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2020 Missouri gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2020 United States gubernatorial elections.

2020 Missouri gubernatorial election
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.75% Increase
 
Nominee Mike Parson Nicole Galloway
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,720,202 1,225,771
Percentage 57.11% 40.69%
Parson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Galloway:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Mike Parson
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike Parson
Republican

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The 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson ran for and was elected to a full term in office.[1] Parson was elected as lieutenant governor in 2016 but became governor on June 1, 2018, after incumbent Eric Greitens resigned under threat of impeachment by the state legislature. Parson declared his bid for a full term on September 8, 2019.[2] State Auditor Nicole Galloway, Missouri's only Democratic statewide officer and only female statewide officer, was the Democratic nominee and if elected, would have become Missouri's first female governor.

In October 2020, The Washington Post identified this state election as one of eight whose outcomes could affect partisan balance during post-census redistricting.[3]

Despite most news agencies characterizing the race as only leaning Republican, Mike Parson went on to win the election by a landslide of 16.4%, widely outperforming all election polling as well as justifying the former swing state's trend towards the GOP. He even exceeded Donald Trump's statewide victory margin in the concurrent presidential election, which was actually greater than that in neighboring Kansas for the first time in 104 years. Galloway suffered the largest margin of defeat for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Missouri since Betty Hearnes' 29-point loss in 1988. The 1988 election was also the last election until this one in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jim Neely
State officials

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Parson 		Eric
Greitens 		Other /
Undecided
March 31, 2020 Filing deadline, by which Greitens had not declared his candidacy
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Jan 29–30, 2020 1,155 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 22% 26%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[A] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 56% 30% 11%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Parson
  •   >90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   <40%
Republican primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Parson (incumbent) 511,566 74.93%
Republican Saundra McDowell 84,412 12.36%
Republican Jim Neely 59,514 8.72%
Republican Raleigh Ritter 27,264 3.99%
Total votes 682,756 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Eric Morrison, community leader and pastor[15]
  • Antoin Johnson[16]
  • Jimmie Matthews[16]
  • Robin Quaethem[16]

Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
Nicole Galloway
Federal politicians
Individuals
Organizations

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Galloway
  •   >90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Nicole Galloway 455,203 84.62%
Democratic Eric Morrison 32,403 6.02%
Democratic Jimmie Matthews 20,586 3.83%
Democratic Antoin Johnson 20,254 3.77%
Democratic Robin Quaethem 9,481 1.76%
Total votes 537,927 100.00%

Other candidates

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Libertarian Party

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Rik Combs, the Libertarian nominee

Nominee

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  • Rik Combs, U.S. Air Force veteran[16]

Results

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Libertarian primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Rik Combs 4,171 100.00%
Total votes 4,171 100.00%

Green Party

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Nominee

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Results

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Green primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jerome Bauer 862 100.00%
Total votes 862 100.00%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Lean R October 23, 2020
Inside Elections[27] Lean R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[29] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[30] Likely R October 28, 2020
RCP[31] Lean R November 2, 2020
270towin[32] Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Parson (R) 		Nicole
Galloway (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout October 28–29, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 50% 44% 5%[b]
Cygnal (R) October 18–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 48% 42% 10%[c]
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout October 14–15, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 51% 43% 6%[d]
YouGov September 24 – October 7, 2020 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 44% 7%[e]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] September 28 – October 2, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 48% –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout September 30 – October 1, 2020 980 (LV) ± 3% 51% 44% 5%[f]
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout September 16–17, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3% 52% 43% 5%[g]
We Ask America[permanent dead link] September 1–3, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 54% 41% 5%[h]
Trafalgar Group (R) August 26–28, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 51% 36% 13%[i]
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout August 12–13, 2020 1,112 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 43% 7%[j]
Saint Louis University Archived July 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine June 23 – July 1, 2020 900 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 39% 20%[k]
Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)[B] June 16–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% –
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout June 10–11, 2020 1,152 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 41% 9%
We Ask America Archived June 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine May 26–27, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 39% 15%[l]
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout April 28–29, 2020 1,356 (LV) ± 2.6% 52% 39% 9%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout March 11–12, 2020 1,241 (LV) – 52% 39% 7%
American Viewpoint (R)[A] January 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 54% 36% 7%
Human Agency/Missouri Scout December 20–24, 2019 415 (RV) ± 5% 51% 36% 13%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D) November 17–20, 2019 400 (RV) ± 5.0% 51% 35% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] November 14–15, 2019 921 (LV) – 45% 36% 19%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D) October 18–20, 2019 550 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 34% 16%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) October 9–10, 2019 1,451 (LV) ± 2.5% 53% 41% 6%
Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D) September 16–18, 2019 825 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 19%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) August 14–15, 2019 855 (LV) ± 3.3% 50% 39% 11%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) June 26–27, 2019 960 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 37% 13%
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) February 27, 2019 893 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 40% 9%
Hypothetical polling
Eric Greitens vs Nicole Galloway
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Nicole
Galloway (D) 		Other /
Undecided
American Viewpoint (R)[A] January 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) – 44% 45% 7%
Mike Parson vs Jason Kander
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Parson (R) 		Jason
Kander (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) February 27, 2019 893 (LV) ± 3.4% 51% 36% 13%
Mike Parson vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Parson (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Remington/Missouri Scout (R) February 27, 2019 893 (LV) ± 3.4% 52% 32% 16%

