October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
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All 240 seats in the National Assembly 121 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 37.62% ( 4.22pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
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Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 27 October 2024,[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. This was the country's sixth snap election since 2021. This series of snap elections is the result of a political crisis affecting the country.
Background
[edit]Elections and government breakdown
[edit]Following several snap elections, the National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[5][6]
On 22 May 2023 the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,[8][9][10][11] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,[12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[13][14]
June elections
[edit]The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.[3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.[15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.[17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.[18][19][20]
As a consequence, President Rumen Radev instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister on 9 August.[21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.[22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by President Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.[23]
Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,[24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.[25][26]
Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election
[edit]One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[27]
The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[28]
A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[29]
As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:
| Composition of the 50th Parliament (by the end of July 2024)[30] 
|
Electoral system
[edit]The 240 members of the National Assembly were elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold was 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[31][32]
Parties
[edit]Contesting parties and coalitions
[edit]Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[33][34] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties in the coalitions according to the electoral commission, but they are key groups in each alliance.
It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.[35] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.[36]
DPS leadership dispute
[edit]On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.[37][38][39] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,[8] and gained control of the official party website.[40] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.[29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,[41] DPS – A New Beginning[42] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,[43] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.[6][44] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS–Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.[45] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.[46]
Campaign
[edit]Ten days prior to the election, it was reported that 1.2 million BGN (US $680k) was spent on advertising in the media, with ITN spending the most, DPS–Peevski second most, and BPS–OL third.[47]
Campaign slogans and websites
[edit]The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the election:
| Party or coalition | Slogan | Website | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOST | For a better future | N/A | |
| People's Voice | For a future without political garbage! For a more clean and sacred (republic)! | N/A | |
| SP "Bulgarian Way" | N/A | Website | |
| Greatness | From the ashes - to the sun | Website | |
| Bulgars | Bulgaria above all! | Website | |
| My Country Bulgaria | Unity creates strength! | N/A | |
| There is Such a People | The logical choice | Website | |
| DPS – A New Beginning | It's time for a new beginning | Website | |
| Brigade | To Save Bulgaria | N/A | |
| Party of the Greens | Vote for the Greens with No. 10 | Website | |
| Pravoto | Give a chance for yourself... Vote for Legality! | Website | |
| Revival | Enough experiments! Its time for Revival! | Website | |
| Alliance for Rights and Freedoms | To defend democracy and statehood! | Website | |
| BNS–ND | N/A | Website | |
| Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy | The system has completely failed! It is time for change to come! | Website | |
| Blue Bulgaria | Believe strongly, act decisively. | Website | |
| Morality, Unity, Honour | MECH or the mafia! | Website | |
| GERB–SDS | Security and stability. | Website | |
| Attack | The attack continues[48] | N/A | |
| Truth and Only Truth | Immediate change | N/A | |
| Direct Democracy | New system | Website | |
| Free Voters | Responsible choice | N/A | |
| Bulgaria of Labor and Reason | For an independent Bulgaria of labour and reason outside the EU and NATO | Website | |
| Competence, Responsibility and Truth | Who will return our fatherland? | N/A | |
| Russophiles for Bulgaria | Bulgaria is stronger together with Russia! | Wesbite | |
| PP–DB | Lets care for Bulgaria. | Website | |
| BSP – United Left | Time for decisions | Website | |
Opinion polls
[edit]
The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.
