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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2012 United States gubernatorial elections.

2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
← 2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2014 →
 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 378,934 294,024
Percentage 54.61% 42.53%
Hassan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Lamontagne:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
     70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

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The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.

Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election.[1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations.[2][3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley 		Maggie
Hassan 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14] August 9–12, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 24% 30% — 46%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 477 ± 4.5% 20% 23% — 57%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Hassan—60–70%
  Hassan—50–60%
  Hassan—40–50%
  Cilley—50–60%
  Cilley—40–50%
Democratic primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Maggie Hassan 45,120 53.1
Democratic Jackie Cilley 33,066 38.9
Democratic Bill Kennedy 5,936 7.0
Democratic Other 850 1.0
Total votes 84,972 100

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ovide
Lamontagne 		Kevin
Smith 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14] August 9–12, 2012 662 ± 3.8% 49% 21% — 30%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 53% 13% — 34%
Public Policy Polling[27] January 7–8, 2012 1,771 ± 2.3% 40% 12% — 48%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Lamontagne—80–90%
  Lamontagne—60–70%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 73,437 67.7
Republican Kevin Smith 32,396 29.8
Republican Robert Tarr 1,725 1.6
Republican Other 988 0.9
Total votes 108,546 100

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • John Babiarz (Libertarian), businessman and party nominee for governor in 2000, 2002, and 2010[29]
  • Maggie Hassan (D), former majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate
  • Ovide Lamontagne (R), attorney, Republican nominee for governor in 1996, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[32] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[33] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[34] November 4, 2012 750 ± 4% 50% 45% 1% 4%
New England College[35] November 3–4, 2012 666 ± 4.1% 47% 45% 1% 7%
Public Policy Polling[36] November 3–4, 2012 1,550 ± 2.5% 51% 47% — 2%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[37] November 1–4, 2012 789 ± 3.5% 54% 43% 3% —
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[38] October 31–November 2, 2012 502 ± 4.4% 47% 42% 3% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[39] October 28–29, 2012 1013 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling[40] October 26–28, 2012 874 ± 3.3% 48% 44% — 8%
New England College[41] October 23–25, 2012 571 ± 4.1% 45% 45% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[42] October 23, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% 1% 5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[43] October 17–21, 2012 773 ± 3.5% 43% 35% 3% 18%
Public Policy Polling[44] October 17–19, 2012 1,036 ± 3.0% 45% 43% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports[45] October 15, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% — 5%
Suffolk University/7NEWS[46] October 12–14, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 41% 38% 4% 16%
American Research Group[47] October 9–11, 2012 600 ± 4% 40% 46% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports[48] October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 46% — 5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[49] October 1–6, 2012 419 ± 4.8% 35% 39% 3% 23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[50] September 27–30, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 38% 36% 2% 25%
Public Policy Polling[51] September 24–25, 2012 862 ± 3.3% 51% 44% — 5%
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College[52] September 23–25, 2012 1012 ± 3.1% 47% 45% 1% 7%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner[53] September 15–19, 2012 600 ± 4.9% 48% 46% — 6%
Rasmussen Reports[54] September 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 48% 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling[15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 45% 43% — 12%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 33% 1% 35%
Rasmussen Reports[56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 42% — 22%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 39% 40% — 21%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 34% 29% 1% 36%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[58] January 25–February 2, 2012 495 ± 4.4% 26% 32% 1% 41%
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30–July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 35% 41% — 24%
Hypothetical polling

With Cilley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 42% 42% — 16%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 35% 1% 33%
Rasmussen Reports[56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 39% 41% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 38% 38% — 24%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 31% 30% 1% 38%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jackie
Cilley (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 39% 38% — 23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 28% 1% 39%
Rasmussen Reports[56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 39% 37% — 24%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 37% 32% — 31%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 30% 23% 1% 47%

With Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] August 9–12, 2012 1,055 ± 3.0% 42% 39% — 20%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 31% 29% 1% 39%
Rasmussen Reports[56] June 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 39% — 25%
Public Policy Polling[15] May 10–13, 2012 1,163 ± 2.9% 37% 31% — 32%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[57] April 9–20, 2012 486 ± 4.4% 29% 24% 1% 46%

With Kennedy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Kennedy (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 29% 35% 1% 36%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bill
Kennedy (D) 		Kevin
Smith (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[55] August 1–12, 2012 555 ± 4.2% 27% 29% 1% 44%

With Bradley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 30% 38% — 31%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 33% 39% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 32% 38% — 31%

With Connolly

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 34% 40% — 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 36% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Connolly (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 44% — 20%

