Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election
Appearance
In preparation for the next presidential elections in Romania, which will take place on November 24 (first round) and December 8, 2024 (second round), various polling companies and organizations in Romania have already conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intention among the electorate in assembly. The results of all these opinion polls are shown in the annual tables below in this Wikipedia article.
First round graphic representation
[edit]First round
[edit]After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Lasconi USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Diaconescu Ind. |
Terheș PNCR |
Orban FD |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Verifield for USR | 1– 6 Nov 2024 | 1.064 | 13.2 | 25.9 | 21.2 | 8.5 | 15.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 6.8[1] |
CURS[2] | 30 Oct – 5 Nov | 1.067 | 9.0 | 28.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Argument | 18-23 Oct 2024 | 1.100 | 14.6 | 26.8 | 18.4 | 12.9 | 15.9 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.1 |
Sociopol[3] | 14-18 Oct 2024 | 1.003 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0[a] |
INSCOP | 11-18 Oct 2024 | 1.106 | 19.2 | 25.8 | 20.4 | 7.8 | 14.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.8[b] |
CURS[4] | 11-16 Oct 2024 | 1.006 | 15.0 | 26.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Verifield for USR | 7-9 Oct 2024 | 1.009 | 17.2 | 23.4 | 19.8 | 6.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.1[5] |
Sociopol[3] | 7-9 Oct 2024 | 1.004 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0[c] |
Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
USR | Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Kövesi Ind. |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSOMAR-Avangarde | 15–27 Sep 2024 | 1.100 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | — | — | —[d] |
CURS | 10–23 Sep 2024 | 1.067 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | — | — | — | —[e] |
INSCOP | 11–16 Sep 2024 | 1.102 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 16.0 | 3.6 | — | — | —[f] |
FlashData | 5–13 Sep 2024 | 1.100 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | — | — | — | 7.0 |
Verifield | 15–30 august 2024 | 1.793 | 17.8 | 21.9 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 1.8 | — | — | 8.5 |
Sociopol | 26 Aug-3 Sep 2024 | 1,005 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | — | — | —[g] |
Verifield for USR | Aug 2024 | TBA | 21.0 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 2.3 | 8.8 | ||
The Center for International Research and Analyses | 24–30 Aug 2024 | 1,099 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | — | — | 5.0[h] |
CURS | 6–22 Aug 2024 | 1,067 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | — | — | — | 4.0 |
ARA for Antena3 | 9–26 Jul 2024 | 1,009 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | — | — | — | 14.0 |
CURS | 18–26 Jul 2024 | 1,067 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | — | — | — |
Sociopol | 9–17 Jul 2024 | 1,002 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | — | — | —[i] |
CURS | 26 Jun–2 Jul 2024 | 1,067 | 17.0 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | — | — | 2.0 |
INSCOP | 19 - 27 June 2024 | 1,100 | 26.7 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 3.4 | — | — | 1.2 |
CSPS | June 2024 | 1,013 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | — | — | — |
INSCOP | 20 - 25 May 2024 | 1,100 | 23.7 | 18.2 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 5.5 | — | — | 6.4 |
AtlasIntel | 5-9 April 2024 | 1,764 | 33.6 | — | 11.8 | — | 10.7 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 6.9 | — | |
27 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 5 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 0.7 | 6.1 | — | ||||
27.3 | 9.2 | 12.4 | — | 9.8 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 6.4 | — | - | |||
INSCOP | 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 26.0 | 24.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | — | 3.0 | — | 9.0 | - |
INSCOP Research | 16-24 jan 2024 | 1,100 | 26.5 | 18.9 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 5.1 | - | 1.3 |
Snap Market Research | 3–8 Jan 2024 | 998 | 12 | 29 | 13 | 8 | 14 | —[j] | 5 | — | 10[k] | 9[l] |
Opinion polls with Geoană (independent) (2023)
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Drulă USR |
Lasconi USR |
Orban FD |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Kövesi Ind. |
Hellvig Ind. |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 20–27 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 26.2 | 20.8 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 4.2 | — | — | 2.4 | 3.9 | — | — | 1.9 |
INSCOP | 23 Oct–2 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 27.7 | 21.8[m] | 18.9 | — | 10.5 | — | 12.1 | — | 3.1 | 4.3 | — | — | — |
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 20.4 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 25.3 | 19.5 | 18.7 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 5.6 | — | — | 2.7 | 4.1 | — | — | 3.4 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 22.6 | — | 10.6 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | — | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 16.4 | 0.4 | 20.9[n] |
14.6 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 4.5 | — | 5.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 16.9 | 0.5 | 24.2[o] | |||
Election | Nov 2019 | — | — | 22.26 | — | 37.82 | — | 15.02 | — | 3.87 | — | — | — | — |
Poll | Date | Sample | Ciucă PNL |
Ciolacu PSD |
Drulă USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Kövesi Ind. |
Simion AUR |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Cioloș REPER |
Orban FD |
Hellvig Ind. |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 20–27 Nov 2023 | 1,100 | 14.1 | 27.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | — | 18.0 | 19.1 | 6.7 | — | — | 4.9 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 8.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 24.1[p] |
