Talk:October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Opinion polls

I just edited the opinion polls section to document the split in DPS for future polls. However, I’m facing technical issues with party colors on the board being out of order, so I would be grateful if somebody could figure it out and fix the issue. 85.118.80.93 (talk) 14:21, 15 September 2024 (UTC)

Electorate

Can someone explain to me how the electorate can be over 6.8 million, when the Central Electoral Commission states that the overall electorate is 6.6 million people? I just want to make sure you are not counting the same people twice, as the figure of 6.6 million people already includes Bulgarians who voted abroad and are added to the list on election day. 84.54.152.113 (talk) 14:58, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

It does include the people who are added to the voters list on election day, but I don't believe these are overseas voters. The additional people added to the list on election day are described in the following sources:

• Article 27(3) of the electoral code, which states The names of any citizens, who have the right to vote in the relevant polling station but have been omitted and those, for whom the ground, on which it was removed has become irrelevant, shall be added to the electoral lists.
• Footnote 19 on page 7 of this OSCE report: Voters not found on the voter list for their registered address may be added on election day if they present residency documentation issued by the respective municipality.)
• Paragraphs 25 and 35 of this Venice Commission report: Bulgarian nationals who have not been disfranchised and who go to the polling station on the Election Day without prior notification shall be added to the roll for voting and thereafter admitted to vote upon the production of an identity document and a declaration to the effect that they will not vote elsewhere and The name of a voter who is omitted shall be additionally entered into the roll for voting on the Election Day providing his or her identity document makes it obvious they qualify as voters.

Number 57 22:33, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for the information and the sources! However, Section Seven, Article 40 of the electoral code deals specifically with deleted persons on Election Day and states that such citizens must show a certificate to be included in the electoral list. I can assure you that those 200.000 we are talking about do not show up with certificates showing how they have been wrongfully deleted from the electoral lists. Article 27(3) of the electoral code is part of Section Four, Chapter 1, which refers only to the electoral lists compiled by the municipal administrations. Article 23(2) states clearly that Each voter shall be entered on a single electoral list.

In this regard, Article 27(3) clearly means citizens who are omitted from an electoral list in their relevant polling station, which however does not exclude them being included in any other electoral list and thus in the electorate altogether. As such, those citizens are added to the electoral list at their polling station on Election day as documentation that they have voted at this respective polling station and not in any other polling station. Footnote 19 clarifies this by saying that citizens can vote at a polling station even when they are not found on the electoral list. Those are citizens with voting rights, included in the electorate, but not on the electorate list at their respective polling station. They are added to the lists on Election day to make sure they do not vote twice.

The Venice Commission report refers only to Bulgarians voting abroad. Those citizens must sign a declaration stating that they are voting only at the polling station abroad. This is necessary because voting twice would be entirely possible, as they are included in the electorate list at their permanent address in Bulgaria and could theoretically travel to their polling station in Bulgaria and vote again. The declaration is regarded as proof that these citizens have voted already. Likewise, they are added to the electoral list on Election day to make sure that it is documented that they have voted once already. In doing so, they appear twice in the electorate - once as citizens with a permanent address in Bulgaria and once through the declaration stating that they have voted abroad.

To conclude, the people added to the lists on Election day are already part of the electorate, just not in the polling stations where they want to vote. Most of them are voting through their present address instead of their permanent one, which makes it necessary to add them to the lists on Election day to make sure they do not vote twice. 84.54.152.113 (talk) 11:02, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

I forgot to include the link to the OSCE report, which does not appear to be referring to overseas voters. This OSCE report also confirms The law is overly inclusive, allowing certain categories of voters both in-country and abroad to be added to the voter list on election day without sufficient safeguards against multiple voting Number 57 15:26, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks again for the source. The report again does specifically mention Bulgarians voting abroad. Moreover, the report also confirms exactly what I was saying earlier: "Citizens with a permanent address in Bulgaria are automatically added to a voter list." As well as: "The law allows voters who are not found on the voter list of their permanent address and certain categories of voters to be added to the voter list on election day".

What this means is that we are talking about citizens who are not voting at their permanent address, but who are otherwise still included in the electorate as they have a permanent address in Bulgaria. I absolutely agree with the conclusion of the report that the law is overly inclusive, which is why I wanted to caution to not count the same voters twice on this page. Like I said before, those citizens are added to the voting list just to make sure they do not vote twice. They are, however, part of the electorate of 6.6 million. The figure of 6.8 million is therefore not right, as it includes those people twice. 84.54.152.113 (talk) 21:59, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

I have looked into this too, and I have to agree with your conclusions. While I must first preface by saying that I am not an expert in Bulgarian electoral law, I do know that all Bulgarians (including those abroad) are supposed to have a permanent registration in Bulgaria, and hence are automatically added into the voter rolls. Additionally, from my cursory research of Bulgarian news sources, it seems the consensus is that the elligible voter figure stands at 6.6 million (including most importantly the CEC), therefore I think that using the 6.6 million figure is the most accurate. Finally, the turnout for the elections is calculated from the 6.6 million figure, which imo why its important to use it so that we don't end up doing original research and presenting our own turnout figures, that might be a bit flimsy. Bulpoliticsedit (talk) 10:22, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks both. And sorry, another query about this: In the 2009 results the CIK appear to group both the main and supplementary lists together in a single number of registered voters (7129965). They do the same for the 2021 elections. Why do they do this if doing so is double counting?

Another odd one is the 2013 election, for which the CIK references 19,227 voters who were added to the lists on election day (by a CIK decision) in addition to people entered under the line. Should these 19,227 be added to the electorate? Number 57 00:41, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

I do not know what the CIK is counting really when they group together those voters 'under the line' on Election day, but what I do know is that in 2021 Bulgaria had three parliamentary elections. While at the election in April they grouped those voters together, they didn't group them together at the July 2021 election. There we can see that the electorate was 6.66 million people, while the added voters on Election day were around 200.000. If we assume that those people must be added to the electorate, this would make a total electorate of 6.86 million people.

Now, just a few months earlier, in April, they grouped those people together and said that the total electorate was 6.78 million. Comparing these electorates it would seem that the country had more eligible voters in July than in April. Now, not only is Bulgaria in a demographic crisis, but the country also had to fight the Covid pandemic during these months in 2021. There is absolutely no way that Bulgaria had more eligible voters in July than in April. It is far more logical that the electorate decreased from 6.78 to 6.66 million during these months. I cannot say why the CIK grouped all voters together in April 2021, but it would seem they did not add additional voters to the electorate.

The 2013 election maybe gives us an insight at how the CIK actually counts all those votes, as they seemingly add the voters abroad to the voters under the line in Bulgaria. At least that's what I can see from the CIK decision, where they state that they have counted the votes wrong. When you add the 115,000 voters abroad to the 19,000 voters under the line in Bulgaria you get 134,000. This is still not the 129,000 which the CIK references, but it's nearly there. And as for your question: I still think that those 19,000 people are Bulgarians who voted at a polling station not at their permanent address, but who still had a permanent address and were eligible to vote. So imo they should not be added to the electorate and the electorate should instead remain the same as CIK states (without the added voters on Election day). 84.54.152.113 (talk) 10:35, 19 November 2024 (UTC)