121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample | GERB–SDS | DPS | PP–DB | Vaz | BSP–OL | ITN | Vel | MECh | SB | Others | NOTA | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS | DPS–NN | BSP | L! | IsBg | |||||||||||||
| Alpha Research | 20–23 Oct | 1,000 | 26.5 76 |
7.9 23 |
7.4 21 |
14.9 42 |
14.2 40 |
7.2 21 |
6.1 17 |
2.6 0 |
3.8 0 |
2.7 0 |
6.7 | 3.0[a] | 11.6 | ||
| Exacta | 19–22 Oct | 1,070 | 26.7 76 |
8.1 23 |
7.3 21 |
14.6 41 |
14.3 41 |
7.5 21 |
6 17 |
2.6 0 |
3.7 0 |
2.8 0 |
6.3 | 2.0[a] | 12.1 | ||
| Trend | 16–22 Oct | 1,002 | 24.9 70 |
7.8 21 |
7 19 |
14.8 41 |
15.2 42 |
6.5 18 |
6.6 18 |
3.6 0 |
4 11 |
1.7 0 |
7.9 | 4.3[a] | 9.7 | ||
| Gallup International | 10–21 Oct | 1,007 | 26.1 70 |
7.8 21 |
7.6 20 |
16.2 43 |
14.9 40 |
7.1 19 |
6.2 16 |
3.8 0 |
4.1 11 |
1.2 0 |
4.9 | 3.4[a] | 9.9 | ||
| MarketLinks | 15–20 Oct | 1,014 | 27.2 71 |
9.3 23 |
8.1 21 |
16.0 42 |
14.9 39 |
7.9 20 |
5.2 14 |
4.1 10 |
1.8 0 |
3.1 0 |
2.0 | 2.7[a] | 11.2 | ||
| Sova Haris | 11–17 Oct | 800 | 25.6 68 |
8.7 23 |
6.5 17 |
14.7 39 |
14.5 38 |
9.8 26 |
6.8 18 |
4.2 11 |
3.1 0 |
1.6 0 |
4.1 | 2.6[a] | 11.2 | ||
| Mediana | 8–13 Oct | 978 | 27.7 74 |
9.8 25 |
5.6 15 |
13.9 37 |
15.5 41 |
10.0 26 |
7.9 21 |
– | 2.7 0 |
3.4 0 |
3.7 | 11.4[a] | 12.2 | ||
| Gallup International | 28 Sep – 6 Oct | 806 | 25.7 72 |
8.3 23 |
6.9 19 |
16.6 46 |
15.4 43 |
7.1 20 |
6.3 17 |
3.2 0 |
3.8 0 |
1.1 0 |
5.7 | 3.1[a] | 9.1 | ||
| Market Links | 25 Sep – 1 Oct | 1,011 | 27.1 78 |
9.9 29 |
7.5 22 |
16.5 48 |
15.6 45 |
6.2 18 |
3.99 0 |
3.8 0 |
– | – | 9.8 | 2.4[a] | 10.6 | ||
| Trend | 17–24 Sep 2024 | 1,003 | 24.8 72 |
8.5 24 |
5.8 16 |
15.1 43 |
15.6 45 |
6.9 20 |
6.9 20 |
3.4 0 |
3.5 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.9 | 3.9[a] | 9.2 | ||
| Alpha Research | 18–24 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 26.0 75 |
8.6 24 |
6.6 19 |
15.7 44 |
15.4 43 |
6.8 19 |
5.9 16 |
3.5 0 |
3.0 0 |
2.8 0 |
5.5 | 2.6[a] | 10.3 | ||
| 11 Sep 2024 | DPS splits into APS and DPS–NN | ||||||||||||||||
| Market Links | 14–23 Aug 2024 | 1,038 | 26.2 76 |
18.4 53 |
17.1 50 |
13.7 40 |
7.4 21 |
– | – | 3.8 0 |
2.4 0 |
– | – | 8.0 | 3.0 | 7.8 | |
| Gallup International | 1–9 Aug 2024 | 802 | 25.2 74 |
14.5 42 |
15.2 44 |
14.2 41 |
7.3 21 |
– | – | 6.2 18 |
3.6 0 |
3.4 0 |
– | 10.4 | 2.5[a] | 10.0 | |
| Market Links | 20–28 Jul 2024 | 1,008 | 25.8 71 |
14.4 40 |
17.2 47 |
12.3 34 |
7.7 21 |
– | – | 5.8 16 |
4.2 11 |
– | – | 8.6 | 2.8 | 8.6 | |
| Market Links | 18–25 Jun 2024 | 1,014 | 24.4 66 |
18.3 50 |
16.2 44 |
13.8 38 |
5.3 14 |
– | – | 5.4 15 |
5.0 13 |
– | – | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | |
| June 2024 election results | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 24.7 68 |
17.1 47 |
14.3 39 |
13.8 38 |
7.1 19 |
0.7 0 |
1.5[b] 0 |
6.0 16 |
4.7 13 |
3.0 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.7 | –[c] | 7.4 | |
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
- ^ As Solidary Bulgaria.
