2012 United States Senate election in New York

2012 United States Senate election in New York
Turnout	53.2% (voting eligible)
	Gillibrand: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Long: 40–50% 50–60%
U.S. senator before election; Kirsten Gillibrand; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Kirsten Gillibrand; Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections.

Governor David Paterson appointed then-U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to serve as U.S. Senator from New York until the 2010 special election, succeeding former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton, who resigned to serve as U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Gillibrand won the special election in 2010 with 62.95% of the vote over former U.S. Representative Joseph DioGuardi.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won re-election to her first full term. She was opposed in the general election by Wendy Long (who ran on the Republican and Conservative Party tickets) and by three minor party candidates. Gillibrand was re-elected with 72% of the vote. She carried 60 out of 62 counties statewide, losing only Wyoming and Alleghany counties.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Kirsten Gillibrand, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Gillibrand was endorsed by the Independence Party of New York and the Working Families Party and appeared on the ballot lines of both of those parties in the general election.^[3]^[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Wendy E. Long, attorney^[5]
George Maragos, Nassau County Comptroller^[6]
Bob Turner, U.S. Representative, New York's 9th congressional district^[7]

The 2012 New York State Republican Convention took place on March 16, 2012.^[8] Candidates Wendy Long, George Maragos, and Congressman Bob Turner each reached the threshold of 25% of the weighted vote necessary to qualify for the June 26 primary ballot; however, none of the candidates achieved a majority.^[9] Long prevailed by a sizeable margin in the June 26 Republican primary, receiving 50.9% of the vote; Turner received 35.6% and Maragos 13.5%.^[10]

Long was designated as the nominee for the Conservative Party of New York State, and appeared on its ballot line in the general election as well as the Republican Party line.^[4]^[11]

Withdrew

Joe Carvin, Rye Town Supervisor,^[12] withdrew on March 16, 2012^[13] to run for the House of Representatives against Nita Lowey.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Wendy Long	George Maragos	Bob Turner	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[14]	March 28 – April 2, 2012	372	±5.1%	11%	7%	19%	2%	61%
Siena College^[15]	April 1–4, 2012	218	±6.6%	10%	5%	19%	—	66%
Siena College^[16]	May 6–10, 2012	205	±6.8%	12%	6%	15%	—	67%
Siena College^[17]	June 3–6, 2012	201	±6.9%	11%	3%	16%	—	70%

Endorsements

Wendy Long

John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the United Nations
John Faso, 2006 gubernatorial candidate
Steve Forbes, publisher and former presidential candidate
Sean Hannity, talk radio/television host
Laura Ingraham, talk radio host
Brian Kolb, State Assembly Minority Leader
Rick Lazio, former US Congressman from New York
National Organization for Marriage
The New York Post
Grover Norquist
Carl Paladino, 2010 gubernatorial candidate
Dennis Vacco, former New York State Attorney General

Bob Turner

Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City, 2008 presidential candidate, and Time Person of the Year for 2001
Martin Golden, New York State Senator from the 22nd District
Rush Limbaugh, talk radio host

Source: Update for US Senate Election NY 2012: http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/USSenator_07292013.pdf

Results

Republican primary results^[18]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Wendy Long	75,924	50.2%
	Republican	Bob Turner	54,196	35.9%
	Republican	George Maragos	21,002	13.9%
Total votes			151,122	100.0%

General election

Candidates

Colia Clark (Green), civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[19]
Chris Edes (Libertarian)
Kirsten Gillibrand (Democratic, Working Families, Independence), incumbent U.S. Senator
Wendy Long (Republican, Conservative), attorney
John Mangelli (Common Sense Party)

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	$13,778,867	$3,734,097	$10,541,156	$0
Wendy Long (R)	$336,976	$240,564	$96,411	$250,077
Chris Edes (L)	$2,017	$668	$1,348	$0
John Mangelli (I)	$43,819	$43,820	$0	$22,120
Source: Federal Election Commission^[20]^[21]^[22]^[23]

Top contributors

^[24]