Endorsements

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Nicole Galloway (D)
Federal politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations

Results

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Missouri gubernatorial election, 2020[43][44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Parson (incumbent) 1,720,202 57.11% +5.97%
Democratic Nicole Galloway 1,225,771 40.69% −4.88%
Libertarian Rik Combs 49,067 1.63% +0.16%
Green Jerome Bauer 17,234 0.57% −0.18%
Write-in 13 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 3,012,287 100.0%
Turnout 3,026,028 69.75%
Registered electors 4,318,758
Republican hold

By congressional district

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Parson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[45]

District Parson Galloway Representative
1st 19% 78% Lacy Clay (116th Congress)
Cori Bush (117th Congress)
2nd 51% 48% Ann Wagner
3rd 66% 31% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66% 31% Vicky Hartzler
5th 40% 57% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 64% 34% Sam Graves
7th 70% 27% Billy Long
8th 76% 22% Jason Smith
State Senate districts results
State House districts results

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  3. ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  4. ^ Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  5. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  6. ^ Undecided with 5%
  7. ^ Undecided with 5%
  8. ^ Undecided with 5%
  9. ^ Combs (L) with 3%; Bauer (G) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  10. ^ Undecided with 7%
  11. ^ Undecided with 17%; "Other" with 3%
  12. ^ Undecided with 15%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Uniting Missouri is a PAC supporting Governor Mike Parson (R) in the 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election.
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Galloway's campaign.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association

