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Opinion polling on Welsh independence

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Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?".[1][2]

Public opinion

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Summary

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A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Yes/No Independence polls

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Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation
& client 		Sample
size 		Should Wales be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
5–7 June 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 960 33% 57% 10% 24%
18–19 May 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 900 29% 59% 12% 30%
23–24 March 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 878 30% 58% 11% 28%
18 February 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 874 27% 61% 12% 34%
24–26 January 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,100 30% 59% 11% 29%
10-11 December 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,086 34% 58% 9% 24%
4-7 December 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,004 22% 56% 14% 34%
12-13 November 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 33% 56% 12% 23%
14-15 October 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 959 31% 59% 9% 28%
1–6 September 2023 YouGov 22% 56% 13% 34%
13–14 August 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,068 33% 53% 14% 20%
14–16 July 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,050 32% 58% 10% 26%
17–18 June 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 30% 57% 13% 27%
12–17 May 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,064 20% 54% 15% 34%
14–15 May 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,058 32% 58% 11% 26%
15–17 April 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,251 29% 60% 11% 31%
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov / WalesOnline 1,083 18% 55% 16% 37%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,042 22% 55% 14% 33%
21–25 November 2022 YouGov / YesCymru 1,033 23% 54% 13% 31%
20–22 September 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,014 24% 52% 14% 28% Age 16+
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,025 30% 48% 13% 18% Non-standard question:
If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,025 25% 53% 12% 28%
12–16 June 2022 YouGov / ITV Wales 1,020 25% 50% 25% 25%
25 Feb – 1 March 2022 YouGov/ Barn Cymru 1,086 21% 53% 26% 32% Age 16+
5 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 30% 55% 15% 25% Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online
2–4 May 2021 YouGov / Welsh Barometer 1,071 21% 55% 14% 34%
29 April – 4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 27% 58% 14% 31% Online
23–28 April 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,002 42% 49% 8% 7% 46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support.[3]
18–21 April 2021 YouGov 1,142 22% 54% 24% 32% Age 16+
9–19 April 2021 Opinium / Sky News 2,005 28% 52% 19% 24%
16–19 March 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,174 22% 55% 23% 33% Age 16+
18–22 February 2021 Savanta ComRes / ITV News 1,003 35% 55% 10% 20% 39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time.[4][5] Age 16+.
19–22 February 2021 WalesOnline / YouGov 1,059 25% 50% 14% 25% Age 16+
18–21 January 2021 The Sunday Times / YouGov 1,059 23% 52% 25% 29% Age 16+
11–14 January 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,018 22% 53% 25% 31% Age 16+
26–29 October 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,013 23% 53% 25% 30% Age 16+
24–27 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,044 25% 52% 23% 27%
29 July – 7 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,044 26% 55% 19% 29% Age 16+
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,021 25% 54% 21% 29%
20–26 January 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,037 21% 57% 22% 36% Age 16+
6–9 December 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,020 17% 60% 23% 43%
22–25 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,116 20% 57% 22% 37%
31 October – 4 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,032 22% 57% 21% 35%
10–14 October 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,032 21% 57% 23% 36%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,039 24% 52% 23% 28%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,039 33% 48% 20% 15% Non-standard question:
If an independent Wales was within the European Union
7–14 December 2018 Sky News Data: Wales 1,014 17% 67% 16% 50%
30 May – 6 June 2018 YouGov 2,016 19% 65% 16% 46%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 15% 65% 20% 50%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 28% 53% 20% 25% Non-standard question:
If an independent Wales was within the European Union
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,010 19% 61% 21% 42% Non-standard question:
If Scotland left the UK
8–11 September 2014 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University >1,000 17% 70% 13% 53% The week before the Scottish independence referendum
April 2014 YouGov 1,000 12% 74% 14% 62%
March 2013 ITV Wales / YouGov Unknown 10% 62% 28% 52% Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
5–8 January 2007 BBC / Opinion Research Business 527 19% 69% 13% 50% Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end?

If it were to end this would mean that Scotland (in Wales say “Wales”) became an independent country?

