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2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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For related races, see 2020 United States presidential election.
2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout72.3% Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,630,866 1,610,184
Percentage 49.45% 48.82%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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Mayoral elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was scheduled to be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, but it was moved to the nearby Wisconsin Center due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[3][4]

Polls of Wisconsin in the lead-up to election day showed a clear Biden lead, averaging in the high single digits. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered that the state was leaning towards Biden. Wisconsin was ultimately won by Biden by a narrow 0.63% margin over Trump, a far closer margin than expected and the closest margin since 2004. Trump had won the state in 2016 by 0.77% against Hillary Clinton; however, Biden carried the state with a slightly larger margin than Al Gore or John Kerry did in either 2000 or 2004, respectively. Once again, Trump massively outperformed his polling average, which had Biden up 8.4 points in the state, but not enough to win the state. Trump held his own in counties in northern Wisconsin and in the WOW counties.[5]

Biden won the highest vote share for a Democrat in Waukesha County, at 38.8%, since Jimmy Carter in 1976.[6] Trump carried Brown County, which is Republican-leaning but competitive, though Biden won the city of Green Bay and improved on Clinton's margin in the county at large by about 3.7 points.[7] Biden won back Sauk County, a county in the driftless region of southwestern Wisconsin; Biden also flipped Door County, which has voted for the winning candidate in each election since 1980, save for 1992.

On November 18, Trump announced that he would request a recount in Milwaukee County and Dane County.[8][9] On November 29, both counties re-affirmed Biden's victory, giving him a net gain of 87 votes over Trump.[10]

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Wisconsin voted 3.8% more Republican than the nation in general. This is the first time since 2004 that Wisconsin did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Iowa.

Primary elections

[edit]

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

[edit]
This section is transcluded from 2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)
See also: Political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic § Wisconsin, and COVID-19 pandemic in Wisconsin

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several states had delayed their scheduled primaries and extended the vote-by-mail period. Concerns were raised by health officials, poll workers, and voters that in-person voting at the height of the pandemic would be unsafe for vulnerable individuals.[11] Democratic Governor Tony Evers initially signed an executive order for all-mail-in election, but the order was rejected by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature.[12]

On April 2, although U.S. District Judge William M. Conley refused to postpone the election, he extended the deadline for absentee voting to April 13 (ordering clerks not to release any election data before that date).[13][14] However, on April 6, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Conley's decision, meaning that all absentee ballots still had to be postmarked by "election day, Tuesday, April 7" even though it was still acceptable for the ballots to be received by the clerks as late as April 13.[15][16] The Supreme Court of the United States "did not alter the provision in Conley's amended order which prohibits the reporting of results until April 13".[17]

Governor Evers then called a special session of the legislature to postpone in-person voting, but the session ended within minutes without action, forcing the primary to go on as planned.[18] Despite having previously expressed the view that he would violate the law by doing so,[19] on April 6, Evers issued an executive order which, if enforced, would have postponed the April 7 elections until the tentative date of June 9.[20][21] Republican leaders immediately announced that they would challenge the order in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.[20] The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the elections, thus meaning that Evers' executive order was nullified, and that the elections would be held as scheduled on April 7.[22] This was appealed to a federal court who sided with the governor, and that was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which on a 5–4 vote, upheld the state court's ruling.[23]

Voting was somewhat chaotic, with people waiting in the rain for hours in some cases in masks and social distancing.[24] However, by the time the election concluded, Milwaukee Election Commissioner Neil Albrecht stated that despite some of the problems, the in-person voting ran smoothly.[25]

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is transcluded from 2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary. (edit | history)
2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary[26]
Candidate Votes[27] % Delegates[28]
Joe Biden 581,463 62.86 56
Bernie Sanders 293,441 31.72 28
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,060 1.52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 8,846 0.96
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 6,079 0.66
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 5,565 0.60
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 4,946 0.53
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 3,349 0.36
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 836 0.09
John Delaney (withdrawn) 529 0.06
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 475 0.05
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 311 0.03
Write-in votes 1,575 0.17
Uninstructed Delegate 3,590 0.39
Total 925,065 100% 84

Republican primary

[edit]

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Wisconsin's 52 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[29]

2020 Wisconsin Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 616,780 97.87% 52
Adam Nicholas Paul (write-in) 246 0.04%
Uninstructed 11,246 1.78%
Scattering 1,924 0.31%
Total 630,196 100% 52

General election

[edit]
Absentee ballot drop box in Madison, Wisconsin

Final predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[30] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[31] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Lean D (flip)
Politico[33] Lean D (flip)
RCP[34] Tossup
Niskanen[35] Likely D (flip)
CNN[36] Lean D (flip)
The Economist[37] Likely D (flip)
CBS News[38] Lean D (flip)
270towin[39] Lean D (flip)
ABC News[40] Lean D (flip)
NPR[41] Lean D (flip)
NBC News[42] Lean D (flip)
538[43] Likely D (flip)

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[44] November 1–2, 2020 November 3, 2020 42.8% 52.0% 5.2% Biden +9.2
Real Clear Politics[45] October 21 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 44.3% 51.0% 4.7% Biden +6.7
FiveThirtyEight[46] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.7% 52.1% 4.2% Biden +8.4
Average 43.6% 51.7% 4.7% Biden +8.1

