 2 Steady
  Animal Justice 101,183 2.19 +0.24 0 1 1 Decrease 1
  Elizabeth Farrelly Independents 61,163 1.32 −0.51 0 0 0 Steady
  Family First 58,361 1.26 +1.26 0 0 0 Steady
  Sustainable Australia 42,902 0.93 –0.53 0 0 0 Steady
  Australia One 35,888 0.78 +0.78 0 0 0 Steady
  Public Education 34,523 0.75 +0.75 0 0 0 Steady
  Informed Medical Options 21,362 0.46 +0.46 0 0 0 Steady
  Socialist Alliance 17,056 0.37 +0.05 0 0 0 Steady
  United Australia 3,891 0.08 +0.08 0 0 0 Steady
  Revive Australia 2,507 0.05 +0.05 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Independent 1,356 0.03 +0.03 0 0 0 Steady
  Ungrouped 965 0.02 +0.02 0 0 0 Decrease 1
  Call To Freedom 722 0.02 +0.02 0 0 0 Steady
  Christians For Community 306 0.01 +0.01 0 0 0 Steady
  Socialist Equality 249 0.01 +0.01 0 0 0 Steady
 Formal votes 4,616,858 94.31 +0.66 – – – –
 Informal votes 278,477 5.69 −0.66 – – – –
Total 4,895,335 100.00 – 21 21 42 –
 Registered voters / turnout 5,521,688 88.66 −0.78 – – – –

Electoral pendulums

[edit]

Pre-election pendulum

[edit]
Main article: Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[75] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[g] NAT 0.5%[h]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall[i] NAT 11.6%[j]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND) LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND) LIB 13.6%
Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 0.1%
Leppington new seat ALP 1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB) ALP 1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 3.0%
Bega Michael Holland[k] ALP 5.1%[l]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li[m] ALP 5.2%[n]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.3%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton (IND) SFF 2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 4.9% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler (IND) SFF 6.6% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND) SFF 15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 23.2% v ALP

Post-election pendulum

[edit]

This is the post-election pendulum, based on the preliminary results of the election.[76]

Labor seats (45)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP 1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP 1.7%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP 2.3% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinell ALP 3.0%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP 3.7%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP 3.8%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP 8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP 8.6%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.7%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP 8.9%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP 9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP 10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP 11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 12.3%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 13.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 15.4%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 16.3% v GRN
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.1% v IND
Very Safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 18.3%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 18.6%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 18.7%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 19.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 19.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP 19.8%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 19.9%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP 20.3%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP 20.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 22.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 22.6%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 23.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 24.0%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 24.2%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 25.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB 0.1%[o]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB 0.4%
Pittwater Rory Amon LIB 0.7% v IND
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB 1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB 2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT 3.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 4.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB 4.8% v IND
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 5.7% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 8.0%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 9.8%
Safe
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 10.5%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 10.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB 10.8% v NAT[p]
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB 10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB 11.0%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT 12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB 12.9% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 13.2%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 13.8%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB 13.9%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT 14.3%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT 15.8%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 16.3%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.6%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 32.1%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 33.8%
Crossbench seats (12)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Kiama Gareth Ward IND 0.8% v ALP
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND 1.5% v LIB
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN 1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND 4.5% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 15.6% v ALP
Barwon Roy Butler IND 16.0% v NAT
Murray Helen Dalton IND 16.0% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND 21.9% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 22.4% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 24.1% v ALP

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
  2. ^ Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
  3. ^ Mihailuk resigned from the Labor Party in 2022, becoming an independent. She later joined One Nation to contest the Legislative Council.
  4. ^ Sidoti was sacked from the Liberal Party in 2021 and was suspended from parliament for corruption.
  5. ^ Heathcote was notionally a marginal Labor seat following a redistribution.
  6. ^ Sidoti ran and won as the Liberal nominee in 2019 before being suspended.
  7. ^ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  8. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  9. ^ Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  10. ^ While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  11. ^ Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  12. ^ The margin used in the pendulum is Labor's winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  13. ^ Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  14. ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
  15. ^ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  16. ^ At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs Labor margin is 16.7%.

Candidates and retiring MPs

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Retiring MPs.[edit]
The following members announced they would not be contesting the 2023 election:

Labor

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Labor.[edit]

Liberal

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Liberal.[edit]

Nationals

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Nationals.[edit]

Independent

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Independent.[edit]

Other

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election § Other.[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 New South Wales state election

Voting intention

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the 2019 election. Local regression trends for each party.

