Opinion polling on Scottish independence
Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.
Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.
Graphical summary
[edit]
Graph Methodology
The graphs include all polls from the main table, excluding those which are noted as using non-standard questions.
The date associated with each poll is the mid-point of the survey period, i.e (start+end)/2.
The centered moving averages are the averages of the last 10 polls, weighted by sample size. The date of the moving average is the weighted average poll date. The value of the moving average is variously the percentage for Yes, No, Undecided and the margin ex-undecideds of those polls.
The margin ex-undecideds value for each poll is calculated as (No-Yes)/(No+Yes).
The final chart is the distribution of a given organisations polls compared to the moving average margin ex-undecideds. The value of the moving average at the poll's date is computed by linear interpolation between adjacent values of the moving average. The difference between that value and the poll's value is shown as a distribution.
Frequently time axis dates may be in the future for long-term graphs. This is done to avoid truncation of datapoints at the edge of the chart area.
Polls using the 2014 referendum question
[edit]| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
| 30 Oct-1 Nov 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | [a] |
| 16-23 Oct 2024 | FindOutNow/Alba Party | 1,058 | 48% | 45% | 7% | 3% | [b] |
| 10-13 Sep 2024 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | [a] |
| 8-13 Sep 2024 | More in Common/ Sunday Times | 949 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 5-11 Sep 2024 | Opinium/The Times | 1,028 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 29 Aug-3 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 1,063 | 37% | 47% | 16% | 10% | [c][d][a] |
| 20-22 Aug 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 4 July 2024 | 2024 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
| 26-27 Jun 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,200 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 24-26 Jun 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,258 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
| 21-26 Jun 2024 | Survation / Ballot Box Scotland | 1,022 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
| 20-25 Jun 2024 | YouGov | 1,059 | 37% | 48% | 16% | 11% | [c] |
| 11-14 Jun 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,050 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 3-9 Jun 2024 | Ipsos | 1,150 | 49% | 47% | 4% | 2% | |
| 3-7 Jun 2024 | YouGov | 1,068 | 39% | 45% | 16% | 6% | [c] |
| 1-2 Jun 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| 24-28 May 2024 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,067 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 23-27 May 2024 | Survation/True North | 1,026 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | |
| 13-17 May 2024 | YouGov | 1,114 | 38% | 45% | 10% | 7% | [c] |
| 8-9 May 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,078 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 6–8 May 2024 | John Swinney becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
| 3-8 May 2024 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,080 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 30 Apr-3 May 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,014 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 26-29 Apr 2024 | YouGov | 1,043 | 39% | 45% | 16% | 6% | [c] |
| 9–12 Apr 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,086 | 44% | 51% | 4% | 7% | |
| 6–7 Apr 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | |
| 25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 | YouGov | 1,100 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | [c] |
| 10–11 Mar 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | |
| 3–4 Feb 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 25–31 Jan 2024 | Ipsos | 1,005 | 50% | 47% | 5% | 6% | |
| 23–25 Jan 2024 | Survation/True North | 1,029 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 22–25 Jan 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 47% | 48% | 4% | 1% | |
| 11–24 Jan 2024 | FindOutNow | 842 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
| 9–11 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,040 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 26–27 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,054 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 20–26 Nov 2023 | Ipsos Scotland | 1,000 | 51% | 43% | 5% | 8% | |
| 29–30 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,092 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
| 20–25 Oct 2023 | YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,244 | 38% | 46% | 11% | 8% | [e] |
| 6–18 Oct 2023 | Focaldata/Scotland in Union | 1,037 | 40% | 48% | 9% | 8% | [f] |
| 6–11 Oct 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,002 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 2–5 Oct 2023 | Panelbase | 1,022 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 4–5 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,095 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 8–12 Sep 2023 | YouGov | 1,103 | 39% | 44% | 14% | 5% | [c] |
| 5–14 Sep 2023 | Opinium/Tony Blair Institute | 1,004 | 45% | 41% | 9% | 4% | [g] |
| 5–11 Sep 2023 | Find Out Now/Independent Voices | 1,402 | 49% | 46% | 4% | 4% | [h] |
| 2–4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | |
| 15–18 Aug 2023 | Survation | 1,002 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 3–8 Aug 2023 | YouGov | 1,086 | 42% | 44% | 8% | 2% | |
| 5–6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,050 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 1–2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,030 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 26–29 Jun 2023 | Yougov | 1,100 | 37% | 46% | 9% | 9% | |
| 23–28 Jun 2023 | Survation | 1,915 | 42% | 47% | 10% | 5% | |
| 13–20 Jun 2023 | Find Out Now/Independent Voices | 1,035 | 48% | 45% | 7% | 3% | [i] |
| 12–15 Jun 2023 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,007 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