2020 polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Oct 20 – Nov 2 2,814 (LV) ± 2.5% 44%[c] 54% - - – –
Research Co.[48] Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 54% - - 1%[d] 7%
Change Research/CNBC[49] Oct 29 – Nov 1 553 (LV) ± 4.17% 45% 53% 2% - – 0%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[50] Oct 29 – Nov 1 789 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 51% - - 1%[d] 0%
Swayable[51] Oct 27 – Nov 1 253 (LV) ± 8.2% 45% 55% 1% - – –
Ipsos/Reuters[52] Oct 27 – Nov 1 696 (LV) ± 4.2% 43%[e] 53% 2% 0% 2%[f] –
43%[g] 53% - - 2%[h] 2%
45%[i] 53% - - 2%[j] –
AtlasIntel[53] Oct 30–31 781 (LV) ± 3% 49% 51% - - – 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[54][A] Oct 29–31 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% - - 2%[k] 1%
Morning Consult[55] Oct 22–31 1,002 (LV) ± 3% 41% 54% - - – –
Emerson College[56] Oct 29–30 751 (LV) ± 3.1% 45%[l] 52% - - 2%[m] –
AtlasIntel[57] Oct 29–30 672 (LV) ± 4% 50% 49% - - 2% –
CNN/SSRS[58] Oct 29–30 873 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 52% 3% - 0%[n] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[59] Oct 26–30 1,253 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 52% 2% - 1%[o] 4%[p]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[60] Oct 26–29 800 (LV) – 41% 53% 2% - 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Oct 1–28 4,569 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 55% - - – –
Swayable[61] Oct 23–26 313 (LV) ± 7.2% 45% 54% 1% - – –
Ipsos/Reuters[62] Oct 20–26 664 (LV) ± 4.3% 44%[e] 53% 2% 1% 3%[q] –
44%[g] 53% - - 2%[h] 2%
Trafalgar Group[63] Oct 24–25 1,082 (LV) ± 2.89% 47% 47% 3% - 1%[d] 1%
Marquette Law School[64] Oct 21–25 749 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 2% - 7%[r] 0%
ABC/Washington Post[65] Oct 20–25 809 (LV) ± 4% 40% 57% 2% - 1%[s] 1%
Gravis Marketing[66] Oct 23 677 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 54% - - – 3%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[67] Oct 13–21 647 (LV) ± 4.07% 44% 53% - - 3%[t] –
Fox News[68] Oct 17–20 1,037 (LV) ± 3% 44% 49% 2% - 1%[u] 4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[69] Oct 14–20 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44%[e] 50% - - 3%[v] 4%
42%[w] 52% - - 3%[v] 4%
45%[x] 48% - - 3%[v] 4%
Morning Consult[55] Oct 11–20 1,038 (LV) ± 3% 42% 54% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[70][A] Oct 16–19 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 45% 5% - 3%[y] 3%
Change Research/CNBC[71] Oct 16–19 447 (LV)[z] – 44% 52% - - – –
Latino Decisions/DFER[72][B] Oct 14–19 400 (LV) ± 5% 45% 50% - - – 4%
Ipsos/Reuters[73] Oct 13–19 663 (LV) ± 4.3% 45%[e] 51% 2% 0% 3%[aa] –
43%[g] 51% - - 3%[ab] 3%
Trafalgar Group[74] Oct 14–16 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94% 46% 48% 2% - 1% 3%
YouGov/CBS[75] Oct 13–16 1,112 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 50% - - 3%[ac] 2%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[76][C] Oct 11–13 1,043 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 47% 3% – 2%[m] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[77] Oct 10–13 691 (LV) – 40%[z] 53% 2% 0% – –
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[78] Oct 10–13 200 (LV) – 43% 53% - - – –
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[79][D] Oct 8–11 560 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 53% - - 2%[m] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[80] Oct 8–11 789 (LV) ± 4% 41% 51% 3% - 0%[ad] 5%[p]
Ipsos/Reuters[81] Oct 6–11 577 (LV) ± 4.7% 45%[e] 51% 2% 0% 1%[q] –
44%[g] 51% - - 3%[ab] 2%
Morning Consult[82] Oct 2–11 1,067 (LV) ± 3% 44% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[77] Oct 9–10 613 (LV) – 45%[z] 49% 2% - – –
Baldwin Wallace University[83] Sep 30 – Oct 8 883 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 49% 2% 0% 1%[ae] 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] Oct 4–7 688 (LV) ± 3.74% 41% 51% 1% - 1%[af] 6%
Ipsos/Reuters[85] Sep 29 – Oct 5 601 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 50% - - 2%[h] 4%
Change Research/CNBC[86] Oct 2–4 442 (LV) – 44% 51% - - – –
Marquette Law School[87][88] Sep 30 – Oct 4 805 (RV) – 41% 46% 5% - 7%[ag] 2%
700 (LV) 42% 47% 4% - 2%[ah] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Sep 1–30 3,806 (LV) – 44% 53% - - – 2%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[89][C] Sep 25–28 1,084 (LV) ± 2.89% 44% 47% 3% - 2%[ai] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[90] Sep 23–27 663 (LV) ± 3.81% 43% 48% 2% - 0%[aj] 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[91][A] Sep 23–26 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 48% - - – –
Trafalgar Group (R)[92] Sep 22–24 1,189 (LV) ± 2.76% 45% 48% 3% - 2%[ai] 3%
Marist College/NBC[93] Sep 20–24 727 (LV) ± 4.6% 44% 54% - - 1% 1%
Baldwin Wallace University[94] Sep 9–22 863 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 50% 2% 0% 1%[ae] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal[95] 		Sep 10–21 664 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[96] Sep 18–20 571 (LV) – 42% 51% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[97][E] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98] Sep 12–16 636 (LV) ± 3.89% 41% 47% 1% 1% 1%[af] 10%
Ipsos/Reuters[99] Sep 11–16 609 (LV) – 43% 48% - - 2%[h] 6%
Morning Consult[100] Sep 7–16 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[ak] 51% - - – –
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[101][D] Sep 11–15 549 (RV) ± 3.9% 44%[z] 51% - - 2%[m] 2%
Morning Consult[100] Sep 6–15 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% - - – –
CNN/SSRS[102] Sep 9–13 816 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 52% 3% - 1%[al] 1%
ABC/Washington Post[103] Sep 8–13 605 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% - - 1%[am] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[104] Sep 8–10 760 (LV) ± 4.7% 43% 48% 2% 0% 2%[an] 6%[p]
Emerson College[105] Sep 6–8 823 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[l] 52% - - 4%[ao] –
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP[106] Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% - - 1%[ap] 4%
Change Research/CNBC[107] Sep 4–6 501 (LV) – 44% 50% - - 6%[aq] –
Morning Consult[100] Aug 27 – Sep 5 763 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - - – –
YouGov/CBS[108] Sep 2–4 978 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 50% - - 2%[ar] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[109] Aug 30 – Sep 4 670 (LV) ± 3.78% 41% 50% 2% 0% 0%[aj] 6%
