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2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2012 United States Senate election in Nevada
← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout57.1% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Dean Heller Shelley Berkley
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 457,656 446,080
Percentage 45.87% 44.71%
Heller:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Berkley:      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller[a]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dean Heller
Republican

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and the 2012 presidential election. The primary election was held June 12, 2012.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to his seat in May 2011 following the resignation of Senator John Ensign, was narrowly elected to his first full term over Representative Shelley Berkley, despite President Barack Obama carrying the state by 6.7% in the concurrent presidential election. As a result, Heller became the only Republican Senate candidate in 2012 to win in a state that was lost by the Republican presidential candidate. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in North Dakota. As of 2022, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Nevada.

Background

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Main article: John Ensign scandal

Ensign was reelected to the United States Senate in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former president Jimmy Carter, by a margin of 55–41%. His reelection campaign was expected to be complicated after it was revealed in 2009 that he had been involved in an extramarital affair with the wife of one of his campaign staffers, allegedly made payments to the woman's family and arranged work for her husband to cover himself.[2][3]

The Senate Ethics Committee was to investigate Ensign, and his poll numbers declined significantly.[4][5] There was speculation that he might resign before the election, but he initially said he would run for reelection.[6] On March 7, 2011, Ensign announced that he would not seek reelection,[7] and on April 22, he announced that he would resign effective May 3.[8]

Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval appointed U.S. Representative Dean Heller to fill the vacancy created by Ensign's resignation. Heller took office on May 9, 2011.[9]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator, former U.S. Representative, former Nevada Secretary of State and former state assemblyman[10][11]

Eliminated in primary

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  • Sherry Brooks, retired secretary[12]
  • Richard Charles[12]
  • Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate[12]
  • Carlo Poliak, sanitation worker and perennial candidate[12]
  • David Lory Vanderbeek, marriage and family therapist[12]

Declined

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sharron
Angle 		John
Chachas 		John
Ensign 		Dean
Heller 		Brian
Krolicki 		Sue
Lowden 		Danny
Tarkanian 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] January 3–5, 2011 400 ±4.9% 9% 5% 20% 30% 6% 12% 10% 8%

Appointment preference

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sue
Lowden 		Brian
Sandoval 		Danny
Tarkanian 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon/LVJR[16] October 8, 2009 4% 24% 14% 17% 17% 21%

Primaries with Ensign

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign 		Dean
Heller 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17] October 7–9, 2010 400 ±4.9% 45% 37% –– 18%
Public Policy Polling[15] January 3–5, 2011 400 ±4.9% 34% 52% –– 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign 		Brian
Krolicki 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17] October 7–9, 2010 400 ±4.9% 55% 27% –– 18%

Results

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Republican primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 88,958 86.3
Republican Sherry Brooks 5,356 5.2
None of These Candidates 3,358 3.3
Republican Eddie "In Liberty" Hamilton 2,628 2.6
Republican Richard Charles 2,295 2.2
Republican Carlo "Nakusa" Poliak 512 0.5
Total votes 103,107 100

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Shelley
Berkley 		Byron
Georgiou 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[24] April 21–24, 2011 300 ±5.7% 65% 8% –– 27%
Public Policy Polling[25] July 28–31, 2011 400 ±4.9% 71% 6% –– 23%

Results

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Results by county:
  Berkley—80-90%
  Berkley—70-80%
  Berkley—60-70%
  Berkley—50-60%
  Berkley—40-50%
Democratic primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Shelley Berkley 62,081 79.5
Democratic Nancy Price 4,210 5.4
Democratic Steve Brown 3,998 5.1
None of These Candidates 3,637 4.7
Democratic Barry Ellsworth 2,491 3.2
Democratic Louis Macias 1,714 2.2
Total votes 78,131 100

General election

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Candidates

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Debates

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The first Berkley-Heller debate was on September 27, 2012. They met again in Las Vegas on October 11 and on Jon Ralston's "Face to Face" program on October 15. External links

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Dean Heller (R) $8,447,489 $6,510,874 $1,936,618 $0
Shelley Berkley (D) $8,779,074 $8,947,424 $924,918 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

Top contributors

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[28]

Shelly Berkley Contribution Dean Heller Contribution
EMILY's List $93,049 Las Vegas Sands $43,750
NORPAC $59,750 MGM Resorts International $35,500
MGM Resorts International $53,700 Alliance Resource Partners $34,500
DaVita Inc. $49,300 Crow Holdings $30,000
Diamond Resorts $44,000 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
Cantor Fitzgerald $27,000 Brady Industries $25,000
Caesars Entertainment $26,000 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
Fresenius Medical Care $24,500 Wynn Resorts $22,500
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck $23,650 Southwest Gas $21,800
Station Casinos $20,200 Bank of America $20,500