| 9–14 Jun 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,018 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 9–13 Jun 2023 | YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,244 | 36% | 46% | 11% | 10% | |
| 7–12 Jun 2023 | Find Out Now/Alba Party | 558 | 43% | 39% | 11% | 4% | [j][k] |
| 3–5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,466 | 43% | 50% | 7% | 7% | |
| 15–21 May 2023 | Ipsos/STV | 1,100 | 51% | 45% | 4% | 6% | |
| 27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Survation/True North | 1,009 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 30 Apr – 2 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,244 | 42% | 52% | 6% | 10% | |
| 17–20 Apr 2023 | YouGov/ The Times | 1,032 | 39% | 45% | 9% | 6% | |
| 29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | Survation | 1,007 | 42% | 47% | 10% | 5% | |
| 31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
| 28–31 Mar 2023 | Savanta/Scotsman | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 28–30 Mar 2023 | Panelbase/ The Sunday Times | 1,089 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| 27–29 Mar 2023 | Humza Yousaf becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
| 9–13 Mar 2023 | YouGov/Sky News | 1,002 | 39% | 47% | 10% | 8% | |
| 8–10 Mar 2023 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,037 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | [l] |
| 7–10 Mar 2023 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,013 | 45% | 49% | 5% | 4% | |
| 1–9 Mar 2023 | Find Out Now/Scot Goes Pop | 1,266 | 50% | 46% | 4% | 4% | |
| 2–5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies[1] | 1,050 | 42% | 51% | 8% | 9% | |
| 22–23 Feb 2023 | TechneUK | 502 | 39% | 47% | 14% | 8% | [m] |
| 17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
| 15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 44% | 46% | 9% | 2% | |
| 15 Feb 2023 | Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
| 10–15 Feb 2023 | YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,239 | 40% | 48% | 8% | 8% | |
| 1–7 Feb 2023 | Survation | 1,070 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
| 6–13 Feb 2023 | Panelbase/Believe in Scotland | 2,006 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 26 Jan – 3 Feb 2023 | Lord Ashcroft | 2,105 | 37% | 48% | 12% | 11% | [n] |
| 23–26 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,088 | 40% | 46% | 10% | 6% | |
| 11–18 Jan 2023 | FindOutNow/The National | 1,094 | 52% | 44% | 3% | 8% | |
| 17 Jan 2023 | UK Government blocks Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998 | ||||||
| 10–12 Jan 2023 | Survation/TrueNorth | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 11% | 6% | |
| 16–21 Dec 2022 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,048 | 44% | 46% | 9% | 2% | |
| 12–16 Dec 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,004 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
| 6–9 Dec 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,090 | 47% | 42% | 8% | 5% | |
| 1–8 Dec 2022 | FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus | 1,094 | 51% | 43% | 6% | 8% | |
| 28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos/STV | 1,065 | 53% | 42% | 4% | 11% | |
| 26–27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | |
| 22–25 Nov 2022 | YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,210 | 43% | 42% | 8% | 1% | |
| 23 Nov 2022 | Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum | ||||||
| 25 Oct 2022 | Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 20 Oct 2022 | Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 13–19 Oct 2022 | Ipsos | 2,086 | 50% | 43% | 4% | 7% | [o] |
| 7–10 Oct 2022 | Panelbase/Alba Party | 1,018 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| 5–7 Oct 2022 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,017 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
| 30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 7% | 2% | |
| 30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,029 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | |
| 14–16 Sep 2022 | Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland | 659 | 42% | 47% | 7% | 5% | [p] |
| 8 Sep 2022 | Elizabeth II dies and is succeeded by her son, Charles III | ||||||
| 6 Sep 2022 | Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 17–19 Aug 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,133 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 7 July 2022 | Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,010 | 48% | 47% | 5% | 1% | |
| 29–30 Jun 2022 | Techne UK | 501 | 39% | 45% | 15% | 6% | [q] |
| 28 Jun 2022 | Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023 | ||||||
| 23–28 Jun 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,029 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% | |
| 23–29 May 2022 | Ipsos/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | |
| 18–23 May 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,115 | 38% | 46% | 11% | 8% | |
| 5 May 2022 | 2022 Scottish local elections | ||||||
| 26 Apr–3 May 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,010 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | |
| 26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | |
| 25–31 Mar 2022 | BMG/Herald | 1,012 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
| 25–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/TheseIslands | 519 | 39% | 44% | 13% | 5% | [r] |
| 24–28 Mar 2022 | Survation/Ballot Box Scotland | 1,002 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | |
| 10–16 Mar 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,008 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
| 24–28 Feb 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Economist | 1,651 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
| 24 Feb 2022 | 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine | ||||||
| 3–9 Feb 2022 | Ipsos | 1,163 | 50% | 43% | 6% | 7% | [s] |
| 14–18 Jan 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 46% | 46% | 8% | Tied | |
| 15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium/Daily Record | 1,328 | 44% | 44% | 12% | Tied | [t] |
| 22–29 Nov 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,107 | 52% | 43% | 4% | 9% | |
| 18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,060 | 40% | 46% | 14% | 6% | |