Marquette Law School[110] Aug 30 – Sep 3 688 (LV) – 44% 48% 4% - 2%[as] 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[111] Sep 1–2 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 43% 51% - - 3%[at] 2%
Fox News[112] Aug 29 – Sep 1 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% 2% – 1%[au] 5%
853 (RV) ± 3% 41% 49% 2% – 2%[av] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Aug 1–31 1,913 (LV) – 49% 48% - - – 2%
Opinium/The Guardian[113][114] Aug 21–28 700 (LV) – 40% 53% - - 1% 5%
Morning Consult[100] Aug 17–26 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[115] Aug 21–23 925 (LV) – 44% 49% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[116] Aug 14–23 1,011 (LV) ± 2.99% 46% 45% 4% - 2%[aw] 3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[117][C] Aug 17–20 600 (LV) – 44% 52% - - – 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[118] Aug 13–17 672 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 49% 1% 1% 2%[ax] 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[119][D] Aug 13–17 753 (RV) – 45% 51% - - 2%[m] 2%
Morning Consult[120] Aug 7–16 788 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[ay] 49% - - 2%[m] 5%
Morning Consult[100] Aug 4–13 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[121] Aug 6–9 384 (LV) – 43% 47% - - – –
Marquette Law School[122] Aug 4–9 694 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% - - 3%[az] 1%
YouGov/CBS[123] Aug 4–7 994 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 48% - - 3%[ac] 7%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[124][A] Aug 5–6 750 (LV) – 43% 55% - - 1% 1%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[125] Jul 27 – Aug 6 734 (RV) ± 4.9% 43% 49% - - 4%[ba] 4%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[126][F] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.7% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Morning Consult[100] Jul 25 – Aug 3 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 51% - - – –
David Binder Research[127] Jul 30–31 200 (LV) – 42% 53% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Jul 1–31 2,173 (LV) – 48% 50% - - – 2%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[128][C] Jul 22–27 600 (LV) – 38% 52% - - – 10%
Change Research/CNBC[129][130] Jul 24–26 392 (LV) – 43% 48% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[131] Jul 19–24 742 (LV) – 35% 45% 2% 0% 3%[bb] 15%
Morning Consult[100] Jul 15–24 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% - - – –
Gravis Marketing[132] Jul 22 796 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 50% - - – 7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[133] Jul 11–17 600 (V) ± 4.0% 42% 51% - - 2%[bc] 4%[p]
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[134][G] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% - - – 8%
Morning Consult[100] Jul 5–14 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[135] Jul 10–12 601 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult[100] Jun 25 – Jul 4 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[47] Jun 8–30 813 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[136] Jun 26–28 502 (LV)[z] – 43% 51% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[137] Jun 25–26 1,021 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% - - 8%[bd] 2%
Ogden & Fry[138] Jun 20–24 825 (LV) ± 3.48% 44% 45% - - – 10%
Morning Consult[100] Jun 15–24 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 50% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] Jun 14–19 846 (LV) ± 3.37% 36% 45% 1% 1% 2%[be] 15%
Marquette Law School[140] Jun 14–18 686 (LV) – 44% 52% - - 3%[az] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[141] Jun 12–16 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 55% - - – 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[142] Jun 8–15 655 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 49% - - 5%[bf] 8%
Morning Consult[100] Jun 5–14 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC[143] Jun 12–14 231 (LV)[z] – 44% 48% - - 5%[bg] –
Morning Consult[100] May 26 – Jun 4 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% - - – –
Fox News[144] May 30 – Jun 2 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% - - 6%[bh] 5%
Change Research/CNBC[145] May 29–31 382 (LV)[z] – 45% 45% - - 5% 6%
Morning Consult[100] May 16–25 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult[100] May 6–15 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[146] May 10–14 875 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 48% - - 3%[bi] 10%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[147] May 6–8 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 51% - - – 8%
Marquette Law School[140] May 3–7 650 (LV) – 45% 49% - - 4%[bj] 2%
Morning Consult[100] Apr 26 – May 5 797 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 49% - - – –
Public Policy Polling[148][H] Apr 20–21 1,415 (RV) – 45% 50% - - – 4%
Ipsos[149] Apr 15–20 645 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 43% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[150] Apr 13–15 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 50% - - – 4%
Hart Research/CAP Action[151][I] Apr 6–8 303 (RV) – 47% 48% - - 2% 3%
Marquette Law School[152] Mar 24–29 813 (RV) – 45% 48% - - 4%[bj] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[153] Mar 17–25 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 45% - - – 10%
Change Research[154] Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 49% 45% - – 6%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[155] Mar 17–19 600 (RV) – 49% 45% - - – –
Public Policy Polling[156] Mar 10–11 1,727 (RV) – 45% 48% - - – 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News[157] Mar 6–8 459 (RV) – 42% 44% - - 6%[bk] 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[158] Mar 5–7 502 (LV) ± 4.7% 45% 43% - - – –
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23 1,000 (RV) – 46% 46% - - 5%[bl] 3%
YouGov[160] Feb 11–20 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% - - – –
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% - - 4%[bm] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[162] Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 44% 42% - - – 13%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce[163] Jan 14–16 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 47% - - – 6%
Marquette Law School[164][165][166] Jan 8–12 701 (LV) – 47% 48% - - 4%[bj] 2%
Fox News[167] Jan 5–8 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 46% - - 8%[bn] 4%