Top industries

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Shelley Berkley Contribution Dean Heller Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $607,407 Leadership PACs $379,718
Pro-Israel $384,580 Retired $300,560
Health Professionals $369,954 Financial Institutions $217,084
Women's Issues $309,817 Real Estate $206,362
Leadership PACs $292,500 Casinos/Gambling $205,832
Retired $281,490 Oil & Gas $187,500
Real Estate $261,779 Insurance $182,155
Financial Institutions $228,393 Lobbyists $159,812
Casinos/Gambling $227,350 Mining $149,745
Lobbyists $175,147 Health Professionals $132,450

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Tossup November 1, 2012
Inside Elections[30] Tilt R November 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Lean R November 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics[32] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

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Shelly Berkley vs. Dean Heller

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dean
Heller (R) 		Shelley
Berkley (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 51% 38% — 16%
Public Policy Polling[34] April 21–24, 2011 491 ±4.4% 47% 43% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 28–31, 2011 601 ±4.0% 46% 43% — 12%
Public Policy Polling[36] October 20–23, 2011 500 ±4.4% 45% 45% — 10%
Cannon Survey Center[37] December 12–20, 2011 600 ±4.0% 43% 44% — 6.9%
Rasmussen Reports[38] March 19, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 40% 2% 11%
Public Policy Polling[39] March 29 – April 1, 2012 553 ±4.2% 46% 43% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports[40] April 30, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 40% 2% 8%
NBC News/Marist[41] May 22–24, 2012 1,040 ±3.0% 46% 44% — 10%
Public Policy Polling[42] June 7–10, 2012 500 ±4.4% 44% 43% — 13%
Magellan Strategies[43] July 16–17, 2012 665 ±3.8% 45% 42% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports[44] July 24, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 42% 2% 5%
LVRJ/Survey USA[45] August 16–21, 2012 869 ±3.4% 44% 39% 9% 8%
Public Policy Polling[46] August 23–26, 2012 831 ±3.4% 47% 45% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports[47] September 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 42% 41% 4% 12%
Public Policy Polling[48] September 18–20, 2012 501 ±4.4% 44% 48% — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[49] September 23–25, 2012 984 ±3.1% 49% 43% 1% 6%
We Ask America[50] September 25–27, 2012 1,152 ±3.1% 45% 45% — 10%
Gravis Marketing[51] October 3, 2012 1,006 ±3.1% 53% 36% — 12%
Precision Opinion[52] October 6, 2012 1,521 ±2.5% 45% 43% — 12%
LVRJ/Survey USA[53] October 3–8, 2012 1,222 ±2.9% 47% 39% 8% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[54] October 8, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 45% 3% 4%
Suffolk[55] October 6–9, 2012 500 ±4.4% 40% 37% 7% 14%
Public Policy Polling[56] October 8–10, 2012 594 ±4.0% 47% 44% 4% 5%
LVRJ/Survey USA[57] October 11–15, 2012 806 ±3.5% 46% 40% 8% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[58] October 15, 2012 500 ±4.5% 50% 43% 4% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[59] October 23, 2012 500 ±4.5% 50% 45% 1% 4%
Public Policy Polling[60] October 22–24, 2012 636 ±3.9% 44% 44% 7% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[61] October 23–24, 2012 1,042 ±2.8% 48% 45% 2% 6%
LVRJ/SurveyUSA[62] October 23–29, 2012 1,212 ±2.9% 46% 40% 10% 4%
Public Policy Polling[63] November 3–4, 2012 750 ±3.6% 48% 46% 4% 1%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dean
Heller (R) 		Byron
Georgiou (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[34] April 21–24, 2011 491 ±4.4% 52% 28% –– 20%
Magellan Strategies (R)[64] June 21–22, 2011 720 ±3.65% 46% 33% –– 21%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 28–31, 2011 601 ±4.0% 48% 31% –– 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dean
Heller (R) 		Oscar
Goodman (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 45% 38% –– 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dean
Heller (R) 		Catherine
Cortez Masto (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 46% 37% –– 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Dean
Heller (R) 		Ross
Miller (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 46% 34% –– 21%

with John Ensign

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign (R) 		Shelley
Berkley (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] January 11–12, 2010 763 ±3.6% 49% 40% –– 11%
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 42% 45% –– 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign (R) 		Catherine
Cortez Masto (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[66] July 16–18, 2010 630 ±3.9% 48% 38% –– 14%
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 42% 44% –– 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign (R) 		Oscar
Goodman (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] January 11–12, 2010 763 ±3.6% 43% 41% –– 16%
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 35% 45% –– 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign (R) 		Ross
Miller (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] January 11–12, 2010 763 ±3.6% 47% 36% –– 18%
Public Policy Polling[33] January 3–5, 2011 932 ±3.2% 39% 40% –– 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Ensign (R) 		Dina
Titus (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[66] July 16–18, 2010 630 ±3.9% 51% 41% –– 8%

