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2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

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2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
← 2020 November 8, 2022 2024 →
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Last election 1 0 0
Seats won 2 0 0
Seat change Increase 1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 245,081 158,745 47,195
Percentage 52.86% 34.24% 10.18%
Swing Decrease 3.53% Decrease 9.37% New
     Republican hold      Republican gain
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 8, 2022, to elect two U.S. Representatives from Montana, one from each of its congressional districts. Prior to this election cycle, Montana had one at-large district, represented by Republican Matt Rosendale. However, during the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained the 2nd district that it lost in 1993.

As a result, Montana became the first state relegated from multi-district to at-large status that reclaimed a second representative in the House of Representatives, in which Rosendale ran for re-election.[1][2]

Overview

[edit]

District

[edit]
District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 120,285 49.73% 112,271 46.42% 9,305 3.85% 241,861 100.00% Republican gain
District 2 120,899 56.57% 42,905 20.08% 49,892 23.35% 213,696 100.00% Republican hold
Total 241,184 52.94% 155,176 34.06% 59,197 12.99% 455,557 100.00%
Popular vote
Republican
 
 52.94%
Democratic
 
 34.06%
Independent
 
 10.30%
Libertarian
 
 2.70%
House seats
Republican
 
 100.00%

District 1

[edit]
See also: Montana's 1st congressional district
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district election
2024 →
 
Nominee Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 123,102 115,265
Percentage 49.7% 46.5%
Zinke:      50−60%      60−70%      70−80%      80−90%
Tranel:      40−50%      50−60%      60−70%      70−80%      80−90%      >90%
No votes:      
U.S. Representative before election

None
(New district)

 Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Bozeman and Butte.[3] Prior to redistricting in 2021, it was represented along with the rest of the state by at-large district representative Matt Rosendale. Since Rosendale ran for re-election in the 2nd district, this district was an open seat.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ryan Zinke

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

State officials

Organizations

Declined to endorse

U.S. Representative

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
  Zinke
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Olszewski
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke 35,601 41.7
Republican Albert Olszewski 33,927 39.7
Republican Mary Todd 8,915 10.4
Republican Matthew Jette 4,973 5.8
Republican Mitch Heuer 1,953 2.3
Total votes 85,369 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
Withdrew
[edit]
Declined
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Monica Tranel

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Labor unions

Tom Winter

U.S. Representative

Organization

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Monica Tranel 37,138 64.9
Democratic Cora Neumann 15,396 26.9
Democratic Tom Winter 4,723 8.2
Total votes 57,257 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • John Lamb, farmer and business owner[30]

General election

[edit]

Debate

[edit]
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel John Lamb
1 Oct. 1, 2022 KTVQ Donna Kelly [31] P P N

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Lean R October 19, 2022
Inside Elections[33] Lean R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Lean R October 19, 2022
Politico[35] Likely R April 5, 2022
RCP[36] Likely R June 9, 2022
Fox News[37] Lean R October 18, 2022
DDHQ[38] Likely R September 29, 2022
538[39] Likely R November 8, 2022
The Economist[40] Likely R September 28, 2022

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ryan
Zinke (R) 		Monica
Tranel (D) 		John
Lamb (L) 		Undecided
MSU Billings[41] October 3–14, 2022 <343 (V)[b] ± 5.9% 34% 25% 17% 20%
Victoria Research (D)[42][A] September 14–19, 2022 400 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 40% 8% 11%
Impact Research (D)[43][B] September 14–19, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 43% 3% 9%

Results

[edit]
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district election[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke 123,102 49.65%
Democratic Monica Tranel 115,265 46.49%
Libertarian John Lamb 9,593 3.87%
Total votes 247,960 100.00%
Republican win (new seat)
County results
[edit]

Source[44]

