Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election
The following is the pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[1] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. However, the current member for Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons will move to contest the seat of Kiama.[2] By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.
Notes
[edit]- ^ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
- ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
- ^ Melanie Gibbons will contest the seat of Kiama.
- ^ The alternative two-party-preferred margin after redistribution is LIB 14.2% v ALP.
- ^ The alternative two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results is LIB 17.8% v ALP.
- ^ Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
- ^ While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
- ^ Tim James was elected to the district of Willoughby in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian.
- ^ While the redistributed two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results would be Liberal 20.7%, the result of the 2022 by-election conducted in the old boundaries was a margin of 3.3% for the Liberals versus independent Larissa Penn.
- ^ The new Castle Hill largely replaces Elliott's seat of Baulkham Hills. A new seat named Kellyville has been created to replace the seat that formerly held the name of Castle Hill.
- ^ Kellyville largely replaces Williams's seat of Castle Hill. A different seat named Castle Hill has been created to replace Baulkham Hills.
- ^ Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
- ^ The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
- ^ Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
- ^ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
- ^ Bankstown largely replaces Dib's seat of Lakemba. The seat that formerly held the name of Bankstown was abolished.
References
[edit]- ^ Green, Antony (2023-01-08). "Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election – Antony Green's Election Blog". Retrieved 2023-01-22.
- ^ Smith, Alexandra; Cormack, Lucy (2023-03-07). "Dumped Liberal MP Gibbons set to take on Ward in shock move". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2023-03-08.