Kirsten Gillibrand	Contribution	Wendy Long	Contribution
Boies, Schiller & Flexner	$394,664	Citizens United	$10,000
Davis Polk & Wardwell	$314,600	Susan B. Anthony List	$10,000
Corning Inc.	$150,650	Davis, Polk & Wardwell	$8,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co	$143,800	Kirkland & Ellis	$7,000
Morgan Stanley	$140,800	Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz	$6,000
National Amusements Inc.	$126,850	Alta Partners	$5,500
Goldman Sachs	$117,400	Actimize	$5,000
Blackstone Group	$106,700	Carlyle Group	$5,000
Sullivan & Cromwell	$100,750	Credit Suisse Group	$5,000
Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett	$95,700	Crow Holdings	$5,000

Top industries

^[25]

Kirsten Gillibrand	Contribution	Wendy Long	Contribution
Lawyers/law firms	$4,050,294	Lawyers/law firms	$38,550
Financial Institutions	$2,748,640	Financial institutions	$31,750
Real estate	$1,257,504	Real estate	$26,250
Retired	$921,738	Retired	$25,050
Women's issues	$853,517	Misc. finance	$16,000
Entertainment industry	$764,677	Women's issues	$15,150
Lobbyists	$723,596	Republican/Conservative	$11,250
Misc. finance	$644,953	Education	$7,250
Business services	$621,286	Misc. business	$7,000
Insurance	$518,275	Construction services	$5,000

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[26]	Solid D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[27]	Safe D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[28]	Safe D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[29]	Safe D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Wendy Long (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[14]	March 28 – April 2, 2012	1,597	±2.5%	58%	25%	1%	13%
Siena College^[15]	April 1–4, 2012	808	±3.4%	63%	23%	—	14%
Siena College^[16]	May 6–10, 2012	766	±3.5%	60%	26%	—	14%
Quinnipiac^[30]	May 22–28, 2012	1,504	±2.5%	58%	24%	1%	15%
Siena College^[17]	June 3–6, 2012	807	±3.4%	65%	22%	—	12%
Siena College^[31]	July 10–15, 2012	758	±3.6%	62%	25%	—	13%
Quinnipiac^[32]	July 17–23, 2012	1,779	±2.3%	57%	24%	1%	16%
Siena College^[33]	August 14–19, 2012	671	±3.8%	65%	22%	—	13%
Quinnipiac^[34]	September 4–9, 2012	1,468	±2.5%	64%	27%	—	9%
Marist^[35]	October 18–21, 2012	565	±4.1%	68%	24%	—	8%
Siena College^[36]	October 22–24, 2012	750	±3.6%	67%	24%	—	8%
SurveyUSA^[37]	October 23–25, 2012	554	±4.1%	64%	22%	7%	7%

Hypothetical polling

with George Maragos

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	George Maragos (R)	Other	Undecided
Siena College^[38]	November 8–13, 2011	803	±3.5%	65%	17%	—	18%
Siena College^[39]	January 8–12, 2012	805	±3.5%	63%	22%	—	15%
Siena College^[40]	January 29 – February 1, 2012	807	±3.4%	63%	20%	—	17%
SurveyUSA^[41]	February 24–26, 2012	518	±4.4%	53%	23%	—	25%
Siena College^[42]	February 26–29, 2012	808	±3.4%	68%	19%	—	13%
Quinnipiac^[14]	March 28 – April 2, 2012	1,597	±2.5%	57%	23%	2%	15%
Siena College^[15]	April 1–4, 2012	808	±3.4%	65%	21%	—	14%
Siena College^[16]	May 6–10, 2012	766	±3.5%	60%	25%	—	15%
Quinnipiac^[30]	May 22–28, 2012	1,504	±2.5%	57%	24%	1%	16%
Siena College^[17]	June 3–6, 2012	807	±3.4%	65%	23%	—	13%

with Bob Turner

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Bob Turner (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac^[14]	March 28 – April 2, 2012	1,597	±2.5%	57%	27%	1%	13%
Siena College^[15]	April 1–4, 2012	808	±3.4%	65%	24%	—	11%
Siena College^[16]	May 6–10, 2012	766	±3.5%	59%	25%	—	15%
Quinnipiac^[30]	May 22–28, 2012	1,504	±2.5%	56%	26%	0%	15%
Siena College^[17]	June 3–6, 2012	807	±3.4%	63%	25%	—	11%