Results

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United States Senate election in Nevada, 2012[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 457,656 45.87% −9.49%
Democratic Shelley Berkley 446,080 44.71% +3.72%
Independent American David Lory VanDerBeek 48,792 4.89% +3.56%
None of These Candidates 45,277 4.54% +3.13%
Total votes 997,805 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Heller won 2 of 4 congressional districts.[68]

District Berkley Heller Representative
1st 58.57% 31.6% Dina Titus
2nd 34.27% 55.83% Mark Amodei
3rd 43.34% 47.93% Joe Heck
4th 48.26% 42.38% Steven Horsford

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ In May 2011, Heller was appointed by Governor Brian Sandoval to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator John Ensign.

References

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  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. ^ Lichtblau, Eric; Lipton, Eric (October 2, 2009). "Senator's Aid to Mistress's Husband Raises Ethics Flags". The New York Times.
  3. ^ Cillizza, Chris (July 9, 2009). "Ensign Acknowledges Mistress Payment". Washington Post. Archived from the original on October 10, 2012.
  4. ^ Raju, Manu; Bresnahan, John (February 1, 2011). "John Ensign running, despite ethics investigation". The Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2011.
  5. ^ BALL, MOLLY (July 19, 2009). "New poll reveals Ensign's status sinking, But most Nevadans still say Republican senator should not resign". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Stephens Media, LLC. Retrieved July 20, 2009.
  6. ^ Mascaro, Lisa (July 14, 2009). "Ensign to stay in Senate, seek reelection". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved July 14, 2009.
  7. ^ a b Yurkanin, Justin (March 7, 2011). "Senator John Ensign announces he will not seek reelection". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved March 7, 2011.
  8. ^ "Sen. Ensign says he will resign May 3". CNN. April 22, 2011. Retrieved April 23, 2011.
  9. ^ "Heller takes Senate oath". Politico. May 9, 2011.
  10. ^ Meyers, Laura (November 7, 2010). "2012 ELECTION: Senate race field already looking full". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved November 30, 2010.
  11. ^ Ralston, Jon (November 10, 2010). "GOP may be setting its sights on Ensign". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved December 15, 2010.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g h Myers, Laura (June 3, 2012). "2012 PRIMARY ELECTION: U.S. SENATE". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved June 12, 2012.
  13. ^ "Angle in race for Heller's House seat", ReviewJournal.com
  14. ^ Krolicki endorses Heller, mulls House bid by David Catanese at POLITICO.com
  15. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  16. ^ Mason-Dixon/LVJR
  17. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ a b "Official Results of the 2012 Primary Election". Secretary of State of Nevada. Retrieved September 15, 2012.
  19. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (April 14, 2011). "Shelley Berkley Will Run for Senate in Nevada". Roll Call. Retrieved June 12, 2012.
  20. ^ Ralston, Jon (January 11, 2012). "Renewable energy company founder will run as Democrat for U.S. Senate in Nevada". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  21. ^ Tetreault, Steve. "Entrepreneur files to oppose Berkley in Senate race". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  22. ^ Coleman, Kyle. "Green Energy Pioneer Barry Ellsworth Announces Nevada US Senate Run Against Corrupt Career Politician Shelley Berkley". yahoo.news. Retrieved January 31, 2012.
  23. ^ Damon, Anjeanette (August 10, 2011). "Georgiou abandons U.S. Senate bid, clears way for Berkley on Democratic ticket". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved June 12, 2012.
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ "Meet the Candidates: David Lory Van Der Beek". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved June 12, 2012.
  27. ^ "Browse data". FEC.gov.
  28. ^ Nevada Senate 2012 Race, OpenSecrets
  29. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  30. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  31. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  32. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  33. ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
  34. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  35. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ Cannon Survey Center
  38. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ NBC News/Marist
  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Magellan Strategies
  44. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  45. ^ LVRJ/Survey USA
  46. ^ Public Policy Polling
  47. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  48. ^ Public Policy Polling
  49. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  50. ^ We Ask America
  51. ^ Gravis Marketing
  52. ^ Precision Opinion
  53. ^ LVRJ/Survey USA
  54. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  55. ^ Suffolk Archived October 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  56. ^ Public Policy Polling
  57. ^ LVRJ/Survey USA
  58. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  59. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  60. ^ Public Policy Polling
  61. ^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  62. ^ LVRJ/SurveyUSA
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ Magellan Strategies (R) Archived July 12, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  65. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling [permanent dead link‍]
  66. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
  67. ^ "Nevada General Election 2012 - U.S. Senate". Secretary of State of Nevada.
  68. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
[edit]

Official campaign sites

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