2019 polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[168][166] Dec 3–8 652 (LV) – 47% 49% 2%[bo] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[169] Dec 3–5 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% 8%[bp] 5%[p]
Marquette Law School[170][171][140] Nov 13–17 685 (LV) – 48% 45% 5%[bq] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[172] Oct 13–26 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% – –
Marquette Law School[173][174][140] Oct 13–17 657 (LV) – 44% 51% 3%[br] 1%
Fox News[175] Sep 29 – Oct 2 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 48% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[176] Sep 7–9 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14% –
Marquette Law School[177][140] Aug 25–29 672 (LV) – 44% 51% 3%[az] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Jun 11–13 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% 14% –
WPA Intelligence[179] Apr 27–30 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 46% 42% – 9%
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 50% – 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Mar 19–21 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 53% 5% –
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –

Former candidates and hypothetical polling

[edit]
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) – 45% 44% 5%[bs] 5%
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 41% 5%[bt] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[162] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 44% 43% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[169] Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 37% 10%[bu] 4%[p]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[168][140] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 47% 45% 4%[bj] 4%
Marquette Law School[170][171]>[140] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 45% 45% 5%[bv] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) – 45% 45% 5%[bs] 5%
YouGov[160] Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% – –
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 41% 5%[bw] 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[162] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 43% 44% – 13%
Marquette Law School[164][183][140] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 47% 45% 5%[bq] 4%
Fox News[167] Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 42% 10[bx] 7%
Marquette Law School[168][140] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 47% 44% 4%[by] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[169] Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 38% 8%[bp] 5%[p]
Marquette Law School[170][171][140] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 48% 40% 7%[bz] 6%
Marquette Law School[173][174][140] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 44% 46% 5%[ca] 4%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 39% 20% –
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[177][140] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 46% 5%[bq] 4%
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 43% – 14%
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) – 46% 46% 4%[bl] 4%
YouGov[160] Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 39% 5%[bw] 6%
Marquette Law School[170][171][140] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 53% 36% 6%[bs] 4%
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% – 15%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Mar 19–21, 2019 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 45% 9% –
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[152] Mar 24–29, 2020 813 (RV) – 47% 45% 6%[bs] 2%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes[153] Mar 17–25, 2020 822 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 42% – 12%
Hodas & Associates/Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R)[155] Mar 17–19, 2020 600 (RV) – 50% 43% – –
Public Policy Polling[156] Mar 10–11, 2020 1,727 (V) – 46% 48% – 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News[157] Mar 6–8, 2020 459 (RV) – 40% 46% 9%[cb] 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[158] Mar 5–7, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 42% – –
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) – 46% 48% 3%[bj] 3%
YouGov[160] Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 43% 4%[bm] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[162] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 46% 45% – 9%
Tarrance Group/Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce[163] Jan 14–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 47% – 7%
Marquette Law School[164][183][140] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 47% 47% 3%[br] 1%
Fox News[167] Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 42% 46% 8%[bn] 4%
Marquette Law School[168][140] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 48% 46% 4%[bj] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[169] Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 51% 38% 7%[bp] 4%[p]
Marquette Law School[170][171][140] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 49% 45% 5%[bq] 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[172] Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Marquette Law School[173][174][140] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 45% 48% 4%[bl] 2%
Fox News[175] Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 45% 5% 6%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[176] Sep 7–9, 2019 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8% –
Marquette Law School[177][140] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 48% 4%[bj] 1%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 47% 13% –
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% – 9%
Tulchin Research (D)[184][J] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 52% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[181] Mar 19–21, 2019 616 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 48% 7% –
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Marquette Law School[159] Feb 19–23, 2020 1,000 (RV) – 47% 44% 4%[bq] 4%
YouGov[160] Feb 11–20, 2020 936 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University[161] Feb 12–18, 2020 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 41% 4%[bm] 4%
Marquette Law School[164][183]>[140] Jan 8–12, 2020 701 (LV) – 49% 45% 5%[bq] 2%
Fox News[167] Jan 5–8, 2020 1,504 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 44% 9%[cc] 5%
Marquette Law School[168][140] Dec 3–8, 2019 652 (LV) – 48% 46% 5%[bv] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[169] Dec 3–5, 2019 610 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 37% 8%[bp] 5%[p]
Marquette Law School[170][171][140] Nov 13–17, 2019 685 (LV) – 50% 43% 4%[bj] 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[172] Oct 13–26, 2019 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% – –
Marquette Law School[173][174][140] Oct 13–17, 2019 657 (LV) – 45% 50% 3%[br] 1%
Fox News[175] Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 1,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 45% 5% 7%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[176] Sep 7–9, 2019 534 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15% –
Marquette Law School[177][140] Aug 25–29, 2019 672 (LV) – 46% 48% 4%[bj] 3%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus[178] Jun 11–13, 2019 535 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 41% 18% –
Zogby Analytics[180] Apr 15–18, 2019 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 47% – 12%
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – –
Zogby Analytics[185] Aug 17–23, 2017 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 48% – 15%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 51% 4% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College[182] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 5% –