| 9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,781 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 20–26 Oct 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,001 | 44% | 50% | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 3–9 Sep 2021 | Savanta ComRes Sunday Times | 1,016 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 1–8 Sep 2021 | Stack Data Strategy/UKonward | 1,007 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 3–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,014 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | |
| 4–5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,287 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 11–14 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday | 1,003 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
| 7–8 May 2021 | Stack Data/Our Scottish Future | 1,000 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | [u] |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
| 30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
| 2–4 May 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,144 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | |
| 30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,008 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 28 Apr–3 May 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,015 | 45% | 45% | 8% | Tied | |
| 30 Apr–3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,502 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
| 28–30 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,096 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
| 27–30 Apr 2021 | BMG/Herald | 1,023 | 47% | 47% | 7% | Tied | |
| 23–27 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
| 23–26 Apr 2021 | Survation/Good Morning Britain | 1,008 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | |
| 21–26 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,075 | 47% | 48% | 6% | 1% | |
| 21–23 Apr 2021 | Survation/These Islands | 1,006 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% | |
| 20–22 Apr 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,037 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
| 16–20 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
| 16–20 Apr 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,204 | 39% | 45% | 16% | 6% | |
| 7–19 Apr 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 2,017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | [n] |
| 9–12 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Believe in Scotland | 1,002 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 2% | |
| 2–7 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,007 | 45% | 45% | 9% | Tied | |
| 1–6 Apr 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,023 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 2% | |
| 29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,038 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
| 30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 48% | 47% | 5% | 1% | |
| 29–30 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,021 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | |
| 23–26 Mar 2021 | Find Out Now/Daily Express | 1,022 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
| 16–19 Mar 2021 | BMG/Herald | 1,021 | 49% | 46% | 5% | 3% | |
| 11–18 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 2,047 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
| 11–16 Mar 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,096 | 45% | 43% | 8% | 2% | |
| 5–10 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 5–9 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy | 1,502 | 50% | 43% | 8% | 6% | |
| 4–8 Mar 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,100 | 41% | 43% | 14% | 2% | |
| 4–5 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,015 | 43% | 46% | 10% | 3% | [v] |
| 3–5 Mar 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,013 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Daily Express | 1,004 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
| 12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy | 3,946 | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% | |
| 27 Feb 2021 | Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
| 25–26 Feb 2021 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
| 18–22 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/ITV News | 1,008 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
| 15–21 Feb 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,031 | 48% | 44% | 7% | 4% | |
| 4–9 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,002 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | [w] |
| 19–22 Jan 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,206 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
| 11–13 Jan 2021 | Survation/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | |
| 8–13 Jan 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,016 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | [w] |
| 31 Dec 2020 | The post-Brexit transition period ends | ||||||
| 11–15 Dec 2020 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,013 | 49% | 39% | 12% | 10% | [w] |
| 8 Dec 2020 | COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences | ||||||
| 2–7 Dec 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | |
| 20–26 Nov 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 51% | 41% | 8% | 10% | |
| 5–11 Nov 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 51% | 40% | 8% | 11% | |
| 6–10 Nov 2020 | YouGov | 1,089 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
| 28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 | Survation | 1,071 | 47% | 40% | 13% | 7% | |
| 2–9 Oct 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,045 | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | |
| 9 Oct 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 1,003 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
| 25 Sep–5 Oct 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,093 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | [x] |
| 17–21 Sep 2020 | JL Partners | 1,016 | 51% | 40% | 7% | 11% | [y] |
| 2–7 Sep 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 46% | 40% | 13% | 6% | |
| 12–18 Aug 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,011 | 51% | 42% | 7% | 9% | |
| 6–13 Aug 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 1,008 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | |
| 6–10 Aug 2020 | YouGov/The Times | 1,142 | 45% | 40% | 9% | 5% | |
| 5 Aug 2020 | Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
| 30 Jul 2020 | Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
| 30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,026 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
| 15–19 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,070 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
| 1–5 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,022 | 48% | 45% | 8% | 3% | |
| 1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,086 | 46% | 46% | 7% | Tied | |
| 24–26 Mar 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,023 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 1 March 2020 | COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland | ||||||
| 14 Feb 2020 | Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
| 7–14 Feb 2020 | YouGov/Hanbury Strategy | 2,587 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | [z][aa] |
| 31 Jan 2020 | The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | ||||||
| 28–31 Jan 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,016 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | |
| 22–27 Jan 2020 | YouGov | 1,039 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
| 20–22 Jan 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 1,019 | 45% | 45% | 10% | Tied | |
| 12 Dec 2019 | 2019 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
| 10–11 Dec 2019 | Survation/The Courier | 1,012 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 3–6 Dec 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
| 3–6 Dec 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,008 | 38% | 48% | 12% | 10% | |
| 19–25 Nov 2019 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,046 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
| 20–22 Nov 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | |
| 9–11 Oct 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,003 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,032 | 40% | 51% | 9% | 11% | [ab] |
| 30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,059 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
| 29 Aug 2019 | Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
| 30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 | Lord Ashcroft | 1,019 | 46% | 43% | 12% | 3% | [n][z] |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 18–20 Jun 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
| 24 May 2019 | Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election | ||||||
| 14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 24–26 Apr 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,029 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
| 18–24 Apr 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,018 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
| 15–21 Mar 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,041 | 35% | 56% | 8% | 21% | [ac] |
| 30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,028 | 45% | 51% | 4% | 6% | |
| 2–7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase/Constitutional Commission | 1,050 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
| 18–21 Oct 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 41% | 51% | 7% | 10% | |
| 3–5 Oct 2018 | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | |
| 28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 11% | |
| 28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
| 24–29 Aug 2018 | Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain | 1,022 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | [ad] |
| 5–10 Jul 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [z] |
| 8–13 Jun 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
| 1–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 41% | 50% | 6% | 9% | |
| 30 May–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/Future of England | 1,052 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [ae][z] |
| 23–28 Mar 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,037 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
| 5–11 Mar 2018 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,050 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | [z] |
| 24–28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
| 12–16 Jan 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 37% | 50% | 10% | 13% | [z] |
| 1–5 Dec 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
| 27–30 Nov 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
| 2–5 Oct 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 39% | 50% | 7% | 11% | [z] |
| 8–12 Sep 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
| 31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 13% | |
| 9–13 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,037 | 39% | 53% | 7% | 14% | |
| 8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
| 6–7 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | |
| 2–7 Jun 2017 | Panelbase/TheTimes | 1,106 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
| 1–5 Jun 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,093 | 38% | 50% | 8% | 12% | [z] |
| 31 May–2 Jun 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,024 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
| 22–27 May 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,016 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | [z] |
| 15–18 May 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 39% | 49% | 8% | 10% | [z] |
| 4 May 2017 | 2017 Scottish local elections | ||||||
| 24–27 Apr 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 40% | 49% | 8% | 9% | [z] |
| 18–21 Apr 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,029 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
| 18–21 Apr 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,018 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | [z] |
| 7–11 Apr 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,041 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
| 29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 | Kantar | 1,060 | 37% | 55% | 8% | 18% | |
| 13–17 Mar 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,008 | 42% | 53% | 5% | 11% | |
| 9–14 Mar 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 37% | 48% | 11% | 11% | [z] |
