Jump to content

2020 United States presidential election predictions

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

  • Tossup: No advantage
  • Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • Lean: Slight advantage
  • Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
  • Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
State or district EV PVI[1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020[2] 		Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020[3] 		Sabato
Nov 2, 2020[4] 		Politico
Nov 2, 2020[5] 		Real
Clear
Politics
Oct 29, 2020[6] 		Niskanen Center
Sep 15, 2020[7] 		CNN
Nov 2, 2020[8] 		The Economist
Nov 3, 2020[9] 		CBS News
Nov 1, 2020[10] 		270
to
Win
Nov 3, 2020[11] 		ABC News
Nov 2, 2020[12] 		NPR
Oct 30, 2020[13] 		NBC News
Oct 27, 2020[14] 		DDHQ
Nov 3, 2020[15] 		Five
Thirty
Eight[a]
Nov 2, 2020[16]
 
Alabama 9 R+14 +27.73% R +25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3 R+9 +14.73% R +10.06% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+5 +3.50% R +0.31% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6 R+15 +26.92% R +27.62% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
California 55 D+12 +30.11% D +29.16% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9 D+1 +4.91% D +13.50% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Connecticut 7 D+6 +13.64% D +20.07% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Delaware 3 D+6 +11.37% D +18.97% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
District of Columbia 3 D+41 +86.78% D +86.75% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29 R+2 +1.20% R
(flip) 		+3.36% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16 R+5 +5.13% R +0.24% D
(flip) 		Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4 D+18 +32.18% D +29.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4 R+19 +31.77% R +30.77% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20 D+7 +17.06% D +16.99% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Indiana 11 R+9 +19.17% R +16.06% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+3 +9.41% R
(flip) 		+8.20% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 +20.60% R +14.65% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Kentucky 8 R+15 +29.84% R +25.94% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8 R+11 +19.64% R +18.61% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Maine 2 D+3 +2.96% D +9.07% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
ME-1 1 D+8 +14.81% D +23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D — Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
ME-2 1 R+2 +10.29% R
(flip) 		+7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup — Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10 D+12 +26.42% D +33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 +27.20% D +33.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16 D+1 +0.23% R
(flip) 		+2.78% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10 D+1 +1.52% D +7.11% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Mississippi 6 R+9 +17.83% R +16.55% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10 R+9 +18.64% R +15.39% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3 R+11 +20.42% R +16.37% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+14 +25.05% R +19.06% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-1 1 R+11 +20.72% R +14.92% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-2 1 R+4 +2.24% R +6.50% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) — Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
NE-3 1 R+27 +54.19% R +53.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6 D+1 +2.42% D +2.39% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 +0.37% D +7.35% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 14 D+7 +14.10% D +15.94% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New Mexico 5 D+3 +8.21% D +10.79% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New York 29 D+11 +22.49% D +23.11% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15 R+3 +3.66% R +1.35% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3 R+16 +35.73% R +33.34% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18 R+3 +8.13% R
(flip) 		+8.03% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7 R+20 +36.39% R +33.09% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7 D+5 +10.98% D +16.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN +0.72% R
(flip) 		+1.16% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4 D+10 +15.51% D +20.77% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
South Carolina 9 R+8 +14.27% R +11.68% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3 R+14 +29.79% R +26.16% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11 R+14 +26.01% R +23.21% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38 R+8 +8.99% R +5.58% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 +18.08% R +20.48% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Vermont 3 D+15 +26.41% D +35.41% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13 D+1 +5.32% D +10.11% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Washington 12 D+7 +15.71% D +19.20% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5 R+19 +42.07% R +38.93% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN +0.77% R
(flip) 		+0.63% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3 R+25 +46.29% R +43.38% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Overall 538 EVEN D: 232
R: 306
 D: 306
R: 232
 D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123 		D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63 		D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197 		D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 308
R: 163
Tossup: 67 		D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Projected chances of winning indicated by Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017). "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". Decision Desk HQ. Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  2. ^ "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  3. ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. April 3, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  4. ^ "2020 President". Sabato's Crystal Ball. July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 14, 2020.
  5. ^ Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019). "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  6. ^ "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  7. ^ Niskanen Center Electoral Map, 270toWin, September 15, 2020.
  8. ^ "CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end". CNN. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  9. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  13. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020). "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  14. ^ Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020). "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Model". Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_predictions&oldid=1253909966"