with Marc Cenedella

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Marc Cenedella (R)	Undecided
Siena College^[43]	January 29 – February 1, 2012	807	±3.4%	65%	18%	17%

with Harry Wilson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Harry Wilson (R)	Undecided
Siena College^[38]	November 8–13, 2011	803	±3.5%	63%	21%	16%
Siena College^[39]	January 8–12, 2012	805	±3.5%	63%	23%	14%

Results

2012 United States Senate election in New York^[44]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kirsten Gillibrand	4,432,525	66.38%	+11.38%
	Working Families	Kirsten Gillibrand	251,292	3.76%	−0.29%
	Independence	Kirsten Gillibrand	138,513	2.07%	−1.83%
	Total	Kirsten Gillibrand (incumbent)	4,822,330	72.21%	+9.26%
	Republican	Wendy Long	1,517,578	22.73%	−6.96%
	Conservative	Wendy Long	241,124	3.61%	−1.81%
	Total	Wendy Long	1,758,702	26.34%	−8.77%
	Green	Colia Clark	42,591	0.64%	−0.15%
	Libertarian	Chris Edes	32,002	0.48%	+0.07%
	Independent	John Mangelli	22,041	0.33%	N/A
Total votes			6,677,666	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Genesee (largest municipality: Batavia)
Putnam (largest municipality: Lake Carmel)
Tioga (largest municipality: Waverly)
Orleans (largest municipality: Albion)
Wayne (largest municipality: Newark)

By congressional district

Gillibrand won all 27 congressional districts, including six held by Republicans.^[45] She won all but two with over 60% of the vote, with the 27th being her weakest with only 55% of the vote.

District	Gillibrand	Long	Representative
1st	62.13%	36.58%	Tim Bishop
2nd	63.33%	35.51%	Peter T. King
3rd	62.51%	36.28%	Steve Israel
4th	66.17%	32.88%	Carolyn McCarthy
5th	92.32	7.21%	Gregory Meeks
6th	75.99%	22.58%	Grace Meng
7th	90.67%	7.65%	Nydia Velázquez
8th	91.75%	7.35%	Hakeem Jeffries
9th	89.59%	9.33%	Yvette Clarke
10th	81.28%	17.15%	Jerry Nadler
11th	64.5%	34.23%	Michael Grimm
12th	81.74%	16.49%	Carolyn Maloney
13th	95.05%	3.91%	Charles B. Rangel
14th	84.85%	13.76%	Joe Crowley
15th	96.89%	2.7%	Jose Serrano
16th	79.78%	19.23%	Eliot Engel
17th	68.41%	30.33%	Nita Lowey
18th	64.33%	34.22%	Sean Patrick Maloney
19th	65.98%	32.34%	Chris Gibson
20th	71.07%	27.26%	Paul Tonko
21st	65.41%	33.1%	Bill Owens
22nd	61.77%	36.05%	Richard L. Hanna
23rd	58.95%	39.13%	Tom Reed
24th	65.34%	32.06%	Dan Maffei
25th	66.81%	31.45%	Louise Slaughter
26th	73.31%	24.99%	Brian Higgins
27th	55.55%	42.71%	Chris Collins