Ryan Zinke
Republican 		Monica Tranel
Democratic 		John Lamb
Libertarian 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Beaverhead 3,004 66.36% 1,330 29.38% 193 4.26% 1,674 36.98% 4,527
Deer Lodge 1,510 37.96% 2,256 56.71% 212 5.33% -746 -18.75% 3,978
Flathead 29,290 61.37% 16,571 34.72% 1,864 3.91% 12,719 26.65% 47,725
Gallatin 22,288 42.18% 28,747 54.40% 1,810 3.43% -6,459 -12.22% 52,845
Glacier 1,213 39.49% 1,748 56.90% 111 3.61% -535 -17.42% 3,072
Granite 1,149 64.48% 533 29.91% 100 5.61% 616 34.57% 1,782
Lake 7,389 55.48% 5,388 40.46% 541 4.06% 2,001 15.02% 13,318
Lincoln 6,687 71.65% 2,200 23.57% 446 4.78% 4,487 48.08% 9,333
Madison 3,290 65.39% 1,483 29.48% 258 5.13% 1,807 35.92% 5,031
Mineral 1,458 66.76% 580 26.56% 146 6.68% 878 40.20% 2,184
Missoula 18,846 33.33% 35,991 63.66% 1,703 3.01% -17,145 -30.32% 56,540
Pondera 461 64.57% 227 31.79% 26 3.64% 234 32.77% 714
Powell 1,762 68.48% 639 24.83% 172 6.68% 1,123 43.65% 2,573
Ravalli 15,158 64.32% 7,523 31.92% 886 3.76% 7,635 32.40% 23,567
Sanders 4,549 68.67% 1,615 24.38% 460 6.94% 2,934 44.29% 6,624
Silver Bow 5,048 35.68% 8,434 59.62% 665 4.70% -3,386 -23.93% 14,147

District 2

[edit]
See also: Montana's 2nd congressional district
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district election
 
Nominee Matt Rosendale Gary Buchanan Penny Ronning
Party Republican Independent Democratic
Popular vote 121,979 46,915 43,480
Percentage 56.6% 21.9% 20.2%
County results
Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Precinct results
Rosendale:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Buchanan:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Ronning:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No votes
U.S. Representative before election

Matt Rosendale
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican

The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena.[3] Incumbent Matt Rosendale, a Republican who was elected in the at-large district with 56.4% of the vote in 2020, sought re-election in this district.[45]

This was the first U.S. congressional election where the Democratic nominee finished third since the 2018 Maine Senate race.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Kyle Austin, healthcare company owner[47]
  • James Boyette, sales manager[7]
  • Charles Walking Child, activist[48]
Declined
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Matt Rosendale

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[7][51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale (incumbent) 73,453 75.7
Republican Kyle Austin 11,930 12.3
Republican Charles Walking Child 5,909 6.1
Republican James Boyette 5,712 5.9
Total votes 97,004 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Skylar Williams, student[48]
Deceased
[edit]
Withdrawn
[edit]
  • Jack Ballard, outdoor writer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[54][55]
Declined
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Penny Ronning

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Penny Ronning 21,983 58.5
Democratic Mark Sweeney † 8,586 22.8
Democratic Skylar Williams 7,029 18.7
Total votes 37,598 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Sam Rankin, lawyer, real estate broker, and perennial candidate[57]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Roger Roots, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014[7]
  • Samuel Thomas[7]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Sam Rankin 958 47.0
Libertarian Samuel Thomas 554 27.2
Libertarian Roger Roots 526 25.8
Total votes 2,038 100.0

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Declared
[edit]
  • Gary Buchanan, financial advisor and former director of the Montana Department of Commerce[58]
Disqualified
[edit]
  • Curt Zygmond, beer brewing intern[59][60]

Endorsements

[edit]
Gary Buchanan

State officials

State legislators

Local politicians

Labor unions

General election

[edit]

Debate

[edit]
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Independent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Matt Rosendale Penny Ronning Sam Rankin Gary Buchanan
1 Oct. 1, 2022 KTVQ [64] P P N P