Election | Nov 2019 | — | 37.82 | 22.26 | 15.02 | 3.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Cîțu | Orban | Ciolacu | Barna | Cioloș | Drulă | Diaconescu | Kelemen | Simion | Șoșoacă | Geoană | Dragnea | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gazeta Civică[7] | 15–31 Jul 2021 | 1,112 | 11.0 | — | 4.0 | — | — | 22.0 | — | 5.0 | — | — | 33.0 | — | 6.0 |
INSOMAR[8] | 1–8 May 2021 | 1,030 | — | 12.03 | 16.1 | 22.00 | 13.4 | — | 8.3 | — | 14.2 | 4.0 | — | 6.6 | 3.37 |
INSOMAR[9] | 8–11 Feb 2021 | 1,030 | 3.0 | 11.4 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 12.6 | — | — | 3.0 | 17.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 8.96 |
Election | Nov 2019 | 37.82 | 22.26 | 15.02 | 5.72 | 3.87 | 0.34 | — | — | 14.97 |
Second round
[edit]Geoană vs Ciolacu
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 19 - 27 June 2024 | 1,100 | 63.7 | 36.3 |
INSCOP | 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 61.0 | 39.0 |
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 64.9 | 35.1 |
Geoană vs Simion
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Simion AUR |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 71.8 | 28.2 |
INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 63.5 | 36.5 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 69.5 | 30.5 |
Geoană vs Ciucă
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciucă PNL |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 19 - 27 June 2024 | 1,100 | 63.9 | 36.1 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 76.2 | 23.8 |
Geoană vs Kövesi
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Kövesi Ind. |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 66.0 | 34.0 |
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 61.2 | 38.8 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 53.1 | 46.9 |
Geoană vs Lasconi
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Lasconi USR |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 19 - 27 June 2024 | 1,200 | 66.2 | 33.8 |
Ciolacu vs Simion
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 69.5 | 30.5 |
INSCOP | 15–22 Sep 2023 | 1,550 | 58.8 | 41.2 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 54.1 | 45.9 |
Ciolacu vs Lasconi
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Lasconi USR |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 19 - 27 June 2024 | 2,000 | 58.0 | 42.0 |
Ciolacu vs Drulă
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Drulă USR |
---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 50.4 | 49.6 |
Ciolacu vs Ciucă
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Ciolacu PSD |
Ciucă PNL |
---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP | 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 | 2,000 | 63.0 | 37.0 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 51.7 | 48.3 |
Ciolacu vs Kövesi
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Kövesi Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | 20–29 Oct 2023 | 2,000 | 58.6 | 41.4 |
AtlasIntel | 27–30 Jan 2023 | 2,000 | 57.8 | 42.2 |
The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Drulă USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Piedone PUSL |
Others/
n/a |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
iDATA | 22 – 26 Apr | 1,006 | 15.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 58.0[10] |
34.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 1.6[11] | 2.3 | 12.7 | 14.1 | — | |||
CBS-Research | 6 – 13 Apr | 1,008 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | — | — | — | 72.8[12] |
51.9 | 17.3 | 3.7 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 3.3 | — | — | — | — |
Trust in politicians
[edit]Poll | Date | Sample | Geoană Ind. |
Ciolacu PSD |
Simion AUR |
Ciucă PNL |
Șoșoacă S.O.S. |
Lasconi USR |
Kelemen UDMR |
Cioloș REPER |
Kövesi Ind. |
Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSCOP Research | 19 - 27 jun 2024 | 1,100 | 33.4 | 23.6 | 18.0 | 21.4 | 20.2 | 21.3 | 8.5 | - | - | - |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 1%
- ^ Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0.3%
- ^ Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 2%
- ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
- ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
- ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
- ^ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
- ^ Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
- ^ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
- ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
- ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
- ^ Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
- ^ With PNL endorsement
- ^ Don't know 11.1, invalid/blank vote 9.8
- ^ Don't know 13.1, invalid/blank vote 11.1
- ^ Don't know 13.0, invalid/blank vote 11.1
References
[edit]- ^ Călin Georgescu (ind.) 4.6% Ana Birchall (ind.) 1.2% Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%
- ^ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
- ^ a b Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
- ^ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
- ^ Birchall 0.7 Altii 0.4
- ^ Cătălin Drulă in January, February, April and May 2024 Elena Lasconi since june 2024
- ^ "Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni" (in Romanian). Gazeta Civică | Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. Archived from the original on 2021-08-04. Retrieved 2021-08-05.
- ^ "Opțiuni politice de mai | INSOMAR.ORG". insomar.org (in Romanian). Retrieved 2021-05-14.
- ^ "SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice". Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12. [permanent dead link]
- ^ Niciunul dintre cei menționați – 15% Nu știu/Nu răspund – 41,6% Dan Barna – 1,4%
- ^ Dan Barna 3.2%
- ^ 44% dintre respondenți au arătat că nu au decis încă pentru cine ar vota la viitoarele alegeri prezidențiale din România, în timp ce 24,8% nu ar participa la vot. 4.0% NR