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2026 Victorian state election

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2026 Victorian state election
← 2022 28 November 2026 2030 →
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Jacinta Allan John Pesutto Ellen Sandell
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 27 September 2023 8 December 2022 23 April 2024
Leader's seat Bendigo East Hawthorn Melbourne
Last election 56 seats, 36.66% 28 seats, 34.48%[b] 4 seats, 11.50%
Current seats 54[a] 28 3[c]
Seats needed Steady Increase 17 Increase 42
Winning margin by electorate.
Incumbent Premier

Jacinta Allan
Labor



The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria.[1] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a record fourth consecutive four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by John Pesutto.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission.

Background

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Previous election and parliament

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See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly); Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2022–2026; and Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Victorian state election
See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) and Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2022–2026

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.

Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the Victorian Labor Party at a press conference on 26 September 2023; a resignation that was formally affected the following day. This precipitated a leadership election within the Labor party-room, which was won unopposed by Jacinta Allan following hours of intense negotiations between members of Labor's left and right factions. Allan, of the left, was elected to the leadership position and right-faction member Ben Carroll was elected deputy leader and deputy premier.[2] Allan became the second female premier in the state's history, following Joan Kirner's 1990–1992 premiership.[3] The government is seeking a fourth consecutive four-year term.

Following the Liberal/National Coalition's defeat, Opposition Leader and Liberal leader Matthew Guy announced in his post-election concession speech he would resign the leadership of the party. This ensured a leadership election was held for the position, at which newly elected member for Hawthorn John Pesutto defeated Brad Battin by one vote in a secret ballot of Liberal party-room MPs.[4]

Since the 2022 state election, and the January 2023 supplementary election in Narracan there have been two by-elections; the August 2023 Warrandyte by-election, and the November 2023 Mulgrave by-election. In both votes the incumbent party's candidate was successful. The Assembly's composition has been altered by the removal of Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman from the Labor caucus in October 2023 and April 2024 respectively, with both now sitting on the crossbench as "Independent Labor" MPs. The resignation of Sam Hibbins from the Greens on 1 November 2024 also resulted in his sitting on the crossbench as an Indepentent MP.

Electoral system

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Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month.[1]

Legislative Assembly

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For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in.[5] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.[6]

Legislative Council

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For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'.[5] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council.[7]

When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences will then be automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket.[5]

When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of 5 boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate.[5]

Candidates and retiring MPs

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The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2026 election:

Liberal

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Date

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In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.[9]

Expected timeline of the election

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  • 3 November 2026: The Legislative Assembly expires prompting the need for an election to be held. This also means that there are no longer any members, business of parliament ends until a new parliament is formed, and parliament enters into a caretaker period.[10]
  • 3 November 2026: On the same day that the Legislative Assembly expires, the Governor of Victoria issues a writ for the VEC to hold an election.[9]
  • 10 November 2026: 7 days after the writ is issued, at 8:00 pm, the electoral roll is closed meaning people can no longer be added to the electoral roll, update the electorate they live in, or update any other information.[9]
  • 13 November 2026: 10 days after the writ is issued, at noon, the period for submitting candidate nominations closes.[9]
  • 28 November 2026: The last Saturday of November, nearest to the fourth year following of the previous election date, is the Election Day.[9]
  • 19 December 2026: Within 21 days following election day, the Electoral Commissioner returns the writ with information regarding the successful candidates.[9]

Pre-electoral pendulum

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Extended content
Labor seats (54)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP 0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP 1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP 2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP 2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP 3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP 3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP 4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP 6.2%
Mulgrave Eden Foster ALP 6.2% v IND[d]
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP 7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 7.2%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP 7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP 8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP 8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP 8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 10.2%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 10.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 10.9%
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP 11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP 12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP 14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP 15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP 15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP 16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP 18.4%
Liberal/National seats (28)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB 0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT 1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB 1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB 4.0%
Warrandyte[e] Nicole Werner LIB 4.3%
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT 4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB 4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB 6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT 6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT 9.9%
Safe
Narracan[f] Wayne Farnham LIB 13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 24.6%
Crossbench seats (6)
Seat Member Party Margin
Richmond Gabrielle de Vietri GRN 7.3% v ALP
Ringwood Will Fowles ALP 7.5% v LIB
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 9.8% v LIB
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 10.2% v ALP
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 12.0% v LIB
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 13.7% v ALP