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Solid R November 16, 2021
Inside Elections[33] Solid R November 19, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Safe R November 17, 2021
Politico[35] Solid R April 5, 2022
RCP[36] Safe R June 9, 2022
Fox News[37] Solid R July 11, 2022
DDHQ[38] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[39] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[40] Safe R September 28, 2022

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Rosendale (R) 		Penny
Ronning (D) 		Gary
Buchanan (I) 		Sam
Rankin (L) 		Undecided
MSU Billings[41] October 3–14, 2022 <343 (V)[b] ± 5.9% 35% 17% 21% 5% 17%

Results

[edit]
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district election[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale (incumbent) 121,979 56.56%
Independent Gary Buchanan 47,195 21.88%
Democratic Penny Ronning 43,480 20.16%
Libertarian Sam Rankin 3,018 1.40%
Total votes 215,672 100.00%
Republican hold
County results
[edit]

Source[44]

Matt Rosendale
Republican 		Gary Buchanan
Independent 		Penny Ronning
Democratic 		Sam Rankin
Libertarian 		Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Big Horn 1,476 45.47% 505 15.56% 1,214 37.40% 51 1.57% 262 8.07% 3,246
Blaine 1,040 56.06% 208 11.21% 587 31.64% 20 1.08% 453 24.42% 1,855
Broadwater 2,417 70.47% 559 16.30% 399 11.63% 55 1.60% 1,858 54.17% 3,430
Carbon 3,294 56.47% 1,420 24.34% 1,030 17.66% 89 1.53% 1,874 32.13% 5,833
Carter 663 87.35% 46 6.06% 37 4.87% 13 1.71% 617 81.29% 759
Cascade 15,634 53.76% 6,397 22.00% 6,638 22.83% 410 1.41% 8,996 30.94% 29,079
Chouteau 1,463 63.89% 390 17.03% 395 17.25% 42 1.83% 1,068 46.64% 2,290
Custer 2,959 64.88% 684 15.00% 848 18.59% 70 1.53% 2,111 46.28% 4,561
Daniels 601 78.98% 68 8.94% 80 10.51% 12 1.58% 521 68.46% 761
Dawson 2,583 72.68% 425 11.96% 524 14.74% 22 0.62% 2,059 57.93% 3,554
Fallon 1,053 84.85% 87 7.01% 94 7.57% 7 0.56% 959 77.28% 1,241
Fergus 3,808 70.19% 927 17.09% 619 11.41% 71 1.31% 2,881 53.11% 5,425
Garfield 586 89.06% 46 6.99% 18 2.74% 8 1.22% 540 82.07% 658
Golden Valley 348 78.03% 53 11.88% 37 8.30% 8 1.79% 295 66.14% 446
Hill 2,703 52.58% 871 16.94% 1,463 28.46% 104 2.02% 1,240 24.12% 5,141
Jefferson 3,752 57.91% 1,615 24.93% 1,031 15.91% 81 1.25% 2,137 32.98% 6,479
Judith Basin 784 71.66% 170 15.54% 127 11.61% 13 1.19% 614 56.12% 1,094
Lewis and Clark 14,237 42.72% 11,201 33.61% 7,422 22.27% 463 1.39% 3,036 9.11% 33,323
Liberty 660 71.97% 134 14.61% 117 12.76% 6 0.65% 526 57.36% 917
McCone 770 83.06% 59 6.36% 92 9.92% 6 0.65% 678 73.14% 927
Meagher 628 68.78% 176 19.28% 89 9.75% 20 2.19% 452 49.51% 913
Musselshell 1,793 79.37% 256 11.33% 183 8.10% 27 1.20% 1,537 68.04% 2,259
Park 4,236 46.98% 2,146 23.80% 2,487 27.58% 148 1.64% 1,749 19.40% 9,017
Petroleum 235 81.31% 39 13.49% 13 4.50% 2 0.69% 196 67.82% 289
Phillips 1,376 78.40% 159 9.06% 203 11.57% 17 0.97% 1,173 66.84% 1,755
Pondera 1,081 67.31% 282 17.56% 215 13.39% 28 1.74% 799 49.75 1,606
Powder River 724 80.53% 108 12.01% 62 6.90% 5 0.56% 616 68.52% 899
Prairie 467 76.68% 62 10.18% 72 11.82% 8 1.31% 395 64.86% 609
Richland 2,941 78.34% 234 6.23% 530 14.12% 49 1.31% 2,411 64.22% 3,754
Roosevelt 1,396 54.15% 166 6.44% 969 37.59% 47 1.82% 427 16.56% 2,578
Rosebud 1,747 64.56% 413 15.26% 516 19.07% 30 1.11% 1,231 45.49% 2,706
Sheridan 1,097 68.09% 130 8.07% 353 21.91% 31 1.92% 744 46.18% 1,611
Stillwater 3,214 70.98% 768 16.96% 488 10.78% 58 1.28% 2,446 54.02% 4,528
Sweet Grass 1,276 68.57% 362 19.45% 205 11.02% 18 0.97% 914 49.11% 1,861
Teton 1,917 65.88% 485 16.67% 479 16.46% 29 1.00% 1,432 49.21% 2,910
Toole 1,212 73.14% 222 13.40% 194 11.71% 29 1.75% 990 59.75% 1,657
Treasure 307 72.75% 91 21.56% 22 5.21% 2 0.47% 216 51.18% 422
Valley 2,217 68.85% 429 13.32% 512 15.90% 62 1.93% 1,705 52.95% 3,220
Wheatland 576 68.49% 168 19.98% 84 9.99% 13 1.55% 408 48.51% 841
Wibaux 357 81.32% 45 10.25% 33 7.52% 4 0.91% 312 71.07% 439
Yellowstone 32,351 53.23% 14,589 24.00% 12,999 21.39% 840 1.38% 17,762 29.22% 60,779