With Gatsas

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Ted
Gatsas (R) 		Other Undecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire[58] January 25-February 2, 2012 495 ± 4.4% 27% 29% 1% 43%

With Lynch

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		Jeb
Bradley (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 54% 35% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 33% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 54% 36% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 33% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 55% 34% — 11%
Public Policy Polling[60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 57% 29% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Lynch (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 51% 40% — 8%
Public Policy Polling[60] March 31-April 3, 2011 769 ± 3.5% 54% 36% — 11%

With Marchand

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		Ovide
Lamontagne (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 33% 40% — 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 34% 36% — 30%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Steve
Marchand (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 35% 44% — 21%

With Stephen

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		John
Stephen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 37% — 27%

With Sununu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		John E.
Sununu (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[59] June 30-July 5, 2011 662 ± 3.8% 36% 45% — 19%

Results

[edit]
2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[61]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 378,934 54.61% +1.98%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 295,026 42.52% −2.51%
Libertarian John J. Babiarz 19,251 2.77% +0.56%
Write-in 666 0.10% -0.02%
Total votes 693,877 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Hassan won both congressional districts.[62]

District Hassan Lamontagne Representative
1st 52.98% 44.43% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 56.38% 40.66% Annie Kuster

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Langley, Karen (September 16, 2011). "Lynch will not seek a fifth term". Concord Monitor. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  2. ^ "2012 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  3. ^ "Lamontagne, Hassan will face off in governor's race". Archived from the original on November 29, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2012.
  4. ^ New Hampshire
  5. ^ Hall, Beth LaMontagne (February 7, 2012). "Former state Sen. Cilley enters race for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on December 14, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2012.
  6. ^ Marchocki, Kathryn (October 25, 2011). "Former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan makes gubernatorial bid official". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  7. ^ Claffey, Jason (April 4, 2012). "Democratic Field for Governor to Expand". Exeter, NH Patch. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  8. ^ Timmins, Annmarie (April 5, 2012). "Political newcomer to run for governor". Concord Monitor. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  9. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 11, 2012). "Mark Connolly, financial whistle-blower, won't run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  10. ^ Ireland, Doug (January 13, 2012). "Stonyfield CEO steps down". The Eagle-Tribune. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  11. ^ Cresta, Joey (December 21, 2011). "Ex-Mayor accepts UNH job, ending political rumblings". The Portsmouth Herald. Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  12. ^ "McLaughlin won't run for governor". The Laconia Daily Sun. January 26, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  13. ^ Pindell, James (February 7, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: Shumaker Will Not Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  14. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ "2012 Governor - Democratic Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 3, 2012. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  17. ^ Houghton, Kimberly (September 19, 2011). "Ovide Lamontagne makes candidacy for governor official". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  18. ^ DiStaso, John (November 16, 2011). "Conservative Kevin Smith says 'I'm in' for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on January 28, 2012. Retrieved November 16, 2011.
  19. ^ "In NH, a big election year by the numbers, too". Nashua Telegraph. June 20, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  20. ^ Curtis, Danielle (May 17, 2012). "Binnie won't enter governor race". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved May 17, 2012.
  21. ^ Pindell, James (January 26, 2012). "Bradley Won't Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  22. ^ Cleveland, Kathy (September 22, 2011). "Sen. Peter Bragdon rules out run for governor in 2012". Milford Cabinet. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  23. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 8, 2012). "Manchester mayor Gatsas bows out of race for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved March 12, 2012.
  24. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (March 31, 2012). "Kenda rules out run for governor". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  25. ^ Pindell, James (February 13, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: NH Education Board Chair Not Running For Governor". Political Scoop. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved February 14, 2012.
  26. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (February 13, 2012). "Stephen, 2010 GOP governor nominee, will not run again". Nashua Telegraph. Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  27. ^ Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ "2012 Governor - Republican Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  29. ^ Schinella, Tony (June 12, 2012). "VIDEO: Babiarz Running for Governor". Amherst, NH Patch. Archived from the original on June 22, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  30. ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  31. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  32. ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  33. ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ New England College
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  38. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  39. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ New England College
  42. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  44. ^ Public Policy Polling
  45. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  46. ^ Suffolk University/7NEWS Archived 2012-10-17 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ^ American Research Group
  48. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  49. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  50. ^ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling
  52. ^ NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College
  53. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Archived 2012-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  55. ^ a b c d e f WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  56. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  57. ^ a b c d WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  58. ^ a b WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  59. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Public Policy Polling
  60. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ "Governor - 2012 General Election - NHSOS". Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  62. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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