- ^ In official election results, None of the above votes don’t count as a proportion of the total vote. In the June 2024 election, they reached a total number of 63,913 or approximately 2.9%, if measured proportionally.
Conduct
[edit]Allegations of vote buying are common occurrences in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,[49] with allegations of vote buying happening more often in rural areas, which have more poverty and people who are less educated.[50] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN (US $286) per vote.[51] One of the leaders of the list for DPS–Peevski appeared to admit to vote buying in a social media poll.[52]
The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.[53] A national police operation that was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.[54] On 18 October, Ilkov said his ministry had received 259 allegations of vote buying.[55]
Deutsche Welle received reports, especially in Kardzhali Province, that DPS–Peevski was pressuring people to vote for the party in fear of losing their jobs, with already 60 jobs lost in the municipal administration. They also reported that Peevski personally was paying for various small-scale public repairs.[56]
Dzheyhan Ibryamov case
[edit]On 2 October, the lead candidate of DPS–Dogan in Shumen, Dzheyhan Ibryamov, was arrested by the Prosecutors Office on the charge of attempting to buy vote and influence peddling.[57] Following a request by the Prosecutors Office, the CEC and Chairwoman of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan, agreed to lift Ibryamov's immunity as a candidate in the elections.[58] Despite the criminal case against him and his arrest, Ibryamov was still authorised to participate in the elections.[59]
The arrest and criminal prosecution of Ibryamov provoked negative reactions from key DPS–Dogan figures, with the coalition de facto leader, Dzhevdet Chakarov, calling for the cancellation of the upcoming elections.[60]
Post-result reports
[edit]In identified polling stations with a risk of high levels of controlled or bought votes, GERB and DPS–Peevski were the leading parties.[61]
According to the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment, there were 827 polling stations with this risk, and bTV reported some voters in Blagoevgrad did not deny that there was vote buying occurring.[62] The coordinator of the 'You Count' organisation, which asks voters to report election misconduct, claimed that there were entire municipalities at risk of high levels of bought and controlled votes. He claimed the results did not reflect the will of the Bulgarian citizens because the results were so skewed.[63]
An investigation was released on the state broadcaster, BNT, claimed to show that discrepancies of up to 100 votes in one electoral district, as well as other malpractices elsewhere.[64]
The Caretaker Government, in its official report, stated that they believe that the elections had taken place in a free and fair environment, and cited positive comments made by international electoral observers.[65] In a briefing shortly after the elections, Caretaker Minister of the Interior Atanas Ilkov claimed that no serious differences in the level of vote-buying had been noted by the Ministry and that there was no evidence of the use of state institutions in order to influence the elections outcome.[66]
Results
[edit]Exit polls showed a GERB victory with 26.4% of the vote, with the PP getting 14.9%, and Revival 12.9%.[67]
The following table outlines the partial results by party. The national threshold at 4% is calculated using total votes for parties and independent candidates only, and not the total of valid votes, which include "None of the above" votes. Velichie missed out on reaching the electoral threshold by less than 30 votes, and therefore lost its parliamentary representation.