| 8–13 Mar 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,019 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | |
| 13 Mar 2017 | Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum | ||||||
| 24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,029 | 47% | 46% | 6% | 1% | |
| 23–27 Feb 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,009 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 3% | |
| 7–13 Feb 2017 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,028 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 7% | |
| 26–31 Jan 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 10% | 2% | |
| 20–26 Jan 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
| 9–16 Dec 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,002 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | |
| 29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 | YouGov | 3,166 | 39% | 47% | 11% | 8% | [z] |
| 24–29 Nov 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | |
| 9–15 Sep 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
| 5–11 Sep 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
| 5–10 Sep 2016 | Survation | 1,073 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
| 10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 | TNS | 1,047 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | |
| 29–31 Aug 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 40% | 46% | 13% | 6% | [z] |
| 20–25 Jul 2016 | YouGov | 1,005 | 40% | 45% | 14% | 5% | [z] |
| 13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 24–28 Jun 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | |
| 25–26 Jun 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 626 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | [af] |
| 25 Jun 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 48% | 41% | 9% | 7% | |
| 24 Jun 2016 | David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
| 23 Jun 2016 | 2016 EU membership referendum | ||||||
| 5 May 2016 | 2016 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
| 2–4 May 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,445 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | |
| 23–28 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,074 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | |
| 15–20 Apr 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,005 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 6–15 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 51% | 5% | 6% | |
| 7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,012 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | |
| 10–17 Mar 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,051 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 7–9 Mar 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,070 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | |
| 25–29 Feb 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,022 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
| 11–16 Feb 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 42% | 48% | 9% | 6% | |
| 1–7 Feb 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | |
| 1–4 Feb 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,022 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
| 8–14 Jan 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,053 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
| 8–12 Jan 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
| 6–13 Nov 2015 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,074 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | |
| 9–13 Oct 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,026 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 7–10 Sep 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
| 7–10 Sep 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
| 4–10 Sep 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,005 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | |
| 12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 | TNS | 1,023 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
| 24–30 Aug 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 53% | 44% | 3% | 9% | |
| 3–7 Jul 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,084 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,002 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
| 19–21 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Post | 1,108 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
| 7 May 2015 | 2015 United Kingdom general election. | ||||||
| 3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
| 29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
| 22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
| 20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
| 8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 3% | |
| 13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | |
| 12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 45% | 43% | 11% | 2% | |
| 10–12 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 45% | 48% | 8% | 3% | |
| 12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
| 29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
| 9–11 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
| 9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
| 27 Nov 2014 | Release of Smith Commission report. | ||||||
| 19 Nov 2014 | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland. | ||||||
| 6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
| 30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 982 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | |
| 27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
| 18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% | ||
Other polling formats
[edit]Polls using Remain / Leave Question
[edit]Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? | Lead | Notes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leave | Remain | Undecided | ||||||
| 27-29 Aug 2024 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,021 | 37% | 54% | 8% | 17% | ||
| 6-18 Oct 2023 | Focaldata/These Islands | 1,037 | 33% | 55% | 13% | 22% | ||
| 22 Dec-01 Jan 2023 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,025 | 37% | 54% | 9% | 17% | ||
| 28–29 Sep 2022 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 36% | 51% | 13% | 15% | ||