Primary vote

[edit]

Primary vote

Two party preferred

[edit]

Two-party preferred vote

Opinion polls

[edit]
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote[c]
LIB NAT ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH UND L/NP ALP
24 March 2023 Newspoll[104] 35%* 38% 11% — — 16% — 45.5% 54.5%
22 March 2023 Freshwater Strategy[105] 37%* 37% 10% — — 16% — 47% 53%
19 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[106] 38%* 38% 8% — — 16% — — —
10–14 March 2023 Roy Morgan[107] 34%* 34% 13% — 2% 17% — 46.5% 53.5%
24–28 February 2023 Roy Morgan[108] 32.5%* 33.5% 11% — 8.5% 14.5% — 47.5% 52.5%
28 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[109] 32%* 38% 11% — — 20% — — —
27 February 2023 Freshwater Strategy[110] 37%* 39% 10% 1% — 13% — 47% 53%
26 February 2023 Newspoll[111] 37%* 36% 12% — — 15% — 48% 52%
21 February 2023 Roy Morgan[112] 35%* 32.5% 9.5% 1.5% 6.5% 15%[d] — 48% 52%
31 January 2023 Roy Morgan[113] 33.5%* 33.5% 12% 1% 4.5% 15.5%[e] — 45% 55%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[114] 34%* 37% 12% 2% — 16% — — —
14–17 January 2023 YouGov[115] 33%* 39% 11% — — 17% — 44% 56%
20 December 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 37%* 35% 11.5% 1.5% 5% 10%[f] — 48% 52%
16 November 2022 Private polling[117][g] 33% 4% 40% 9% 1% 6% 7%[h] — — —
October 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 32%* 36.5% 9.5% 1% 5.5% 13%[i] — 43% 57%
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[118] 35%* 38% 11% 1% — 15% — — —
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[119] 36%* 37% 11% 1% — 15% — 46% 54%
September 2022 Roy Morgan[116] 34%* 34% 12.5% 1% 3.5% 15.5%[j] — 47% 53%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[120] 35%* 40% 12% — — 13% — 46% 54%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[121] 30%* 43% 10% 2% — 15% — — —
12 September 2022 Essential[122] 36.4%* 32% 8.5% — — — 13% — —
2 July 2022 Essential[123] 37%* 33% — — — — — — —
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[124] 37%* 34% 8% 2% — 19% — — —
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[125] 41%* 31% 10% 2% — 16% — — —
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[126] 41%* 30% 11% 2% — 16% — — —
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[127] 43%* 28% 12% 1% — 16% — — —
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[128] 44%* 28% 12% 4% — 12% — — —
March 2021 Redbridge[129][130][131][132] 37.0% 3.1% 23.9% 6.7% 0.8% 4.3% 5.3% 18.9% 59% 41%[133]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0% 9.6% 33.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.1% 11.0% – 52.0% 48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%* 35% 10% — — 14% — 51% 49%[k]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[134]
  1. ^ Farlow assumed the casual vacancy created by Natasha Maclaren-Jones following the election.[96]
  2. ^ Bromhead died on 16 March 2023.
  3. ^ Resolve Strategic and Essential do not calculate TPP vote.
  4. ^ "teal independents" 0.5%, Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties/independents 11.5%
  5. ^ UAP 1.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, Other parties 10.5%
  6. ^ Animal Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis 0.5%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Independents 5.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  7. ^ Polling was conducted by an unnamed industry group.
  8. ^ Includes "teal independents" at 4%
  9. ^ Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Liberal Democrats 1%, UAP 1%, Independents 8.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Other parties 1.5%
  10. ^ Animal Justice 1.5%, Legalise Cannabis 2%, Liberal Democrats 0.5%, UAP 1%, Independents 7.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  11. ^ Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Better Premier
Perrottet approval rating
Minns approval rating