References

^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
^ Hill, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again". Associated Press. Retrieved December 28, 2010.
^ Johnson, Michael (March 12, 2012). "State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
^ ^a ^b "New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long". The Post-Standard. Associated Press. March 19, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
^ Benjamin, Liz (January 29, 2012). "A New Challenger To Gillibrand?". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2012.
^ "U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch". patch.com. Archived from the original on July 27, 2011. Retrieved June 3, 2011.
^ Campbell, Colin (March 13, 2012). "Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand". Politicker. Retrieved March 13, 2012.
^ Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012). Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention. Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.
^ Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012). Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate. Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
^ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". Wall Street Journal. News Corporation. June 27, 2012. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
^ "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". WSJ.com. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012.
^ Vielkind, Jimmy (February 29, 2012). "Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand". Albany Times Union. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
^ Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012). Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated). Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Siena College ^{[permanent dead link]}
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Siena College
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Siena College
^ "2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. November 8, 2016.
^ "Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand". Irregular Times. April 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 5, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.
^ "Gillibrand Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Long Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Mangelli Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Edes Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "New York Senate Race". opensecrets.org.
^ "Kansas District 04 Race". opensecrets.org.
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ ^a ^b ^c Quinnipiac Archived May 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Siena College
^ Quinnipiac Archived July 28, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Siena College
^ Quinnipiac Archived September 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ Marist
^ Siena College
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b Siena College
^ ^a ^b Siena College
^ Siena College
^ SurveyUSA
^ Siena College
^ Siena College
^ "2012 U.S. Senate election results" (PDF). Elections.NY.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 7, 2019. Retrieved January 19, 2019.
^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites

[VEP12-1] Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.

[2] Hill, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Day after win, NY Sen. Gillibrand is running again". Associated Press. Retrieved December 28, 2010.

[3] Johnson, Michael (March 12, 2012). "State Independence Party Backs Gillibrand". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.

[ap-4] "New York Democrats back Kirsten Gillibrand for US Senate; Conservatives pick Wendy Long". The Post-Standard. Associated Press. March 19, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.

[5] Benjamin, Liz (January 29, 2012). "A New Challenger To Gillibrand?". Capital Tonight. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2012.

[6] "U.S. Senate Hopeful Speaks to Rockland Republicans - Pearl River, NY Patch". patch.com. Archived from the original on July 27, 2011. Retrieved June 3, 2011.

[7] Campbell, Colin (March 13, 2012). "Bob Turner Announces U.S. Senate Campaign Against Kirsten Gillibrand". Politicker. Retrieved March 13, 2012.

[8] Seiler, Casey (February 19, 2012). Save the date: GOP plans March 16 convention. Capitol Confidential (Albany Times-Union). Retrieved February 19, 2012.

[9] Benjamin, Liz (March 16, 2012). Three-Way GOP Primary For US Senate. Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.

[10] "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". Wall Street Journal. News Corporation. June 27, 2012. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.

[11] "Long wins NY Senate GOP primary to face Gillibrand". WSJ.com. Archived from the original on June 28, 2012.

[12] Vielkind, Jimmy (February 29, 2012). "Joe Carvin of Rye also challenging Gillibrand". Albany Times Union. Retrieved February 29, 2012.

[13] Benjamin, Elizabeth (March 16, 2012). Carvin Out Of US Senate Race (Updated). Capital Tonight. Retrieved March 16, 2012.

[Quinnipiac-14] Quinnipiac Archived October 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[Siena_College-15] Siena College ^{[permanent dead link]}

[siena.edu-16] Siena College

[web.archive.org-17] Siena College

[18] "2016 Election Results: President Live Map by State, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. November 8, 2016.

[it-19] "Liberal Alternatives To Kirsten Gillibrand". Irregular Times. April 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 5, 2012. Retrieved May 6, 2012.

[20] "Gillibrand Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}

[21] "Long Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}

[22] "Mangelli Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}

[23] "Edes Campaign Finances". fec.gov.^{[permanent dead link]}

[24] "New York Senate Race". opensecrets.org.

[25] "Kansas District 04 Race". opensecrets.org.

[26] "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[27] "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[28] "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[29] "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[quinnipiac.edu-30] Quinnipiac Archived May 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[31] Siena College

[32] Quinnipiac Archived July 28, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[33] Siena College

[34] Quinnipiac Archived September 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine

[35] Marist

[36] Siena College

[37] SurveyUSA

[ReferenceA-38] Siena College

[ReferenceB-39] Siena College

[40] Siena College

[41] SurveyUSA

[42] Siena College

[43] Siena College

[44] "2012 U.S. Senate election results" (PDF). Elections.NY.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 7, 2019. Retrieved January 19, 2019.

[45] "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Polling

Endorsements

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Top contributors

Top industries

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

See also

References

External links