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Next Thai general election
Thailand
← 2023 By 28 June 2027
All 500 seats in the House of Representatives
251 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
People's Party Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut 143
Pheu Thai Paetongtarn Shinawatra 142
Bhumjaithai Anutin Charnvirakul 71
Palang Pracharat Prawit Wongsuwon 40
United Thai Nation Pirapan Salirathavibhaga 36
Democrat Chalermchai Sri-on 25
Chart Thai Pattana Varawut Silpa-archa 10
Prachachart Tawee Sodsong 9
Thai Sang Thai Sudarat Keyuraphan 6
Kla Tham Part [th] Narumon Pinyosinwat 4
Chart Pattana Tewan Liptapanlop 3
Thai Ruam Palang Wasawat Puangpornsri 2
Fair Party [th] Pitipong Temcharoen [th] 2
Thai Liberal Sereepisuth Temeeyaves 1
New Democracy Suratin Pichan [th] 1
Thai Progress [th] Watcharaphon Busamongkol 1
Vacant – 5
Incumbent Prime Minister
Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Pheu Thai

General elections are scheduled to be held in Thailand no later than 28 June 2027.[a] They will determine the composition of the House of Representatives.

Background

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This will be the third election under the 2017 constitution, which was implemented under the National Council for Peace and Order (the junta that took power in the 2014 Thai coup d'état), and the first after the expiration of the constitution's five-year transitory provision that gave the senate voting rights to choose the prime minister in a joint session of parliament. As such, unlike in 2023 when the junta-appointed senate (whose term also ends after five years) blocked the election's majority winner from forming government, this time the outcome of the election should determine the resulting government.[1]

Affiliation Members
Elected[2] Current[3] Change
People's Party 0 143 Increase 143
Pheu Thai 141 141 Steady
Bhumjaithai 71 70 Decrease 1
Palang Pracharat Party 40 40 Steady
United Thai Nation 36 36 Steady
Democrat 25 25 Steady
Chart Thai Pattana 10 10 Steady
Prachachart 9 9 Steady
Thai Sang Thai 6 6 Steady
Chart Pattana 2 3 Increase 1
Thai Ruam Palang 2 2 Steady
Fair Party 1 1 Steady
Thai Liberal 1 1 Steady
New Democracy 1 1 Steady
New Party 1 1 Steady
Thai Counties 1 1 Steady
New Social Power 1 1 Steady
Teachers for People 1 1 Steady
Thai Progress Party 0 1 Increase 1
Move Forward[b] 151 0 Decrease 151
Independent[c] 0 0 Steady
Total 500 493 Decrease 7
Vacant N/A 6 Increase 6
Suspended N/A 1 Increase 1
Government majority 62 151 Increase 89
This table:

Electoral system

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As in the 2023 election, the electoral system will follow that of the 2021 amendment of the 2017 constitution. The 500 members of the House of Representatives are elected by parallel voting. 400 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting and 100 seats by proportional representation. Voters cast separate ballots for the two sets of seats.[4]

Opinion polls

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LOESS curve of the polling for the next Thai General Election.

Preferred party

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Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample PP
↑
MFP 		PTP UTN BJT Dem PPRP Undecided Others Lead
16–23 September 2024 NIDA 2,000 34.25% 27.15% 9.95% 3.55% 4.40% 2.05% 15.10% 3.55% 7.10%
14–18 June 2024 NIDA 2,000 49.20%[d] 16.85% 7.55% 2.20% 3.75% 1.75% 15.00% 3.70% 32.35%
7–18 May 2024 KPI 1,620 44.90%[d] 20.20% 10.90% 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% – 12.60% 24.70%
11–13 March 2024 NIDA 2,000 48.45%[d] 22.10% 5.10% 1.70% 3.50% 2.30% 12.75% 4.10% 26.35%
9–20 December 2023 SPU 1,168 61.50%[d] 25.50% 1.08% 1.03% 1.04% 1.95% – 7.90% 26.00%
13–18 December 2023 NIDA 2,000 44.05%[d] 24.05% 3.20% 1.75% 3.60% 1.45% 16.10% 6.00% 20.00%
22–24 August 2023 SPU 1,253 62.00%[d] 12.87% 9.27% 4.39% 1.86% 2.00% – 7.61% 49.13%
14 May 2023 2023 election – 37.99%[d] 28.84% 12.54% 2.99% 2.43% 1.41% – 13.80% 9.15%

Preferred prime minister

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Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Natthaphong Paethongtarn Pirapan Anutin Sudarat Prawit Undecided Others Lead
16–23 September 2024 NIDA 2,000 22.90 31.35 8.65 4.00 4.80 1.15 23.50 3.65 8.45
Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Pita Srettha Paethongtarn Pirapan  Anutin Sudarat Prawit Undecided Others Lead
14–18 June 2024 NIDA 2,000 45.50 12.85 4.85 6.85 2.05 3.40 — 20.55 3.95 24.95
7–18 May 2024 KPI 1,620 46.90 8.70 10.50 – 3.30 – 0.40 – 30.50 36.40
11–13 March 2024 NIDA 2,000 42.45 17.75 6.00 3.55 1.45 2.90 1.05 20.05 4.80 22.40
13–18 December 2023 NIDA 2,000 39.40 22.35 5.75 2.40 1.70 1.65 — 18.60 8.15 17.05

Government Approval

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Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample size Approve Disapprove Neither Others Net approval Notes
9–11 September 2024 NIDA 1,310 41.30 57.94 – 0.76 –16.64 Paetongtarn's Cabinet
4–5 June 2024 NIDA 1,310 32.59 66.04 – 1.37 –33.45 Srettha's Cabinet

Notes

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  1. ^ While elections in Thailand are customarily held on a Sunday, there is no constitutional requirement to do so; the latest possible date for a general election to be held is the 45th day following the expiration of the House of Representatives four-year term or 45th-60th day in the case of House of Representatives being dissolved.
  2. ^ The party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court on 7 August 2024.
  3. ^ Under Thai law, a member of the House of Representatives must be officially affiliated with a political party. However, if for any reason their party membership is rescinded, they can be without a party for up to thirty days. During the thirty days, they must find a new party to affiliate with or their membership of parliament will end.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g As Move Forward Party, People's Party's de facto predecessor

References

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  1. ^ Sattaburuth, Aekarach (19 February 2024). "Representatives of Thai public to succeed junta-appointed senators". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
    "Thailand falls 8 places in Democracy Index". Bangkok Post. 17 February 2024. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  2. ^ "เช็กผลคะแนนเลือกตั้ง 66 เรียลไทม์ | Thai PBS เลือกตั้ง #66 เลือกอนาคตประเทศไทย". Thai PBS (in Thai). Retrieved 11 October 2023.
  3. ^ "26th House of Representatives Map". hris.parliament.go.th. Secretariat of the House of Representatives. Retrieved 23 November 2023.
  4. ^ "Thai Parliament passes election changes favouring ruling party". The Business Times. 10 September 2021. Archived from the original on 13 September 2021. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
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