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[186] Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 46.8%[cd] 50.4% – 2.8%[ce]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute[162] Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 49% – 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[187] Jan 8–20, 2020 1,038 (RV) ± 3.3% 36.7%[cd] 51.2% – 12%
KFF/Cook Political Report[188] Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 745 (RV) ± 4% 28% 41% – 21%
Change Research/Crooked Media[189] Aug 9–11, 2019 1,966 (V) ± 2.2% 45% 46% 3%[cf] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[190][K] Apr 23–24, 2019 762 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 53% – 4%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
Marquette University[191] Released Apr 7, 2019 800 (RV) – 42% 57%[cg] 0%[ch] 4%
Emerson College[192] Mar 15–17, 2019 775 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 55%[ci] – –
Marquette University[193] Jan 16–20, 2019 800 (RV) – 39% 57%[cg] 0%[ch] 4%

Green Party and Kanye West ballot access lawsuits

[edit]

In August 2020, the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission voted to keep rapper Kanye West, an independent presidential candidate, off of the 2020 general election ballot in a 5–1 decision on the basis that West's application arrived too late—arriving in person seconds after the deadline.[194]

The commission was split along party lines in a 3–3 decision to keep Howie Hawkins, the Green Party presidential candidate off of the 2020 general election ballot.[195] Hawkins gathered 3,623 valid signatures; however, forms with 1,834 signatures had a different address for Hawkins' running mate Angela Walker. The partisan board voted only to certify the 1,789, placing Hawkins/Walker below the 2,000 signatures required to be on the ballot.[196]

Walker subsequently filed a legal petition to be included on the ballot. On September 10, 2020, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that the election officials had to wait to mail absentee ballots until the court decided whether or not to include the Green Party on the ballot. Some municipal election commissions had already mailed out absentee ballots while others were concerned that they would miss the September 17 deadline by which Wisconsin state law required absentee ballots to mailed out to those who requested them.[197] On September 14, 2020, the court ruled that the ballots would remain as-is without Hawkins or West on the ballot stating, "given their delay in asserting their rights, we would be unable to provide meaningful relief without completely upsetting the election."[198]

Electoral slates

[edit]

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College if their candidates win the state:[199]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party 		Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party 		Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party 		Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Constitution Party 		Brian T. Carroll and Amar Patel
American Solidarity Party
  • Carol Brunner
  • Edward Grabins
  • Bill Feehan
  • Robert Spindell
  • Tom Schriebel
  • Darryl Carlson
  • Pam Travis
  • Kelly Ruh
  • Andrew Hitt
  • Mary Buestrin
  • Darek Raese
  • Patrick Baird
  • Stephen Ecker
  • Kristin Walker
  • Jeff Jortsch
  • Brian Defferding
  • Nathan Gall
  • Mike Hammond
  • Kevin Litten
  • David Grover
  • Nigel Brown
  • Dan Herro
  • Matthew Kloskowski
  • Colin Hudson
  • Thomas Harland
  • Andrew Zuelke
  • Elizabeth Lindee
  • Josh Young
  • Glenn Petroski
  • Lorraine Decker
  • Christopher Hansen
  • Thuy Quyen Tran
  • Steven Carlson
  • Stephen Beall
  • Patrick Malone
  • Charles Adams
  • Fergus McKiernan
  • Riley Drew
  • David Bovee
  • Marianne Bovee

Results

[edit]
Municipal results
Map legend
  •   Biden—40–50%
  •   Biden—50–60%
  •   Biden—60–70%
  •   Biden—70–80%
  •   Biden—80–90%
  •   Biden—90–100%
  •   Trump–40–50%
  •   Trump–50–60%
  •   Trump–60–70%
  •   Trump–70–80%
  •   Trump–80–90%
  •   Trump–90–100%
  •   Tie
  •   No Vote
2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[200]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,630,866 49.45 +3.00
Republican
1,610,184 48.83 +1.60
Independent[cj]
38,491 1.17 −2.41
Independent[ck]
5,259 0.16 N/A
Constitution
5,146 0.16 −0.25
Independent[cl]
1,089 0.03 −1.01
Independent
411 0.01 N/A
Independent[cm]
110 0.00 N/A
Independent
52 0.00 N/A
Independent
36 0.00 N/A
Independent Kasey Wells (write-in) 25 0.00 N/A
Independent President R19 Boddie (write-in) 5 0.00 N/A
Write-in 6,367 0.19 −0.57
Total votes 3,298,041 100%
Democratic gain from Republican

Between 2016 and 2020, the number of voters in Milwaukee suburban counties voting for the Democratic presidential candidate increased.[201]