Opinion polling

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Primary Poll Graph

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2PP Poll Graph

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Voting intention

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Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[11] 1,000 28% 38%* 13% 21% 49% 51%
26 September – 3 October 2024 Redbridge[12][13] 1,516 30% 40%* 12% 18% 49% 51%
18 September 2024 Redbridge[14] 1,500 30% 40%* 12% 17% 50% 50%
7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[15] 1,054 27% 37%* 14% 22% 50% 50%
6 – 29 August 2024 Wolf & Smith[16][17] 2,024 28% 40%* 14% 18% 48% 52%
5 August 2024 Redbridge[18] 1,514 31% 40%* 12% 17% 50% 50%
14 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[19] 1,000 27% 37%* 15% 21% 50% 50%
7 June 2024 Redbridge[20] 1,000 35% 38%* 14% 13% 55% 45%
19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[21][g] — 28% 37%* 13% 22% 50% 50%
24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[23][g] ~1,100 33% 35%* 13% 19% 54.6% 45.4%
14 – 20 March 2024 Redbridge[24] 1,559 36% 38%* 10% 16% 54% 46%
2 – 12 December 2023 Redbridge[25][26] 2,000 37% 36%* 13% 14% 55.9% 44.1%
3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[27][g] ~1,100 37% 31%* 11% 20% 56.5% 43.5%
September – October 2023 Resolve Strategic[28][g] ~1,100 39% 32%* 12% 17% 57.5% 42.5%
27 September 2023
Jacinta Allan becomes premier and Labor leader
31 August – 14 September 2023 Redbridge[29] 3,001 37% 34%* 13% 16% 56.5% 43.5%
July – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[30][g] ~1,100 39% 28%* 13% 20% 60% 40%
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan[31] 1,046 33% 35.5%* 12.5% 19%[h] 53% 47%
May – June 2023 Resolve Strategic[32][g] 1,003 41% 23% 3% 15% 18% 62.5% 37.5%
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan[33] 2,095 42% 28.5%* 12.5% 17%[i] 61.5% 38.5%
19 – 22 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[34][g] 1,609 42% 30%* 10% 17% 60.5% 39.5%
15 – 18 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[35][g] 825 41% 30%* 13% 17% 60.9% 39.1%
8 December 2022
John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
26 November 2022 election[36] N/A N/A 37.0% 29.6% 4.8% 11.5% 17.1% 55% 45%
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[37] 1,226 38% 35%* 12% 15% 54.5% 45.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[38]
Better premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better premier Allan Pesutto
Allan Pesutto Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[11] 29% 30% not asked not asked
7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[15] 30% 29% not asked not asked
14 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[19] 31% 28% not asked not asked
19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[39] 31% 26% not asked not asked
24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[23] 34% 25% not asked not asked
22 December 2023 Redbridge[26] not asked 24% 30% 16% 29%
3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[27] 34% 22% not asked not asked
September – October 2023 Resolve Strategic[28] 38% 19% not asked not asked
27 September 2023 Allan replaces Andrews Andrews Pesutto Andrews Pesutto
July – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[30] 41% 32% not asked not asked
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan[31] 52.5% 47.5% 45% 55% not asked
May – June 2023 Resolve Strategic[32] 49% 26% not asked not asked
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan[33] 64% 36% 52.5% 47.5% 46.5% 53.5%
19 – 22 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[34] 49% 28% not asked not asked
15 – 18 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[35] 50% 26% not asked not asked
8 December 2022 Pesutto replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
26 November 2022 election – – – – – –
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[37] 51% 35% 46% 48% 31% 56%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[38]

Notes

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  1. ^ Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman have sat on the crossbench as Independent Labor MPs since 5 August 2023 and 29 April 2024 respectively.
  2. ^ The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
  3. ^ Sam Hibbins has sat on the crossbench as an Independent MP since 1 November 2024.
  4. ^ Elected at the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election following the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
  5. ^ The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
  6. ^ Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h Resolve Strategic does not publish TPP figures. The TPP figure shown here has been manually calculated.[22]
  8. ^ Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, independents 10.5%, Other parties 6.5%
  9. ^ Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, independents 9%, Other parties 5%