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b The poll had 343 total respondents across both congressional districts
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Big Sky Voters PAC, which supports Tranel
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Tranel's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Lutey, Tom (April 26, 2021). "Montana gains second U.S. House seat". The Billings Gazette.
  2. ^ "Rapid population growth gives Montana 2nd US House seat". AP News. April 26, 2021.
  3. ^ a b Wulfhorst, Emma (November 12, 2021). "MT redistricting commission officially approves final map". NBC Montana. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  4. ^ Wilson, Reid (April 29, 2021). "Trump Interior secretary Zinke files to run for Congress, again". The Hill. Retrieved April 29, 2021.
  5. ^ Dennison, Mike (June 3, 2021). "Zinke's 2022 campaign for MT congressional seat is official". KTVH-DT. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
  6. ^ "Montana's Congressional District 1: Zinke the person to beat in 2022?". November 28, 2021.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "2022 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g Georgiou, Maritsa (May 5, 2021). "List of people considering a run for Montana's regained U.S. House seat is long". KECI. Retrieved May 6, 2021.
  9. ^ "Olszewski second Republican in race for MT's new U.S. House seat". KTVH. July 1, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  10. ^ Wilson, Sam (October 22, 2021). "Kalispell pastor running as Republican in Montana's new House district". Helena Independent Record.
  11. ^ Warren, Bradley (July 9, 2021). "Former President Trump endorses Ryan Zinke for Montana's new congressional seat". kulr8.com. Retrieved July 26, 2021.
  12. ^ "Endorsements". February 14, 2022. Retrieved July 14, 2022.
  13. ^ a b Dennison, Mike (November 28, 2021). "Montana's Congressional District 1: Zinke the person to beat in 2022?". www.ktvh.com. KTVH-DT. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
  14. ^ Axelrod, Tal (January 5, 2022). "GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund unveils first midterm endorsements". www.thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved January 5, 2022.
  15. ^ Dennison, Mike (January 14, 2022). "Rep. Rosendale's first year in Congress: Plenty of 'no' votes". KTVH-DT. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  16. ^ a b c d "Montana House Primary Election Results". 2022 Primary Election. Montana Secretary of State. June 7, 2022. Retrieved June 8, 2022.
  17. ^ "Democrat Monica Tranel running for state's new U.S. House seat". Independent-Record. July 7, 2021. Retrieved July 7, 2021.
  18. ^ Michels, Holly (July 13, 2021). "Democrat Cora Neumann running for Montana's new U.S. House seat". www.helenair.com. Retrieved August 18, 2021.
  19. ^ "Democrat Tom Winter running for U.S. House". www.helenair.com. November 3, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  20. ^ "Bishop Leaves Race for Montana's Western U.S. House Seat". www.usnews.com. U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved November 18, 2021.
  21. ^ "Shane Morigeau announces candidacy for Montana Senate District 48". Char-Koosta News. Shane For Montana. July 14, 2021.
  22. ^ Dennison, Mike (July 2, 2021). "2 more candidates enter race for Montana's new seat in Congress". www.missoulacurrent.com. Missoula Current. Retrieved July 30, 2021.
  23. ^ Kimbeil-Sannit, Arren (July 26, 2021). "Former Gov. Schweitzer endorses Monica Tranel for Congress". missoulacurrent.com. Retrieved September 17, 2021.