Polling

[edit]
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Perrottet Minns
Perrottet Minns Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
24 March 2023 Newspoll[104] 39% 41% 44% 47% 47% 33%
22 March 2023 Freshwater Strategy[105] 46% 40% not asked not asked
21 March 2023 Essential[135] 36% 33% not asked not asked
19 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[106] 40% 34% 52% 32% 46% 26%
28 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[109] 38% 34% 45% 40% 43% 28%
27 February 2023 Freshwater Strategy[110] 46% 34% not asked not asked
26 February 2023 Newspoll[111] 43% 33% 50% 41% 41% 33%
21 February 2023 Essential[136] not asked 45% 42% 37% 26%
1–6 February 2023 SEC Newgate[137] 34% 27% not asked not asked
7 February 2023 Essential[138] not asked 51% 33% 38% 25%
24 January 2023 Essential[139] not asked 47% 36% 38% 27%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[114] 33% 29% not asked not asked
16 November 2022 Private polling[117] not asked 39% 47% 42% 27%
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[118] 30% 29% not asked not asked
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[119] 38% 41% 37% 35% 26% 15%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[120] 39% 35% 47% 41% 42% 27%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[121] 28% 28% not asked not asked
2 July 2022 Essential[123] not asked 49% 35% 39% 22%
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[124] 29% 32% not asked not asked
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[125] 34% 23% not asked not asked
20–24 October 2021 Essential[140] not asked 47% 28% not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier Berejiklian Minns Berejiklian Minns
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[126] 48% 21% not asked not asked
15–18 September 2021 Newspoll[141] not asked 56% 40% not asked
28 July 2021 Utting Research[142] not asked 56% 33% not asked
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[127] 55% 16% not asked not asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader Berejiklian McKay Berejiklian McKay
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[128] 57% 17% 50% 17% 13% 21%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[143] not asked 75% 17% not asked
28 October – 2 November 2020 Essential[144] not asked 68% 21% not asked
21–23 October 2020 Ipsos[145][146] 58% 19% 64% 16% 22% 25%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[147] not asked 67% 22% not asked
16–17 October 2020 YouGov[148] not asked 68% 26% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[149] not asked 64% 30% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[150] not asked 68% 26% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[151] not asked 69% 23% not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
23 March 2019 election – – – – – –
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[152] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[153] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[154][155] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[134]

Electoral district polling

[edit]
Date Firm Electorate Voting intention 2cp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP SFF IND OTH L/NP ALP IND
Mar 2023 Freshwater Strategy Riverstone — — — — — — — 46% 54% —
Mar 2023 Climate 200 North Shore — — — — — — — 50.7% — 49.3%
27 Feb–
2 Mar 2023 		Redbridge Group Parramatta — — — — — — — 46% 54% —
Penrith — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
27 Feb 2023 Freshwater Strategy[156] Pittwater 41% 16% 4% — — 30% 9% 52% — 48%
Jan 2023 Internal polling[157] Holsworthy — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
Londonderry — — — — — — — 49% 51% —
Penrith — — — — — — — 50% 50% —
Riverstone — — — — — — — 52% 48% —
Winston Hills — — — — — — — 45% 55% —
Mar 2023 Sky News[158][159] Goulburn 35% 33% 9% 5% 13% — — — — —
Hornsby 37% 21% — 15% — — — 58% 42% —
Leppington 32% 40% 7% 16% — — — 48% 52% —
North Shore 34% 10% 12% — — — 28% 46% — 54%
Penrith — — — — — — — 51% 49% —
Wakehurst 41% 11% 3% — — — 37% 50% — 50%
Winston Hills — — — — — — — 59% 41% —

Newspaper endorsements

[edit]

In the lead-up to elections, many newspapers publish editorial endorsements. The Coalition received support from several newspapers during the 2023 campaign which has been the case since the 2011 election. Nine Entertainment's Sydney Morning Herald endorsed the Coalition, stating that they believed the Coalition leader, Dominic Perrottet, should be given the opportunity to demonstrate his abilities to the people of NSW. The Daily Telegraph did not publish an editorial, but one of its columnists, Vikki Campion, warned that a Labor victory could result in "wasted money and efforts on feasibility studies, planning, and designs for safer roads and better dams." The Australian and The Australian Financial Review, both national mastheads, also endorsed the Coalition, with the latter citing their belief that the Coalition offered the best chance for getting "New South Wales through the national economic downturn and into a new phase of growth." Meanwhile, the Illawarra Mercury did not explicitly endorse a party but emphasised to readers, "there's a very real chance of a change of government on Saturday, and you might want to play your part."[160][161][162][163][164]

Newspaper City Owner Endorsement
Illawarra Mercury Wollongong Australian Community Media Change of government[161]
The Daily Telegraph Sydney News Corp Coalition[160]
The Australian Sydney News Corp Coalition[162]
The Australian Financial Review Sydney Nine Entertainment Coalition[163]
The Sydney Morning Herald Sydney Nine Entertainment Coalition[164]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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