As of 22:03 Eastern European Time (UTC+02:00) on 27 October 2024, exit polls showed GERB–SDS was projected to win 65 to 76 seats, with PP–DB securing 37 to 42 seats and Revival claiming 35 to 36 seats. Parallel vote tabulation showed slightly different projections: 63 to 69 for GERB–SDS, 35 to 38 for PP–DB and 35 to 36 for Revival.[68]
Maps
[edit]-
Most voted-for party by province -
GERB-SDS's results by province -
PP-DB's results by province -
DPS-NN's results by province
-
Winning party by abroad countries
Aftermath
[edit]Government formation
[edit]Following the results, the parliament remained fragmented, with no clear pre-existing majority being evident.[69]
Borisov, GERB's leader, claimed victory following the elections and declared that he would be willing to cooperate with all parties except for Revival, if they were willing to support GERB's program.[70] Speaking at GERB's National Forum meant to discuss the election results, Borisov predicted that new elections were the most likely outcome of the next National Assembly.[71]
PP–DB, which finished second, called for a cordon sanitaire around DPS–Peevski, and urged all parties to sign an agreement to this effect, which would also include a committment to support anti-corruption legislation and judicial reform. PP co-leader Kiril Petkov stated that signing this joint-declaration was a pre-condition for their negotiation with any of the other parties.[72] The call to exclude Peevski from future governing arrangements was supported by DPS–Dogan,[73] which pushed for a Euro-Atlanticist majority without DPS–Peevski.[74] Specifically, Dogan himself said his DPS wing could support a GERB–PP–DB government.[75] ITN also supported the statement on the condition that PP–DB would agree to fix the electoral rolls,[76] which they did.[77] GERB rejected the concept of signing agreements prior to negotiations.[78] Peevski, for his part, argued that the attempts to exclude his party were undemocratic and implied that they were an attempt to sideline the interests of Bulgarian ethnic minority voters.[79]
The BSP, in a statement after the election, did not explicitly rule out participation in a government with any of the other parliamentary represented parties, however made clear that any decision about government participation would have to be taken by all parts of the party and broader coalition.[80]
The leader of the newest parliamentary party, MECh, Radostin Vasilev initially proposed a coalition excluding GERB and both wings of the DPS, where MECh would take the interior ministry.[81]
Coalition options
[edit]The Bulgarian news network Dnevnik suggested the following options were possibilities following the results and considering the positions of the parties:[82]
| Coalition Partners | Seats | Status in the National Assembly | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GERB, PP–DB, APS | 69+37+19
|
Majority (125/240) | |
| GERB, PP–DB, BSP | 69+37+20
|
Majority (126/240) | |
| GERB, PP–DB, ITN | 69+37+18
|
Majority (124/240) | |
| GERB, PP–DB, BSP, APS, ITN | 69+37+20+19+18
|
Qualified majority (163/240) | This coalition could exclude one of the latter three parties and still retain a majority. |
| GERB, BSP, APS, ITN | 69+20+19+18
|
Majority (126/240) | |
| GERB | 69
|
Minority (69/240) | A minority GERB cabinet, which would require 62 votes in favour and a majority including abstentions. |
Election of the speaker
[edit]The election of the speaker of the National Assembly was previously used as GERB as a key part of coalition negotiations. GERB again declared that as the largest party, they should elect the speaker and his party would not partake in coalition talks if this was not to be the case.[83] PP–DB had previously stated they would not vote to elect a GERB speaker.[84]
Contestation of the results and election conduct
[edit]Velichie, which according to the results remained just below the 4% threshold, alleged that the elections had been rigged against them and promised to contest the election results.[85] They specifically accused GERB and DPS–Peevski of electoral fraud.[86] The party staged protests in Sofia for multiple days in a row calling for the annulment of the results.[87] There were reports that enough votes to put Velichie into the Assembly were misallocated to other parties in the vote count.[88]
The conduct of the election had allegations of mass vote buying and voter manipulation, leading civil society organisations to call for the annulment of the results.[89] President Rumen Radev noted the large amount of evidence supporting allegations of mass vote buying and called on the Ministry of Interior to reveal which parties were most complicit in the practice.[90] ITN leader Slavi Trifonov endorsed Radev's calls and additionally called for the resignation of the Caretaker Government due to their mishandling of the elections.[91] The BSP similarly called on the Prosecutors Office to respond to the allegations of mass vote buying and irregularities.[92] PP–DB said they wanted a comprehensive check of the results, pointing to irregularities like high turnout, high numbers of invalid ballots and discrepancies.[93] Revival have also called for a general recount of the results of the elections.[94]
On 7 November, Vice-President Iliana Iotova called the new parliament illegitimate.[95] This was criticised by Boyko Borisov, who called on Iotova to apologise or otherwise withdraw the convocation of the parliament if she believed it to be illegitimate.[71] Iotova refused to apologise and reiterated claims serious irregularities in the conduct of the elections.[96]
The following parties have called for a full or partial annulment of the election: the BSP,[97] DPS–Dogan,[73] GERB,[98] ITN,[99] MECh,[100] and Velichie.[85] Multiple parties also announced they would collect signatures to send a partial annullment case to the Constitutional Court, which requires the support of 48 MPs.[99][97] ITN's case was sent with the signatures of 67 deputies of the last parliament, coming from their party, PP–DB, DPS–Dogan, BSP and Velichie.[101]
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