Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election
In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.
Electoral polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Voting intention estimates
[edit]Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.
Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size |
Smer | PS | Hlas | OĽaNO and Friends | KDH | SASKA | SNS | Republika | Hungarian Alliance |
Democrats | We Are Family | ĽSNS | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | ZĽ | KÚ | ||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos[1] | 27 Oct–1 Nov 2024 | 1,003 | 21.9 | 22.6 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | |
| AKO[2] | 8–17 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 15.0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 | ||
| NMS[3] | 2–7 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 20.5 | 24.4 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 3.9 | |
| Focus[4] | 17–26 Sep 2024 | 1,017 | 23.3 | 22.1 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.2 | – | 0.1 | 1.2 | ||
| AKO[5] | 10–16 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 22.8 | 22.4 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | – | 0.9 | 0.4 | ||
| Ipsos[6] | 6–10 Sep 2024 | 1,025 | 25.5 | 21.6 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | – | – | 3.9 | ||
| NMS[7] | 5–9 Sep 2024 | 1,001 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 12.6 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | – | 0.6 | |
| NMS[8] | 8–12 Aug 2024 | 1,014 | 22.4 | 23.1 | 14.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | – | 0.7 | |
| AKO[9] | 6–12 Aug 2024 | 1,000 | 23.6 | 22.0 | 15.9 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | ||
| Focus[10] | 9–14 Jul 2024 | 1,013 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | – | 1.0 | 4.4 | ||
| AKO[11] | 9–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 23.5 | 21.7 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.8 | ||
| NMS[12] | 4–8 Jul 2024 | 1,020 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | |
| Ipsos[13] | 26 Jun–1 Jul 2024 | 1,017 | 25.2 | 22.3 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.9 | ||
| AKO[14] | 11–18 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 23.8 | 22.8 | 15.2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | – | 0.8 | 1.0 | ||
| Focus[15] | 5–12 Jun 2024 | 1,025 | 24.2 | 21.6 | 14.5 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | – | – | 2.6 | ||
| European election | 8 Jun 2024 | 1,476,968 | 24.77 | 27.82 | 7.18 | 1.99 | 0.63 | 7.15 | 4.92 | 1.90 | 12.53 | 3.80 | 4.69 | – | 0.48 | 2.06 | 3.05 | |
| NMS[16] | 30 May–3 Jun 2024 | 1,020 | 22.4 | 23.7 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | – | 1.3 | |
| Ipsos[17] | 14–21 May 2024 | 743 | 25.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | – | – | 4.0 | ||
| AKO[18] | 7–14 May 2024 | 1,000 | 21.8 | 20.8 | 17.2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.1 | – | 0.6 | 1.0 | ||
| NMS[19] | 9–13 May 2024 | 1,020 | 20.9 | 23.1 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | – | 2.2 | |
| Focus[20] | 17–24 Apr 2024 | 1,017 | 21.1 | 19.7 | 18.0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | ||
| AKO[21] | 9–16 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 21.2 | 20.1 | 16.5 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||
| Focus[22] | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 | 1,015 | 21.6 | 20.1 | 17.9 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | – | 1.5 | ||
| Ipsos[23] | 16–19 Mar 2024 | 1,009 | 21.6 | 20.2 | 16.3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.0 | – | – | 1.4 | ||
| AKO[24] | 11–18 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 22.1 | 21.0 | 15.9 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | ||
| Ipsos[25] | 12–16 Mar 2024 | 1,038 | 23.4 | 20.8 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | – | – | 2.6 | ||
| Ipsos[26] | 16–21 Feb 2024 | 1,028 | 22.7 | 21.3 | 16.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.4 | ||
| Focus[27] | 14–21 Feb 2024 | 1,025 | 21.1 | 18.9 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 2.2 | ||
| NMS[28] | 14–18 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 16.9 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | ||
| AKO[29] | 5–12 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 24.0 | 22.6 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | ||