By county

[edit]
County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald J. Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 4,329 36.63% 7,362 62.29% 127 1.08% −3,033 −25.66% 11,818
Ashland 4,801 54.82% 3,841 43.86% 115 1.32% 960 10.96% 8,757
Barron 9,194 36.27% 15,803 62.35% 349 1.38% −6,609 −26.08% 25,346
Bayfield 6,147 56.50% 4,617 42.44% 116 1.06% 1,530 14.06% 10,880
Brown 65,511 45.49% 75,871 52.68% 2,635 1.83% −10,360 −7.19% 144,017
Buffalo 2,860 36.59% 4,834 61.85% 122 1.56% −1,974 −25.26% 7,816
Burnett 3,569 35.19% 6,462 63.72% 110 1.09% −2,893 −28.53% 10,141
Calumet 12,116 39.37% 18,156 59.00% 502 1.63% −6,040 −19.63% 30,774
Chippewa 13,983 38.91% 21,317 59.32% 638 1.77% −7,334 −20.41% 35,938
Clark 4,524 30.37% 10,002 67.14% 372 2.49% −5,478 −36.77% 14,898
Columbia 16,410 48.45% 16,927 49.98% 532 1.57% −517 −1.53% 33,869
Crawford 3,953 45.46% 4,620 53.13% 122 1.41% −667 −7.67% 8,695
Dane 260,121 75.46% 78,794 22.86% 5,813 1.68% 181,327 52.60% 344,728
Dodge 16,356 33.77% 31,355 64.73% 725 1.50% −14,999 −30.96% 48,436
Door 10,044 49.93% 9,752 48.48% 321 1.59% 292 1.45% 20,117
Douglas 13,218 53.56% 10,923 44.26% 536 2.18% 2,295 9.30% 24,677
Dunn 9,897 42.07% 13,173 56.00% 454 1.93% −3,276 −13.93% 23,524
Eau Claire 31,620 54.26% 25,341 43.49% 1,314 2.25% 6,279 10.77% 58,275
Florence 781 26.56% 2,133 72.55% 26 0.89% −1,352 −45.99% 2,940
Fond du Lac 20,588 35.96% 35,754 62.45% 909 1.59% −15,166 −26.49% 57,251
Forest 1,721 34.06% 3,285 65.01% 47 0.93% −1,564 −30.95% 5,053
Grant 10,998 42.95% 14,142 55.22% 468 1.83% −3,144 −12.27% 25,608
Green 10,851 50.69% 10,169 47.51% 386 1.80% 682 3.18% 21,406
Green Lake 3,344 31.34% 7,168 67.17% 159 1.49% −3,824 −35.83% 10,671
Iowa 7,828 55.95% 5,909 42.23% 255 1.82% 1,919 13.72% 13,992
Iron 1,533 38.23% 2,438 60.80% 39 0.97% −905 −22.57% 4,010
Jackson 4,256 41.79% 5,791 56.86% 137 1.35% −1,535 −15.07% 10,184
Jefferson 19,904 41.48% 27,208 56.71% 867 1.81% −7,304 −15.23% 47,979
Juneau 4,746 34.62% 8,749 63.82% 214 1.56% −4,003 −29.20% 13,709
Kenosha 42,193 47.55% 44,972 50.68% 1,573 1.77% −2,779 −3.13% 88,738
Kewaunee 3,976 32.87% 7,927 65.54% 192 1.59% −3,951 −32.67% 12,095
La Crosse 37,846 55.75% 28,684 42.25% 1,354 2.00% 9,162 13.50% 67,884
Lafayette 3,647 42.63% 4,821 56.35% 87 1.02% −1,174 −13.72% 8,555
Langlade 3,704 33.18% 7,330 65.65% 131 1.17% −3,626 −32.47% 11,165
Lincoln 6,261 37.95% 10,017 60.72% 219 1.33% −3,756 −22.77% 16,497
Manitowoc 16,818 37.52% 27,218 60.72% 793 1.76% −10,400 −23.20% 44,829
Marathon 30,808 40.14% 44,624 58.14% 1,319 1.72% −13,816 −18.00% 76,751
Marinette 7,366 32.06% 15,304 66.60% 309 1.34% −7,938 −34.54% 22,979
Marquette 3,239 35.73% 5,719 63.09% 107 1.18% −2,480 −27.36% 9,065
Menominee 1,303 81.95% 278 17.48% 9 0.57% 1,025 64.47% 1,590
Milwaukee 317,527 69.07% 134,482 29.25% 7,714 1.68% 183,045 39.82% 459,723
Monroe 8,433 37.30% 13,775 60.92% 403 1.78% −5,342 −23.62% 22,611
Oconto 6,715 28.93% 16,226 69.89% 274 1.18% −9,511 −40.96% 23,215
Oneida 10,105 41.83% 13,671 56.59% 383 1.58% −3,566 −14.76% 24,159
Outagamie 47,667 44.13% 58,385 54.05% 1,970 1.82% −10,718 −9.92% 108,022
Ozaukee 26,517 43.13% 33,912 55.15% 1,057 1.72% −7,395 −12.02% 61,486
Pepin 1,489 35.93% 2,584 62.36% 71 1.71% −1,095 −26.43% 4,144
Pierce 9,796 42.01% 12,815 54.96% 706 3.03% −3,019 −12.95% 23,317
Polk 9,370 35.53% 16,611 62.99% 390 1.48% −7,241 −27.46% 26,371
Portage 20,428 50.31% 19,299 47.53% 876 2.16% 1,129 2.78% 40,603
Price 3,032 35.48% 5,394 63.12% 120 1.40% −2,362 −27.64% 8,546
Racine 50,159 47.12% 54,479 51.18% 1,813 1.70% −4,320 −4.06% 106,451
Richland 3,995 44.32% 4,871 54.04% 148 1.64% −876 −9.72% 9,014
Rock 46,658 54.66% 37,138 43.51% 1,564 1.83% 9,520 11.15% 85,360
Rusk 2,517 31.92% 5,257 66.66% 112 1.42% −2,740 −34.74% 7,886
Sauk 18,108 50.02% 17,493 48.32% 602 1.66% 615 1.70% 36,203
Sawyer 4,498 42.80% 5,909 56.22% 103 0.98% −1,411 −13.42% 10,510
Shawano 7,131 31.53% 15,173 67.09% 311 1.38% −8,042 −35.56% 22,615
Sheboygan 27,101 41.06% 37,609 56.97% 1,301 1.97% −10,508 −15.91% 66,011
St. Croix 23,190 40.89% 32,199 56.78% 1,318 2.33% −9,009 −15.89% 56,707
Taylor 2,693 25.20% 7,657 71.65% 336 3.15% −4,964 −46.45% 10,686
Trempealeau 6,285 40.86% 8,833 57.43% 262 1.71% −2,548 −16.57% 15,380
Vernon 7,457 46.83% 8,218 51.61% 248 1.56% −761 −4.78% 15,923
Vilas 5,903 38.41% 9,261 60.26% 205 1.33% −3,358 −21.85% 15,369
Walworth 22,789 39.56% 33,851 58.77% 960 1.67% −11,062 −19.21% 57,600
Washburn 3,867 37.26% 6,334 61.03% 177 1.71% −2,467 −23.77% 10,378
Washington 26,650 30.26% 60,237 68.40% 1,183 1.34% −33,587 −38.14% 88,070
Waukesha 103,906 38.77% 159,649 59.57% 4,441 1.66% −55,743 −20.80% 267,996
Waupaca 9,703 33.31% 18,952 65.06% 475 1.63% −9,249 −31.75% 29,310
Waushara 4,388 32.34% 9,016 66.45% 164 1.21% −4,628 −34.11% 13,568
Winnebago 44,060 46.86% 47,796 50.83% 2,176 2.31% −3,736 −3.97% 94,032
Wood 16,365 39.63% 24,308 58.86% 625 1.51% −7,943 −19.23% 41,298
Totals 1,630,866 49.45% 1,610,184 48.82% 56,991 1.73% 20,682 0.63% 3,298,041
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite narrowly losing, Trump won 6 out of 8 congressional districts in Wisconsin, including one held by a Democrat.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 53.9% 44.7% Bryan Steil
2nd 29.2% 69.4% Mark Pocan
3rd 51.5% 46.8% Ron Kind
4th 22.6% 76.2% Gwen Moore
5th 56.8% 41.7% Jim Sensenbrenner
Scott Fitzgerald
6th 56.8% 41.6% Glenn Grothman
7th 59.2% 39.3% Tom Tiffany
8th 57.2% 41.3% Mike Gallagher