  24. ^ a b Weinberg, Dan; Jopek, Mike (November 18, 2021). "Letters: Former Montana state legislators back Monica Tranel for Congress". The Missoula Current. Retrieved April 25, 2022.
  25. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New Endorsements for Congress". www.lcv.org. July 5, 2022.
  26. ^ a b c "Montana unions endorse independent Buchanan over Democrat Ronning". August 26, 2022.
  27. ^ Khanna, Ro [@RoKhanna] (April 6, 2022). "Proud to endorse @WinterForMT who is for creating high wage jobs in Montana in manufacturing, tech, and renewable energy. Montana can provide wind to a lot of the West Coast if we invest in the smart grid. A bold progressive voice with fresh ideas!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 6, 2022. Retrieved December 14, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  29. ^ "Join the Bold Progressive Movement!". Progressive Change Campaign Committee (BoldProgressives.org).
  30. ^ "Libertarian John Lamb offers 'a third choice' in the western district House race". October 18, 2022.
  31. ^ YouTube
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  33. ^ a b "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  34. ^ a b "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 11, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2021.
  35. ^ a b "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  36. ^ a b "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
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  38. ^ a b "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  39. ^ a b "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  40. ^ a b "The Economist's 2022 House Election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 28, 2022.
  41. ^ a b MSU Billings
  42. ^ Victoria Research (D)
  43. ^ Impact Research (D)
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  47. ^ "Austin for Congress". Pharm406.
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  53. ^ Ragar, Shaylee (May 9, 2022). "Mark Sweeney, state senator and U.S. House candidate has died". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
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  55. ^ "Democrat Jack Ballard drops out of Montana US House race | KECI". February 24, 2022.
  56. ^ "2022 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  57. ^ "Campaign finance, abortion rights at center of Libertarian Rankin's run for 2nd District seat". October 14, 2022.
  58. ^ "Gary Buchanan joins U.S. House race in bid to unseat Matt Rosendale". Independent Record. March 16, 2022. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  59. ^ "Politics1 - Online Guide to Montana Elections, Candidates & Politics".
  60. ^ "Rosendale leads U.S. House race in donations with $900k". February 2022.
  61. ^ a b c d Dietrich, Eric (April 8, 2022). "Bipartisan old guard backs Gary Buchanan for Congress". montanafreepress.org. Montana Free Press. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  62. ^ a b Murray, David (September 29, 2022). "Independent Gary Buchanan visits Great Falls on campaign trying to find partisan gaps". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved November 27, 2022.
  63. ^ Geise, Susan (October 28, 2022). "Susan Good Geise: Gary Buchanan has the character and intelligence to act in our best interests". Independent Record. Retrieved November 27, 2022.
  64. ^ YouTube
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

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