| Ipsos[30] | 22–25 Jan 2024 | 1,022 | 24.5 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 3.9 | ||
| Focus[31] | 16–23 Jan 2024 | 1,015 | 21.6 | 19.4 | 17.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.2 | ||
| AKO[32] | 11–16 Jan 2024 | 1,048 | 22.1 | 19.9 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | ||
| NMS[33] | 10–14 Jan 2024 | 1,030 | 22.3 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | ||
| Ipsos[34] | 13–18 Dec 2023 | 1,048 | 24.1 | 19.4 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.7 | ||
| AKO[35] | 11–13 Dec 2023 | 1,000 | 24.2 | 21.4 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | – | 2.8 | ||
| Focus[36] | 15–22 Nov 2023 | 1,015 | 23.8 | 17.9 | 14.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 5.9 | ||
| AKO[37] | 7–14 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 24.0 | 20.1 | 15.4 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.9 | ||
| Ipsos[38] | 2–7 Nov 2023 | 1,021 | 24.0 | 19.1 | 15.1 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4.9 | ||
| 2023 election | 30 Sep 2023 | 2,967,896 | 22.95 | 17.96 | 14.70 | 8.90 | 6.82 | 6.32 | 5.63 | 4.75 | 4.39 | 2.93 | 2.21 | 0.84 | 1.60 | 4.99 | ||
Seat projections
[edit]| Polling firm | Date | Sample size |
Smer | PS | Hlas | OĽaNO and Friends | KDH | SASKA | SNS | Republic | Hungarian Alliance |
Democrats | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos[1] | 27 Oct–1 Nov 2024 | 1,003 | 42 | 43 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 83 |
| AKO[2] | 8–17 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 41 | 41 | 29 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 80 |
| NMS[3] | 2–7 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 37 | 45 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 59 | 91 |
| Focus[4] | 17–26 Sep 2024 | 1,017 | 40 | 38 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 62 | 88 |
| AKO[5] | 10–16 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 43 | 43 | 29 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 78 |
| Ipsos[6] | 6–10 Sep 2024 | 1,025 | 46 | 39 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 67 | 83 |
| NMS[7] | 5–9 Sep 2024 | 1,001 | 45 | 46 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 69 | 81 |
| AKO[9] | 6–12 Aug 2024 | 1,000 | 44 | 41 | 30 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 74 | 76 |
| AKO[11] | 9–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 39 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 78 | 72 |
| Ipsos[13] | 26 Jun–1 Jul 2024 | 1,017 | 47 | 42 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 72 | 78 |
| AKO[14] | 11–18 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 40 | 27 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78 | 72 |
| Focus[15] | 5–12 Jun 2024 | 1,025 | 43 | 38 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 68 | 82 |
| AKO[18] | 7–14 May 2024 | 1,000 | 39 | 37 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 71 |
| Focus[20] | 17–24 Apr 2024 | 1,017 | 38 | 36 | 33 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 80 | 70 |
| AKO[21] | 9–16 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 41 | 39 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 83 | 67 |
| Focus[22] | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2024 | 1,015 | 40 | 37 | 33 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 82 | 68 |
| AKO[24] | 11–18 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 42 | 40 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82 | 68 |
| Focus[27] | 14–21 Feb 2024 | 1,025 | 39 | 35 | 32 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 82 | 68 |
| AKO[29] | 5–12 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 45 | 42 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 82 | 68 |
| Focus[31] | 16–23 Jan 2024 | 1,015 | 43 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 89 | 61 |
| AKO[32] | 11–16 Jan 2024 | 1,048 | 37 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 70 | 80 |
| AKO[35] | 11–13 Dec 2023 | 1,000 | 43 | 38 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 78 | 72 |
| Focus[36] | 15–22 Nov 2023 | 1,015 | 42 | 31 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 77 | 73 |
| AKO[37] | 7–14 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 47 | 39 | 30 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 87 | 63 |
| 2023 election | 30 Sep 2023 | 2,967,896 | 42 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 79 | 71 |
References
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