Analysis

[edit]

Prior to the 2016 election, Wisconsin was considered part of the blue wall—the group of states that had voted Democratic in every presidential election from at least 1992 on. Wisconsin itself had voted Democratic in every election from 1988 on, having been one of 10 states that supported Michael Dukakis in 1988. Republicans had scored notable statewide victories over the Obama presidency, with Scott Walker having won election and re-election as Governor and having fought off a recall attempt in 2012, and with Ron Johnson having defeated Russ Feingold in the 2010 Senate election. Nevertheless, Wisconsin was seen as a lean-Democratic state given its presidential voting history. Trump pulled off a surprise win in the state in 2016, in large part due to a collapse in support for Hillary Clinton in the state.[202][203]

In 2020, both Trump and Biden improved their parties' vote shares in Wisconsin. Trump achieved a record for the total number of votes ever received by a Republican presidential nominee in Wisconsin, although he fell short of George W. Bush's 2004 vote share. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's number of votes received, as he did in every state, but fell short of the number of votes won by Barack Obama in 2008.

Joe Biden received strong support in the city of Milwaukee, improving on Clinton's 2016 performance by 3.6 points in its county; Biden received 92% and 60% of the black and Latino vote respectively, with most of that electorate living in Milwaukee County. Both candidates performed well in the state with whites, with Trump carrying whites overall by 6 points, though Biden performed better with college-educated whites. Cementing Biden's victory was his strong performance in Dane County, which he carried by nearly 53 points. Biden would also carry La Crosse County by 13 points, Eau Claire County by 10 points, and flipped Sauk County and the bellwether Door County, while only losing Brown County by seven points, winning the county seat Green Bay. Biden even made in-roads in Waukesha and Washington counties, nearly breaking 40% in the former and breaking 30% in the latter, though Trump still held these counties with large margins.[204]

On the other hand, Trump was able to hold much of the Driftless region in southwestern Wisconsin; many of these counties, such as Vernon, Crawford, and Grant were reliably Democratic during the latter half of the 20th century, but Trump maintained his results from 2016, solidifying a Republican shift in this part of the state. Additionally, Trump performed strongly in the more traditionally conservative northern counties of Wisconsin. Finally, Trump kept Kenosha County in his column, with both candidates improving there; Kenosha County is significant, as it was the site of the Jacob Blake shooting, which triggered nationwide protests.[205]

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without the once-strongly Democratic counties of Kenosha and Forest since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 as well as the first to win without Pepin County since 1944. He was the first Democrat since 1960 to win without Adams, Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Jackson, Juneau, Lincoln, Price, Sawyer, and Trempealeau counties; and the first since 1976 to win without Columbia, Grant, Lafayette, Marquette, Racine, Richland, and Vernon counties. In terms of partisan lean, Biden was able to win 7% of Republicans in the state, which is significant, as they voted in this cycle by about 5 points more than Democrats. More importantly, Biden won independent voters by 12 points; Hillary Clinton lost this bloc to Trump by 10 points in 2016.