| 29 Apr–3 May 2022 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,050 | 38% | 52% | 11% | 14% | ||
| 25–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/These Islands | 510 | 35% | 50% | 9% | 15% | [ag] | |
| 18–22 Nov 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,045 | 38% | 54% | 8% | 16% | ||
| 31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 39% | 52% | 9% | 13% | ||
| 9–12 Mar 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 37% | 49% | 10% | 12% | ||
| 10–12 Sep 2020 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,008 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 10% | ||
| 12–16 Sep 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,003 | 38% | 55% | 9% | 17% | ||
| 18–23 Apr 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,012 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | ||
| 9–13 Nov 2018 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,013 | 36% | 55% | 9% | 19% | ||
| 28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,010 | 39% | 47% | 15% | 8% | ||
| 18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% | |||
Polls on a "de facto" referendum
[edit]On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the 2024 United Kingdom general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Grn | Lab | Con | Lib | Other | Undecided | Lead (overall lead) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 36% | — | 29% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 10% | 15% | [ah] |
| 11–18 Jan 2023 | FindOutNow/The National | 1,094 | 52% | 2% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 4% | — | 12% | [ai] |
| 10-12 Jan 2023 | Survation/True North | 1,002 | 38% | — | 22% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 6% | [aj] |
| 16-21 Dec 2022 | Savanta/Scotsman | 1,048 | 37% | — | 27% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 10% | 13% | [ak] |
| 28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,065 | 53% | 2% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | — | 12% | [al] |
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov 2022 | Find Out Now/Channel 4 News | 1,006 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 17% | [am] |
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
[edit]Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
Issues around a second independence referendum
[edit]Timing of a second referendum
[edit]Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | Lead | Notes | |||||||||||||||
| In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | No Referendum | |||||||||||||||
| Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
| 8 - 13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | 1,103 | 27% | 62% | 11% | 45% | 43% | 12% | [an] | |||||||||||
| 2 - 4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 42% | 42% | 12% | 42% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 5 - 6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 41% | 40% | 15% | 44% | 39% | 13% | ||||||||||||
| 1 - 2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,030 | 41% | 40% | 12% | 41% | 38% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 26 - 29 Jun 2023 | YouGov | 1,100 | 45% | 42% | 13% | [ao] | ||||||||||||||
| 3 - 5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,466 | 42% | 40% | 13% | 42% | 39% | 15% | ||||||||||||
| 30 Apr- 2 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1295 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 39% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 17-20 Apr 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 20% | 69% | 12% | 44% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,008 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 43% | 41% | 16% | ||||||||||||
| 2-5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 34% | 49% | 18% | 37% | 44% | 20% | ||||||||||||
| 17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 22% | 68% | 10% | 45% | 44% | 11% | ||||||||||||
| 23-26 Jan 2023 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,088 | 28% | 62% | 10% | 47% | 42% | 10% | ||||||||||||
| 26-27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 46% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
| 18–23 May 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,115 | 27% | 60% | 13% | 21% | 68% | 11% | 46% | 41% | 13% | |||||||||
| 26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 24% | 31% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
| 29–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/These Islands | 1.029 | 36% | 53% | 12% | 17% | ||||||||||||||
| 18-22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/Times | 1,060 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 28% | 55% | 17% | 44% | 41% | 15% | |||||||||
| 9-12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,781 | 19% | 34% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
| 22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 14% | 17% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 48% | [ap] | |||||||||||
| 18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 41% | 42% | 17% | ||||||||||||
| 6-10 Sept 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 17% | 36% | 47% | 6% | ||||||||||||||
| 31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 38% | 52% | 9% | 14% | ||||||||||||||
| 4-5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 42% | 40% | 17% | ||||||||||||
| 16-24 June 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,287 | 19% | 35% | 46% | 8% | ||||||||||||||
| 28-30 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,096 | 22% | 33% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
| 30 Mar-1 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 25% | 29% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
| 3-5 March 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,013 | 25% | 30% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum
[edit]| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should the Scottish Government, need to get permission from the UK Government to run a referendum on Scottish independence? | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Should | Should Not | Undecided | ||||
| 26-29 Jun 2023 | Yougov | 1,100 | 40% | 50% | 10% | |
| 17-20 Apr 2023 | YouGov | 1.032 | 39% | 51% | 10% | |
| 17-20 Feb 2023 | YouGov | 1,017 | 40% | 51% | 9% | |
UK-wide polling
[edit]Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.