References

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  1. ^ a b "State elections". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 12 August 2023. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  2. ^ "Jacinta Allan fends off late challenge to become 49th premier of Victoria". ABC News. 27 September 2023. Archived from the original on 27 September 2023. Retrieved 27 September 2023.
  3. ^ Kolovos, Benita; Ore, Adeshola (27 September 2023). "Jacina Allan to become premier of Victoria". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 27 September 2023. Retrieved 27 September 2023.
  4. ^ McCubbing, Gus (8 December 2022). "John Pesutto wins Liberal leadership in Victoria by one vote". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 8 December 2022.
  5. ^ a b c d "Preferential voting". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  6. ^ "State districts". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  7. ^ "State regions". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  8. ^ Deery, Shannon (13 March 2024). "Bill Tilley announces this will be his last term in office". Herald Sun. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  9. ^ a b c d e f "Fact Sheet G3: Elections". Parliament of Victoria. 10 March 2015. Archived from the original on 17 June 2016. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  10. ^ "Fact Sheet A2: Terminology used in Parliament". Parliament of Victoria. 24 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
  11. ^ a b Rooney, Kieran (11 September 2024). "John Pesutto chalks up a first-time victory over Jacinta Allan in latest Resolve poll". The Age. Retrieved 11 September 2024.
  12. ^ Deery, Shannon; Campbell, James (10 October 2024). "Poll shows Vic Libs in election-winning spot, as coup against Pesutto described as 'dead'". Herald Sun. Retrieved 10 October 2024.
  13. ^ "Victorian state vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 10 October 2024.
  14. ^ Deery, Shannon; Douglas, Carly; Mawby, Nathan (18 September 2024). "Allan government facing voter backlash over housing affordability as Suburban Rail Loop concerns mount". Herald Sun. Retrieved 18 September 2024.
  15. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (11 September 2024). "John Pesutto within striking distance as state's preferred premier". The Age. Retrieved 11 September 2024.
  16. ^ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  17. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  18. ^ Deery, Shannon (7 June 2024). "Victorian voters vent anger at Allan government in shock poll result". Herald Sun. Retrieved 5 August 2024.
  19. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (18 July 2024). "Labor primary vote slumps under Premier Jacinta Allan". The Age. Retrieved 18 July 2024.
  20. ^ Deery, Shannon (7 June 2024). "Jacinta Allan's Labor government would win election, polling shows". Herald Sun. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  21. ^ Smethurst, Annika (21 May 2024). "Labor's popularity plunges as voters demand government tackle debt". The Age. Archived from the original on 21 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  22. ^ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator". Archived from the original on 7 April 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  23. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (28 March 2024). "Slip in Labor support pushes Pesutto's team ahead for first time in years". The Age. Archived from the original on 27 March 2024. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
  24. ^ Deery, Shannon (25 March 2024). "Coalition records best primary vote result since June 2021: poll". Herald Sun. Archived from the original on 25 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  25. ^ Douglas, Carly (22 December 2023). "Liberal brand a 'very damaged product in Victoria', Redbridge Director Tony Barry says". Herald Sun. Retrieved 22 December 2023.
  26. ^ a b "Victorian public opinion and vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 December 2023. Retrieved 27 December 2023.
  27. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (8 December 2023). "Support for Allan dips, but Labor holds strong lead over Coalition". The Age. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  28. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (11 October 2023). "Jacinta Allan maintains commanding lead over Coalition but gap narrows". The Age. Archived from the original on 11 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  29. ^ "Victorian vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 September 2023. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
  30. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (16 August 2023). "Labor's lead stays strong but Andrews' personal popularity falls". The Age. Archived from the original on 22 May 2024. Retrieved 17 August 2023.
  31. ^ a b "Support for Victorian Government and Premier Daniel Andrews plunges after cancellation of Commonwealth Games". Roy Morgan. 20 July 2023. Archived from the original on 21 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  32. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (14 June 2023). "'Can't get much lower': Pesutto's Coalition sinks to new low in polls". The Age. Archived from the original on 14 June 2023. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
  33. ^ a b "Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto's handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader". Roy Morgan. 23 May 2023. Archived from the original on 24 May 2023. Retrieved 23 May 2023.
  34. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (24 April 2023). "Labor holds lead over state Coalition, but Deeming drama fails to make dent". The Age. Archived from the original on 23 April 2023. Retrieved 24 April 2023.
  35. ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (20 February 2023). "Support for Daniel Andrews rises as he marks 3000 days in office". The Age. Archived from the original on 20 February 2023. Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  36. ^ "2022 State election results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 20 February 2023. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
  37. ^ a b Baxendale, Rachel (25 November 2022). "Victorian election: Despite a swing, Newspoll puts Daniel Andrews on track to win". The Australian. Archived from the original on 25 November 2022. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
  38. ^ a b "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
  39. ^ Smethurst, Annika (21 May 2024). "Labor's popularity plunges as voters demand government tackle debt". The Age. Archived from the original on 21 May 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
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