Pivot counties

[edit]

Wisconsin is a state with a notable number of pivot counties, meaning counties carried by Obama in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections that then flipped for the Republican candidate, Trump, in 2016.[206] Of Wisconsin's 72 counties, about one-third (N=23, 32%) are considered to be pivot counties, and pivot counties include 17.35 percent of the state population.[207] Lists of Wisconsin pivot counties a) retained by the Republican presidential candidate in 2020 (Trump) and b) boomerang counties "returning" to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2020 (Biden) are below.[208]

Retained pivot counties (remained Republican in 2020)

[edit]

Boomerang pivot counties (returned to Democrat in 2020)

[edit]

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in Wisconsin by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[209]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 49.4 48.8 99
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 25
Moderates 60 38 38
Conservatives 11 88 36
Party
Democrats 96 4 32
Republicans 7 93 37
Independents 54 42 31
Gender
Men 44 54 50
Women 56 43 50
Race/ethnicity
White 46 52 86
Black 92 8 6
Latino 60 37 4
Age
18–24 years old 61 33 8
25–29 years old 56 40 5
30–39 years old 52 46 14
40–49 years old 53 46 14
50–64 years old 46 53 32
65 and older 47 53 26
Sexual orientation
LGBT 80 16 5
Heterosexual 48 51 95
Education
High school or less 44 54 22
Some college education 49 49 27
Associate degree 43 56 16
Bachelor's degree 52 46 23
Postgraduate degree 68 31 11
Income
Under $30,000 65 31 15
$30,000–49,999 55 44 20
$50,000–99,999 47 52 38
$100,000–199,999 43 56 21
Over $200,000 45 55 5
Union households
Yes 59 40 14
No 48 51 86
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 91 6 13
Coronavirus 88 11 19
Economy 13 85 35
Crime and safety 17 82 13
Health care 81 19 8
Region
Milwaukee County 69 29 14
Milwaukee Suburbs 41 58 22
Dane County 76 23 10
Fox River Valley/N. Lakeshore 43 55 17
Southwest 47 52 19
North 39 59 17
Area type
Urban 69 30 30
Suburban 43 55 49
Rural 38 60 22
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 16 83 39
Worse than four years ago 87 12 21
About the same 63 35 40

Aftermath

[edit]
See also: Post-election lawsuits related to the 2020 United States presidential election from Wisconsin and Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election § Wisconsin recount-obstruction
Dane County recount being conducted at Monona Terrace in Madison, Wisconsin

On November 6, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said: "There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results." No evidence of such "irregularities" has been provided by the Trump campaign.[210][211]

On November 18, the Trump campaign wired nearly $3 million to the Wisconsin Election Commission in a petition for a partial recount of the 2020 presidential election results. The recount would take place in Milwaukee and Dane counties. "These two counties were selected because they are the locations of the worst irregularities," the campaign claimed in a release.[212]

Milwaukee certified its recount results on November 27, 2020, and led to Joe Biden gaining a net 132 votes. Dane certified its recount results on November 29, 2020, and led to Donald Trump gaining a net 45 votes. In total, the recount across the two counties led to Joe Biden increasing his lead by an additional 87 votes.[213]

In July 2022, the Wisconsin Supreme Court stated that "ballot drop boxes are illegal under Wisconsin statutes" in the 2022 United States elections.[214] That ruling was overturned by the same court in July 2024 for the 2024 United States elections.[215]

Electors

[edit]

On November 30, Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers certified Wisconsin's electors for Biden.[216] The following electors all cast their vote for Biden:

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ a b c d e Standard VI response
  6. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  7. ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  8. ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  9. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  10. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  11. ^ "Other" and "Refused/would not vote" with 1%
  12. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  13. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
  14. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  16. ^ a b c d e f g h i Includes "Refused"
  17. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  18. ^ "Refused" with 6%; "None/other" with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  19. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  20. ^ Includes Undecided
  21. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  22. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 3%
  23. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  24. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  25. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ a b c d e f g Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  27. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  28. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  29. ^ a b "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  30. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  31. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 1%
  32. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  33. ^ "None/other" with 2%; "refused" with 5%
  34. ^ "None/other" and "refused" with 1%
  35. ^ a b "Another Party Candidate" with 2%
  36. ^ a b "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  37. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sampling period
  38. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  39. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
  40. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  41. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  42. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  43. ^ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  44. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  45. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "None/other" with 0%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 1%
  48. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  49. ^ "Another Party Candidate"
  50. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" and West (B) with 1%
  51. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding third party and undecided voters
  52. ^ a b c "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
  53. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  54. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" 1%
  55. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  56. ^ "Other party candidate" with 8%
  57. ^ "Other" with 2%
  58. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  59. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  60. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  61. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  62. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Neither" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  63. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  64. ^ a b c "Neither" with 4%; "Refused" with 0%
  65. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  66. ^ a b "Other" with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  67. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "refused" with 1%
  68. ^ a b c d A third party candidate with 6%; would not vote with 2%
  69. ^ a b c d e f "Neither" with 4%; "refused" with 1%
  70. ^ a b c "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 0%
  71. ^ a b c d "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 1%
  72. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  73. ^ A third party candidate with 8%; would not vote with 2%
  74. ^ a b "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 2%
  75. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  76. ^ "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 3%
  77. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "refused" with 2%
  78. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 2%
  79. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "refused" with 0%
  80. ^ "Other" with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  81. ^ "Other" with 6%; would not vote with 3%
  82. ^ a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  83. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 0.9%
  84. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  85. ^ a b "Would probably or definitely vote for someone other than Trump" with 57%
  86. ^ a b "Refused" with 0%
  87. ^ Listed as "unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "likely to vote for Trump"
  88. ^ Jorgensen and Cohen were nominated by the Libertarian Party of Wisconsin but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  89. ^ Carroll and Cohen patel were nominated by the American Solidarity Party but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not have ballot access.
  90. ^ Hawkins and Walker were nominated by the Wisconsin Green Party but registered as independent write-in candidates because the party was not recognized by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.
  91. ^ La Riva and Freeman were nominated by the Party for Socialism and Liberation but registered as independent write-in candidates because the party was not recognized by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ a b c d The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  4. ^ a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  7. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  9. ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care

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Further reading

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