References

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  1. ^ Clare Foran (May 29, 2018). "Embattled Missouri Governor Eric Greitens resigns amid scandals". CNN. Retrieved May 29, 2018.
  2. ^ a b Suntrup, Jack (September 8, 2019). "Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, a cattle-farming former sheriff, announces bid for 4-year term". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved September 8, 2019.
  3. ^ Phillips, Amber (October 2, 2020). "The state legislative battles to watch in 2020". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
  4. ^ Parks, MaryAlice (May 30, 2018). "Missouri governor to be replaced by longtime traditional politician". ABC News. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  5. ^ Gerber, Cameron (March 31, 2020). "Saundra McDowell files to run for governor, challenging Parson". The Missouri Times.
  6. ^ Erickson, Kurt (August 28, 2019). "State lawmaker announces plan to challenge Parson for GOP nomination for Missouri governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 30, 2019.
  7. ^ Governor, Raleigh Ritter For Missouri. "Raleigh Ritter". Raleigh Ritter For Missouri Governor.
  8. ^ Star, Jason Hancock and Lindsay Wise Kansas City. "Parson faces unrest among Missouri conservatives as he heads into 2020". Columbia Daily Tribune. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  9. ^ Suntrup, Kurt Erickson, Jack (January 19, 2020). "A Greitens comeback? Supporters of the ex-Missouri governor are hopeful". STLtoday.com. Retrieved January 9, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  10. ^ "Greitens 2020? Could former Gov. Greitens run for governor again?". KOMU.com. Archived from the original on February 19, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  11. ^ Hancock, Jason [@J_Hancock] (April 8, 2019). ". @MonettiforMO went on @PeteMundo show this morning to announce he will not challenge @GovParsonMO in the GOP primary for governor in 2020. He'll dissolve his exploratory committee. #MoLeg #MoGOv" (Tweet). Retrieved April 8, 2019 – via Twitter.
  12. ^ a b "Jim Neely for Missouri Governor 2020". Jim Neely. Archived from the original on July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 16, 2020.
  13. ^ a b c d "State of Missouri - State of Missouri - Primary Election, August 04, 2020". Missouri Secretary of State.
  14. ^ Lieb, David A. (August 12, 2019). "Democrat Galloway launches Missouri gubernatorial campaign". Associated Press News. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
  15. ^ "Eric Morrison for Missouri |". Archived from the original on January 24, 2021. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  16. ^ a b c d e "SOS, Missouri - Elections: Offices Filed in Candidate Filing". s1.sos.mo.gov.
  17. ^ Rosenbaum, Jason (December 4, 2018). "New Missouri Democratic vice chair says the party can attract both urban and rural voters". KSMU. Retrieved December 11, 2018.
  18. ^ Salter, Jim; Stafford, Margaret (July 28, 2019). "Jason Kander is back after quietly working through PTSD". Military Times. Associated Press. Retrieved August 6, 2019.
  19. ^ Raasch, Chuck (December 12, 2018). "McCaskill: I'll never run again, but I'll stay involved in politics". St. Louis Post Dispatch. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
  20. ^ a b c Suntrup, Jack (July 2, 2019). "Missouri lawmaker from Affton who considered run for governor backs Democratic auditor instead". stltoday.com. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
  21. ^ a b "Show-Me Senator Kamala Harris Sending Support To Missouri Lady Candidates". May 23, 2020. Retrieved January 9, 2021.
  22. ^ a b "State & Local". 3.14 Action. Archived from the original on June 15, 2020. Retrieved June 15, 2020.
  23. ^ a b Schriock, Stephanie (November 19, 2019). "EMILY's List Endorses Nicole Galloway for Missouri Governor". emilyslist.org. EMILY's List.
  24. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". NWPC. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  25. ^ a b Rodríguez, Yamelsie; Hill, Brandon (November 7, 2019). "Planned Parenthood Advocates and Votes Endorse Reproductive Health Champion Nicole Galloway for Missouri Governor". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes; Advocates of Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  26. ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings for October 23, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  27. ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  28. ^ "2020 Gubernatorial race ratings". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  29. ^ "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  30. ^ "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270towin.
  33. ^ "Biden endorses Nicole Galloway for Missouri governor. Here's why it matters". The Kansas City Star.
  34. ^ "Nicole Galloway for Missouri". Nicole Galloway for Missouri. Archived from the original on October 17, 2020. Retrieved October 17, 2020.
  35. ^ "Second Wave of 2020 Endorsements". Medium. September 25, 2020.
  36. ^ "Nicole Galloway Tops Week of Momentum with Endorsement From Sen. Elizabeth Warren". Democratic Governors Association. July 10, 2020.
  37. ^ "Former Missouri Governor Jay Nixon hopeful that Galloway will unseat his successor in November election". October 29, 2020.
  38. ^ "Join Pete Buttigeig in supporting Nicole Galloway!". ActBlue.
  39. ^ "KC mayor endorses Galloway over Parson for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. October 12, 2020.
  40. ^ "Nicole Galloway, CPA on Instagram: "You won't wanna miss this: Join me, @bravoandy, @karliekloss, and @derekblasberg on Monday for a virtual grassroots fundraiser for our…"". Instagram. Archived from the original on December 23, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2020.
  41. ^ "2020 Labor Endorsed Candidates". moaflcio.org. July 14, 2020.
  42. ^ Gerber, Cameron (July 23, 2020). "Galloway endorsed by national gun violence prevention group". The Missouri Times.
  43. ^ "All Results State of Missouri - State of Missouri - General Election, November 03, 2020". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  44. ^ "Statistiques" (PDF). www.sos.mo.gov. Retrieved December 18, 2020..
  45. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

Further reading

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[edit]
Official campaign websites
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