"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation
& client 		Sample size Total
favourable 		In favour Indifferent Against Total
unfavourable
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
10–15 May 2019 YesCymru / YouGov 1,133 36% 14% 4% 5% 6% 7% 17% 5% 6% 6% 2% 28% 47%
9–12 May 2017 YesCymru / YouGov 1,000 29% 10% 2% 6% 6% 5% 18% 4% 6% 7% 5% 31% 53%

By age (February 2023)

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Age group[6] No Yes Do not know Lead
18–24 41% 20% 16% 21%
25–49 44% 18% 23% 26%
50–64 59% 22% 12% 37%
65+ 72% 12% 11% 60%

Devolution extent polls

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Date(s)
Conducted 		Polling organisation Support
independence (%) 		Support more
powers for
the Senedd (%) 		Support
status quo (%) 		Support fewer
powers for
the Senedd (%) 		Support abolition
of the Senedd (%) 		Indifferent/Did
not reply/Other (%)
5-25 June 2023[7] Beaufort Research / WalesOnline 16 23 25 6 17 13
12-17 May 2023[8] YouGov / Barn Cymru 13 21 20 7 20 16
3-7 February 2023[9] YouGov / Barn Cymru 15 20 21 7 20 16
25 November - 1 December 2022[10] YouGov / Barn Cymru 14 21 23 7 20 14
20-22 September 2022[10] YouGov 17 19 21 7 19 15
28 January – 21 February 2021[11] BBC / ICM Unlimited 14 35 27 3 15 6
29 May – 1 June 2020[12] ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov 16 20 24 5 22 14
4–22 February 2020[13] BBC / ICM 11 43 25 2 14 3
7–23 February 2019[14] BBC / ICM 7 46 27 3 13 4
December 2018[15] SkyData 8 40 23 4 18 7
February 2017[16] BBC / ICM 6 44 29 3 13 4
February 2016[17] BBC / ICM 6 43 30 3 13 4
February 2015[18] BBC / ICM 6 40 33 4 13 4
September 2014[19] BBC / ICM 3 49 26 2 12 6
February 2014[20] BBC / ICM 5 37 28 3 23 5
2013[21] BBC / ICM 9 36 28 2 20 4
2012[21] BBC / ICM 7 36 29 2 22 4
2011[21] BBC / ICM 11 35 18 17 15 4
2010[21] BBC / ICM 11 40 13 18 13 4

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling Organisation
& client 		Sample size Independence
(inc. sub-samples) 		No devolved government
(inc. sub-samples) 		Indifferent
/ no reply (%)
Total (%) Conservative (%) Labour (%) Lib Dem (%) Plaid Cymru (%) Total (%) Conservative (%) Labour (%) Lib Dem (%) Plaid Cymru (%)
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,021 33% 12% 45% 39% 87% 45% 79% 35% 53% 4% 21%

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Welsh Independence Poll - Support Steadily Dropping?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  2. ^ "Welsh independence polls 2023". Statista. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  3. ^ "Savanta ComRes Wales Voting Intention –29 April 2021" (PDF).
  4. ^ Axenderrie, Gareth (4 March 2021). "Polls chart rise of support for Welsh independence". The National Wales. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
  5. ^ da Silva, Chantal (2021-03-04). "Highest ever support for Welsh independence, new poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
  6. ^ Hayward, Will (2023-03-01). "Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
  7. ^ Hayward, Will (2023-07-10). "Poll shows 40% of Welsh people want either independence or more powers for Wales". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
  8. ^ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  9. ^ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  10. ^ a b "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  11. ^ "Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales". BBC News. 28 February 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  12. ^ Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "Attitudes to Devolution and Welsh Independence". Cardiff University. Retrieved 5 June 2020.
  13. ^ "St Davids Day Poll 2020". 1 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  14. ^ "Attitudes to Brexit and economy polled". BBC News. 1 March 2019.
  15. ^ Awan-Scully, Roger (20 December 2018). "Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?". Cardiff University.
  16. ^ "EU migrants should have skills, public tells BBC Wales poll". BBC News. 2017-03-01.
  17. ^ "St David's Day Poll" (PDF). blogs.cardiff.ac.uk. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  18. ^ "ICM Poll for the BBC" (PDF). www.icmunlimited.com. 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  19. ^ "'Record low' back Welsh independence - BBC/ICM poll". Wales Online. 2014-09-15. Retrieved 2014-09-19.
  20. ^ "BBC Cymru Wales poll: Few in Wales back Scottish independence". BBC News. 28 February 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
  21. ^ a b c d "Historical Polls". icmunlimited. Retrieved 2022-06-24.
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