Polls using 2014 referendum question
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
| 22–23 Feb 2023 | TechneUK | 1,633 | 9% | 71% | 20% | 62% | |
| 19-21 Jan 2023 | DeltaPoll/Mail on Sunday | 1,563 | 25% | 40% | 15% | 15% | |
| 29-30 June 2022 | Techne | 1,614 | 10% | 69% | 21% | 59% | |
| 18 Jun–2 Jul 2021 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 3,891 | 17% | 54% | 29% | 37% | |
On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? | Lead | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | Undecided/Dont Know | |||||
| 29–2 Dec 2022 | Omnisis/Byline Times | 1,189 | 42% | 35% | 23% | 7% | [aq] |
Polling on a second referendum
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should there be a Referendum on Scottish Independence? | Lead | Notes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No | Undecided/Dont Know | |||||
| 19-21 Jan 2023 | Deltapoll/Mail On Sunday | 1,563 | 29% | 48% | 28% | 19% | [ar] |
Timing of a Second Independence Referendum
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | No Referendum | Lead | Notes | ||||||||||||||
| In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | ||||||||||||||||
| Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
| 18/6 - 2/7/21 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 3891 | 18% | 27% | 55% | |||||||||||||||
British Social Attitudes Survey
[edit]| Year | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | No Parliament |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 54% | 15% |
| 2020 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 24% | 54% | 14% |
| 2017 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 22% | 55% | 15% |
| 2015 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 49% | 20% |
| 2013 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 20% | 49% | 18% |
| 2012 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 43% | 23% |
| 2011 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 26% | 44% | 19% |
| 2007 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 48% | 18% |
| 2003 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 17% | 58% | 13% |
| 2002 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 15% |
| 2001 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 60% | 11% |
| 2000 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 17% |
| 1999 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 21% | 57% | 14% |
| 1997 | British Election Study | 14% | 55% | 23% |
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum
- Opinion polling on a United Ireland
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c This poll uses the 2014 result to weight it's samples, findings may overstate No vote %.
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ a b c d e f g The figure listed for don't know includes respondents who would not vote and refused to answer.
- ^ This poll does not weigh for likelihood to vote
- ^ Yougov advise that this series of polls should not be compared to its usual polling, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45269-nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots
- ^ Unusually this poll asked the Indy Q twice in the same poll, of samples of just over 500 each and then merged them together, questions should be borne in mind as to the margin of error for what is essentially 2 smaller polls
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down" https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
- ^ a b c Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
- ^ Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
- ^ The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
- ^ a b c Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
- ^ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
- ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
- ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
- ^ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
- ^ Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
- ^ Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
- ^ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
- ^ Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the 2024 UK general election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? /Which party are you most inclined to support?"
- ^ Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
- ^ The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
- ^ The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
- ^ Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
- ^ Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
- ^ Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence?"
References
[edit]- ^ Strategies, Redfield & Wilton (4 April 2023). "Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March - 1 April 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Retrieved 16 April 2023.
- ^ https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf
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